Sharply bifurcated: hotel REITs (MAR, HLT) and short-term rental (ABNB) are at or near 52-week highs with strong-up golden crosses — the premium leisure/business travel story is working. Cruise lines (RCL, CCL, NCLH) and OTAs (BKNG, EXPE) are in the middle — bouncing off lows but structurally weak. NCLH is the laggard with a death cross and approaching oversold territory. War-ends thesis is most relevant to travel-leisure: a ceasefire removes the geopolitical risk premium that's been suppressing European/Middle East travel demand.

MAR ($367.15, RSI 62.2, strong-up, golden cross, -3.4% from 52wk high) Marriott is the cleanest expression of the premium hospitality thesis. Strong-up trend, golden cross, 22.9% above SMA200, 30D +12.35%, 3M +16.15%. RevPAR is holding in premium/luxury tiers globally; business travel recovery post-COVID structural. The war-ends thesis gives it optionality on Middle East/Mediterranean leisure markets reactivating. At -3.4% from 52wk high, this isn't cheap, but it's working.

HLT ($335.63, RSI 64.2, strong-up, golden cross, -2.65% from 52wk high) Hilton is nearly identical in setup to Marriott. RSI 64.2 is slightly higher but not extended. 17.6% above SMA200. 30D +10.71%, 3M +13.01%. Hilton's franchise-heavy asset-light model gives it superior margin resilience vs. MAR. Both are Hold/Accumulate-on-dip names with the same thesis.

ABNB ($142.82, RSI 64.4, strong-up, golden cross, -3.0% from 52wk high) Airbnb is the outlier — it's not really a war-ends play, it's a secular short-term rental platform that benefits from any normalization in travel. The 3M +7.07% is quieter than hotels, but RSI 64.4 and near-ATH confirm momentum. ABNB's war-ends leverage comes from European/Mediterranean home rentals — these markets decompressed as tourists avoided conflict-adjacent zones. A real ceasefire could unlock outperformance vs. hotels.

EXPE ($251.44, RSI 53.5, trend "up", death cross, -17.2% from 52wk high) Expedia is interesting — it has a "up" trend reading despite a death cross, which means it's in a contested recovery. 30D +6.43%, 3M -6.50%. The death cross is a warning label on near-term momentum. Expedia's meta-search and OTA business benefits from volume normalization more than pricing power; cheaper end of the market vs. BKNG. At -17.2% from 52wk high, there's room to recover if macro clears.

RCL ($282.31, RSI 51.9, strong-down, death cross, -22.9% from 52wk high) Royal Caribbean had a monster 3-year run (+366% over 3Y). It's now digesting — strong-down trend, death cross, -22.9% from 52wk high, essentially flat on 30D (+0.53%). The war-ends thesis is most bullish here for Mediterranean/Caribbean itineraries, but the debt load and structural sensitivity to fuel costs means it needs multiple clean macro signals to re-rate. RSI 51.9 is neutral — not screaming entry.

CCL ($27.17, RSI 50.0, strong-down, death cross, -20.2% from 52wk high) Carnival is the most leveraged and lowest-quality balance sheet in the group. Strong-down trend, death cross, -20.2% from 52wk high, 5-year return is essentially 0% (+0.11%). The war-ends thesis matters here because European routes (where Carnival has heavy exposure) were most impacted by conflict-adjacent geopolitical risk. But owning CCL requires a high conviction ceasefire call + fuel cost tailwind. Not a casual position.

BKNG ($180.25, RSI 51.3, weak-up, death cross, -22.8% from 52wk high) Booking Holdings is the surprise underperformer — historically the highest-quality OTA and near-ATH a year ago, now -22.8% from 52wk high with a death cross. 3M -11.57%, 1Y -6.15% (negative absolute return). The European revenue concentration is a liability here — BKNG is the most exposed major OTA to the geopolitical risk premium in European/Mediterranean travel. Ironically, this makes it the highest-leverage name for a war-ends catalyst: if Europe re-opens fully, BKNG snaps back hardest. But until that catalyst arrives, avoid.

NCLH ($18.51, RSI 41.8, strong-down, death cross, -31.9% from 52wk high) Norwegian is the weakest chart in the group. -31.9% from 52wk high, -10.97% on 3M, -8.46% on 30D with RSI now at 41.8 and falling. Death cross, strong-down trend, -16.7% below SMA200. The 5-year return is -37.9%. Norwegian carries the heaviest debt burden and most speculative demand profile. RSI is approaching the 35-40 zone where a bounce becomes statistically likely, but this is a thesis-driven trade only — don't buy without conviction on ceasefire timing.

This is the cleanest war-ends signal in the three scans written today:

• Quality leisure (MAR, HLT, ABNB) re-rated and are now near ATH — the playbook worked here
• Cruise lines (RCL, CCL, NCLH) did not follow through — structurally weaker, higher debt sensitivity
• OTAs (BKNG, EXPE) are mixed; BKNG's Europe exposure made it a laggard, creating a potential catch-up trade IF a real ceasefire lands

The divergence between hotels and cruises is informative: the market priced in near-term leisure demand recovery (hotels) but not multi-week committed bookings (cruises) — which suggests continued uncertainty about the sustainability of peace signals. If the ceasefire narrative advances materially, cruise lines and BKNG are the highest-leverage expressions, but they require the highest conviction.

MAR and HLT accelerated — +10-12% on 30D — and are at or near 52wk highs. This is the clearest "working" signal in the war-ends playbook. ABNB also held near ATH. Meanwhile, the cruise lines drifted lower (NCLH -8.46% 30D, CCL -5.66% 7D) and BKNG continues to lag. The 16-day period since the last scan saw the premium leisure flight accelerate while the recovery/speculation plays stalled. New money should follow the momentum (MAR/HLT) or wait for oversold entries in the recovery names (NCLH/BKNG) — not both.

• Is BKNG's underperformance about European geopolitics specifically, or is something structural happening in the OTA model?
• Do MAR/HLT have room to run further from ATH, or is it time to take profits on the war-ends thesis winners?
• Should cruise lines (RCL, CCL, NCLH) be split into their own scan given the different risk profile vs. hotels/OTAs?