Middle-of-the-band tape — no extreme on either side. Hotels are the clean trend-hold leaders: MAR and HLT both strong-up + golden cross + well above SMA200, neither extended (RSI 48-58). Cruise lines (RCL/CCL/NCLH) are mid-RSI but all carry death crosses and sit 12-23% off highs — recovering, not confirmed. OTAs split: BKNG is the broken name (downtrend, below SMA200, -23% from high) while EXPE/ABNB recover. Nothing oversold, nothing parabolic — this is a "hold quality, watch the laggards" group.

Latest bar 2026-06-25. All numbers from precomputed summaries/travel-leisure.json.

CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT / clean trend-hold (strong-up + golden cross): MAR (RSI 48.4, strong-up, golden cross, +18.6% vs SMA200, -7.5% from high, but pulled -2.0% below SMA20 this week) — the best setup: a healthy uptrend currently in a constructive pullback, lowest RSI of the quality names. HLT (RSI 58.2, strong-up, golden cross, +15.5% vs SMA200, -3.9% from high) — same trade, slightly higher RSI, sitting on SMA20. ABNB (RSI 59.5, strong-up, golden cross, +10.1% vs SMA200, only -3.2% from high) — clean and near its high; hold, room is thinner.

Recovering but UNCONFIRMED / Watch (mid-RSI + death cross): RCL (RSI 65.5, up, death cross, +21.2% 30D, -12.0% from high), EXPE (RSI 62.1, up, death cross, +13.9% 30D, -16.6% from high), NCLH (RSI 64.4, weak-up, death cross, +22.3% 30D, sitting exactly on SMA200, -23.1% from high), CCL (RSI 52.7, up, death cross, on SMA200, -15.6% from high). All four are bouncing hard on momentum but still carry death-cross flags and sit well off highs — recoveries, not confirmed trend-holds. Wait for a golden-cross flip / SMA200 reclaim.

BROKEN / AVOID: BKNG (RSI 61.2, downtrend regime, weak-up trend, death cross, -5.4% BELOW SMA200, -23.5% from high, -20.8% 1y, -41.6% 1y alpha) — the only structurally broken name. RSI bounced but the trend, SMA200 position, and trailing returns all say avoid; not a falling knife (RSI mid-60s) but a downtrend rally, not an entry.

OVERSOLD-QUALITY: None. Lowest RSI is MAR at 48.4 (which is the constructive-pullback entry, not a washout).

EXTENDED/TRIM: None. Highest RSI is RCL at 65.5 — no name is overbought.

• Hotels separated as the quality leaders — MAR/HLT/ABNB are the only three strong-up + golden-cross names; MAR's -4.4% week pulled RSI to 48.4, opening the cleanest entry.
• Cruise lines ripping on momentum — RCL +21.2% 30D, NCLH +22.3% 30D — but every cruise name still carries a death cross and sits 12-23% off highs.
• NCLH and CCL both sitting exactly on SMA200 (0.0% / +2.2%) — the make-or-break level for whether the cruise bounce becomes a trend.
• BKNG is the broken outlier — below SMA200, downtrend regime, -20.8% trailing 1y; RSI bounce doesn't fix the structure.

• Do NCLH and CCL hold their SMA200 retests, or roll back over? (decides whether the cruise bounce is real)
• Is BKNG's underperformance (-20.8% 1y) an AI-disintermediation overhang vs the rest of the group, or company-specific? (needs research, not run here)