Travel & Leisure Scan
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Travel & Leisure Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 22 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-05-29-travel-leisure.md
Travel bouncing broad — hotels (MAR/HLT) leading with strong-up golden cross structures near 52wk highs; cruise names recovering sharply after deep drawdowns but still in death cross; OTAs (BKNG/EXPE/ABNB) lagging in broken downtrends.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Bifurcated — hotels strong, cruises bouncing, OTAs structurally weak |
| Key insight | MAR/HLT in golden cross near 52wk highs (+4-6%); NCLH +11.95% 7D but still -32% from high and death cross; BKNG down -28% from high with RSI only 52 — broken structure, no entry |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wk Hi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR | $375.60 | 60.8 | +4.1% | +4.54% | +4.05% | +13.88% | -3.29% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| HLT | $327.66 | 54.7 | +2.4% | +5.88% | +1.15% | +7.55% | -4.96% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| RCL | $284.63 | 59.7 | +7.0% | +8.46% | +7.91% | -4.89% | -22.34% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| CCL | $28.06 | 60.0 | +7.9% | +7.67% | +6.49% | -3.11% | -17.54% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| NCLH | $18.34 | 57.0 | +9.2% | +11.95% | +0.88% | -17.31% | -32.52% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| BKNG | $167.43 | 52.7 | +3.1% | +6.44% | -0.55% | +0.37% | -28.32% | strong-down | ⚠️ Caution |
| ABNB | $133.31 | 46.0 | -1.8% | +1.37% | -5.02% | +0.04% | -9.47% | weak-down | 🔍 Watch |
| EXPE | $225.79 | 47.4 | -0.7% | +5.50% | -8.90% | +6.34% | -25.68% | strong-down | ⚠️ Caution |
Tier Analysis
Strong Hotels (RSI 54–61, golden cross, near 52wk highs):
- MAR (60.8): The sector's cleanest chart — strong-up, golden cross, only -3.3% from 52wk high, +13.9% 3M. Premium brand, fee-income model. Fully priced but thesis intact.
- HLT (54.7): Same profile as MAR — golden cross, strong-up, -5% from 52wk high. Slightly cheaper RSI entry. +7.6% 3M recovery well underway.
Cruise Recovery (RSI 57–60, death cross, elevated from lows):
- RCL (59.7): +8.5% 7D, +7.9% 30D — rebounding from tariff/macro hit. Death cross still active, -22% from 52wk high. RSI 59.7 is getting extended for a dead-cross name; watch $270 for support.
- CCL (60.0): Similar to RCL — +7.7% 7D, death cross, -17.5% from high. RSI 60 on a death-cross name is approaching chase territory.
- NCLH (57.0): Biggest 7D mover at +11.95%, but worst structural position — -32.5% from 52wk high, death cross, -17.3% 3M. Highest beta / highest risk. RSI still mid-range at 57.
Structurally Weak OTAs (RSI 46–53, death cross / strong-down trend):
- BKNG (52.7): Death cross, -28% from 52wk high, -24% 1Y. RSI 52 looks neutral but structure is broken. 7D bounce (+6.4%) looks like a dead-cat on the death cross; no add.
- EXPE (47.4): Death cross, -8.9% 30D, -25.7% from high. RSI approaching neutral but structural trend strongly down. Wait.
- ABNB (46.0): Golden cross (structurally better than BKNG/EXPE) but weak-down trend, -5% 30D, -9.5% from high. RSI 46 — closest to a neutral-to-watch setup in the OTA group.
Entry Zones
WATCHING (RSI 40–60, mixed structure)
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB | $133.31 | <$128 | 46.0 | -5.02% | 🔍 Watch | Best OTA structure (golden cross); needs RSI drop to 35-40 for real entry |
| NCLH | $18.34 | Pullback to $16-17 | 57.0 | +0.88% | 🔍 Watch | Highest beta cruise play; -32% from high; wait for RSI reset before adding |
| RCL | $284.63 | Pullback to $265-270 | 59.7 | +7.91% | 🔍 Watch | Death cross — momentum bounce only; entry on RSI reset, not here |
HOLD — Don't Chase, Don't Sell
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR | $375.60 | Hold | 60.8 | +4.05% | 🔒 Hold | Golden cross, near ATH; quality compounder, no add at RSI 60 |
| HLT | $327.66 | Hold | 54.7 | +1.15% | 🔒 Hold | Golden cross, -5% from high; best add on dip to $310 range |
AVOID — Broken Structure
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | $167.43 | Wait | 52.7 | -0.55% | ⚠️ Caution | Death cross + -28% from high + -24% 1Y; RSI neutral but no catalyst evident |
| EXPE | $225.79 | Wait | 47.4 | -8.90% | ⚠️ Caution | Strong-down trend, death cross, -25.7% from high; wait for structural turn |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | MAR, HLT | Golden cross near 52wk highs; sector leaders; no add until pullback |
| 🔍 WATCH | RCL, CCL | Death cross bounce getting extended; wait for RSI reset before adding |
| 🔍 WATCH | NCLH | Highest-beta cruise; -32% from high; best entry on pullback to $16-17 |
| 🔍 WATCH | ABNB | Best OTA structure (golden cross); entry if RSI drops to 35-40 |
| ⚠️ AVOID | BKNG, EXPE | Broken structure (death cross + strong-down trend); no thesis catalyst |
What Changed
- Hotels (MAR/HLT) at 52wk highs — sector leadership confirmed; thesis of premium travel demand holding through macro noise
- Cruise names +7-12% 7D — sharp bounce from tariff-lows but all still in death cross; CCL/RCL RSI now approaching extended (60)
- NCLH biggest 7D mover (+11.95%) — but still -32% from 52wk high and -17% on 3M; momentum not thesis
- BKNG/EXPE still in broken downtrends — OTA structural weakness persists despite broad travel bounce; death cross + negative 1Y alpha
- ABNB outperforming OTA peers — only one with golden cross in the group; -9.5% from high vs. -25-28% for BKNG/EXPE
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