the two real bear cases for the photonics supercycle (laser oversupply vs VCSEL-over-SiPh)

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the two real bear cases for the photonics supercycle (laser oversupply vs VCSEL-over-SiPh)

Tracked-Follow crux pressure-tests our own optical thesis: the two risks to $CIEN/$AAOI/$COHR/$LITE are laser oversupply and VCSELs displacing silicon-photonics for scale-up. Worth reading as the skeptical case on optical-supercycle, not a pump.

Open on X @crux_capital_ (Gaetano)
Gaetano✓ @Gaetano2026
Jul 2

Some thoughts on Photonics... $SIVE $CIEN $AAOI $COHR $LITE etc. Whether the risk is laser oversupply Or VSCELs used for scale up over SiPh The first train of thought usually goes to... who is directly exposed to these risks? > Who is banking on a continued supply/demand

@crux_capital_ — the two real bear cases for the photonics supercycle (laser oversupply vs VCSEL-over-SiPh)

Why it's worth your time

Tracked-Follow crux pressure-tests our own optical thesis: the two risks to $CIEN/$AAOI/$COHR/$LITE are laser oversupply and VCSELs displacing silicon-photonics for scale-up. Worth reading as the skeptical case on optical-supercycle, not a pump.

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