Biotech Scan
Biotech Scan
Data as-of 2026-07-10 close.
Biotech round-tripped hard. The two names that were "the most extreme in the whole dataset" ten sessions ago — MRNA (RSI 81.9 → 54.8) and VRTX (RSI 81.6 → 53.1) — both gave back most of their run, MRNA down 16.5% and VRTX down 8.3% in price. The gene-editing cohort that "broke out together" (NTLA, CRSP, RXRX, EDIT, ILMN) broke back down together just as fast, led by NTLA's -20.3% and IONS' -22.7% collapse into oversold territory (RSI 31.1, the one name flagged for a fetch gap — data 07-09). Nothing in the sector screens as truly oversold (RSI<30) or truly overbought (RSI>75) right now — the whole board compressed into a 31-71 RSI band. AMGN, GILD, TMO remain the steadiest large-cap accumulate names, unchanged for three scans running.
Source: biotech-scan.json. Latest bar 2026-07-10 (IONS on 2026-07-09 — fetch-failed tail, price/RSI slightly stale). Prior scan: 2026-07-07-biotech-scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Sector-wide cooldown from parabolic — no name is RSI<30 or RSI>75; last scan's two most extreme names (MRNA, VRTX) both round-tripped hard |
| Leaders | KYMR (RSI 70.7, +43.9% 30D, still the frothiest survivor); IQV (RSI 68.3, steady +14.8% 30D); RARE (RSI 68.1, price held flat while RSI cooled 8 points — digestion, not breakdown) |
| Laggards | IONS (RSI 31.1, -22.7% since last scan, worst mover in the sector, data 07-09); NTLA (RSI 42.2, -20.3%); LEGN (RSI 41.3, -25.4% 30D, still weak-down) |
| Key insight | The gene-editing cohort (NTLA, CRSP, RXRX, EDIT, ILMN) that rerated together as a group last scan just unwound together — same cohort behavior, opposite direction. Treat it as one basket, not five separate calls. |
What's Going On
Ten sessions ago this sector had two names above RSI 80 and a five-stock momentum cluster running hot. That's gone. MRNA and VRTX — the two "most extreme" names last cycle — are both back to mid-50s RSI after double-digit price pullbacks (MRNA -16.5%, VRTX -8.3%). The gene-editing basket (NTLA, CRSP, RXRX, EDIT, ILMN) that moved together on the way up moved together on the way down: NTLA alone is -20.3% since the last scan, and RXRX and CRSP both dropped double digits too. IONS is the standout laggard, down 22.7% into the sector's only sub-35 RSI print — its bar is dated 2026-07-09 (a fetch gap), so treat the exact numbers as a day stale.
Not everything cooled the same way. ABBV, RARE, PTGX, KYMR all held roughly flat on price while RSI compressed 5-15 points — that's digestion, the same "resting, not breaking" pattern the desk flagged for ABBV/DHR/TMO last cycle. AMGN, GILD, TMO barely moved at all and remain the cleanest, least-drama large caps in the scan.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-07)
- MRNA and VRTX both round-tripped from parabolic. MRNA: RSI 81.9→54.8, price $81.80→$68.27 (-16.5%), still +76.7% vs VWAP but down from +114.7%. VRTX: RSI 81.6→53.1, price $529.59→$485.39 (-8.3%). Both were flagged "don't chase, treat as exit/trim" last scan — that call paid off.
- The gene-editing cohort broke down as a unit. NTLA (RSI 70.7→42.2, price -20.3%), CRSP (69.6→45.8, -13.8%), RXRX (68.4→52.0, -10.1%), EDIT (70.8→54.5, -10.7%), ILMN (73.8→64.9, -2.1%, the mildest of the five). Same cohort that rerated together on 06-26→07-07 gave it back on 07-07→07-11.
- IONS is the sector's worst mover. RSI 70.7→31.1, price $83.18→$64.27 (-22.7%) — the biggest single-name reversal in the scan. Its bar is dated 07-09 (fetch gap), so this may under- or overstate the current level slightly.
- ISRG's recovery stalled and reversed. After two scans of climbing off a broken low (RSI 41.6→59.9), it dropped back to RSI 45.0 on a -6.0% price move. The "watch for the golden cross" call from last scan didn't play out — still
strong-down DC. - LABU, XBI, IBB, IBBQ, RARE, PTGX, KYMR all cooled RSI 8-15 points while giving back only 0-4% in price — classic digestion after an extended run, not a breakdown. LABU is still the most VWAP-extreme name in the scan at +128.5% (was +146.1%).
- AMGN, GILD, TMO barely moved (all within ±1% price, ±3 RSI points) — still the steadiest, cleanest large-cap names in the sector for a third scan running.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures how stretched a stock is over the past 14 sessions — under 30 is oversold (a potential bounce zone), over 70 is overbought (extended, often not a fresh buy). vs SMA20 shows the price gap to its 20-day average; a big positive number means it ran hard recently. vs VWAP shows the premium over the average price paid by everyone still holding — the higher this is, the more of the move is unrealized gain that could get sold into weakness. Trend combines direction and strength with a cross signal: GC (golden cross) means the short-term average is above the long-term average — a structurally healthier setup; DC (death cross) is the opposite. A low RSI in a stock still marked strong-down DC is not a buy signal by itself — it means the price is cheap relative to its own recent range, but the structure hasn't turned yet.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | vs VWAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONS | $64.27 (data 07-09) | 31.1 | -16.7% | +5.1% | -12.3% | -14.5% | -25.9% | strong-down DC | -8.0% |
| LEGN | $27.08 | 41.3 | -10.3% | -4.0% | -25.4% | +53.1% | -40.2% | weak-down GC | +1.3% |
| NTLA | $14.22 | 42.2 | -9.5% | -15.6% | +15.1% | -0.3% | -49.7% | weak-down GC | +3.7% |
| ISRG | $406.78 | 45.0 | -0.8% | -4.0% | -1.5% | -11.4% | -32.6% | strong-down DC | -15.4% |
| CRSP | $53.35 | 45.8 | -3.1% | -10.2% | +6.2% | -2.7% | -32.0% | weak-up DC | -6.3% |
| BIIB | $199.15 | 47.2 | -2.3% | -6.3% | -0.4% | +12.9% | -9.4% | strong-up GC | +18.4% |
| BEAM | $32.68 | 47.8 | -3.1% | -5.1% | +11.1% | +8.3% | -14.6% | strong-up GC | +24.9% |
| BNTX | $91.49 | 48.1 | -0.6% | -3.5% | +2.2% | -5.4% | -26.2% | strong-down DC | -7.4% |
| ALNY | $298.76 | 48.4 | +0.7% | -3.3% | +3.2% | -10.3% | -39.7% | weak-up DC | -19.8% |
| DNA | $9.09 | 48.8 | -2.1% | -6.4% | +13.6% | +36.1% | -48.3% | weak-up DC | -11.2% |
| GILD | $129.83 | 50.9 | +1.7% | +1.4% | +3.8% | -6.0% | -17.5% | strong-up GC | +3.4% |
| RXRX | $3.56 | 52.0 | +2.9% | -3.5% | +13.0% | +4.1% | -50.4% | weak-up DC | -25.1% |
| VRTX | $485.39 | 53.1 | +0.7% | -6.3% | +9.1% | +10.3% | -9.1% | strong-up GC | +10.7% |
| EDIT | $3.26 | 54.5 | +8.8% | -10.7% | +33.6% | +1.9% | -28.1% | strong-up GC | +14.3% |
| MRNA | $68.27 | 54.8 | +4.0% | -15.8% | +37.5% | +34.7% | -20.2% | strong-up GC | +76.7% |
| NKTR | $70.36 | 54.8 | +6.7% | +1.0% | +18.8% | -12.5% | -35.5% | strong-up GC | +20.6% |
| SRPT | $18.95 | 56.0 | +7.7% | +0.2% | +26.3% | -13.0% | -25.2% | weak-up DC | +3.3% |
| LLY | $1,188.58 | 57.1 | +2.0% | -1.4% | +2.4% | +28.1% | -4.9% | strong-up GC | +29.7% |
| AMGN | $363.39 | 58.6 | +1.9% | +0.3% | +2.6% | +4.7% | -7.1% | strong-up GC | +11.6% |
| BMRN | $59.12 | 58.6 | +3.0% | +1.7% | +6.5% | +7.7% | -10.8% | up DC | +5.0% |
| A | $134.29 | 58.6 | +2.8% | +3.8% | +3.9% | +14.5% | -16.2% | up DC | +4.8% |
| REGN | $664.52 | 59.3 | +5.2% | +3.2% | +8.7% | -10.8% | -19.1% | weak-up DC | +0.4% |
| DXCM | $74.96 | 60.0 | +4.6% | +6.0% | -0.4% | +18.8% | -16.7% | strong-up GC | +9.2% |
| ABBV | $248.08 | 60.5 | +3.2% | -3.2% | +10.4% | +21.1% | -5.2% | strong-up GC | +13.9% |
| MDT | $83.87 | 60.6 | +4.1% | +2.2% | +5.3% | -3.8% | -21.1% | weak-up DC | -5.3% |
| COGT | $38.87 | 62.3 | +5.1% | +1.4% | +19.2% | +6.4% | -11.1% | strong-up GC | +30.8% |
| DHR | $199.05 | 63.5 | +5.9% | +4.1% | +10.3% | +1.8% | -18.0% | weak-up DC | -0.8% |
| LABU | $293.84 | 63.7 | +14.9% | -1.1% | +68.4% | +60.8% | -11.8% | strong-up GC | +128.5% |
| IBB | $192.06 | 64.0 | +4.3% | -0.9% | +12.7% | +11.6% | -3.5% | strong-up GC | +18.5% |
| IBBQ | $33.09 | 64.1 | +4.3% | -0.7% | +12.3% | +12.1% | -3.3% | strong-up GC | +16.2% |
| NVO | $49.48 | 64.7 | +5.3% | +1.0% | +12.6% | +30.3% | -31.1% | up DC | +4.7% |
| TMO | $527.05 | 64.7 | +6.5% | +3.2% | +10.9% | +2.6% | -18.2% | up DC | +3.2% |
| PTGX | $131.42 | 64.8 | +7.3% | +1.4% | +19.7% | +34.7% | -6.9% | strong-up GC | +55.1% |
| ILMN | $190.20 | 64.9 | +8.0% | +0.1% | +14.4% | +49.8% | -3.3% | strong-up GC | +49.8% |
| INCY | $116.71 | 65.0 | +6.2% | +1.1% | +8.2% | +22.1% | -1.9% | strong-up GC | +22.2% |
| XBI | $159.03 | 65.5 | +5.6% | -0.1% | +19.9% | +20.6% | -4.0% | strong-up GC | +35.6% |
| RARE | $33.82 | 68.1 | +12.3% | +1.3% | +41.0% | +43.1% | -15.2% | up DC | +26.8% |
| IQV | $207.85 | 68.3 | +9.6% | +1.8% | +14.8% | +20.9% | -15.9% | up DC | +9.2% |
| KYMR | $119.35 | 70.7 | +14.6% | +5.2% | +43.9% | +34.8% | -8.2% | strong-up GC | +59.7% |
Tier Analysis
Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25)
None. No name in this scan meets the extreme-oversold threshold.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
IONS ($64.27, RSI 31.1, data 07-09) is the only name in this band — down 22.7% since the last scan into a strong-down DC regime. The trend hasn't turned; this reads as a falling-knife watch, not a confirmed reversal. Structure damaged, not intact.
RSI 40+ (everyone else)
The remaining 38 names span RSI 41-71 with no true extremes on either side:
- Weak / still working through a pullback (RSI 41-49): LEGN, NTLA, ISRG, CRSP, BIIB, BEAM, BNTX, ALNY, DNA. ISRG and NTLA are the notable reversals here — both were recovering or extended last scan and gave it back.
- Basing / cleanest accumulate (RSI 51-60, not extended vs VWAP): GILD, RXRX, VRTX, AMGN, BMRN, A, REGN, DXCM. AMGN remains the standout — never got extended, barely moved, three scans running.
- Momentum, holding not adding (RSI 60-65): ABBV, MDT, COGT, DHR, LABU, IBB, IBBQ, NVO, TMO, PTGX, ILMN, INCY. LABU's +128.5% vs VWAP is the one number here that still says "don't touch," even though its RSI has cooled to 63.7.
- Most extended survivors (RSI 65-71): XBI, RARE, IQV, KYMR. All four cooled meaningfully from the last scan without losing much price — digestion, the same pattern ABBV/DHR/TMO showed last cycle.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | $363.39 | <$350 (SMA20 retest) | 58.6 | +2.6% | Cleanest large-cap accumulate three scans running; +11.6% vs VWAP, never got extended |
| GILD | $129.83 | <$127 (SMA20 support) | 50.9 | +3.8% | Basing on SMA20; GC intact; +3.4% vs VWAP, still cheap |
| TMO | $527.05 | <$495 (SMA20) | 64.7 | +10.9% | Steady climber, +3.2% vs VWAP, thesis intact |
| IONS | $64.27 | Wait for reversal confirmation | 31.1 | -12.3% | RSI 31 is a real discount but trend is still DC — do not catch the falling knife without a confirmed turn; data is a day stale |
| ISRG | $406.78 | Watch for GC flip | 45.0 | -1.5% | Recovery stalled and reversed this cycle; still `strong-down DC` and thesis marked intact — needs the cross before treating as a real entry |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | AMGN, GILD, TMO | RSI 51-65, none extended vs VWAP, steadiest setups in the sector three scans running |
| 🔒 HOLD | BIIB, VRTX, MRNA, DXCM, ABBV, LABU, IBB, IBBQ, NVO, PTGX, ILMN, INCY, XBI, RARE, IQV, KYMR | Uptrends mostly intact after cooling; don't chase, don't add at current premiums |
| 🔍 WATCH | LEGN, NTLA, ISRG, CRSP, BEAM, BNTX, ALNY, DNA, RXRX, MDT, COGT, DHR, BMRN, A, REGN, SRPT, NKTR | Mixed pullbacks and stalled recoveries; wait for confirmation either way |
| ❌ AVOID / FALLING KNIFE | IONS | -22.7% since last scan, RSI 31, still `strong-down DC` — no reversal signal yet |
What To Watch Next
- Does IONS find a floor here, or is there another leg down before a real reversal candle shows up? (Data is a day stale — worth a fresh pull before acting.)
- Does the gene-editing cohort (NTLA/CRSP/RXRX/EDIT/ILMN) keep unwinding, or was this the whole correction? They moved together on the way up and the way down — watch them as one basket next scan.
- MRNA and VRTX both round-tripped from RSI 82 to the mid-50s in one scan — is there a real catalyst that stabilizes either name here, or does the mean-reversion continue?
- ISRG's recovery reversed after two scans of progress — is this a one-off pullback or the "broken" thesis reasserting itself?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.