Airlines Scan — July 17, 2026 Close

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Airlines Scan — July 17, 2026 Close

Scan symbols 6
Watchlists 1
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 20 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-11-airlines.md

Every carrier in the group closed the week lower, and the RSI compression that started two scans ago hasn't stopped — the sector has now fallen from a mid-50s RSI band to the high-30s/low-50s. AAL is the standout casualty: it broke structure, downgrading from strong-up to weak-down trend, and posted the sector's worst week (-11.62% 7D) with its 30-day change flipping from +15.70% to -6.32%. UAL, JETS, and LUV all saw their 30-day changes flip negative or flatten as well, and ALK's regime was downgraded to outright downtrend. This is a settled EOW close, not an intraday print, and it lands the same week the Gulf ceasefire collapsed and strikes widened — a fuel-cost and route-risk backdrop worth watching even though nothing in this price data proves that link directly.

Data as-of 2026-07-17 close (all six tickers, current). All numbers from precomputed summaries/airlines.json. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-airlines (2026-07-11, data as-of 2026-07-10 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 Broad sector rollover — all six carriers fell this week, RSI compressed further from mid-50s into the high-30s/low-50s, and 30-day gains that looked durable a week ago have mostly evaporated. AAL's trend structure broke outright.
Key insight AAL's trend downgraded from strong-up to weak-down and its 30-day change swung from +15.70% to -6.32% — the sharpest reversal in the group. DAL's distance from its 200-day average (vs SMA200) kept fading, now 21.8%, down from 27.8% last scan and 34.9% two scans ago — the "monster tier" extension flagged in early July is fully gone.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI Trend 7D% 30D% 3M% vs SMA20 52wkHi% Signal
LUV $48.08 50.9 strong-up -0.72% +0.23% +15.47% -3.2% -12.76% 🟡 Smallest weekly decline in the group; 30D gain nearly flat
DAL $84.17 45.2 strong-up -3.68% +0.24% +18.8% -5.1% -12.03% 🟡 vs SMA200 extension keeps fading (21.8%, was 27.8%); 30D gain nearly erased
JETS $30.46 44.7 strong-up -5.08% -1.74% +10.56% -5.1% -10.36% 🟡 30D turned negative, cooling in step with the underlying carriers
ALK $45.51 42.3 weak-up -7.91% -7.61% +4.52% -8.4% -30.92% 🔴 Regime downgraded to downtrend, death cross persists, worst distance-from-high
UAL $115.41 41.0 strong-up -8.4% -2.46% +16.68% -9.1% -14.38% ⚠️ Worst weekly decline among the majors; 30D flipped negative
AAL $14.98 39.0 weak-down -11.62% -6.32% +22.39% -11.1% -20.28% 🔴 Trend structure broke (strong-up→weak-down); worst 7D in the sector

Tier Analysis

AAL — STRUCTURE BROKE: AAL ($14.98, RSI 39.0) is the sector's clearest casualty this week. Its trend classification downgraded from strong-up to weak-down, the first structural break in this cluster in recent scans. The 30-day change flipped from +15.70% (07-10 close) to -6.32% — a roughly 22-point swing — on the sector's worst weekly decline (-11.62%). It's now -20.28% from its 52-week high, versus -9.79% two scans ago.

MONSTER-TIER EXTENSION FULLY UNWOUND: DAL's vs SMA200 has now fallen in three straight readings: 34.9% (07-06) → 27.8% (07-10) → 21.8% (07-17). What briefly qualified as monster-tier extension in early July is gone. UAL's vs SMA200 sits at 10.5%, also down from the 21.2% flagged mid-month. The sector-wide froth that showed up as RSI 68-74 two scans back has fully drained.

UAL AND JETS — 30-DAY GAINS FLIPPED NEGATIVE OR FLAT: UAL ($115.41, RSI 41.0) had the worst single week among the majors (-8.4% 7D) and its 30-day change flipped from +11.89% to -2.46%. JETS ($30.46, RSI 44.7) followed the same pattern, 30D flipping from +10.77% to -1.74%. LUV ($48.08, RSI 50.9) held up best of the group — smallest 7D decline (-0.72%) — but its own 30-day gain compressed to roughly flat (+0.23%, was +9.35%).

ALK — STILL THE STRUCTURAL LAGGARD, NOW WITH A REGIME DOWNGRADE: ALK ($45.51, RSI 42.3) is -30.92% from its 52-week high, deeper than the -24.98% flagged last scan, and its regime classification is now downtrend (was a milder "up" trend two scans ago). The death cross remains unresolved. This is the third straight scan flagging ALK as the group's weakest structural name.

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
LUV $48.08 50.9 +0.23% Least damaged this week; hold, no clean discount yet given the 30D gain is nearly gone rather than a real pullback
DAL $84.17 45.2 +0.24% Monster-tier extension fully unwound over three scans; structure intact but no fresh entry signal
JETS, UAL $30.46 / $115.41 44.7 / 41.0 -1.74% / -2.46% 30D gains flipped negative this week; wait for RSI to stabilize before treating as a discount
ALK $45.51 42.3 -7.61% Regime now downtrend, death cross unresolved, deepest distance from 52wk high — avoid
AAL $14.98 39.0 -6.32% Trend structure broke this week (strong-up→weak-down); avoid until it re-establishes uptrend structure

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD LUV, DAL, JETS Strong-up/golden-cross structure still intact despite the sector-wide pullback
⚠️ AVOID / WATCH UAL Worst weekly decline among majors, 30D flipped negative, no structural break yet
🚨 AVOID AAL Trend structure broke this week; worst 7D print in the sector
⚠️ AVOID / ROLLOVER WATCH ALK Regime downgraded to downtrend, death cross persists, distance-from-high still widening

What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-11 → 07-17)

  • All six carriers fell this week: DAL -3.68%, UAL -8.4%, LUV -0.72%, JETS -5.08%, AAL -11.62%, ALK -7.91% (7D).
  • RSI compressed further across the board: from a 53.6-58.5 band (07-10 close) to 39.0-50.9 (07-17 close).
  • 30-day changes flipped negative or flattened for four of six names: UAL +11.89%→-2.46%, JETS +10.77%→-1.74%, ALK +5.92%→-7.61%, AAL +15.70%→-6.32%. DAL (+7.06%→+0.24%) and LUV (+9.35%→+0.23%) both compressed to roughly flat.
  • AAL's trend classification downgraded from strong-up to weak-down — the first structural break flagged in this cluster.
  • DAL's vs SMA200 extension continued fading: 27.8% (07-10) → 21.8% (07-17), completing a three-scan unwind from the 34.9% monster-tier peak in early July.
  • ALK's regime downgraded to downtrend and its distance from 52wk high widened again (-24.98%→-30.92%).

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
AAL's trend structure broke (strong-up→weak-down) on the sector's worst weekly decline First outright structural break in this cluster since tracking began; worth flagging for the next scan whether it stabilizes or continues down
The sector-wide RSI compression that started two scans back hasn't stopped — now at 39.0-50.9, down from 68-74 in early July Three consecutive scans of cooling suggests this is a genuine multi-week pullback, not a one-week wobble

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
None repeated this round Last scan correctly held UAL/LUV as "no fresh entry signal" rather than calling a bottom — both continued lower

Open Questions

  • Does AAL's structural break stabilize, or is this the start of a longer downtrend for the name?
  • Is the widened Middle East conflict this week a driver of the sector-wide airline pullback via fuel costs and route risk, or is this a broader market rotation away from the group? This price data can't answer that on its own.

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
7 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.