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Serenity · (@aleabitoreddit)

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Wow, there's gem after gem in $AAOI earnings for $SIVE + other laser player readthrough. 1. AAOI not meaningfully participating in CPO first-gen deployments: "We just can't make enough of them [CPO lasers]... there's just not enough capacity." So first-gen CPO laser deployments might be narrowed further for Western players like $SIVE, $LITE, $AVGO, and $COHR. 2. Demand imbalance: AAOI's CEO said customer demand is 20-40% higher than built-out capacity — lasers are the biggest bottleneck for the transceiver business. 3. China is confirmed 'at least two, three years or even longer' from having CPO DWDM lasers. TLDR: high demand imbalance for CW lasers and transceivers; AAOI itself is capacity-constrained out of first-gen CPO (not bearish AAOI, bullish the few independent laser players with capacity — SIVE); China years behind in CPO lasers.

Why it's worth your time

AAOI's own earnings-call language, not analyst spin: management says it is turning away CPO customers for lack of laser capacity and puts China's CPO laser gap at 2-3+ years. That's a primary-source data point on exactly the AXTI/optical-supply-chain chokepoint this desk is already tracking — points capacity scarcity toward Sivers/LITE/COHR/AVGO rather than AAOI itself.