Reason: IRDM is the one clean long-horizon leader - 50.4% above its 200-day, change1y +102.9%, alpha1y +81.08. RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS have all fallen below their 200-day (vsSma200 -7.8%, -6%, -15.9% respectively) despite still-positive change1y figures inherited from earlier huge runs; RKLB's thesis is already flagged broken by the desk's own classification, and its regime reads collapse - these three trends are genuinely under test, not confirmed intact.

Tape Read

$IRDM: price $48.98, RSI 52.1, golden-cross, trend strong-up, regime pullback, thesis unrated, 7D -2.43%, 30D +4.52%, -14.34% off its 52-week high — 50.4% above its 200-day average (vsSma200) and change1y +102.9%, alpha1y +81.08: the group's one clean deep-pullback-in-an-intact-trend case. $RKLB: price $72.57, RSI 43.2, golden-cross short-term but trend down, regime collapse, thesis flagged broken, 7D -9.52%, -51.94% off its high — now 7.8% below its 200-day average (vsSma200 -7.8), though change1y is still +74.74% and alpha1y +52.93, inherited from an earlier huge run; the desk's own regime and thesis tags say this trend is under test, not confirmed — watch $78.73 (its 200-day). $LUNR: price $18.32, RSI 56, death-crossed, trend weak-up, regime downtrend, thesis unrated, 30D +30.02%, -60.81% off its high — 6% below its 200-day (vsSma200 -6), change1y still +112.04%, alpha1y +90.22: a volatile name that has cooled below its 200-day despite a still-positive year; watch $19.48. $ASTS: price $68.65, RSI 50.5, death-crossed, trend strong-down, regime collapse, thesis unrated, 7D -3.2%, -48.72% off its high — 15.9% below its 200-day (vsSma200 -15.9), change1y still +52.62%, alpha1y +30.81: same read, trend under test; watch $81.65. Source: full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-21 close — space.

• $IRDM — PROMOTE: change1y +102.9%, 50.4% above its 200-day, alpha1y +81.08 — the only clean intact uptrend in the complex.
• $RKLB — PASS: thesis flagged broken, regime collapse, 7.8% below its 200-day — trend under test despite a still-positive change1y; watch $78.73.
• $LUNR — WATCH: 6% below its 200-day, change1y still +112.04% — cooling below the line; watch $19.48.
• $ASTS — WATCH: 15.9% below its 200-day, regime collapse, change1y still +52.62% — trend under test; watch $81.65.

Lead pick: $IRDM remains the group's only confirmed intact structure — well above its 200-day with a strong year and positive alpha. $RKLB, $LUNR, and $ASTS all still carry positive change1y numbers left over from earlier huge moves, but all three have now fallen below their 200-day averages — these are trends genuinely under test, not the same setup as IRDM's deep pullback.

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/change1y/alpha1y): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-21 close — space.