Reason: IRDM stays the one clean long-horizon leader, though its cushion above the 200-day has compressed to 39.9% (was 50.4%) alongside 1-year change +89.35% (was +102.9%). RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS have all fallen further below their 200-day this cycle (vs 200-day -18.6%, -21.7%, -28.7% - all worse than last cycle's -7.8%/-6%/-15.9%); RKLB has now flipped to death-cross and its thesis stays flagged broken; ASTS's 1-year alpha has turned negative (-1.28, was +30.81) - a meaningful flip from long-horizon-positive to long-horizon-negative.

Tape Read

$IRDM: price $46.6, RSI 41.8, golden-cross, trend weak-down, regime pullback, thesis unrated, 7D -4.86%, 30D +5.05%, -18.5% off its 52-week high — 39.9% above its 200-day average (vs 200-day, down from 50.4% last cycle) and 1-year change +89.35% (down from +102.9%), 1-year alpha +69.48 (down from +81.08): still the group's one clean deep-pullback-in-an-intact-trend case, though the margin is compressing. $RKLB: price $64.39, RSI 35.3, now death-crossed (flipped from golden-cross short-term), trend strong-down, regime collapse, thesis flagged broken, 7D -11.28%, -57.36% off its high — now 18.6% below its 200-day (vs 200-day -18.6, much worse than -7.8% last cycle), 1-year change compressed to +34.4% (was +74.74%) and 1-year alpha to +14.53 (was +52.93): the desk's own regime and thesis tags say this trend remains under test and has deteriorated further — watch $79.06 (its 200-day). $LUNR: price $15.37, RSI 42.8, death-crossed, trend strong-down (worse than weak-up last cycle), regime collapse (worse than downtrend), thesis unrated, 7D -16%, -67.12% off its high — 21.7% below its 200-day (vs 200-day -21.7, much worse than -6%), 1-year change still +72.7% (down from +112.04%), 1-year alpha +52.82 (down from +90.22): further deterioration below the line; watch $19.64. $ASTS: price $58.05, RSI 39.2, death-crossed, trend strong-down, regime collapse, thesis unrated, 7D -15.4%, -56.63% off its high — 28.7% below its 200-day (vs 200-day -28.7, much worse than -15.9%), 1-year change compressed sharply to +18.59% (was +52.62%), and 1-year alpha has turned negative at -1.28 (was +30.81 last cycle) — a meaningful flip from long-horizon-positive to long-horizon-negative; watch $81.45. Source: full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — space.

• $IRDM — PROMOTE: 1-year change +89.35%, 39.9% above its 200-day, 1-year alpha +69.48 — still the only clean intact structure in the complex, though the margin is thinner than last cycle.
• $RKLB — PASS: thesis flagged broken, regime collapse, now 18.6% below its 200-day (worse than -7.8%) — trend deteriorating further; watch $79.06.
• $LUNR — PASS: 21.7% below its 200-day (worse than -6%), regime downgraded to collapse — further below the line; watch $19.64.
• $ASTS — PASS: 28.7% below its 200-day (worse than -15.9%), 1-year alpha turned negative (-1.28, was +30.81) — the long-horizon edge has now flipped.

Lead pick: $IRDM remains the group's only confirmed intact structure, though its cushion above the 200-day has compressed since last cycle. $RKLB, $LUNR, and $ASTS have all deteriorated sharply further below their 200-day averages this cycle — ASTS in particular has now flipped to a negative 1-year alpha, meaning its long-horizon record has stopped confirming the earlier huge move. These three are trends genuinely under test, not the same setup as IRDM's deep pullback.

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year change/1-year alpha): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — space.