IRDM — candidate.roundup
Update
IRDM — candidate.roundup
Reason: IRDM remains the group's one clean intact structure and its 1-year change jumped to +157.21% (was +91.75%, a base-effect roll as the year-ago comparison point shifted) - still deep pullback, not breakdown. ASTS is mixed: 1-year change and alpha both extended further (+56.01%/+39.79%, was +48.85%/+30.2%) even as its short window worsened (7D -3.93%, was +7.34%) and it sits deeper below its 200-day (-26.6%, was -23.5%) - regime remains collapse. RKLB deteriorated on every long-horizon measure this cycle (1-year change +29.98%, was +49.48%) and its thesis remains explicitly flagged broken. LUNR also deteriorated across the board.
Price/RSI Table
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRDM | $47.30 | +0.19% | -4.73% | -17.28% | 47.4 | 🟢 Pullback entry | 📈 Accumulate |
| ASTS | $59.86 | -3.93% | -19.45% | -55.28% | 44.3 | 🟡 Neutral (trend under test) | 🔍 Watch |
| RKLB | $62.95 | -2.04% | -22.45% | -58.31% | 37.8 | 🔴 Breakdown (thesis broken) | ❌ Don't Buy |
| LUNR | $14.35 | -3.11% | -15.34% | -69.30% | 39.9 | 🟡 Neutral (trend under test) | 🔍 Watch |
What Changed Since 2026-09-04
- IRDM remains the group's only confirmed intact structure: 1-year change jumped to +157.21% (was +91.75%) and alpha to +140.99 (was +73.1) - a rolling-window base effect rather than a fresh move, but the underlying read is unchanged: deep pullback, intact.
- ASTS is mixed this cycle: 1-year change and alpha both extended further (+56.01%/+39.79%, was +48.85%/+30.2%), but the short window worsened (7D -3.93%, was +7.34%; 30D -19.45%, was -8.88%) and it now sits 26.6% below its 200-day (was -23.5%) - regime stays tagged collapse, so this reads as a genuinely mixed picture, not a confirmed turn.
- RKLB deteriorated across every long-horizon measure: 1-year change +29.98% (was +49.48%), alpha +13.76 (was +30.83), now 21.2% below its 200-day (was -19.1%) - the desk's own thesis tag still reads broken; watch its 200-day at $79.91.
- LUNR also deteriorated: 1-year change +68.43% (was +75.89%), alpha +52.21 (was +57.24), 27.9% below its 200-day (was -25.1%); watch its 200-day at $19.91.
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year change/1-year alpha): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-11 close — space (Schwab).
- Prior-cycle comparison: 2026-09-04-space.
Related
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