Reason: IRDM stays the one clean long-horizon leader, roughly stable this cycle (1-year change +91.75%, was +89.35%; 39.9%->38.5% above its 200-day). ASTS's 1-year alpha, flagged last cycle as having turned negative (-1.28), has now flipped back positive to +30.2 alongside a 7D bounce (+7.34%, was -15.4%) and an improved distance to its 200-day (-23.5%, was -28.7%) - a tentative reversal of last cycle's specific flag, though it remains in regime collapse and below the line. RKLB and LUNR remain flagged/deteriorating on regime and thesis tags (both still collapse, RKLB still broken) even as their 1-year change numbers ticked up modestly.

Tape Read

$IRDM: price $47.21, RSI 46.2, golden-cross, trend weak-down, regime pullback, thesis unrated, 1D +0.55%, 7D +1.37% (up from -4.86%), 30D -2.4% (down from +5.05%), -17.44% off its 52-week high (roughly flat vs -18.5%) — 38.5% above its 200-day average (vs 200-day, roughly flat vs +39.9%), 1-year change +91.75% (up slightly from +89.35%), 1-year alpha +73.1 (up slightly from +69.48): still the group's one clean deep-pullback-in-an-intact-trend case, essentially stable. $ASTS is this cycle's reversal: price $62.31, RSI 47.2, death-crossed, trend strong-down, regime collapse, thesis unrated, 1D +0.29%, 7D +7.34% (bounced from -15.4%), 30D -8.88%, -53.45% off its high (improved from -56.63%) — 23.5% below its 200-day (improved from -28.7%), 1-year change +48.85% (up sharply from +18.59%), and 1-year alpha has flipped back positive at +30.2 (was -1.28 last cycle, flagged then as a meaningful flip to long-horizon-negative): that flag has now reversed, though the name is still tagged collapse and remains below its 200-day — a tentative stabilization, not a confirmed turn. $RKLB: price $64.26, RSI 37.2, death-crossed, trend strong-down, regime collapse, thesis flagged broken, 1D +0.71%, 7D -0.23% (improved from -11.28%), 30D -14.11%, -57.44% off its high (roughly flat) — 19.1% below its 200-day (roughly flat vs -18.6%), 1-year change +49.48% (up from +34.4%), 1-year alpha +30.83 (up from +14.53): the desk's own regime and thesis tags still say this trend is broken and under test despite a modestly improved 1-year number — watch $79.06 (its 200-day). $LUNR: price $14.81, RSI 40.9, death-crossed, trend strong-down, regime collapse, thesis unrated, 1D +0.75%, 7D -3.64% (improved from -16%), 30D +5.86%, -68.32% off its high (roughly flat) — 25.1% below its 200-day (worse than -21.7%), 1-year change +75.89% (up slightly from +72.7%), 1-year alpha +57.24 (up slightly from +52.82): continued deterioration on distance-to-200-day even as the 1-year number edges up; watch $19.64. Source: full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — space.

• $IRDM — PROMOTE: 1-year change +91.75%, 38.5% above its 200-day, 1-year alpha +73.1 — the only clean intact structure in the complex, stable.
• $ASTS — WATCH (reversal): 1-year alpha flipped back positive to +30.2 (was -1.28), 7D bounced to +7.34%, distance to its 200-day improved to -23.5% (was -28.7%) — last cycle's specific flag has reversed, though regime remains collapse.
• $RKLB — PASS: thesis flagged broken, regime collapse, still 19.1% below its 200-day — trend genuinely under test; watch $79.06.
• $LUNR — PASS: 25.1% below its 200-day (worse than -21.7%), regime collapse — further below the line; watch $19.64.

Lead pick: $IRDM remains the group's only confirmed intact structure, essentially stable this cycle. $ASTS is the story — the "1-year alpha turned negative" flag from last cycle has reversed back to a solidly positive +30.2, alongside a real short-window bounce and an improved distance to its 200-day, though it is still tagged collapse and below the line, so this reads as tentative stabilization rather than a confirmed turn. $RKLB and $LUNR remain the desk's flagged, deteriorating names on regime and thesis tags.

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year change/1-year alpha): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — space.