Source

EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook (released September 9, 2026; next October 6) forecasts Brent averaging around $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026 and gradually falling to an average of $74 in 2027 as production rises and inventories rebuild. It expects Middle East oil production to rise in the coming months on gradually increasing flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative export routes, while assuming some export constraints persist through year-end, keeping regional output below pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027. Read against the August outlook's disrupted-flows assessment, this is the same conditional recovery path one month on, with a stated price ceiling; it is a forecast, not transit data, and it does not establish company-level margin transmission. Primary page opened; qualitative claims only.

Takeaway

EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook (released September 9, 2026; next October 6) forecasts Brent averaging around $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026 and gradually falling to an average of $74 in 2027 as production rises and inventories rebuild. It expects Middle East oil production to rise in the coming months on gradually increasing flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative export routes, while assuming some export constraints persist through year-end, keeping regional output below pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027. Read against the August outlook's disrupted-flows assessment, this is the same conditional recovery path one month on, with a stated price ceiling; it is a forecast, not transit data, and it does not establish company-level margin transmission. Primary page opened; qualitative claims only.