🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-09-15
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1428ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
30 sources · 25 fresh · 4 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 175d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 139d |
| apricitas | rss | 2026-05-06 | 132d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 29d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 21 TRIM verdicts (19 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 2 risk-on regime gauges • 1 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-09-15
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDX/GLD miners-vs-metal | miners_leading_metal | risk_on | 0.24 ratio |
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -2.22 30d spread pct pts |
| Broad-market ETF breadth | breadth_deteriorating | risk_off | 13.3 pct above SMA50 |
🟠 TRIM — 21 positions
19 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- XLU (bench-signals, -8.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -8.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (bench-signals, -5.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -5.0%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -1.9%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +0.5%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +0.5%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +0.5%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +0.5%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +1.4%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +1.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +2.1%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (claude-trader, +4.3%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +4.3%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +6.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +13.1%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +18.3%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +21.9%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (claude-trader, +22.4%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
Other trims (rule-based):
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | yolo | +16.2% | partial-profit |
+16.2% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
| XOP | yolo | +17.4% | partial-profit |
+17.4% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +11.0% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 9 | +11.4% | atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: LOW), gottheimer-trades... |
| NVDA | 7 | +5.6% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), conviction, khanna-trades... |
| AVGO | 8 | +1.4% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f, khanna-trades... |
| V | 4 | +25.1% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), hohn-13f, klarman-13f (tier: LOW) |
| SNDK | 4 | +112.4% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, gottheimer-trades, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| BE | 3 | +118.1% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| ARM | 7 | +17.3% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail... |
| DHR | 3 | +4.5% | conviction, loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| MSFT | 4 | +13.0% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), conviction, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| META | 6 | +14.0% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| UBER | 4 | +0.8% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| CVS | 5 | +1.6% | bench-signals (tier: LOW), bench-signals-trail, claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail, yolo (tier: LOW) |
| MU | 5 | +133.1% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: MEDIUM), coatue-13f (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f, gottheimer-trades, tepper-13f (tier: LOW) |
| CF | 4 | +8.2% | bench-signals (tier: LOW), claude-trader (tier: LOW), claude-trader-trail, momentum-trader |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | $143.77 | 60.4 | +159.5% | +127.0% | +146% |
| IOVA | $9.36 | 69.6 | +145.0% | +34.1% | +127% |
| TXG | $74.39 | 75.1 | +134.3% | +32.6% | +144% |
| CDNA | $52.64 | 68.9 | +126.4% | +16.1% | +102% |
| ABCL | $11.41 | 58.9 | +124.2% | +0.3% | +113% |
| AMLX | $33.15 | 57.3 | +120.3% | +53.3% | +90% |
| TEAM | $189.81 | 64.9 | +115.8% | +17.0% | +72% |
| ATRC | $56.22 | 79.7 | +100.9% | +26.9% | +60% |
| AVAH | $14.31 | 72.7 | +90.3% | +16.1% | +67% |
| CVI | $52.17 | 81.7 | +82.9% | +48.0% | +68% |
| NEO | $18.89 | 68.2 | +80.1% | +18.5% | +59% |
| DK | $78.14 | 65.4 | +77.4% | +19.4% | +70% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 8
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP-USD | $1.28 | 45 | +0.6% | -32.2% | 2.4× | VA | crypto |
| ETHE | $19.41 | 57 | +4.8% | -16.4% | 2.9× | VA | crypto |
| ETH-USD | $2394.14 | 50 | +16.1% | -17.1% | 1.4× | VA | crypto, hard-assets |
| GBTC | $58.84 | 54 | +1.6% | -11.5% | 1.5× | VA | crypto, etf-monster-universe |
| BTC-USD | $75643.87 | 48 | +7.7% | -11.5% | 1.4× | VA | crypto, hard-assets |
| CRCL | $86.30 | 50 | +0.7% | -7.8% | 1.5× | POC | financials |
| FBTC | $66.20 | 54 | +2.1% | -7.8% | 1.5× | VA | etf-monster-universe |
| HLIT | $11.63 | 45 | +1.5% | -6.6% | 1.9× | VA | monster-discoveries |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 5
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUG | $45.30 | 63 | +39.4% | -0.5% | 2.8× | highs | cybersec |
| MATX | $238.60 | 73 | +36.1% | -0.9% | 1.8× | highs | monster-discoveries |
| BTE.TO | $7.21 | 68 | +27.1% | -1.8% | 1.8× | highs | canadian-og |
| FTRE | $19.73 | 62 | +33.2% | -7.8% | 1.8× | breakout | biotech-capital-cycle |
| ATKR | $94.55 | 73 | +28.7% | -0.1% | 1.6× | highs | monster-discoveries |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 4
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECO | $82.73 | 82 | +65.2% | +20.0% | 2.1× | +18.3% | energy, monster-discoveries |
| FRO | $51.59 | 80 | +59.3% | +13.3% | 2.1× | +10.7% | monster-discoveries, trace-iran-war-second-and-third-order-effects |
| SDGR | $23.25 | 71 | +46.8% | +16.8% | 3.9× | +16.1% | biotech-capital-cycle, ibb |
| RVTY | $140.19 | 71 | +37.0% | +11.0% | 2.3× | +10.3% | biotech-capital-cycle |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
Related
5 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.