EV / Clean Energy Scan — September 25, 2026 Close
EV / Clean Energy Scan — September 25, 2026 Close
Bloom Energy kept accelerating (+8.69% on the week, RSI 60.0 to 62.8) while nearly everything else on this board reversed — Albemarle and SQM gave back last scan's first green week in a month, and T1 Energy and First Solar posted the board's worst declines. The reversal lines up with a market-wide bond-yield shock reported September 23–24: Treasury yields hit multi-decade highs and Wall Street began pricing renewed Fed rate-hike risk, a combination that typically pressures capital-intensive, rate-sensitive names like solar and lithium hardest. Tesla's strong week decelerated but stayed positive; Rivian was the one clear positive divergence, extending out of oversold.
Data as-of the 2026-09-25 close. Prior scan: the September 23 EV and clean energy scan (data as-of the 2026-09-23 close). This edition covers a short, two-trading-day window — Wednesday's close to Friday's — rather than a full week.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 The oversold count widened from nine to twelve as the broad stabilization flagged last scan reversed on nearly every name except Bloom Energy, Tesla and Rivian. |
| Leaders | BE (+8.69%), RIVN (+3.20%), TSLA (+2.15%). |
| Laggards | TE (-9.35%), FSLR (-9.31%), ENPH (-6.47%). |
| Caveat | No company-specific news covers most of these moves; the macro driver cited here (the Treasury yield surge) is sourced from market-wide capture, not a receipt naming any individual ticker on this board. |
What's Going On
Bloom Energy is the one name on this board moving against the broader reversal. Its RSI climbed from 60.0 to 62.8 on an 8.69% weekly gain — an acceleration, not a deceleration, from last scan's more modest +1.91% — pushing its 30-day window to +32.3% and extending its 200-day cushion to 42.2%. It remains the board's clearest structural story by a wide margin, and there is still no dated news covering its recent strength.
Nearly everything else moved the other way, and the reversal was broad enough to widen the oversold count from nine names to twelve. Albemarle and SQM, which last scan posted their first green weeks after four straight declines, both gave that back: Albemarle's RSI fell from 39.3 to 37.1 (7-day change flipping from +3.65% to -1.06%), and SQM's fell from 40.6 to 36.6 (7-day change flipping from +0.58% to -1.23%) — both back inside the oversold band they had just climbed out of. T1 Energy and First Solar posted the board's worst declines this window: T1 Energy's 7-day change deepened from -1.22% to -9.35%, and First Solar's flipped from +0.47% to -9.31%, dropping its RSI from 39.6 to 35.1. Enphase remained the board's most persistently weak name — RSI 34.1 to 32.2, a sixth straight decline in this stretch (-6.47% this window) — with its news file still stale since June 21 and no dated cause on file across any of these scans.
Tesla's best week of the prior stretch decelerated but held positive: RSI eased from 60.6 to 55.3 on a 7-day change that cooled from +6.16% to +2.15%, while its 30-day window stayed strong at +7.6%. The stock remains 5.9% under its 200-day with a negative trailing year (-12.11%), so this is a strong run losing some steam rather than a confirmed reversal either way. Rivian was the clearest positive divergence on the board: RSI climbed from 41.1 to 47.4 — its best positioning yet in this stretch — on a 7-day change that flipped from -1.38% to +3.20%, even as nearly every other name here reversed.
A plausible macro cause covers the broad reversal, though it is not ticker-specific. MarketWatch reported on September 23 that bond yields surged above 5% as Wall Street priced in more Fed rate hikes, with stocks falling broadly the same day; Bloomberg followed on September 24 noting the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2004. Rate-sensitive, capital-intensive sectors — project-financed solar (FSLR, SEDG, ENPH), lithium miners (ALB, SQM, LIT) and EV manufacturers reliant on future cash flows — are typically among the first names to reprice when yields spike this sharply, which is consistent with the pattern across this board, though no receipt names any single ticker directly.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-23 close → 2026-09-25 close)
- BE kept accelerating: RSI 60.0→62.8, price $275.19→$288.70, 7D +1.91%→+8.69%, 30D +34.88%→+32.3%.
- ALB reversed its first green week: RSI 39.3→37.1, price $113.47→$109.73, 7D +3.65%→-1.06%, back inside the oversold band.
- SQM reversed its first green week: RSI 40.6→36.6, price $69.08→$66.89, 7D +0.58%→-1.23%, back inside the oversold band.
- TE had the board's worst decline: RSI 40.3→36.9, price $4.04→$3.78, 7D -1.22%→-9.35%.
- FSLR reversed hard: RSI 39.6→35.1, price $191.97→$177.71, 7D +0.47%→-9.31%.
- RIVN was the clearest positive divergence: RSI 41.1→47.4, price $15.02→$15.47, 7D -1.38%→+3.20%.
- TSLA's best week of the stretch decelerated but held positive: RSI 60.6→55.3, price $380.12→$372.11, 7D +6.16%→+2.15%.
- ENPH remained the board's weakest repeat decliner: RSI 34.1→32.2, 7D -7.00%→-6.47%.
- NIO, XPEV, LI, LCID, PLUG, SEDG, TAN, LIT, KARS, ICLN, NXT, ENS all moved lower or flattened on the window, widening the oversold count.
- No entrants, no dropouts.
How To Read The Board
The rows here are screen evidence. This window's reversal was broad enough to move the oversold count from nine to twelve — worth reading against the long-horizon fields rather than the two-day price action alone.
Bloom Energy remains unambiguously strong: 42.2% over its 200-day with a +320.29% trailing year. A cluster of names is damaged short-term but carries genuinely positive multi-year records — ENS (+62.8% year, -5.2% vs. its 200-day), TE (+66.52%, -42.1%), SQM (+50.45%, -12.8%), ALB (+29.35%, -29.7%) and LIT (+23.36%, -7.7%) — all below their 200-day averages right now, and all except LIT and ENS moved further away from that average this window rather than closer. DRIV (+20.64% year, -2.1% vs. its 200-day), NXT (+9.99%, -25.1%) and ICLN (+13.52%, -8.5%) are milder versions of the same shape.
Ten names are weak on both clocks at once: LI, NIO, XPEV, LCID, PLUG, ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, KARS and TAN, all below their 200-day averages with flat-to-negative trailing years — Lucid remains the extreme case at 48.2% below its 200-day with a -82.34% trailing year. Rivian, despite this window's positive divergence, is still 4.7% under its 200-day with a roughly flat year (-1.72%) — an improving name inside a trend still under test, not a confirmed reversal. Tesla sits at its own tipping point: 5.9% under its 200-day with a negative trailing year (-12.11%) despite two strong recent weeks — still a trend genuinely under test.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | $288.70 | 62.8 | $256.50 | +12.6% | +8.69% | +32.30% | 🟡 Neutral |
| TSLA | $372.11 | 55.3 | $365.68 | +1.8% | +2.15% | +7.60% | 🟡 Neutral |
| RIVN | $15.47 | 47.4 | $15.62 | -1.0% | +3.20% | -5.27% | 🟡 Neutral |
| ENS | $178.89 | 45.5 | $178.50 | +0.2% | +0.43% | -7.29% | 🟡 Neutral |
| DRIV | $33.67 | 45.3 | $34.01 | -1.0% | +0.45% | -1.75% | 🟡 Neutral |
| SEDG | $32.68 | 43.5 | $34.34 | -4.8% | -5.77% | -1.21% | 🟡 Neutral |
| ICLN | $17.21 | 42.6 | $17.58 | -2.1% | -1.99% | -2.66% | 🟡 Neutral |
| NXT | $80.85 | 41.9 | $82.29 | -1.7% | +0.47% | -7.31% | 🟡 Neutral |
| LI | $11.50 | 40.8 | $11.94 | -3.7% | -5.27% | -5.27% | 🟡 Neutral |
| PLUG | $1.98 | 39.9 | $2.10 | -5.6% | -5.26% | -8.76% | 🟢 Oversold |
| ALB | $109.73 | 37.1 | $121.21 | -9.5% | -1.06% | -18.42% | 🟢 Oversold |
| TE | $3.78 | 36.9 | $4.39 | -13.9% | -9.35% | -16.19% | 🟢 Oversold |
| SQM | $66.89 | 36.6 | $72.95 | -8.3% | -1.23% | -14.55% | 🟢 Oversold |
| TAN | $44.06 | 36.3 | $46.55 | -5.3% | -3.50% | -9.68% | 🟢 Oversold |
| KARS | $28.29 | 36.1 | $29.39 | -3.7% | -1.39% | -7.55% | 🟢 Oversold |
| FSLR | $177.71 | 35.1 | $199.65 | -11.0% | -9.31% | -13.70% | 🟢 Oversold |
| LCID | $4.07 | 34.7 | $4.37 | -6.9% | -0.49% | -17.78% | 🟢 Oversold |
| LIT | $69.02 | 34.7 | $72.09 | -4.3% | -2.10% | -9.09% | 🟢 Oversold |
| XPEV | $10.12 | 33.8 | $10.69 | -5.3% | -4.71% | -13.58% | 🟢 Oversold |
| ENPH | $32.40 | 32.2 | $35.66 | -9.1% | -6.47% | -15.67% | 🟢 Oversold |
| NIO | $3.58 | 29.7 | $3.77 | -5.0% | -2.19% | -18.08% | 🟢 Oversold |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): NIO (29.7), ENPH (32.2), XPEV (33.8), LIT (34.7), LCID (34.7), FSLR (35.1), KARS (36.1), TAN (36.3), SQM (36.6), TE (36.9), ALB (37.1), PLUG (39.9). Twelve names, up from nine last scan — ALB, SQM and PLUG all crossed back in this window.
Neutral/Strong (RSI 40 and up): LI (40.8), NXT (41.9), ICLN (42.6), SEDG (43.5), DRIV (45.3), ENS (45.5), RIVN (47.4), TSLA (55.3), BE (62.8, the board's highest print).
Entry Zones
Conditions, not advice.
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis / condition |
|---|---|---|
| BE | $256.50 (20-day) as support | The board's one unambiguously strong trend, still accelerating; no dated cause on file for the recent strength. |
| RIVN | $15.62 (20-day) reclaim | The board's clearest positive divergence this window; still under its 200-day but with a roughly flat trailing year. |
| ENS, LIT, DRIV, ICLN | 2% to 8.5% below their 200-days | Positive trailing years with modest structural damage — the survivable end of this board. |
| SQM, ALB | Watch the 200-day gaps, 12.8% and 29.7% overhead | Both gave back last scan's first green week in a month; the floor question is now further from resolved. |
| TE | No zone until the decline stops | +66.52% trailing year, but this window's worst decline on the board and 42.1% below its 200-day. |
| TSLA | No zone at these levels | Strongest week of the prior stretch decelerated but held positive; still under its 200-day with a negative trailing year. |
| FSLR | No zone | Reversed hard this window with no dated cause on file. |
| LI, NIO, XPEV, LCID, PLUG, ENPH, SEDG, KARS, TAN | No zone | Below the 200-day with flat-to-negative trailing years; this window's declines widened, not narrowed, the damage. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| BE | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold | Accelerating further; the board's one unambiguously strong trend. |
| RIVN | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | The board's positive divergence this window; improving but not yet confirmed. |
| TSLA | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Strong prior week decelerated but stayed positive; still below its 200-day. |
| ENS, LIT, DRIV, ICLN | 🟡/🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Positive trailing years with modest gaps to their 200-days — the survivable end of this board. |
| SQM, ALB | 🟢 Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid | Both fully reversed last scan's first green week in a month. |
| TE, FSLR | 🟢 Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid | The board's two worst declines this window, both without a dated cause on file. |
| ENPH | 🟢 Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid | Sixth straight weak print in this stretch; the news file has been stale since June 21. |
| LI, XPEV, NIO, PLUG | 🟡/🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Reversed or deepened this window. |
| LCID | 🟢 Oversold | ❌ Don't buy | Still the most damaged structure on this board: 48.2% below its 200-day, -82.34% on the year. |
| TAN, KARS | 🟢 Oversold | 🔍 Watch | Basket exposure to the same broad reversal. |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether the bond-yield shock keeps pressuring rate-sensitive names on this board | Solar and lithium are typically the first names to reprice when discount rates spike this sharply — this window's pattern is consistent with that. |
| Whether Albemarle's and SQM's floor is further away, not closer | Both gave back last scan's first green week in a month; the base question from two scans ago is now less resolved, not more. |
| Bloom Energy's continued strength without an explanation on file | Now six-plus scans without a dated cause behind a trend that keeps accelerating. |
| Whether Rivian's positive divergence extends | The one name improving while nearly everything else on this board reversed. |
| T1 Energy's and First Solar's unexplained worst-on-board declines | Neither has a dated receipt covering this window's -9%-plus move. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Bloom Energy accelerated (+8.69%) while nearly the entire rest of the board reversed | The board's one clean structural trend keeps extending through a macro headwind hitting everything else. |
| Albemarle and SQM fully reversed their first green week from last scan | The floor question flagged two scans ago is now further from resolved, not closer — a green week inside a downtrend is not a floor by itself. |
| The oversold count widened from nine to twelve in a single window, coinciding with a broad Treasury-yield surge reported September 23–24 | A macro shock can move breadth on this kind of rate-sensitive board faster than any single company event. |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Treating a single green week as a confirmed floor | Albemarle's and SQM's first positive weeks in a month (last scan) both fully reversed this window. |
| Reading Enphase's persistent weakness as eventually self-explaining | Six-plus scans of decline with a news file stale since June 21 — the absence of a receipt is itself the finding, not a reason to assume one exists. |
Open Questions
- Does Albemarle's and SQM's reversal mean the lithium floor is still not found, or was this window just a macro-driven pause in a real repair?
- Does Bloom Energy's unexplained strength continue, or does a cause eventually surface?
- What explains T1 Energy's and First Solar's worst-on-board declines this window? No receipt on file covers either.
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — ev-clean-energy.
- Prior-scan comparison values: 2026-09-23-ev-clean-energy.
- Market-wide bond-yield surge and Fed rate-hike repricing, September 23–24 — 2026-09-23-marketwatch-bond-yields-surge-above-5-as-wall-street-fears-more-fed-rate--mktw-0005249446, 2026-09-24-bloomberg-bond-yields-soar-spiking-fed-rate-hike-bets-tlvzzbkip3k900. No ticker-specific receipt confirms this as the mechanism for any single name on this board.
- Tesla items on file this window (neither confirmed as a price driver): a Roadster preview and a Nevada Semi-truck-factory scale-up report, both from CNBC — 2026-09-23-cnbc-tesla-roadster-reveal-is-creating-a-unique-options-opportuni-108367011, 2026-09-24-cnbc-tesla-poised-to-scale-production-of-heavy-duty-semi-trucks-w-108367749.
- News pulls checked and found to predate this window or return no substantive content: ENPH (latest, fetched 2026-06-21, stale), SEDG (fetched 2026-08-27), FSLR (fetched 2026-09-25, quote pages only), ALB (fetched 2026-07-29), SQM (fetched 2026-08-25), LI (fetched 2026-09-02), NIO (fetched 2026-09-06), XPEV (fetched 2026-08-28), LCID (fetched 2026-07-17), TE (fetched 2026-09-19), ENS (fetched 2026-06-21, stale), NXT (fetched 2026-07-14), RIVN (fetched 2026-09-25, quote pages only), BE (fetched 2026-09-25, quote pages only). No cause is claimed for any of these moves beyond the macro context cited above.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.