A tracked photonics source relays a Morgan Stanley read from Washington meetings; the note itself is not in hand. Curbs would start at 3.2T modules, Chinese modules could still qualify at 65% US content, and the analysts expect the effect in laser pricing more than in market share, with indium phosphide substrate supply the variable to watch. A second relay of the same note (P Equity Research, October 1) says 3.2T volume isn't expected to ramp until 2029, so this is a pricing and qualification story for the optical supercycle, not a near-term shipment one.
"Potential FCC rules on optical transceivers more likely to come at 3.2T" - $LITE, $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE. Morgan Stanley met with Washington officials: - Restrictions would likely start at 3.2T modules made in China (800g/1.6T would be left alone) - Potential restrictions would
A tracked photonics source relays a Morgan Stanley read from Washington meetings; the note itself is not in hand. Curbs would start at 3.2T modules, Chinese modules could still qualify at 65% US content, and the analysts expect the effect in laser pricing more than in market share, with indium phosphide substrate supply the variable to watch. A second relay of the same note (P Equity Research, October 1) says 3.2T volume isn't expected to ramp until 2029, so this is a pricing and qualification story for the optical supercycle, not a near-term shipment one.
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