Consumer Scan — October 2, 2026 Close

Scan

Consumer Scan — October 2, 2026 Close

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 71 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-25-consumer-scan.md

Consumer names mostly gave ground this week — 11 of 16 fell over seven days — and Nike's post-earnings drop plus a -6.75% week for Lululemon dragged the athletic group; the bright spots were Chipotle (+3.29%), Lion (+2.86%) and Corsair (+0.95%, the only name here with RSI above 60). Corsair is also the one clear intact uptrend: +66.9% versus its 200-day average and +73.02% over the year.

Data as-of the 2026-10-02 close (settled, Friday). The prior scan was the September 25 edition; the seven-day column below runs from that close to this one, so it is the change since the last scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Soft week: 5 up, 11 down, and only 6 of 16 names sit above their 200-day average. Weakness is concentrated in athletic and restaurant names; no RSI washout beyond Nike (RSI 28.2).
Leaders CMG (+3.29%), LION (+2.86%), DPZ (+1.88%)
Laggards LULU (-6.75%), CROX (-6.38%), NKE (-5.26%)
Caveat Price and RSI come from the desk's pre-computed summaries only. Company-specific causes are named only where a dated capture exists; every other move is left as cause unknown.

What's Going On

Nike is the cleanest story: it reported after the close on October 1, and CNBC's headline that day was that shares dropped on disappointing sales with layoffs tied to a restructuring (the earnings record shows an EPS beat, $0.48 versus $0.44 expected). On October 2 the stock closed at $33.87, -3.64% on the day, RSI 28.2, and -56.00% from its 52-week high; the trailing year is -54.58% with the stock 30.5% below its 200-day average. That is a long trend broken, not a pullback in an intact trend.

Lululemon fell -6.75% on the week to $94.46 (RSI 34, 1Y -46.99%, -34.8% versus its 200-day). Crocs fell -6.38% but remains in a different state — 10.9% above its 200-day with a +37.00% trailing year — so that is a pullback in an intact trend. No dated company-specific item explains either Lululemon or Crocs this week: cause unknown (news pulled 2026-10-03 for both, no item on the move, only old second-quarter releases; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures show nothing on them).

On the other side, Chipotle bounced +3.29% but is still -15.99% over 30 days and -24.43% below its high; Domino's (-14.15% over 30 days) is the same restaurant group coming off deep 30-day declines. Corsair is the leader on trend: RSI 62.4, 30-day +13.97%, -7.94% from its 52-week high.

What Changed Since Prior Scan

Since the September 25 scan: 5 names up, 11 down. Biggest decliners were LULU, CROX, NKE; biggest gainers CMG, LION, DPZ. Names with RSI under 30: NKE.

How To Read The Board

This is a price-and-momentum screen: it shows where each name sits on the tape, not why. RSI below 30 is a washout, 70 and above is extended. The long-trend columns matter more than the week: a name above its 200-day average with a positive trailing year is in an intact trend however ugly its week; a name below it with a negative trailing year is the one actually under test. Status icons follow that rule, and no insider or fundamentals data is included here.

Price Table

As of 2026-10-02.

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA20 7D 30D 1Y vs SMA200 Signal
CMG 32.36 38.9 33.85 -4.4 3.29 -15.99 -19.64 -7.2 🟡 Below long trend
LION 11.16 45.9 11.18 -0.2 2.86 -0.09 71.43 -1.7 🟡 Pullback
DPZ 297.62 39.4 305.78 -2.7 1.88 -14.15 -30.99 -15.9 🟡 Below long trend
CRSR 13.79 62.4 13.29 3.8 0.95 13.97 73.02 66.9 🟢 Healthy
DECK 79.12 40 79.64 -0.7 0.57 -5.54 -23.78 -21.9 🟡 Below long trend
SBUX 94.71 35 96.84 -2.2 -0.16 -11.25 9.21 -4.1 🟡 Pullback
MNST 42.94 42.9 43.36 -1 -0.39 -3.33 27.08 1.3 🟡 Pullback
XLY 110.04 40.9 111.23 -1.1 -0.47 -4.2 -8.07 -5.4 🟡 Below long trend
HIMS 29 49.5 28.59 1.5 -1.43 1.12 -49.89 5.3 🟡 Pullback
AS 27.17 40 27.44 -1 -2.16 -4.87 -22.79 -21.5 🟡 Below long trend
TOST 29.79 39 30.96 -3.8 -2.65 -12.49 -17.55 0 🟡 Pullback
XYZ 74.33 40.5 77.01 -3.5 -2.73 -9.86 -3.23 6 🟡 Pullback
PYPL 52.8 43.8 53.27 -0.9 -4.07 -3.42 -23.4 5.1 🟡 Pullback
NKE 33.87 28.2 36.24 -6.5 -5.26 -11.43 -54.58 -30.5 🟢 Oversold
CROX 118.09 45.2 118.5 -0.3 -6.38 1.99 37 10.9 🟡 Pullback
LULU 94.46 34 99.28 -4.9 -6.75 -21.33 -46.99 -34.8 🔴 Long trend broken

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI under 25)

No names in this tier.

Oversold / weak (RSI 25-40)

Stock RSI 1Y vs SMA200 Read
NKE 28.2 -54.58 -30.5 Long trend broken
LULU 34 -46.99 -34.8 Long trend broken
SBUX 35 9.21 -4.1 Mixed long trend
CMG 38.9 -19.64 -7.2 Long trend broken
TOST 39 -17.55 0 Mixed long trend
DPZ 39.4 -30.99 -15.9 Long trend broken

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)

Stock RSI 1Y vs SMA200 Read
AS 40 -22.79 -21.5 Long trend broken
DECK 40 -23.78 -21.9 Long trend broken
XYZ 40.5 -3.23 6 Mixed long trend
XLY 40.9 -8.07 -5.4 Long trend broken
MNST 42.9 27.08 1.3 Intact long trend, pullback
PYPL 43.8 -23.4 5.1 Mixed long trend
CROX 45.2 37 10.9 Intact long trend, pullback
LION 45.9 71.43 -1.7 Mixed long trend
HIMS 49.5 -49.89 5.3 Mixed long trend
CRSR 62.4 73.02 66.9 Intact long trend, pullback

Entry Zones

No price targets are set here; the reference levels are the 20-day and 50-day averages and the 52-week high gap, all from the summaries.

Stock SMA20 SMA50 From 52wk high Thesis
CMG 33.85 34.68 -24.43 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
LION 11.18 11.77 -33.17 Mixed; wait for a base
DPZ 305.78 331.05 -32.72 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
CRSR 13.29 12.34 -7.94 Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day
DECK 79.64 87.79 -35.3 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
SBUX 96.84 102.3 -14.3 Mixed; wait for a base
MNST 43.36 45.48 -14.41 Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day
XLY 111.23 114.39 -11.98 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
HIMS 28.59 29.29 -55.59 Mixed; wait for a base
AS 27.44 31.01 -36.46 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
TOST 30.96 32.94 -25.02 Mixed; wait for a base
XYZ 77.01 79.66 -14.48 Mixed; wait for a base
PYPL 53.27 56.51 -33.35 Mixed; wait for a base
NKE 36.24 38.95 -56 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry
CROX 118.5 124.45 -16.41 Trend intact; a flag entry needs the pullback to hold above the 50-day
LULU 99.28 111.93 -58.2 Trend under test; needs a reclaim of the 200-day before it is an entry

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
CMG 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
LION 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
DPZ 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
CRSR 🟢 Healthy 🔒 Hold Strongest trend on the board; no company-specific receipt for the week.
DECK 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
SBUX 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
MNST 🟡 Pullback 📈 Accumulate on flag No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
XLY 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
HIMS 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
AS 🟡 Below long trend ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
TOST 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
XYZ 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
PYPL 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
NKE 🟢 Oversold 🔍 Watch (washout, trend broken) Reported Oct 1 after the close; CNBC capture (Oct 1): shares dropped on disappointing sales and layoffs announced with restructuring. Earnings record: EPS beat. Down on the day in the 2026-10-02 summary.
CROX 🟡 Pullback 📈 Accumulate on flag No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.
LULU 🔴 Long trend broken ⚠️ Caution No company-specific receipt; cause unknown.

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether LULU stabilises Weakest seven-day move on the board (-6.75%), RSI 34, -34.8% versus its 200-day average.
Whether CMG extends Strongest seven-day move (+3.29%), RSI 38.9.
Washout names: NKE RSI under 30; a base needs a reclaim of the 20-day average first, and trailing-year trend decides whether it is a flag or a falling knife.

Sources

  • Tape data (price, RSI, averages, returns, long-horizon fields): pre-computed summary, 2026-10-02 close — consumer.
  • Nike first-quarter fiscal 2027 print — CNBC, "Nike shares drop as retailer posts disappointing sales, announces layoffs as part of restructuring" (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/nike-nke-q1-2027-earnings.html), 2026-10-01-cnbc-nike-shares-drop-as-retailer-posts-disappointing-sales-annou-108370277; earnings record 2026-10-01-nke-earnings.
  • News check for names whose moves are called cause unknown: AS fetched 2026-09-18; LULU re-pulled 2026-10-03; NKE re-pulled 2026-10-03; SBUX fetched 2026-09-30; CMG fetched 2026-07-31; DPZ fetched 2026-09-19; HIMS fetched 2026-09-18; DECK fetched 2026-07-25; CROX re-pulled 2026-10-03; PYPL fetched 2026-09-25; XYZ fetched 2026-10-01; CRSR fetched 2026-08-08; XLY fetched 2026-10-01; MNST fetched 2026-08-07; TOST fetched 2026-08-25; LION fetched 2026-09-30. Every pull returned zero dated items; "no items" in a pull is not proof of no cause. research/stock-events/ checked for 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-02: only the Nike earnings record applies to this universe (NKE; other 10-01 events are ACN and VYLR, not on these boards). Capture articles for 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-02 were searched by company name; only the Nike CNBC item matched, and a re-check on 2026-10-03, after the October 2 article and X captures landed, found nothing on these names.
9 events