Consumer Scan — September 23, 2026 Close
Consumer Scan — September 23, 2026 Close
Crocs did it again — a second straight double-digit-adjacent week (+7.99%) on top of last week's +8.68% — while Starbucks kept sliding further under its 200-day average, now 4.3% below versus 2.5% a week ago. The board's RSI band drifted broadly upward even though price action stayed mixed: nine of sixteen names are still oversold, down from twelve last scan, but most of that is deceleration rather than repair. Lululemon posted its best week in this stretch at +6.56%, and Monster gave back a green week to fall -1.48%. The Fed's rate move and the group's negative trailing year are still the backdrop; nothing dated inside this week's window explains any single name's move.
Data as-of the 2026-09-23 close. Prior scan: the September 18 consumer scan (data as-of the 2026-09-18 close). The 7-day window here runs September 16 to September 23.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Improving RSI band but still damaged — nine of sixteen names sit at RSI 40 or below, and most of the board remains under its 200-day average with a negative trailing year. |
| Leaders | CROX (+7.99% week, second straight strong week), LULU (+6.56%), CRSR (+2.74%). |
| Laggards | TOST (-4.21%), SBUX (-3.29%), CMG (-2.88%), XYZ (-2.54%). |
| Caveat | News pulls for SBUX, MNST, LULU, CMG, TOST, DPZ, NKE, DECK, AS and HIMS all predate this week's window (September 16–23); none can confirm or rule out a catalyst for this week's moves. |
What's Going On
Crocs is now a two-scan story. It ran 8.68% last week and another 7.99% this week, taking the stock to $124.62 with RSI at 56.7 — still well inside neutral territory, not extended. The structure underneath remains the cleanest on this board: 18.3% above its 200-day average with a trailing year of +59.46% and 43.69 points of excess return over the market. No dated item in either week's news pull explains the move (the freshest CROX pull, fetched September 19, tops out at a September 18 stock-overview page); the prior scan's question — does a second green week make this a turn rather than noise — now has a tentative yes on price action alone.
Starbucks is the name working against the tape. RSI sits at 26.3, the lowest on the board, and the stock is now 4.3% below its 200-day average, widening from 2.5% under a week ago. The trailing year is still barely positive at +9.86%, but the excess return over the market is negative at -5.91 — the "deep pullback inside an intact trend" read the prior scan flagged as fading is now further gone. No fresh news pull covers this week; the Starbucks file on record is from September 11.
Lululemon had its best week of the stretch: RSI climbed from 36.4 to 43.0, price rose 4.3% to $102.28, and the 7-day change flipped from -0.92% to +6.56%. That does not repair the long trend — the stock remains 31.0% under its 200-day average with a -40.99% trailing year and -56.76 points of alpha — but it is the first clean up-week since the crash story began. Toast moved the other way, falling another 4.21% to RSI 32.9 while its 30-day window deepened to -18.80% from -15.42%; the stock is still parked almost exactly on its 200-day average, off by half a percent, unchanged from last scan's read on that line.
Monster gave back its green week, falling 1.48% to RSI 40.8 after posting +3.02% last scan, though its trend remains supported at 4.0% above the 200-day with a +36.20% trailing year. Chipotle's decline decelerated sharply — down only 2.88% this week versus -7.65% last week — but it is still 6.4% under its 200-day with a -17.57% trailing year. Domino's, Amer Sports, Nike and Deckers all posted small positive-to-flat weeks after last scan's declines, a broad deceleration rather than a repair: all four remain well under their 200-day averages (-17.3% to -27.6%) with negative trailing years and deeply negative alpha (-37% to -65%). Lionsgate Studios moved the most on the long-horizon measure without much price change: its 7-day change was a mild -1.41%, but it is now only 0.8% below its 200-day average, versus 3.9% below at the last scan, while its trailing year holds at a strong +66.92% with +51.14 points of alpha.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-18 close → 2026-09-23 close)
- CROX extended its reversal: RSI 53.5→56.7, price $122.24→$124.62, 7D +8.68%→+7.99%, 30D -2.78%→-0.97%.
- LULU had its best week of the stretch: RSI 36.4→43.0, price $98.06→$102.28, 7D -0.92%→+6.56%, 30D -17.91%→-16.70%.
- SBUX deepened further and crossed further under its 200-day: RSI 28.8→26.3, price $95.83→$94.14, 7D -2.95%→-3.29%, 30D -8.72%→-12.42%; distance to the 200-day widened from -2.5% to -4.3%.
- TOST kept sliding: RSI 31.5→32.9, price $29.74→$29.81, 7D -7.41%→-4.21%, 30D -15.42%→-18.80%.
- CMG's decline decelerated: RSI 38.2→35.6, price $33.43→$32.71, 7D -7.65%→-2.88%, 30D -3.55%→-13.97%.
- MNST reversed its green week: RSI 45.5→40.8, price $44.71→$43.91, 7D +3.02%→-1.48%, 30D -5.73%→-10.24%.
- DPZ's decline decelerated: RSI 31.7→33.6, price $294.20→$296.43, 7D -5.58%→-1.62%, 30D -12.58%→-15.07%.
- AS, NKE, DECK all turned flat-to-positive on the week after last scan's declines: AS 7D -4.77%→-0.85%, NKE 7D -3.51%→+0.75%, DECK 7D -3.49%→+0.81% — all three still well under their 200-day averages with negative trailing years.
- LION's distance to its 200-day narrowed sharply: from -3.9% to -0.8%, while RSI rose from 33.9 to 43.7 on a mildly negative week (-1.41%); trailing year holds at +66.92%.
- XLY, the sector fund, was little changed: RSI 38.0→38.4, 7D -1.71%→+0.43%, still 5.2% under its 200-day with a -6.99% trailing year.
- No entrants, no dropouts.
How To Read The Board
These are screen readings, not setups. The long-horizon fields separate what looks similar on RSI alone.
Three names carry a genuinely intact trend: CROX (18.3% over its 200-day, +59.46% year, +43.69 alpha), CRSR (68.6% over its 200-day, +52.60% year, +36.82 alpha, and still extending — its 30-day window is now +23.92%), and MNST (4.0% over its 200-day, +36.20% year). LION is close behind on structure — just 0.8% under its 200-day with a +66.92% year — but hasn't crossed the line yet. PYPL and XYZ sit above their 200-days (+3.9%, +7.1%) without a positive trailing year to match, the same cushion-without-record shape flagged last scan.
Two names sit right at the tipping point rather than clearly on one side: SBUX, now 4.3% under its 200-day with a barely positive year and negative alpha, and TOST, parked at -0.5% for a second straight scan. Everything else — AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CMG, DPZ, HIMS and the sector fund XLY — is negative on both the 200-day distance and the trailing year at once. A rising RSI in that group this week is deceleration, not a discount reversing.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRSR | $13.52 | 60.9 | $12.75 | +6.1% | +2.74% | +23.92% | 🟡 Neutral |
| CROX | $124.62 | 56.7 | $117.79 | +5.8% | +7.99% | -0.97% | 🟡 Neutral |
| HIMS | $28.39 | 47.4 | $28.61 | -0.8% | +1.39% | -8.66% | 🟡 Neutral |
| LION | $11.15 | 43.7 | $11.25 | -0.9% | -1.41% | -3.46% | 🟡 Neutral |
| LULU | $102.28 | 43.0 | $106.55 | -4.0% | +6.56% | -16.70% | 🟡 Neutral |
| MNST | $43.91 | 40.8 | $44.59 | -1.5% | -1.48% | -10.24% | 🟡 Neutral |
| PYPL | $52.51 | 40.4 | $54.24 | -3.2% | -0.38% | -14.87% | 🟡 Neutral |
| XLY | $110.65 | 38.4 | $113.53 | -2.5% | +0.43% | -6.47% | 🟢 Oversold |
| XYZ | $74.68 | 36.9 | $79.75 | -6.4% | -2.54% | -8.23% | 🟢 Oversold |
| NKE | $36.05 | 36.6 | $37.36 | -3.5% | +0.75% | -11.53% | 🟢 Oversold |
| AS | $26.90 | 36.0 | $28.38 | -5.2% | -0.85% | -13.89% | 🟢 Oversold |
| CMG | $32.71 | 35.6 | $35.87 | -8.8% | -2.88% | -13.97% | 🟢 Oversold |
| DECK | $78.59 | 35.5 | $82.30 | -4.5% | +0.81% | -14.65% | 🟢 Oversold |
| DPZ | $296.43 | 33.6 | $322.34 | -8.0% | -1.62% | -15.07% | 🟢 Oversold |
| TOST | $29.81 | 32.9 | $32.63 | -8.6% | -4.21% | -18.80% | 🟢 Oversold |
| SBUX | $94.14 | 26.3 | $101.13 | -6.9% | -3.29% | -12.42% | 🟢 Oversold |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): SBUX (26.3), TOST (32.9), DPZ (33.6), DECK (35.5), CMG (35.6), AS (36.0), NKE (36.6), XYZ (36.9), XLY (38.4). Nine names, down from twelve last scan — CROX, LULU, NKE, AS and DECK climbed out, none newly joined.
Neutral/Strong (RSI 40 and up): PYPL (40.4), MNST (40.8), LULU (43.0), LION (43.7), HIMS (47.4), CROX (56.7), CRSR (60.9, the board's highest print).
Entry Zones
Conditions, not advice.
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis / condition |
|---|---|---|
| CROX | $117.79 (20-day) as support | Two consecutive strong weeks now; intact long trend (18.3% over its 200-day, +59.46% year). No dated cause on file for either week. |
| CRSR | $12.75 (20-day) area | Strongest structure on the board, still extending — 30-day window now +23.92%. |
| LION | Watch for a 200-day reclaim, now 0.8% away | Closest of the marginal names to flipping into the intact bucket; trailing year already strong at +66.92%. |
| MNST | $44.59 (20-day) reclaim | Gave back a green week but the trend is still supported, 4.0% over its 200-day. |
| SBUX | Needs to reclaim its 200-day, now 4.3% below and widening | The "pullback in an intact trend" read is fading further, not stabilizing. |
| CMG, TOST, DPZ, NKE, AS, DECK, LULU | No zone | Under the 200-day with negative trailing years. Decelerating declines are not the same as a repaired trend. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CROX | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold | Second straight strong week; structure intact, still no dated cause on file. |
| CRSR | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold | Extension continues; the one unambiguously strong trend on this board. |
| LION | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Closing in on its 200-day; strong year underneath. |
| MNST | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Gave back a green week against a still-supported trend. |
| SBUX | 🟢 Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid | Deepened further under its 200-day for a second straight scan; the intact-trend read is gone. |
| LULU | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch | Best week of the stretch, but still 31.0% under its 200-day with a -40.99% year. |
| CMG, DPZ | 🟢 Oversold | 🔍 Watch | Declines decelerated sharply this week; both still under the 200-day with negative years. |
| TOST | 🟢 Oversold | ⚠️ Avoid | Deepened again; parked exactly on its 200-day for a second straight scan. |
| NKE, AS, DECK | 🟢 Oversold | ❌ Don't buy | Flat-to-positive weeks inside deeply negative long trends (-37% to -65% alpha). |
| XLY | 🟢 Oversold | 🔍 Watch | Sector fund still under its 200-day with a -6.99% year — the group-level read. |
| PYPL, XYZ, HIMS | Mixed | 🔍 Watch | Cushions above the 200-day without a matching trailing-year record. |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether Crocs' back-to-back strong weeks turn into a confirmed base | Two green weeks running with no dated cause on file for either one. |
| Starbucks' widening gap to its 200-day, now 4.3% | It has moved further under the line for a second straight scan; watch whether it stabilizes or keeps sliding. |
| Toast still parked on its 200-day, off by 0.5% | Unchanged from last scan — the coin-flip level hasn't resolved either way. |
| Whether Lululemon's +6.56% week is a turn or a pop | The best single week of the stretch sits inside a -40.99% trailing year. |
| Lionsgate's approach to its 200-day, now 0.8% away | A reclaim would put it alongside CROX, CRSR and MNST as an intact trend. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Crocs strung together two straight strong weeks (+8.68%, +7.99%) with no dated cause for either | The board's clearest reversal remains unexplained by anything in the corpus. |
| Starbucks moved further under its 200-day (from -2.5% to -4.3%) rather than stabilizing | The last "pullback in an intact trend" name in this cohort is deteriorating, not resting. |
| Nine of sixteen names improved on RSI even though most remain under their 200-day averages | This is deceleration of the decline, not a repaired trend — the long-horizon fields still say broken for most of the board. |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Reading a rising RSI band as a healthier board | Most of the RSI improvement this week sits on names still weak on both the 200-day and the trailing year. |
| Treating a stale news pull as "no news" | Ten of sixteen names on this board carry news pulls that predate this week's window entirely. |
Open Questions
- Does Crocs' second strong week convert last scan's "needs a second week" test into a confirmed turn?
- Does Starbucks find a floor, or does the gap to its 200-day keep widening?
- Is Lionsgate's approach toward its 200-day (-0.8%) enough to flip it into the intact-trend bucket next scan?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close — consumer.
- Prior-scan comparison values: 2026-09-18-consumer-scan.
- News pulls checked and found to predate this week's window: SBUX (latest, fetched 2026-09-11), MNST (fetched 2026-08-07), LULU (fetched 2026-09-09), CMG (fetched 2026-07-31), TOST (fetched 2026-08-25), DPZ (fetched 2026-09-19, newest item 2026-09-18), NKE (fetched 2026-09-11), DECK (fetched 2026-07-25), AS (fetched 2026-09-18), HIMS (fetched 2026-09-18), CROX (fetched 2026-09-19, newest item 2026-09-18), XYZ (fetched 2026-04-29, marked failed/stale on a rate-limit error). No cause is claimed for any move on this board.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.