Consumer Scan — September 23, 2026 Close

Scan

Consumer Scan — September 23, 2026 Close

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 47 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-18-consumer-scan.md

Crocs did it again — a second straight double-digit-adjacent week (+7.99%) on top of last week's +8.68% — while Starbucks kept sliding further under its 200-day average, now 4.3% below versus 2.5% a week ago. The board's RSI band drifted broadly upward even though price action stayed mixed: nine of sixteen names are still oversold, down from twelve last scan, but most of that is deceleration rather than repair. Lululemon posted its best week in this stretch at +6.56%, and Monster gave back a green week to fall -1.48%. The Fed's rate move and the group's negative trailing year are still the backdrop; nothing dated inside this week's window explains any single name's move.

Data as-of the 2026-09-23 close. Prior scan: the September 18 consumer scan (data as-of the 2026-09-18 close). The 7-day window here runs September 16 to September 23.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Improving RSI band but still damaged — nine of sixteen names sit at RSI 40 or below, and most of the board remains under its 200-day average with a negative trailing year.
Leaders CROX (+7.99% week, second straight strong week), LULU (+6.56%), CRSR (+2.74%).
Laggards TOST (-4.21%), SBUX (-3.29%), CMG (-2.88%), XYZ (-2.54%).
Caveat News pulls for SBUX, MNST, LULU, CMG, TOST, DPZ, NKE, DECK, AS and HIMS all predate this week's window (September 16–23); none can confirm or rule out a catalyst for this week's moves.

What's Going On

Crocs is now a two-scan story. It ran 8.68% last week and another 7.99% this week, taking the stock to $124.62 with RSI at 56.7 — still well inside neutral territory, not extended. The structure underneath remains the cleanest on this board: 18.3% above its 200-day average with a trailing year of +59.46% and 43.69 points of excess return over the market. No dated item in either week's news pull explains the move (the freshest CROX pull, fetched September 19, tops out at a September 18 stock-overview page); the prior scan's question — does a second green week make this a turn rather than noise — now has a tentative yes on price action alone.

Starbucks is the name working against the tape. RSI sits at 26.3, the lowest on the board, and the stock is now 4.3% below its 200-day average, widening from 2.5% under a week ago. The trailing year is still barely positive at +9.86%, but the excess return over the market is negative at -5.91 — the "deep pullback inside an intact trend" read the prior scan flagged as fading is now further gone. No fresh news pull covers this week; the Starbucks file on record is from September 11.

Lululemon had its best week of the stretch: RSI climbed from 36.4 to 43.0, price rose 4.3% to $102.28, and the 7-day change flipped from -0.92% to +6.56%. That does not repair the long trend — the stock remains 31.0% under its 200-day average with a -40.99% trailing year and -56.76 points of alpha — but it is the first clean up-week since the crash story began. Toast moved the other way, falling another 4.21% to RSI 32.9 while its 30-day window deepened to -18.80% from -15.42%; the stock is still parked almost exactly on its 200-day average, off by half a percent, unchanged from last scan's read on that line.

Monster gave back its green week, falling 1.48% to RSI 40.8 after posting +3.02% last scan, though its trend remains supported at 4.0% above the 200-day with a +36.20% trailing year. Chipotle's decline decelerated sharply — down only 2.88% this week versus -7.65% last week — but it is still 6.4% under its 200-day with a -17.57% trailing year. Domino's, Amer Sports, Nike and Deckers all posted small positive-to-flat weeks after last scan's declines, a broad deceleration rather than a repair: all four remain well under their 200-day averages (-17.3% to -27.6%) with negative trailing years and deeply negative alpha (-37% to -65%). Lionsgate Studios moved the most on the long-horizon measure without much price change: its 7-day change was a mild -1.41%, but it is now only 0.8% below its 200-day average, versus 3.9% below at the last scan, while its trailing year holds at a strong +66.92% with +51.14 points of alpha.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-18 close → 2026-09-23 close)

  • CROX extended its reversal: RSI 53.5→56.7, price $122.24→$124.62, 7D +8.68%→+7.99%, 30D -2.78%→-0.97%.
  • LULU had its best week of the stretch: RSI 36.4→43.0, price $98.06→$102.28, 7D -0.92%→+6.56%, 30D -17.91%→-16.70%.
  • SBUX deepened further and crossed further under its 200-day: RSI 28.8→26.3, price $95.83→$94.14, 7D -2.95%→-3.29%, 30D -8.72%→-12.42%; distance to the 200-day widened from -2.5% to -4.3%.
  • TOST kept sliding: RSI 31.5→32.9, price $29.74→$29.81, 7D -7.41%→-4.21%, 30D -15.42%→-18.80%.
  • CMG's decline decelerated: RSI 38.2→35.6, price $33.43→$32.71, 7D -7.65%→-2.88%, 30D -3.55%→-13.97%.
  • MNST reversed its green week: RSI 45.5→40.8, price $44.71→$43.91, 7D +3.02%→-1.48%, 30D -5.73%→-10.24%.
  • DPZ's decline decelerated: RSI 31.7→33.6, price $294.20→$296.43, 7D -5.58%→-1.62%, 30D -12.58%→-15.07%.
  • AS, NKE, DECK all turned flat-to-positive on the week after last scan's declines: AS 7D -4.77%→-0.85%, NKE 7D -3.51%→+0.75%, DECK 7D -3.49%→+0.81% — all three still well under their 200-day averages with negative trailing years.
  • LION's distance to its 200-day narrowed sharply: from -3.9% to -0.8%, while RSI rose from 33.9 to 43.7 on a mildly negative week (-1.41%); trailing year holds at +66.92%.
  • XLY, the sector fund, was little changed: RSI 38.0→38.4, 7D -1.71%→+0.43%, still 5.2% under its 200-day with a -6.99% trailing year.
  • No entrants, no dropouts.

How To Read The Board

These are screen readings, not setups. The long-horizon fields separate what looks similar on RSI alone.

Three names carry a genuinely intact trend: CROX (18.3% over its 200-day, +59.46% year, +43.69 alpha), CRSR (68.6% over its 200-day, +52.60% year, +36.82 alpha, and still extending — its 30-day window is now +23.92%), and MNST (4.0% over its 200-day, +36.20% year). LION is close behind on structure — just 0.8% under its 200-day with a +66.92% year — but hasn't crossed the line yet. PYPL and XYZ sit above their 200-days (+3.9%, +7.1%) without a positive trailing year to match, the same cushion-without-record shape flagged last scan.

Two names sit right at the tipping point rather than clearly on one side: SBUX, now 4.3% under its 200-day with a barely positive year and negative alpha, and TOST, parked at -0.5% for a second straight scan. Everything else — AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CMG, DPZ, HIMS and the sector fund XLY — is negative on both the 200-day distance and the trailing year at once. A rising RSI in that group this week is deceleration, not a discount reversing.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
CRSR $13.52 60.9 $12.75 +6.1% +2.74% +23.92% 🟡 Neutral
CROX $124.62 56.7 $117.79 +5.8% +7.99% -0.97% 🟡 Neutral
HIMS $28.39 47.4 $28.61 -0.8% +1.39% -8.66% 🟡 Neutral
LION $11.15 43.7 $11.25 -0.9% -1.41% -3.46% 🟡 Neutral
LULU $102.28 43.0 $106.55 -4.0% +6.56% -16.70% 🟡 Neutral
MNST $43.91 40.8 $44.59 -1.5% -1.48% -10.24% 🟡 Neutral
PYPL $52.51 40.4 $54.24 -3.2% -0.38% -14.87% 🟡 Neutral
XLY $110.65 38.4 $113.53 -2.5% +0.43% -6.47% 🟢 Oversold
XYZ $74.68 36.9 $79.75 -6.4% -2.54% -8.23% 🟢 Oversold
NKE $36.05 36.6 $37.36 -3.5% +0.75% -11.53% 🟢 Oversold
AS $26.90 36.0 $28.38 -5.2% -0.85% -13.89% 🟢 Oversold
CMG $32.71 35.6 $35.87 -8.8% -2.88% -13.97% 🟢 Oversold
DECK $78.59 35.5 $82.30 -4.5% +0.81% -14.65% 🟢 Oversold
DPZ $296.43 33.6 $322.34 -8.0% -1.62% -15.07% 🟢 Oversold
TOST $29.81 32.9 $32.63 -8.6% -4.21% -18.80% 🟢 Oversold
SBUX $94.14 26.3 $101.13 -6.9% -3.29% -12.42% 🟢 Oversold

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI below 25): None.

Oversold (RSI 25-40): SBUX (26.3), TOST (32.9), DPZ (33.6), DECK (35.5), CMG (35.6), AS (36.0), NKE (36.6), XYZ (36.9), XLY (38.4). Nine names, down from twelve last scan — CROX, LULU, NKE, AS and DECK climbed out, none newly joined.

Neutral/Strong (RSI 40 and up): PYPL (40.4), MNST (40.8), LULU (43.0), LION (43.7), HIMS (47.4), CROX (56.7), CRSR (60.9, the board's highest print).

Entry Zones

Conditions, not advice.

Stock Entry zone Thesis / condition
CROX $117.79 (20-day) as support Two consecutive strong weeks now; intact long trend (18.3% over its 200-day, +59.46% year). No dated cause on file for either week.
CRSR $12.75 (20-day) area Strongest structure on the board, still extending — 30-day window now +23.92%.
LION Watch for a 200-day reclaim, now 0.8% away Closest of the marginal names to flipping into the intact bucket; trailing year already strong at +66.92%.
MNST $44.59 (20-day) reclaim Gave back a green week but the trend is still supported, 4.0% over its 200-day.
SBUX Needs to reclaim its 200-day, now 4.3% below and widening The "pullback in an intact trend" read is fading further, not stabilizing.
CMG, TOST, DPZ, NKE, AS, DECK, LULU No zone Under the 200-day with negative trailing years. Decelerating declines are not the same as a repaired trend.

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
CROX 🟡 Neutral 🔒 Hold Second straight strong week; structure intact, still no dated cause on file.
CRSR 🟡 Neutral 🔒 Hold Extension continues; the one unambiguously strong trend on this board.
LION 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch Closing in on its 200-day; strong year underneath.
MNST 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch Gave back a green week against a still-supported trend.
SBUX 🟢 Oversold ⚠️ Avoid Deepened further under its 200-day for a second straight scan; the intact-trend read is gone.
LULU 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch Best week of the stretch, but still 31.0% under its 200-day with a -40.99% year.
CMG, DPZ 🟢 Oversold 🔍 Watch Declines decelerated sharply this week; both still under the 200-day with negative years.
TOST 🟢 Oversold ⚠️ Avoid Deepened again; parked exactly on its 200-day for a second straight scan.
NKE, AS, DECK 🟢 Oversold ❌ Don't buy Flat-to-positive weeks inside deeply negative long trends (-37% to -65% alpha).
XLY 🟢 Oversold 🔍 Watch Sector fund still under its 200-day with a -6.99% year — the group-level read.
PYPL, XYZ, HIMS Mixed 🔍 Watch Cushions above the 200-day without a matching trailing-year record.

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether Crocs' back-to-back strong weeks turn into a confirmed base Two green weeks running with no dated cause on file for either one.
Starbucks' widening gap to its 200-day, now 4.3% It has moved further under the line for a second straight scan; watch whether it stabilizes or keeps sliding.
Toast still parked on its 200-day, off by 0.5% Unchanged from last scan — the coin-flip level hasn't resolved either way.
Whether Lululemon's +6.56% week is a turn or a pop The best single week of the stretch sits inside a -40.99% trailing year.
Lionsgate's approach to its 200-day, now 0.8% away A reclaim would put it alongside CROX, CRSR and MNST as an intact trend.

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
Crocs strung together two straight strong weeks (+8.68%, +7.99%) with no dated cause for either The board's clearest reversal remains unexplained by anything in the corpus.
Starbucks moved further under its 200-day (from -2.5% to -4.3%) rather than stabilizing The last "pullback in an intact trend" name in this cohort is deteriorating, not resting.
Nine of sixteen names improved on RSI even though most remain under their 200-day averages This is deceleration of the decline, not a repaired trend — the long-horizon fields still say broken for most of the board.

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Reading a rising RSI band as a healthier board Most of the RSI improvement this week sits on names still weak on both the 200-day and the trailing year.
Treating a stale news pull as "no news" Ten of sixteen names on this board carry news pulls that predate this week's window entirely.

Open Questions

  • Does Crocs' second strong week convert last scan's "needs a second week" test into a confirmed turn?
  • Does Starbucks find a floor, or does the gap to its 200-day keep widening?
  • Is Lionsgate's approach toward its 200-day (-0.8%) enough to flip it into the intact-trend bucket next scan?

Sources

  • Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close — consumer.
  • Prior-scan comparison values: 2026-09-18-consumer-scan.
  • News pulls checked and found to predate this week's window: SBUX (latest, fetched 2026-09-11), MNST (fetched 2026-08-07), LULU (fetched 2026-09-09), CMG (fetched 2026-07-31), TOST (fetched 2026-08-25), DPZ (fetched 2026-09-19, newest item 2026-09-18), NKE (fetched 2026-09-11), DECK (fetched 2026-07-25), AS (fetched 2026-09-18), HIMS (fetched 2026-09-18), CROX (fetched 2026-09-19, newest item 2026-09-18), XYZ (fetched 2026-04-29, marked failed/stale on a rate-limit error). No cause is claimed for any move on this board.
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.