Consumer Scan — October 16, 2026 Close
Consumer Scan — October 16, 2026 Close
Consumer names rose for a second week — 10 of 16 up, led by Starbucks (+7.46%), Crocs (+7.1%) and Nike (+6.97%) — but gave a slice back on Friday (12 of 16 down on the day), and Hims & Hers (-9.22%), Corsair (-6.16%) and Chipotle (-5.38%) led the decliners. Starbucks left the washout zone (RSI 54.5) and the board has no name under RSI 30. The bounce is still mostly inside broken trends: the same seven names close above their 200-day averages as a week ago.
Data as of the 2026-10-16 close (settled, Friday). The previous edition closed October 9; the seven-day column runs from that close to this one, so it is the change since then.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Bounce inside damaged trends: 10 up and 6 down on the week, 4 up and 12 down on Friday; 7 of 16 above their 200-day averages and no RSI under 30. Four trends are intact (Crocs, Monster, Corsair, Block). |
| Leaders | SBUX (7.46%), CROX (7.1%), NKE (6.97%) |
| Laggards | HIMS (-9.22%), CRSR (-6.16%), CMG (-5.38%) |
| Caveat | Tape from pre-computed price summaries, 2026-10-16 close. News for most names was last pulled before Friday's session, so most causes read "not on file", which is not the same as no cause. |
What's Going On
The Starbucks washout reversed. Starbucks rose 7.46% to $97.52 (RSI 54.5, against 28.8 at $90.75 on October 9) and sits 1.7% under its 200-day ($99.16) on a +15.63% year: a trend under test that is close to reclaiming the line. Bloomberg reported on October 14 that Starbucks said it is not buying Chipotle, tamping down the takeover speculation of the prior week. Chipotle fell 5.38% to $29.89 (RSI 34.3), 11.25% over 30 days and 13.5% under its 200-day on a -28.42% year. No receipt ties either stock's moves to the statement. Starbucks is estimated to report October 29 after the close (moved from October 28) and Chipotle October 28.
Most of the other leaders are relief rallies in broken trends: Nike +6.97% (RSI 58, 21.7% under its 200-day, 1Y -44.45%), Amer Sports +6.68% (30-day +10.65%, 12.1% under, 1Y -2.02%) and Deckers +3.4% (14.6% under, 1Y -13.48%). Crocs is the supported gain: +7.1% on a +48.09% year, 14.1% above its 200-day. Deckers reports October 22 and Crocs October 29. Monster rose 4.79% (RSI 62.7, the highest on the board; 1Y +30.36%, 7.1% above its 200-day).
Hims & Hers fell 9.22% to $28.07, including -4.46% on Friday, and now holds its 200-day ($27.27) by 2.9% on a -52.54% year: a repair near reverting to broken. Corsair fell 6.16% (1Y +60.48%, 48.2% above its 200-day, 0.9% under its 50-day), a pullback in an intact trend. Block's year turned positive (+4.49%, 10.1% above its 200-day), which moves it from repair to intact. Causes not on file: Hims's news was last pulled October 9; the only filing on file is an October 15 Form 4 showing a $100,577 sale by an officer. Corsair's newest news item is September 27.
Domino's reported on October 13: EPS $4.60 against $4.39 consensus, revenue $1.186 billion against $1.17 billion, and US same-store sales +0.3% (Austin Lieberman on X; the EPS comparison is the stock-event record). Investing.com's October 13 page shows the shares down 4.76% that day at $296.10. It closed Friday at $308.64 (+1.83% on the day), -0.23% on the week, and remains broken (1Y -25.98%, 11.2% under its 200-day). Context for the swing: the October 15 market brief had its consumer lane up 16 of 16 on Thursday (+3.9% median) and noted a BofA fund-manager survey, relayed by the Kobeissi Letter, showing consumer discretionary as the most underweighted sector since 2008. The October 16 market conditions snapshot has equal-weight RSP +0.49% on the week against QQQ -5.52%.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
Eleven up and five down on October 9 became ten up and six down, with Friday 4 up and 12 down. The washout list went from one name (Starbucks, 28.8) to none; the RSI 25-40 tier now holds Chipotle (34.3) and Lionsgate Studios (37.4). The same seven names close above their 200-day averages (Hims, PayPal, Block, Toast, Corsair, Crocs, Monster), but the intact count rose from three to four as Block's year turned positive. Leaders rotated from Hims, PayPal and Toast to Starbucks, Crocs and Nike; Hims went from first to last, and Starbucks and Crocs went from laggards to leaders.
How To Read The Board
This is a price-and-momentum screen built from pre-computed price summaries: it shows where each name sits on the tape, not why it moved. RSI under 30 is a washout and 70 or above is extended; neither is a recommendation on its own. The structure label carries the long view and outranks the week: trend intact is above the 200-day average with a positive trailing year (a bad week here is a pullback); repair is above the 200-day but down on the year; trend under test is below the 200-day with a positive year (the 200-day is the line to retake); trend broken is below the 200-day and down on the year. A raw reading becomes a setup only when an intact trend pulls back, holds a level and turns up. No insider, fundamentals or options data is included.
Price Table
As of 2026-10-16. Price and SMA20 in dollars; RSI is a 14-day reading; all other columns in percent.
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D | 30D | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | 97.52 | 54.5 | 94.35 | 3.4 | 7.46 | 0.18 | 15.63 | -1.7 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| CROX | 123.14 | 55.6 | 120.37 | 2.3 | 7.1 | 6.71 | 48.09 | 14.1 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| NKE | 37.13 | 58 | 35.46 | 4.7 | 6.97 | 3.77 | -44.45 | -21.7 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| AS | 30.02 | 61.5 | 27.86 | 7.7 | 6.68 | 10.65 | -2.02 | -12.1 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| MNST | 45.73 | 62.7 | 43.38 | 5.4 | 4.79 | 2.6 | 30.36 | 7.1 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| DECK | 85.71 | 58.7 | 81 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 9.94 | -13.48 | -14.6 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| LULU | 97.1 | 46 | 96.97 | 0.1 | 2.75 | 1.17 | -41.02 | -30.2 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| PYPL | 56.7 | 59.8 | 54.45 | 4.1 | 2.11 | 7.57 | -14.16 | 13.3 | 🟡 Repair |
| TOST | 31.62 | 53.2 | 30.37 | 4.1 | 0.99 | 1.61 | -15.45 | 7.2 | 🟡 Repair |
| XYZ | 77.89 | 52.3 | 76.05 | 2.4 | 0.84 | 1.64 | 4.49 | 10.1 | 🟢 Trend intact |
| DPZ | 308.64 | 51.3 | 299.84 | 2.9 | -0.23 | 2.44 | -25.98 | -11.2 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| XLY | 112.46 | 51.8 | 111.1 | 1.2 | -0.35 | 2.07 | -3.23 | -3 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| LION | 10.7 | 37.4 | 11.13 | -3.9 | -3.86 | -5.39 | 78.33 | -6.7 | 🟡 Trend under test |
| CMG | 29.89 | 34.3 | 31.54 | -5.2 | -5.38 | -11.25 | -28.42 | -13.5 | 🔴 Trend broken |
| CRSR | 12.79 | 44.9 | 13.52 | -5.4 | -6.16 | -2.81 | 60.48 | 48.2 | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact |
| HIMS | 28.07 | 45.8 | 29.28 | -4.1 | -9.22 | 0.25 | -52.54 | 2.9 | 🟡 Repair |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI under 25)
No names in this tier.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
| Stock | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | 34.3 | -28.42 | -13.5 | Broken: below 200-day, down on the year |
| LION | 37.4 | 78.33 | -6.7 | Under test: below 200-day, up on the year |
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)
14 names; RSI in parentheses, full rows in the price table.
- Trend intact: CRSR (44.9), XYZ (52.3), CROX (55.6), MNST (62.7)
- Repair (above 200-day, down on the year): HIMS (45.8), TOST (53.2), PYPL (59.8)
- Under test (below 200-day, up on the year): SBUX (54.5)
- Broken (below 200-day, down on the year): LULU (46), DPZ (51.3), XLY (51.8), NKE (58), DECK (58.7), AS (61.5)
Entry Zones
Levels are the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages from the summaries, in dollars. Each row is a condition, not an order.
| Stock | Entry zone ($) | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| SBUX | Above 99.16 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| CROX | 120.37–121.4 | Trend intact; entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| MNST | 43.38–44.73 | Trend intact; entry on a pullback that holds the 50-day and closes back above the 20-day. |
| PYPL | 50.05–56.08 | Repair, not yet a trend; a pullback that holds the 50-day after a higher high is the first entry, a close under the 200-day voids it. |
| TOST | 29.51–32.59 | Repair, not yet a trend; under the 50-day, so the trigger is a close back above it, the 200-day the floor. |
| XYZ | 70.72–78.69 | Under the 50-day inside an intact trend; a close back above the 50-day is the trigger, the 200-day the floor. |
| LION | Above 11.47 | Below the 200-day; no entry until two closes back above it. |
| CRSR | 8.63–12.9 | Under the 50-day inside an intact trend; a close back above the 50-day is the trigger, the 200-day the floor. |
| HIMS | 27.27–29.32 | Repair, not yet a trend; under the 50-day, so the trigger is a close back above it, the 200-day the floor. |
| AS, LULU, NKE, CMG, DPZ, DECK, XLY | None | Below the 200-day on a down year; no zone until a base forms and the 200-day is reclaimed. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CROX, MNST | 🟢 Trend intact | 🔒 Hold | Both above their 200-day and 50-day on positive years; Crocs reports October 29 before the open. |
| CRSR | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact | 🔍 Watch (50-day reclaim) | Clearest long trend on the board; 0.9% under its 50-day after a -6.16% week. |
| XYZ | 🟢 Pullback, trend intact | 🔍 Watch (50-day reclaim) | Year just turned positive (+4.49%); 1% under its 50-day. |
| HIMS | 🟡 Repair | 🔍 Watch (200-day hold) | Only 2.9% above its 200-day after a -9.22% week; cause not on file. |
| PYPL, TOST | 🟡 Repair | 🔍 Watch | Above the 200-day on negative years; PayPal reports October 27 before the open. |
| SBUX | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | 1.7% under its 200-day; estimated report October 29. |
| LION | 🟡 Trend under test | 🔍 Watch (200-day reclaim) | RSI 37.4; +78.33% year but 6.7% under its 200-day. |
| CMG | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | RSI 34.3; estimated report October 28. |
| AS, NKE, LULU, DECK, DPZ, XLY | 🔴 Trend broken | ⚠️ Avoid | Relief rallies or flat weeks, all under their 200-days on down years; Deckers reports October 22. |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Trigger | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| SBUX | Two closes above the 200-day (99.16) | Would turn a trend under test back to intact; the report is estimated for October 29. |
| HIMS | Holds the 200-day (27.27) | A close under it with a -52.54% year makes the repair broken. |
| CRSR, XYZ | Close back above the 50-day (CRSR 12.9, XYZ 78.69) | Both are intact trends; this turns a pullback into a flag. |
| CMG | Close above the 20-day (31.54) | The board's lowest RSI; a broken trend with no base. |
| Deckers, PayPal | Reports October 22 (after the close) and October 27 (before the open) | The next company prints on the board; both dates are scheduled. |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, averages, returns, long-horizon fields): pre-computed summary, 2026-10-16 close — consumer.
- Prior-week closes, RSI and structure counts — the October 9 consumer scan, 2026-10-09-consumer-scan.
- Starbucks statement — Bloomberg, "Starbucks Says It's Not Buying Chipotle" (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-10-14/starbucks-says-it-s-not-buying-chipotle-video), capture 2026-10-14-bloomberg-starbucks-says-it-s-not-buying-chipotle-tmwvsqr24uaf00.
- Domino's third quarter — Austin Lieberman on X, October 13 (https://x.com/LiebermanAustin/status/2110076714311127083), capture 2026-10-13-LiebermanAustin-dpz-released-q3-earnings-this-morning-revenue-1--11127083; EPS versus consensus from the stock-event record 2026-10-13-dpz-earnings; share move from Investing.com Canada (https://ca.investing.com/equities/dominos-pizza-inc), from the Domino's news pull of 2026-10-15.
- Hims & Hers Form 4 filed 2026-10-15 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1773751/000177375126000227/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1792097095.xml), capture 2026-10-15-hims-4-0001773751-26-000227.
- Consumer lane on Thursday and the fund-manager survey — October 15 market brief, 2026-10-15-market-brief; equal-weight versus Nasdaq-100 fund returns — October 16 market conditions snapshot, 2026-10-16-market-conditions. Report dates from the stock-event records for DECK (2026-10-22), PYPL (2026-10-27), CMG (2026-10-28), SBUX (2026-10-29) and CROX (2026-10-29).
- News check (stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json
, pull dates; UTC, all before Friday's session): AS 2026-09-18; LULU 2026-10-16; NKE 2026-10-06; SBUX 2026-10-09; CMG 2026-07-31; DPZ 2026-10-15; HIMS 2026-10-09; DECK 2026-07-25; CROX 2026-10-03; PYPL 2026-10-09; XYZ 2026-10-16; CRSR 2026-10-16; XLY 2026-10-13; MNST 2026-10-07; TOST 2026-10-07; LION 2026-09-30. Event records (research/stock-events/`) checked for October 13-16: the only entry on this board is the Domino's earnings record; the rest are earnings records for JPM, GS, C, WFC, JNJ, UNH, ABT, ASML, BAC, MS, TSM, IBKR and others. Article, X and filing captures for October 13-16 (articles, tweets, filings) were searched by company name. A news pull dated before a move does not cover it, and a pull with no item on the move is not proof of no cause.
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