Consumer Scan — September 18, 2026 Close

Scan

Consumer Scan — September 18, 2026 Close

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 45 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-11-consumer-scan.md

Crocs was the only name on this board that worked: +8.68% on the week, RSI back to 53.5 from 36.3, and a 30-day loss cut from -13.88% to -2.78%. Everything else kept bleeding — Chipotle posted the worst week (-7.65%) after two months of no news pulls, Toast fell -7.41%, and Starbucks slid to RSI 28.8, the lowest print on this board. The Fed raised rates a quarter point on Wednesday and oil is still up 17.5% on the month; the discretionary sector fund itself now sits 5.0% under its 200-day average with a -7.66% trailing year. This is the one board in this batch where the long trend, not just the week, is broken.

Data as-of the 2026-09-18 close. Prior scan: 2026-09-11-consumer-scan (data as-of the 2026-09-11 close). The 7-day window runs 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-18, so the comparisons below line up exactly with that scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 Twelve of sixteen names sit at RSI 40 or below and the sector fund is under its 200-day with a negative year — a broken group, not an oversold one.
Leaders CROX (+8.68% week, RSI 36.3→53.5), MNST (+3.02%), HIMS (+1.74%) — the only three green weeks on the board.
Laggards CMG (-7.65%), TOST (-7.41%), DPZ (-5.58%), AS (-4.77%), LION (-4.70%).
Caveat News pulls for CMG (July 31), TOST (August 25) and DPZ (June 21) all predate this week, so those receipts cannot rule a catalyst in or out. The new name LION carries a pull from June 21.

What's Going On

Crocs broke ranks. Price rose from $112.48 to $122.24, the week added 8.68%, and RSI jumped from 36.3 to 53.5 — the single biggest positive swing on this board in either direction. Its own news pull is a week old (September 11) and its last substantive item is the July 30 record second quarter with raised full-year guidance; nothing dated inside this week explains the move, so call the move real and the cause unestablished. The structure underneath is the cleanest read on the board after Corsair: 16.7% above the 200-day average with a +52.12% trailing year.

Chipotle had the worst week on the board at -7.65%, taking RSI from 51.1 to 38.2 and flipping the 30-day window from +10.91% to -3.55%. There is one dated item inside the window: Semafor reported on September 15 that the company is adding KFC's former chief executive to its board, framed as getting ahead of a potential activist problem. That is a governance event, not a trading catalyst, and the company's own news pull is from July 31 — so treat the week's decline as unexplained by anything on file. Chipotle is 4.4% under its 200-day with a -16.03% trailing year; this is deterioration on both clocks.

Starbucks is now the lowest RSI on the board at 28.8, down from 31.8, on a calmer week (-2.95% versus -5.48%). Its 200-day cushion, which was a positive 0.8% at the last scan, has gone negative at -2.5%. The trailing year is still positive at +14.88% but the excess return over the market is now flat. That is the exact point where "deep pullback in an intact trend" stops being the right description and the long trend goes under test — the 200-day is the line to watch. CNBC's September 16 afternoon update named Starbucks among the day's movers in its headline, but the captured item carries the headline only, with no detail behind it — so there is a dated mention on file and still no established cause.

Toast fell -7.41% and dropped to RSI 31.5, with its 30-day window deepening to -15.42% from -5.70%; its pull dates to August 25 and stops at the August 5 second-quarter report, so nothing on file covers this week. Domino's fell another -5.58% and Amer Sports -4.77%, both extending declines flagged in the last two scans. Lululemon, the crash story of early September, is now the quietest name on the board at -0.92% for the week, with RSI actually rising from 33.9 to 36.4 — although Bloomberg reported on September 11 that BMO Capital Markets had initiated coverage at underperform, seeing more pain ahead after an 81% rout. The 30-day window (-17.91%) and the -34.4% gap to its 200-day both say the damage is still there.

The one genuinely healthy structure is Corsair: RSI 60.2, 15.6% above its 50-day and 69.1% above its 200-day, with the 30-day window at +17.89% and a +53.97% trailing year. It eased -1.18% this week without breaking anything.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-11 close → 2026-09-18 close)

Numbers for 09-18 come from this scan's price table; numbers for 09-11 come from the September 11 consumer scan.

  • CROX reversed hard: RSI 36.3→53.5, price $112.48→$122.24, 7D -4.30%→+8.68%, 30D -13.88%→-2.78%.
  • CMG posted the board's worst week: RSI 51.1→38.2, price $36.20→$33.43, 7D -2.06%→-7.65%, 30D +10.91%→-3.55%.
  • TOST deepened: RSI 39.1→31.5, price $32.12→$29.74, 7D -5.39%→-7.41%, 30D -5.70%→-15.42%.
  • SBUX fell to the board's lowest RSI: 31.8→28.8, price $98.74→$95.83, 7D -5.48%→-2.95%, 30D -8.99%→-8.72%.
  • MNST recovered: RSI 34.7→45.5, price $43.40→$44.71, 7D -0.96%→+3.02%, 30D -5.61%→-5.73%.
  • DPZ kept sliding: RSI 34.8→31.7, price $311.60→$294.20, 7D -8.64%→-5.58%, 30D -11.91%→-12.58%.
  • CRSR eased off its extension: RSI 64.5→60.2, price $13.54→$13.38, 7D +6.45%→-1.18%, 30D +4.80%→+17.89%.
  • LULU stabilized further: RSI 33.9→36.4, price $98.97→$98.06, 7D -1.63%→-0.92%, 30D -18.12%→-17.91%.
  • AS, NKE, DECK, PYPL, XYZ, XLY, HIMS all traded within a narrower range; no new break, every 30-day window still negative.
  • New on the board: LION (Lionsgate Studios, added to the consumer list September 12) enters at RSI 33.9, $10.74, 7D -4.70%, 30D -7.25%.

How To Read The Board

This board's numbers are raw screen evidence — price, momentum and distance from moving averages — not setups. What turns a low RSI into a setup is the long trend underneath it, and that is where this group separates.

Three names carry an intact long trend: CRSR (69.1% above its 200-day, +53.97% year), CROX (+16.7%, +52.12%) and MNST (+6.2%, +38.34%). Two are marginal — XYZ sits 9.8% above its 200-day but its year is flat at -1.41%, and PYPL is 3.4% above with a -23.51% year, so the cushion exists without the record behind it. LION is the odd one: 3.9% under its 200-day but with a +50.21% trailing year and strong excess return, meaning a hard recent drawdown inside a year that worked.

Everything else is weak on both clocks at once: AS, LULU, NKE, DPZ, DECK, CMG, TOST, and the sector fund XLY itself, which is 5.0% under its 200-day with a -7.66% year. SBUX crossed from the first group to the third this week. A low RSI inside that second group is not a discount — it is a trend that is still going the wrong way. The macro context is on the record: CNBC reported on September 16 that rising oil prices and Treasury yields were hitting households for an estimated $1,700 a year, and the Fed raised rates the same day. No individual move on this board has been tied to that by any receipt here.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
CRSR $13.38 60.2 $12.40 +7.9% -1.18% +17.89% 🟡 Neutral
CROX $122.24 53.5 $117.69 +3.9% +8.68% -2.78% 🟡 Neutral
HIMS $27.99 45.6 $29.04 -3.6% +1.74% -9.97% 🟡 Neutral
MNST $44.71 45.5 $45.26 -1.2% +3.02% -5.73% 🟡 Neutral
PYPL $52.41 39.4 $55.61 -5.8% -2.44% -14.43% 🟢 Oversold
XYZ $76.28 39.1 $80.56 -5.3% -3.70% -5.75% 🟢 Oversold
CMG $33.43 38.2 $36.57 -8.6% -7.65% -3.55% 🟢 Oversold
XLY $111.03 38.0 $114.48 -3.0% -1.71% -6.37% 🟢 Oversold
LULU $98.06 36.4 $109.30 -10.3% -0.92% -17.91% 🟢 Oversold
LION $10.74 33.9 $11.29 -4.9% -4.70% -7.25% 🟢 Oversold
DECK $78.43 33.2 $84.00 -6.6% -3.49% -14.35% 🟢 Oversold
AS $26.73 32.7 $29.05 -8.0% -4.77% -21.43% 🟢 Oversold
NKE $35.51 32.2 $38.00 -6.6% -3.51% -13.50% 🟢 Oversold
DPZ $294.20 31.7 $329.91 -10.8% -5.58% -12.58% 🟢 Oversold
TOST $29.74 31.5 $33.67 -11.7% -7.41% -15.42% 🟢 Oversold
SBUX $95.83 28.8 $102.94 -6.9% -2.95% -8.72% 🟢 Oversold

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI below 25): None.

Oversold (RSI 25-40): SBUX (28.8), TOST (31.5), DPZ (31.7), NKE (32.2), AS (32.7), DECK (33.2), LION (33.9), LULU (36.4), XLY (38.0), CMG (38.2), XYZ (39.1), PYPL (39.4). Twelve of sixteen names — wider than last scan's ten, with CMG and the new entrant LION joining and nobody leaving.

Neutral/Strong (RSI 40 and up): HIMS (45.6), MNST (45.5), CROX (53.5), CRSR (60.2, the board's highest print).

Entry Zones

Conditions, not advice. Each row states what would have to be true, not what to do.

Stock Entry zone Thesis / condition
CROX $117.69 (20-day) as support on any give-back Only name here that reversed this week; intact long trend (16.7% over its 200-day, +52.12% year). The test is whether the +8.68% week holds without a dated catalyst behind it.
CRSR $12.40 (20-day) area Strongest structure on the board — 69.1% over its 200-day, +17.89% on the month. Extension risk, not trend risk.
SBUX Needs to reclaim its 200-day, currently 2.5% above the close Board's lowest RSI; the cushion that made it a pullback candidate went negative this week. Reclaim first, then talk entry.
MNST $45.26 (20-day) reclaim 6.2% over its 200-day with a +38.34% year; the week turned positive while the board fell.
CMG, TOST, DPZ, NKE, AS, DECK, LULU No zone Under the 200-day with a negative trailing year. The oversold reading is the trend working, not a discount.

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
CROX 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch Best week on the board with no dated cause on file; structure intact on both clocks.
CRSR 🟡 Neutral 🔒 Hold Month still +17.89%; the only unambiguously strong trend here.
MNST 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch Green week against a red board; 6.2% over its 200-day.
SBUX 🟢 Oversold 🔍 Watch Crossed under its 200-day this week — the long trend is now genuinely under test.
CMG 🟢 Oversold ⚠️ Avoid Worst week on the board; board seat change reported by Semafor is governance, not a catalyst.
TOST, DPZ 🟢 Oversold ⚠️ Avoid Both deepened again with no news pull covering the week.
NKE, AS, DECK, LULU 🟢 Oversold ❌ Don't buy Weak on the week, the month, the 200-day and the year at once.
LION 🟢 Oversold 🔍 Watch New to the board; -4.70% first week, but a +50.21% trailing year sits under it.
XLY 🟢 Oversold 🔍 Watch The sector fund itself is under its 200-day with a negative year — the group-level read.
PYPL, XYZ, HIMS Mixed 🔍 Watch 200-day cushions without trailing-year records to match.

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Starbucks' 200-day, 2.5% above the close The cushion flipped negative this week. Reclaim and it is still a pullback; fail and it joins the damaged group.
Whether Crocs' +8.68% week holds Best move on the board with nothing dated behind it. A second green week makes it a turn; a give-back makes it noise.
Chipotle after the board change Semafor reported the new director on September 15 and the stock fell 7.65% on the week; the company's own news pull is seven weeks old.
The discretionary sector fund's 200-day It is 5.0% under, with a -7.66% year. Until that changes, individual oversold prints here are inside a falling group.
Toast and Domino's follow-through Both deepened again on stale pulls; two more red weeks would make this a trend rather than a stretch.

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
The consumer discretionary fund is 5.0% under its 200-day with a -7.66% year Group-level damage, not a collection of individual oversold names.
Starbucks lost its 200-day cushion this week (+0.8% to -2.5%) The last "pullback inside an intact trend" name in the weak cohort has changed category.
Crocs is the only reversal, and it has no receipt The strongest move on the board is also the one the corpus cannot explain.

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Reading twelve oversold prints as a shopping list Eight of them sit under the 200-day with negative years — that is the trend, not a discount.
Treating a stale news pull as "no news" CMG, TOST and DPZ pulls predate the week; absence of a receipt is not absence of a cause.

Open Questions

  • Does Crocs' reversal have a cause, or is it positioning into quarterly expiry?
  • Does Starbucks hold the 200-day that it lost this week?
  • Is the new entrant LION's +50.21% trailing year a durable trend or a single re-rate already fading?

Sources

  • Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-18 close — consumer.
  • Prior-scan comparison values: 2026-09-11-consumer-scan.
  • Chipotle board addition, September 15 — 2026-09-15-semafor-chipotle-tries-to-get-ahead-of-a-potential-activist-problem-activist-problem.
  • Lululemon initiated at underperform by BMO Capital Markets, September 11 — 2026-09-11-bloomberg-lululemon-s-newest-bear-sees-more-pain-ahead-after-81-rout-tl3uktkgcthl00.
  • Household cost of oil and rates, September 16 — 2026-09-16-cnbc-consumers-hit-by-one-two-punch-of-oil-and-rates-from-iran-wa-108363233.
  • Federal Reserve quarter-point increase, September 16, in a headline that also names Starbucks among the day's movers with no detail behind it — 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844.
  • News pulls checked and found to predate this week's window: CMG (latest, fetched 2026-07-31), TOST (fetched 2026-08-25), DPZ (fetched 2026-06-21), LION (fetched 2026-06-21), CROX (fetched 2026-09-11). No cause is claimed for any of their moves.
  • Oil and sector-fund context: market-pulse as of the 2026-09-18 close.
  • LION watchlist addition dated 2026-09-12 — CHANGELOG.
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.