AI Scan
AI Scan
The AI board fell almost as one in the week to Friday, October 16: only 11 of 70 names rose, 21 fell 15% or more, and 32 lost 5% or more on Friday alone. Nebius fell 25.15% and closed under its 200-day, Lumentum 25.31%, Coherent 25.5%, Eos Energy 27.78%, and last week's leaders in security and software gave back double digits; the few gains came from four telecom carriers (BCE, Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T), Salesforce, Veeva and a handful of other names. The 200-day count fell to 33 above and 36 below, from 45 and 24 on October 9. Most chip, memory, optical and security names are deep pullbacks in intact trends; the quantum, small-reactor and solar names remain broken. All 70 names carry a settled 2026-10-16 close.
LONG-HORIZON READ: if a name's short-term trend reads "down" but it trades above its 200-day average and is up on the year, it is a deep pullback in an intact trend, not a breakdown. Real structural damage takes both: a price under the 200-day and a weak or negative year. The 1Y and vs SMA200 columns carry that check.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A broad, fast reset: 40 of 70 names sit in the oversold band, 17 of them above their 200-days (pullbacks), 8 under test, 14 broken. Most large chip and security names are still on the right side of the 200-day |
| Leaders (7D) | BCE 8.25%, VZ 7.54%, TMUS 7.08%, T 5.68%, CRM 5.05%, VEEV 4.81% |
| Laggards (7D) | EOSE -27.78%, COHR -25.5%, LITE -25.31%, NBIS -25.15%, SMCI -24.44%, IONQ -21.58% |
| Extended (RSI 70+) | VEEV 71.2 |
| Capitulation (RSI under 25) | none; the lowest readings are EOSE 25, QBTS 26.4 and WDC 27 |
| Caveat | Every name has a settled close. Moves are described, not explained; per-name news was last pulled before Friday's session, so Friday's single-name moves have no cause on file. SK hynix's US shares (SKHY) are too new for long-horizon columns |
What's Going On
Almost everything fell, and Friday was worse than the week. SMH fell 10.53% on the week and the AI ETF (AIQ) 6.88%, with AIQ trading 3.12 times its normal volume on Friday. Eleven names rose: the four carriers (BCE 8.25%, Verizon 7.54%, T-Mobile 7.08%, AT&T 5.68%), which bounced after last week's drop and are still under their 200-days; the application-software names Salesforce (5.05%), Workday (2.26%), Adobe (1.21%) and ServiceNow (0.79%); Veeva (4.81%), Intuitive Surgical (0.65%) and NextEra (3.13%). On Friday only six names rose (TransAlta, NextEra, Digital Realty, Verizon, T-Mobile, BCE). Bloomberg's Friday close report tied the week to worries about the viability of the AI trade pressuring chipmakers; CNBC's October 15 report on the global hardware sell-off cited AI funding worries. Those are the sources' framings, not a cause traced for any single name here.
Chips and memory: deep pullbacks, one real break. NVIDIA fell 6.61% to $214.13, RSI 37.5, 5.5% above its 200-day ($202.97) and up 17.78% on the year. AMD fell 13.05%, Marvell 17.24%, Intel 14.18% and Arm 14.45%; all four sit above their 200-days with one-year gains of 33% to 158%. Arm is the thin one: 1.9% above its 200-day ($223.44) and 49.68% off its high. TSMC (8.98%) and ASML (7.8%) reported on October 15 and October 14, each with provider-reported EPS above consensus (October 15 market brief), and still ended the week lower; both sit about 4% above their 200-days. Broadcom is the broken large cap: down 9.07%, 10.7% under its 200-day and down 7.17% on the year. Super Micro fell 24.44% and is broken. Micron fell 14.59% to RSI 34, still 22.4% above its 200-day and up 333.93% on the year. Seagate fell 18.39% and closed 5.3% under its 200-day ($674.45) with a one-year gain of 182.71%: under test. Western Digital, down 16.43%, is 19.1% under its 200-day and 58.49% off its high. SK hynix's US shares fell 19.25% to RSI 27.6. Optical broke harder: Lumentum fell 25.31% but is still 6% above its 200-day and up 404.89% on the year; Coherent fell 25.5% and sits 20.9% under its 200-day.
Neoclouds: the last intact trend closed under its 200-day. Nebius fell 25.15% on the week and 12.18% on Friday, on 1.91 times normal volume, to $165.47 and RSI 30.6. That is 4.9% under its 200-day ($174.04), under the $219.70 shelf that the October briefs named, and 44.82% off its high, but the stock is still up 34.48% on the year: under test, not broken. The whole neocloud board fell on Friday, all ten names by 6.78% to 12.18%, and each is down at least 12.52% on the week. Of the nine with a 200-day, none now sits above it. Per-name news for Nebius was last pulled October 15, nothing in it is dated to Friday, and no capture dated October 13 to 16 names the company, so its cause is not on file. Bloomberg's Friday close video and CNBC's October 16 report on CoreWeave's bonds and credit-default swaps frame the cohort's week as an AI-credit worry; neither excerpt on file mentions Nebius.
Software and security reversed, with the application names the exception. Crowdstrike fell 17.32%, Palo Alto 18.33%, Cloudflare 17.91%, Snowflake 16.82% (8.43% on Friday), Datadog 15.74%, Fortinet 13.16%, Zscaler 11.27% and Palantir 11.01%. All eight still sit 21.9% to 41.6% above their 200-days: pullbacks in intact trends. Two carry caveats: Zscaler is still down 30.7% on the year (repairing), and Palantir is up only 4.44% on the year, the thinnest trend of the group. The four that were extended last week (Palantir, Datadog, Zscaler and Fortinet) cooled to RSI 41 to 51; Veeva alone rose to RSI 71.2. Microsoft is the steadiest hyperscaler: down 1.13% on the week, up 7.9% on the month, 21.6% above its 200-day. Amazon fell 4.74% and is 3% above its line; Alphabet fell 3.15% and closed at its 200-day (0.1% under); Meta fell 1.3%; Tesla fell 7.31% and is broken.
Power and speculative names: broken stays broken. Constellation (8.96%) and Vistra (5.86%) fell back under their 200-days after moving back above them in the week to October 9; they are down 31.56% and 27.75% on the year. Bloom Energy fell 21.1% to RSI 36.5 but is 2.3% above its 200-day and up 92.29% on the year. Eos Energy fell 27.78% to RSI 25.0, the lowest on the board, with a 15.74% drop on Friday. NuScale and Oklo fell 19% each, the quantum names (IonQ, D-Wave, Rigetti) 15.89% to 21.58%, SoundHound and BigBear.ai 12.43% and 9.62%. All eight sit 27% to 74% under their 200-days with one-year losses of 52% to 88%: pre-revenue or lottery-like names, vetoed on business quality, not on the drawdown alone. Solar (FSLR, ENPH, SEDG, RUN) is broken and fell 2.6% to 6.7%.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
Prior edition: October 9. That edition's numbers are not reprinted. The points below compare its stated bands and lists with the October 16 close; the 7-day window starts at the October 9 close.
- The RSI 70+ band turned over again. On October 9 it held Palantir, Datadog, Zscaler and Fortinet; all four cooled to RSI 41 to 51. Veeva alone is at 70 or above.
- The capitulation band emptied. Verizon and BCE, in it last week, bounced to RSI 43 and 45. The oversold band grew from 12 names to 40: ten stayed (WDC, SOUN, BBAI, RGTI, QBTS, EOSE, FSLR, RUN, SMR, OKLO); AT&T and T-Mobile left; 30 joined, including NVIDIA, AMD, Marvell, Arm, Intel, TSMC, ASML, Micron, Nebius, Lumentum and the security names.
- Leadership flipped. Last week's leaders were Zscaler, Constellation, Vistra, Palantir and Veeva; this week's are the carriers, Salesforce and Veeva. The laggards moved from Eos, Arm, SK hynix and Intel to Eos, Coherent, Lumentum, Nebius and Super Micro.
- The 200-day count dropped 12 names to 33 above and 36 below. Twelve crossed under and none crossed over: Super Micro, Alphabet, MongoDB, TransAlta, Constellation, Vistra, Seagate, Equinix, SK Telecom, the robotics ETF (ROBO), Coherent and Nebius.
- Trend classes shifted. Broadcom moved from under test to broken (its one-year change turned negative); Veeva moved from repairing to intact (its year turned positive). Constellation, Vistra, TransAlta and Super Micro moved from repairing to broken.
- Telecom stabilized. The three US carriers and BCE rose 5.68% to 8.25% after last week's break, but all four remain under their 200-days.
How To Read The Board
RSI below 25 is capitulation. RSI 25–40 is oversold, and it means little without the long-horizon columns: 17 of this week's 40 oversold names are above their 200-days and up on the year, and 14 are broken. RSI 40–70 is neutral; 70 and above is extended. "vs SMA" is the distance from the 20-day average, a short-term positioning read only. "1Y%" and "vs SMA200" show whether the trend is intact. The Signal column labels each row: intact (above the 200-day, up on the year), repairing (above the 200-day, down on the year), under test (below the 200-day, up on the year) or broken (below the 200-day, down on the year), plus the RSI band when it is not neutral. A low RSI on a speculative or pre-profit name is not a setup. Everything here is raw screen evidence from settled prices; none of it is a setup until a level is named and holds. TransAlta (TAC) is a Canadian power producer (hydro, wind, solar, batteries and gas); it is listed with the power names. The table shows 7-day, 30-day and one-year changes ending at the 2026-10-16 close.
Price Table
| Group | Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semis and Foundry | NVDA | $214.13 | 37.5 | $228.18 | -6.2% | -6.61% | 0.11% | 17.78% | 5.5% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | AMD | $528.75 | 37.8 | $610.4 | -13.4% | -13.05% | 3.17% | 125.42% | 34.1% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | AVGO | $328.75 | 34.8 | $355.39 | -7.5% | -9.07% | -3.17% | -7.17% | -10.7% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | MRVL | $227.83 | 37.5 | $263.15 | -13.4% | -17.24% | -0.82% | 158.22% | 29.6% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | ARM | $227.8 | 34.5 | $286.72 | -20.6% | -14.45% | -6.63% | 33.07% | 1.9% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | SMCI | $31.63 | 30.2 | $40.81 | -22.5% | -24.44% | -14.17% | -41.25% | -2.6% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | QCOM | $172.11 | 43.1 | $183.67 | -6.3% | -1.93% | -6.89% | 4.89% | 1.6% | 🟢 Intact |
| — | INTC | $89.85 | 31.4 | $112.56 | -20.2% | -14.18% | -11.08% | 143.89% | 6.3% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | TSM | $412.61 | 34.2 | $452.47 | -8.8% | -8.98% | -1.22% | 37.61% | 4.4% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | ASML | $1641.52 | 37.7 | $1761.48 | -6.8% | -7.8% | 2.45% | 61% | 4.1% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | SMH | $539.79 | 31.4 | $601.04 | -10.2% | -10.53% | -1.06% | 57.24% | 5.6% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | SKHY | $136.49 | 27.6 | $176.88 | -22.8% | -19.25% | -21.95% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 No 200-day or one-year history yet (listed July 2026), oversold |
| Memory and Storage | MU | $878.84 | 34 | $1033 | -14.9% | -14.59% | -5.15% | 333.93% | 22.4% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | STX | $639.01 | 27.6 | $834.88 | -23.5% | -18.39% | -18.41% | 182.71% | -5.3% | 🟡 Under test, oversold |
| — | WDC | $332 | 27 | $420.07 | -21% | -16.43% | -20.38% | 163.66% | -19.1% | 🟡 Under test, oversold |
| Optical | LITE | $824.13 | 37.4 | $988.33 | -16.6% | -25.31% | -10.36% | 404.89% | 6% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | COHR | $232.9 | 33.4 | $299.2 | -22.2% | -25.5% | -19.67% | 100.85% | -20.9% | 🟡 Under test, oversold |
| Hyperscalers and Platforms | AMZN | $250 | 45 | $253.23 | -1.3% | -4.74% | 1.64% | 16.57% | 3% | 🟢 Intact |
| — | MSFT | $529.05 | 57.3 | $520.22 | 1.7% | -1.13% | 7.9% | 3.41% | 21.6% | 🟢 Intact |
| — | GOOGL | $340.59 | 44.4 | $346.41 | -1.7% | -3.15% | -0.66% | 35.45% | -0.1% | 🟡 Under test |
| — | META | $709.33 | 50.2 | $735.78 | -3.6% | -1.3% | 5.35% | -0.38% | 12.2% | 🟡 Repairing |
| — | TSLA | $354.72 | 42.2 | $370.33 | -4.2% | -7.31% | -0.94% | -17.27% | -8.6% | 🔴 Broken |
| — | PLTR | $186.03 | 46.3 | $193.55 | -3.9% | -11.01% | 6.71% | 4.44% | 21.9% | 🟢 Intact |
| — | NBIS | $165.47 | 30.6 | $223.69 | -26% | -25.15% | -20.97% | 34.48% | -4.9% | 🟡 Under test, oversold |
| — | NET | $296.3 | 35.9 | $345.71 | -14.3% | -17.91% | -8.73% | 40.16% | 22.3% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| AI Software, Data and Health AI | AI | $11.32 | 53.1 | $11.15 | 1.5% | -1.82% | 7.2% | -37.32% | 11.8% | 🟡 Repairing |
| — | SNOW | $306.84 | 37.3 | $338.85 | -9.4% | -16.82% | -7.3% | 27.82% | 31.2% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | DDOG | $247.11 | 41.8 | $269.01 | -8.1% | -15.74% | 7.07% | 63.46% | 29% | 🟢 Intact |
| — | MDB | $337.57 | 39.3 | $374.02 | -9.7% | -12.53% | -10.3% | 7.39% | -0.6% | 🟡 Under test, oversold |
| — | PATH | $12.85 | 42.6 | $13.05 | -1.5% | -4.67% | -5.72% | -19.33% | 2.7% | 🟡 Repairing |
| — | CRM | $240.7 | 55.8 | $233.23 | 3.2% | 5.05% | -3.93% | -2.15% | 20.9% | 🟡 Repairing |
| — | NOW | $141.97 | 55.5 | $137.92 | 2.9% | 0.79% | 1.54% | -20.64% | 23.4% | 🟡 Repairing |
| — | ADBE | $245.2 | 50.1 | $239.55 | 2.4% | 1.21% | -2.12% | -25.52% | -3.5% | 🔴 Broken |
| — | WDAY | $190.81 | 52.1 | $188.94 | 1% | 2.26% | 1.62% | -16.16% | 22.5% | 🟡 Repairing |
| — | VEEV | $310.36 | 71.2 | $284.82 | 9% | 4.81% | 17.16% | 6.02% | 51.5% | 🟠 Intact, extended |
| — | TEM | $64.72 | 41.5 | $75.41 | -14.2% | -8.76% | -7.5% | -28.89% | 14% | 🟡 Repairing |
| — | ISRGE | $426.7 | 64.7 | $411.16 | 3.8% | 0.65% | 11.62% | -1.82% | -2.9% | 🔴 Broken |
| Security | CRWD | $227.39 | 39 | $259.85 | -12.5% | -17.32% | -5.79% | 88.61% | 41.6% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | PANW | $342 | 37 | $390.96 | -12.5% | -18.33% | -8.96% | 66.42% | 31.2% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | FTNT | $169.13 | 40.7 | $181.92 | -7% | -13.16% | -1.54% | 103.43% | 36.5% | 🟢 Intact |
| — | ZS | $207.38 | 51.4 | $210.66 | -1.6% | -11.27% | 8.25% | -30.7% | 25.1% | 🟡 Repairing |
| Quantum and Speculative AI | IONQ | $31.28 | 31.8 | $40.47 | -22.7% | -21.58% | -15.09% | -52.31% | -27.1% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | RGTI | $11.8 | 29.2 | $14.79 | -20.2% | -15.89% | -20.22% | -75.4% | -33.8% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | QBTS | $11.78 | 26.4 | $15.43 | -23.7% | -19.15% | -27.6% | -70.88% | -41.6% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | SOUN | $4.72 | 29 | $5.61 | -15.8% | -12.43% | -20.4% | -77.26% | -37.2% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | BBAI | $2.16 | 30.7 | $2.57 | -16% | -9.62% | -20.88% | -71.95% | -43.1% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| AI Power and Clean Energy | BE | $221.31 | 36.5 | $271.38 | -18.4% | -21.1% | -18.04% | 92.29% | 2.3% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | CEG | $271.37 | 47.1 | $273.81 | -0.9% | -8.96% | 4.56% | -31.56% | -4.5% | 🔴 Broken |
| — | TAC (TransAlta) | $12.85 | 56 | $12.43 | 3.4% | -2.13% | 7.53% | -24.23% | -0.5% | 🔴 Broken |
| — | VST | $152.02 | 52.4 | $148.04 | 2.7% | -5.86% | 8.28% | -27.75% | -1.7% | 🔴 Broken |
| — | NEE | $79.8 | 55.3 | $77.39 | 3.1% | 3.13% | -0.71% | -6.17% | -8.6% | 🔴 Broken |
| — | SMR | $5.83 | 28.9 | $7.56 | -22.9% | -19.03% | -29.76% | -87.76% | -49.3% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | OKLO | $27.97 | 28.8 | $35.53 | -21.3% | -19.39% | -21.48% | -82.75% | -51.1% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | EOSE | $1.82 | 25 | $2.96 | -38.6% | -27.78% | -53.81% | -88.22% | -73.6% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | FSLR | $172.64 | 38.1 | $180.19 | -4.2% | -2.91% | -9.65% | -27.4% | -21.5% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | ENPH | $30.62 | 37.4 | $32.52 | -5.8% | -6.67% | -13.89% | -18.48% | -25.7% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | SEDG | $31.36 | 43.7 | $32.6 | -3.8% | -2.64% | -9.57% | -21.82% | -25.9% | 🔴 Broken |
| — | RUN | $7.3 | 37.8 | $7.81 | -6.5% | -4.45% | -11.73% | -63.75% | -43.7% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| Data Center and Networking | EQIX | $985.98 | 38.6 | $1022.15 | -3.5% | -3.91% | -2.97% | 21.31% | -1.4% | 🟡 Under test, oversold |
| — | DLR | $175.97 | 44 | $178.9 | -1.6% | -1.56% | -2.82% | 1.16% | -3.5% | 🟡 Under test |
| — | ANET | $176.98 | 31.6 | $204.44 | -13.4% | -18.34% | -10.41% | 21.21% | 8.8% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
| — | CSCO | $107.39 | 41.2 | $111.15 | -3.4% | -9.29% | -0.32% | 55.43% | 7.9% | 🟢 Intact |
| Telecom | T | $23.44 | 41.7 | $24.23 | -3.3% | 5.68% | -9.36% | -10.53% | -6.6% | 🔴 Broken |
| — | VZ | $44.79 | 43 | $45.55 | -1.7% | 7.54% | -9.99% | 10.98% | -3.9% | 🟡 Under test |
| — | TMUS | $159.1 | 43.3 | $161.98 | -1.8% | 7.08% | -9.74% | -29.74% | -15.9% | 🔴 Broken |
| — | BCE | $20.33 | 45.1 | $20.24 | 0.5% | 8.25% | -9.64% | -14.18% | -13.9% | 🔴 Broken |
| — | SKM | $31.96 | 33.2 | $35.09 | -8.9% | -6.66% | -9.59% | 47.89% | -4.2% | 🟡 Under test, oversold |
| AI ETFs | BOTZ | $33.02 | 30.9 | $35.19 | -6.2% | -6.93% | -4.9% | -9.51% | -10.3% | 🔴 Broken, oversold |
| — | ROBO | $75.3 | 32.1 | $80.44 | -6.4% | -7.33% | -2.91% | 11.69% | -4.5% | 🟡 Under test, oversold |
| — | AIQ | $62.02 | 35.2 | $65.62 | -5.5% | -6.88% | -1.57% | 22.74% | 6.8% | 🟢 Intact, oversold pullback |
Tier Analysis
| Tier | Names | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Capitulation (RSI under 25) | none | EOSE is at RSI 25, the edge of the band; QBTS (26.4) and WDC (27) follow |
| Oversold (RSI 25–40) | NVDA, AMD, MRVL, ARM, INTC, TSM, ASML, SNOW, NET, BE, MU, ANET, CRWD, PANW, SMH, AIQ, LITE (intact); MDB, STX, WDC, EQIX, SKM, ROBO, COHR, NBIS (under test); AVGO, SMCI, SOUN, BBAI, IONQ, RGTI, EOSE, FSLR, ENPH, RUN, SMR, OKLO, BOTZ, QBTS (broken); SKHY (no history) | The intact 17 are pullbacks. The under-test 8 have positive years and need a 200-day reclaim. The broken 14 are quantum, small reactors, solar, batteries, voice AI, Broadcom, Super Micro and the BOTZ robotics ETF |
| Neutral (RSI 40–70) | QCOM, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, TSLA, PLTR, AI, DDOG, PATH, CRM, NOW, ADBE, WDAY, ZS, ISRG, TEM, TAC, SEDG, CEG, VST, NEE, DLR, CSCO, FTNT, T, VZ, TMUS, BCE | Microsoft (57.3) and Intuitive Surgical (64.7) are the strongest readings; the carriers sit in the low 40s after their bounce |
| Extended (RSI 70+) | VEEV | RSI 71.2, 9% above its 20-day, 51.5% above its 200-day |
Entry Zones
Each level marks where a pullback stays a flag or turns into a break. These are conditions to watch, not orders.
| Stock | Zone / level | Confirmation | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | 200-day $174.04; 50-day $222.8 overhead | A close back above the 200-day, then the 50-day | Under test after closing under the 200-day; the year is still positive |
| NVDA | 200-day $202.97; 20-day $228.18 overhead | Holds the 200-day, then a close back above the 20-day | Intact trend, oversold pullback |
| ARM | 200-day $223.44; 20-day $286.72 overhead | Holds the 200-day | Thin cushion over the 200-day; nearly 50% off its high |
| AMD | 50-day $537.14; 200-day $394.25 | A close back above the 50-day | Closed under the 50-day; 34% over the 200-day |
| TSM, ASML | TSM 200-day $395.05; ASML 200-day $1577.22 | Both hold their 200-days | Intact, about 4% above the lines |
| MU | 200-day $717.84; 50-day $983.12 overhead | Holds the 200-day and turns back up | Memory leader; intact flag in a very long uptrend |
| LITE | 200-day $777.47; 50-day $931.65 overhead | Holds the 200-day | Deep flag; still 6% above the line |
| STX, WDC | STX 200-day $674.45; WDC 200-day $410.52 | A close back above each 200-day | Positive years, now under the lines |
| GOOGL | 200-day $340.9 | Holds the 200-day | Closed at the line, up on the year |
| MSFT | 20-day $520.22; 50-day $505.53 | A pullback that holds the 20-day | Steadiest large cap on the board |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA, TSM, ASML, AMD, MRVL, INTC | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Oversold pullbacks in intact trends; the 200-days are the lines |
| ARM | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Only 1.9% above its 200-day |
| MU, LITE, ANET, CRWD, PANW, NET, SNOW, DDOG, BE | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Deep pullbacks above their 200-days and up on the year |
| MSFT | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Steadiest large cap; above its 200-day by more than 20% |
| CRM, NOW, WDAY, META, AI, PATH, TEM | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Repairing: above the 200-day, down on the year |
| VEEV | 🟠 | ⚠️ Caution | RSI above 70 and 51.5% over its 200-day |
| NBIS, STX, WDC, COHR, GOOGL, MDB, EQIX, DLR | 🟡 | ⏳ Waiting | Under their 200-days with positive years; need a reclaim |
| SKHY | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | No long-horizon history; SK hynix is scheduled to report October 27 (provider estimate) |
| AVGO, SMCI, TSLA, ADBE, ISRG | 🔴 | ⏳ Waiting | Below their 200-days and down on the year; Broadcom's year turned negative this week |
| CEG, VST, TAC | 🔴 | ⏳ Waiting | Back under the 200-day after October 9's crossing; years negative |
| T, VZ, TMUS, BCE | 🔴 | ⏳ Waiting | Bounced but under their 200-days; low RSI is not a floor |
| FSLR, ENPH, SEDG, RUN, NEE | 🔴 | ⚠️ Caution | Below their 200-days and down on the year |
| SMR, OKLO, EOSE, SOUN, BBAI, IONQ, RGTI, QBTS | 🔴 | ❌ Avoid | Business-quality veto: pre-revenue or lottery-like, all under their 200-days with one-year losses of 52% or more |
What To Watch Next
- The neocloud 200-days. Nebius closed under its line; does it reclaim $174.04, or does the cohort keep falling with no name above its 200-day? Watch whether CoreWeave's credit-default swaps keep widening (CNBC, October 16).
- The chip 200-days. NVIDIA, Arm, TSMC and ASML sit 2% to 6% above their lines; a close under any of them turns the pullback into a test.
- Memory and storage. Western Digital is scheduled to report October 22 after the close, Seagate and SK hynix on October 27 (provider estimates). Does Micron hold its 200-day?
- Power. Bloom Energy is scheduled to report October 22 after the close; Constellation and Vistra need a reclaim of their 200-days.
- The megacap prints. Tesla and Meta are scheduled for October 21 after the close, Microsoft and Alphabet on October 28, Amazon and Intel on October 29, Palantir on November 2 and AMD on November 3 (earnings calendar).
- The carriers. AT&T and NextEra are scheduled for October 21 before the open and Verizon on October 26. Do the carriers hold their bounce under their 200-days?
Sources
- Tape data: the desk's pre-computed ai-scan summary, settled 2026-10-16 close, 70 names (ai-scan); the neocloud cohort line uses the neoclouds summary (neoclouds).
- Prior edition: 2026-10-09 AI scan (2026-10-09-ai-scan); bands and lists compared, numbers not reprinted.
- Market brief of October 15, 2026 (2026-10-15-market-brief): TSMC and ASML print results, the neocloud board's October 15 read.
- Earnings dates: the desk's earnings calendar (calendar, generated 2026-10-16); scheduled, not confirmed.
- Bloomberg, October 16, 2026: S&P 500 Suffers Worst Week Since June as AI Fears Hit Chipmakers — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/s-p-500-steady-as-warsh-boosts-expectations-of-rate-hold
- Bloomberg, October 16, 2026: Coreweave Slides 25% for the Week as AI Credit Concerns Grow | Closing Bell — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-10-16/coreweave-slides-on-ai-fears-closing-bell-video
- CNBC, October 16, 2026: Why did CoreWeave stock get crushed this week? Look to this corner of the debt market for clues — https://www.cnbc.com/investingclub/2026/10/16/coreweave-credit-default-swaps.html
- CNBC, October 15, 2026: Nvidia, AMD, Dell sink in global tech rout on AI funding worries — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/sk-hynix-samsung-softbank-stocks-asia-tech-rout-ai-funding-worries.html
- Security identity: SK hynix ADR (SKHY, Nasdaq, listed 2026-07-10) and TransAlta (TAC), per the desk's securities registry and watchlist notes.
- Cause checks: per-name news receipts for Nebius, Nvidia, Arm, Coherent and Lumentum were pulled 2026-10-15 and hold nothing dated to Friday's moves; Seagate's receipt (2026-10-16) holds only quote pages and the July results release; the Snowflake and Palantir receipts were pulled 2026-10-09, before this week, so their moves were not checked; no capture dated 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-16 in articles names Nebius;
research/stock-events/holds no entry for these names on 2026-10-16.
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