AI Scan
AI Scan
Five names on this board now trade above RSI 70 for the first time this stretch — Arm (+36.31% on the week with no dated catalyst on file), AMD and Intel (both riding a CPU-stock rally CNBC dated to September 21, the same day AMD crossed a $1 trillion intraday market cap), Zscaler and Meta — while the semiconductor and cybersecurity trades that led last week's advance kept extending instead of cooling. NextEra Energy dropped into capitulation at RSI 22.1, the board's only sub-25 print, and telecom fell for a second straight week with still no sourced cause behind any of the four names. Constellation Energy's two-week collapse finally stabilized — its RSI firmed rather than fell for the first time in three cycles. The board also grew by three names this cycle: Lumentum, Coherent and Nebius joined coverage, the last of them a member of the neocloud stack the desk tracks as a standing focus. All 70 names carry a settled Wednesday 2026-09-23 close.
LONG-HORIZON READ: a name whose short-window trend flag reads "down" but sits ABOVE its 200-day with a positive 1-year change is a deep pullback in an intact trend, never a breakdown. Only price below the 200-day paired with a weak or negative year is real structural damage — that distinction is called out explicitly below wherever a trend flag might otherwise mislead.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 A genuine extension week for semis and cybersecurity, with five names now trading above RSI 70 for the first time this stretch — set against a fresh capitulation print in AI power and a second straight week of unexplained telecom weakness |
| Biggest single move | ARM — +36.31% on the week and +39.27% over 30 days, RSI 57.7→71.1, 200-day cushion +33.0%→+58.2%, year +88.08%→+135.87%. No dated catalyst was found: its own news receipt carries only generic stock-quote pages and no earnings print falls in this window (checked `research/stock-events/`) |
| Cohort shift | A CPU-stock rally lifted the semis complex: CNBC (September 21) reported Intel surging 12%, the same day MarketWatch reported AMD crossing a $1 trillion intraday market cap — both names now trade above RSI 70 |
| Sharpest declines | Telecom fell again for a second straight week: VZ (RSI -7.4 to 34.6), BCE (-4.8 to 27.7), with no fresh, substantive news pulled on either name — the same unexplained pattern flagged last cycle |
| Improving, not breaking | CEG — after two straight weeks of decline, RSI firmed +7.4 to 43.8 and its 200-day gap narrowed from -13.0% to -9.4%, though its year (-21.62%) is still deteriorating slightly and nothing beyond the standing September equity raise is on file |
| Data caveat | Every ticker carries a fresh 2026-09-23 close. TAC's news pull remains FAILED since April; SMCI (Aug 28), WDAY (Sep 2), STX (Jul 31), EQIX (Jun 21) and SKM (Jul 29) carry news receipts too old to speak to this week's moves — those names are marked "news not pulled for this move," not "no news" |
What's Going On
The week's real trade was a broad CPU-stock rally with an actual dated catalyst behind it. CNBC reported Intel surging 12% on September 21 in a rally it attributed to CPU stocks generally, and MarketWatch reported the same day that AMD crossed a $1 trillion intraday market cap, the 14th U.S. company to reach that mark. Both names now trade above RSI 70 — Intel at 70.3 with a year that improved from +255.25% to +317.86%, and AMD at 71.0 with its year now at +281.98% and its 200-day cushion widened to +70.4%. Qualcomm rode the same wave, +10.98% on the week to RSI 66.4. Arm's move dwarfs all of them in percentage terms — +36.31% on the week, its cushion jumping from +33.0% to +58.2% above its 200-day and its year nearly doubling from +88.08% to +135.87% — but no dated item in its own news receipt or in research/stock-events/ explains it; the receipt carries only generic stock-quote aggregator pages, and no earnings print for Arm falls inside this window. That is the largest unexplained single-week move on this board and the one most worth a second week's confirmation before treating the extension as durable.
Meta also crossed into overbought territory, RSI 65.8→77.0, the board's highest reading, with its year improving sharply from -14.67% to -1.5% — the longest-running repair on this board is close to turning its trailing year positive for the first time. No dated catalyst was found for the week's specific move; its receipt carries only generic quote pages. Datadog and MongoDB both posted large RSI gains (DDOG +11.1 to 60.0, MDB +10.9 to 59.4) without a dated cause on file either. Broadcom is the one semis name still cooling: RSI 45.5→44.4, still the group's only sub-200-day name, though a Yahoo Finance item (September 21) carries its chief executive pushing back on "AI slowdown" concerns and reiterating unchanged targets — a defensive framing rather than a catalyst for a move, and Broadcom's tape didn't move much on it either way.
Cybersecurity kept extending the re-rate flagged last cycle. Zscaler rose again, RSI 63.3→70.5, crossing above RSI 70 for the first time and widening its 200-day cushion to +27.8%, though its year is still -25.87% — a repair still in progress, not a completed one. CrowdStrike (RSI 68.9, cushion now +76.4%) and Palo Alto Networks (RSI 62.7, cushion +61.6%) both extended without a fresh dated item explaining the specific week. The board grew by three names this cycle: Lumentum and Coherent, both optical/photonics names, and Nebius, a neocloud infrastructure provider the desk tracks as part of its standing AI-provider focus lane. Coherent's inclusion lines up with a dated catalyst — the company reported fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2026 results on September 22 — while Nebius's addition follows a Yahoo Finance item (September 20) describing a price increase for its cloud services, framed as a signal against a well-known short position in the name. Lumentum's own news receipt was last pulled September 16, before this week's window, so nothing on file speaks to its specific move this week.
The damaged corners are AI power and telecom. NextEra Energy fell into capitulation at RSI 22.1, the board's only sub-25 print, though it remains the group's one name with a positive trailing year (+6.5%). Eleven of the group's twelve names still sit below their 200-day. Constellation Energy is the exception worth flagging: after two straight weeks of decline that took it to 13.0% below its 200-day, its RSI firmed this week (36.4→43.8) and its 200-day gap narrowed to -9.4% — a stabilization, not a repair, since its year is still slightly deteriorating (-21.07%→-21.62%) and nothing beyond the standing September equity raise is on file. Telecom fell again across the board with no sourced cause: Verizon's RSI dropped 7.4 points and BCE's 4.8, and neither name's news receipt carries a substantive item dated inside this week — the same unexplained pattern the desk flagged last cycle, now running two weeks. Quantum names mostly bounced (IONQ +15.47% on the week, RGTI +8.25%) while staying deeply below their 200-day with double-digit negative years — a bounce, not a turn, consistent with the standing read on this cohort.
What Changed Since the 2026-09-18 Scan
- Five names crossed above RSI 70 for the first time this stretch: ARM (57.7→71.1), AMD (65.4→71.0), INTC (61.7→70.3), ZS (63.3→70.5), META (65.8→77.0). Last cycle's highest reading was TEM at 67.8.
- ARM posted the board's largest move by far: +36.31% on the week, +20.66% in price terms from $275.61 to $332.56, 200-day cushion +33.0%→+58.2%, year +88.08%→+135.87% — no dated catalyst found in its news receipt or in
research/stock-events/. - A CPU-stock rally is on the record: CNBC (Sept 21) reported Intel surging 12%; MarketWatch (Sept 21) reported AMD crossing a $1 trillion intraday market cap the same day. Both now trade above RSI 70.
- NextEra Energy fell into capitulation: RSI 32.7→22.1 (-10.6), the board's only sub-25 print, though it remains the AI-power group's one name with a positive year.
- CEG stabilized after two straight weeks of decline: RSI +7.4 (36.4→43.8), 200-day gap narrowed -13.0%→-9.4%, though its year is still fractionally negative-deepening (-21.07%→-21.62%).
- The board grew by three names: Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR), both optical/photonics, and Nebius (NBIS), a neocloud provider — Coherent's addition lines up with fourth-quarter/full-year fiscal 2026 results reported September 22; Nebius's follows a September 20 report of a cloud-services price increase.
- Telecom fell for a second straight week with no sourced cause: VZ -7.4 RSI (42.0→34.6), BCE -4.8 (32.5→27.7); neither name's receipt carries a substantive item dated inside the window.
- GOOGL cooled sharply: RSI -9.9 (55.0→45.1), price -3.35%, 200-day cushion cut to exactly 0% — now sitting right on the line.
- BOTZ's year flipped negative: +0.23%→-1.04%, while ROBO's cushion widened slightly to +2.9% — the two robotics funds continue to diverge from the AI-weighted funds (AIQ +34.04% year, SMH +86.95%).
- The oversold band widened from 7 names to 9: CEG climbed out (43.8, now neutral); ADBE, FSLR and VZ fell in; NEE deepened into capitulation.
- The quantum/speculative cohort mostly bounced but stayed broken: IONQ +15.47% on the week (RSI 48.7→57.2), RGTI +8.25% (49.1→50.3), while BBAI and SOUN stayed the deepest in the cohort, both still 25-33% below their 200-day.
- MU's earnings print (flagged last cycle for September 30) has not yet arrived — still the largest scheduled event ahead on this board.
How To Read The Board
RSI below 25 is capitulation. RSI 25-40 is oversold — check the trend and the long-horizon numbers before treating it as a buy signal, because several names here fell into this band while remaining well above their 200-day. RSI 40-70 is neutral-to-healthy, above 70 is extended. "vs SMA" is distance from the 20-day average, short-term positioning only. "1Y%" and "vs SMA200" are the long-horizon check: a red short-window trend flag paired with price above the 200-day and a positive year is a deep pullback, not a breakdown; the reverse is real structural damage. Where a cause is named below it comes from a dated item in that name's news receipt or a dated capture; where the receipt is stale or failed, the scan says "news not pulled for this move" rather than implying nothing happened.
Price Tables by Group
Semis & Foundry
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | $332.56 | 71.1 | $262.52 | +26.7% | +36.31% | +39.27% | +135.87% | +58.2% | strong-up | 🔴 Overbought, largest move on the board, cause unknown |
| AMD | $614.61 | 71.0 | $512.99 | +19.8% | +19.92% | +34.56% | +281.98% | +70.4% | strong-up | 🟠 Overbought, $1T market-cap milestone Sept 21 |
| INTC | $122.60 | 70.3 | $101.04 | +21.3% | +21.33% | +40.50% | +317.86% | +56.5% | strong-up | 🟠 Overbought, CPU-stock rally sourced Sept 21 |
| QCOM | $197.24 | 66.4 | $177.77 | +11.0% | +6.71% | +24.42% | +16.35% | +16.8% | strong-up | 🟢 Rode the CPU rally, cushion widened |
| MRVL | $260.90 | 63.1 | $231.17 | +12.9% | +13.58% | +13.79% | +249.64% | +62.2% | strong-up | 🟢 Firmed hard, huge year intact, no dated cause |
| TSM | $446.57 | 60.6 | $427.35 | +4.5% | +6.91% | +8.89% | +57.96% | +17.0% | strong-up | 🟢 Firmed, intact trend |
| SMCI | $41.44 | 60.0 | $38.55 | +7.5% | +12.46% | +17.83% | -11.81% | +30.6% | strong-up | 🟡 Above its 200-day, year still repairing |
| NVDA | $225.51 | 55.7 | $221.15 | +2.0% | +5.43% | +8.17% | +26.39% | +13.3% | strong-up | 🟢 Firmed, cushion widened |
| ASML | $1,744.61 | 55.0 | $1,687.19 | +3.4% | +8.89% | +0.26% | +81.07% | +14.9% | strong-up | 🟢 Firmed, comfortably above its 200-day |
| AVGO | $354.99 | 44.4 | $359.23 | -1.2% | +4.56% | -1.05% | +4.74% | -3.7% | down | 🔴 Group's only sub-200-day name, CEO pushed back on AI-slowdown talk |
Read: Three names — Arm, AMD, Intel — now trade above RSI 70, a first for this board this stretch. AMD and Intel's extension has a dated catalyst on record; Arm's does not, and its move is by far the largest, which makes it the name on this table most in need of a second week's confirmation before its extension is trusted. Broadcom remains the group's one name below its 200-day.
Memory / Storage
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | $1,071.88 | 62.2 | $979.69 | +9.4% | +15.69% | +17.73% | +544.12% | +64.2% | strong-up | 🟢 Deepest cushion on the board, earnings still ahead |
| STX | $923.86 | 60.1 | $842.55 | +9.7% | +17.96% | +16.26% | +304.97% | +46.9% | strong-up | 🟢 Firmed hard, historic year intact |
| WDC | $473.69 | 54.0 | $451.23 | +5.0% | +13.60% | +8.80% | +329.65% | +21.3% | weak-down | 🟢 Firmed, historic year intact |
Read: All three continue to hold extraordinary trailing years with large cushions, and all three firmed this week. Micron's scheduled print has not yet landed — still the largest scheduled event ahead on this board.
Cloud Hyperscalers
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | $744.10 | 77.0 | $641.76 | +15.9% | +10.51% | +33.11% | -1.50% | +19.0% | up | 🔴 Overbought, board's highest RSI, year nearly turned positive |
| TSLA | $380.12 | 60.6 | $363.21 | +4.7% | +6.16% | +8.93% | -10.74% | -4.1% | weak-up | 🟡 Improving but still below its 200-day |
| MSFT | $500.59 | 56.2 | $499.41 | +0.2% | +2.10% | +2.73% | -1.70% | +15.9% | strong-up | 🟡 Firmed, year still slightly negative |
| GOOGL | $337.83 | 45.1 | $341.99 | -1.2% | -1.47% | -2.94% | +34.24% | 0.0% | down | 🟡 Cooled sharply, cushion now exactly at the line |
| AMZN | $249.27 | 44.1 | $255.18 | -2.3% | +1.35% | -4.88% | +12.94% | +3.6% | weak-down | 🟢 Cooled, intact trend |
Read: Meta's overbought print is the group's headline, its year nearly turning positive for the first time in this stretch, though no dated catalyst was found for this week's specific move. Alphabet is the group's one concerning name this week: its 200-day cushion fell from +3.6% to exactly 0%, meaning next week's tape decides whether it joins the group's confirmed-damage names or holds its intact trend.
AI Security
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZS | $214.45 | 70.5 | $184.44 | +16.3% | +11.94% | +21.81% | -25.87% | +27.8% | strong-up | 🟠 Overbought, repair still in progress, year still negative |
| CRWD | $262.49 | 68.9 | $225.55 | +16.4% | +8.75% | +37.66% | +116.88% | +76.4% | strong-up | 🟢 Deepest cushion in the group, extended without a fresh dated cause |
| FTNT | $178.74 | 64.6 | $165.54 | +8.0% | +4.06% | +17.60% | +109.62% | +55.1% | strong-up | 🟢 Extending, doubled year intact |
| PANW | $393.30 | 62.7 | $358.79 | +9.6% | +4.70% | +12.08% | +93.51% | +61.6% | strong-up | 🟢 Extending, cushion widened further |
Read: All four names extended last cycle's re-rate; Zscaler crossed above RSI 70 for the first time even though its trailing year is still deeply negative at -25.87% — this is a repair still in progress, not a completed one, and the 27.8% cushion above its 200-day is now the level that matters if the extension gives back.
Data / Software / SaaS
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | $191.79 | 66.9 | $177.46 | +8.1% | +10.01% | +9.04% | +5.06% | +26.2% | strong-up | 🟡 Strong week, year still barely positive |
| NET | $352.33 | 65.4 | $311.64 | +13.1% | +8.53% | +25.68% | +57.81% | +53.1% | strong-up | 🟢 Strong week, cushion widened again |
| DDOG | $251.49 | 60.0 | $229.24 | +9.7% | +8.97% | +11.39% | +82.92% | +39.2% | strong-up | 🟢 Big RSI gain, no dated cause found |
| MDB | $428.36 | 59.4 | $396.83 | +7.9% | +13.82% | +6.37% | +34.30% | +24.3% | strong-up | 🟢 Big RSI gain, no dated cause found |
| ANET | $203.47 | 57.9 | $196.13 | +3.7% | +3.00% | +8.14% | +41.21% | +30.2% | strong-up | 🟢 Firmed, strong year |
| NOW | $140.78 | 57.8 | $138.29 | +1.8% | +0.69% | +9.94% | -24.12% | +20.4% | strong-up | 🟡 Repair continuing, year still deeply negative |
| AI | $10.86 | 56.6 | $10.59 | +2.5% | +2.84% | +7.42% | -40.07% | +4.2% | up | 🔴 Off its 200-day line, year still deeply negative |
| SNOW | $334.81 | 54.4 | $330.84 | +1.2% | +1.14% | +3.73% | +49.78% | +49.5% | strong-up | 🟢 Steady, deep cushion |
| CRM | $237.58 | 52.9 | $247.38 | -4.0% | -5.17% | +13.64% | -2.85% | +17.9% | strong-up | 🟡 Cooled on the week, year near flat |
| WDAY | $192.38 | 52.6 | $193.49 | -0.6% | +2.46% | -3.40% | -19.95% | +21.5% | strong-up | 🟡 Good week, year still negative |
| EQIX | $1,037.66 | 49.2 | $1,037.00 | +0.1% | +2.12% | -1.66% | +29.18% | +6.1% | weak-down | 🟡 Steady, cushion thin |
| DLR | $181.45 | 43.3 | $185.58 | -2.2% | +0.21% | -3.77% | +4.21% | +0.6% | weak-down | 🟡 Cushion nearly gone — the data-center REIT to watch |
| CSCO | $106.43 | 40.8 | $109.60 | -2.9% | -1.22% | -3.45% | +57.58% | +10.1% | weak-down | 🟢 Cooled, strong year |
| ADBE | $240.69 | 39.2 | $264.11 | -8.9% | -3.92% | -12.88% | -33.47% | -8.7% | strong-down | 🔴 Below its 200-day, year deepened again |
| PATH | $13.04 | 37.5 | $15.31 | -14.8% | -4.33% | -21.30% | +4.07% | +1.3% | weak-down | 🟡 Fifth straight week falling, cushion down to 1.3% |
Read: Cloudflare and MongoDB were the group's strong movers without a sourced catalyst behind either. Digital Realty's cushion is now down to 0.6%, the thinnest in the group, and UiPath extended its multi-week decline to a cushion of just 1.3% — both are the names to watch for a 200-day crossing next. Adobe stays the group's confirmed breakdown.
AI Power / Energy
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | $275.19 | 60.0 | $250.53 | +9.8% | +1.91% | +34.88% | +255.63% | +36.7% | strong-up | 🟢 Group's one clean leader |
| OKLO | $38.82 | 46.6 | $39.54 | -1.8% | +8.98% | -2.19% | -72.79% | -37.0% | strong-down | 🔴 Bounced, deeply broken |
| SMR | $8.68 | 46.0 | $9.28 | -6.4% | +4.58% | -4.09% | -79.15% | -29.9% | strong-down | 🔴 Worst year on the board |
| TAC | $11.95 | 45.1 | $12.09 | -1.1% | 0.00% | -1.24% | -12.26% | -8.0% | strong-down | 🔴 Flat week, news pull FAILED since April |
| SEDG | $33.35 | 44.4 | $34.44 | -3.2% | -3.84% | +10.83% | -7.18% | -20.8% | strong-down | 🔴 Bad week, still well below its 200-day |
| EOSE | $3.58 | 43.8 | $3.76 | -4.7% | -9.14% | +3.47% | -64.76% | -54.1% | strong-down | 🔴 Deepest damage in the group |
| CEG | $263.88 | 43.8 | $276.12 | -4.4% | +1.68% | -3.49% | -21.62% | -9.4% | strong-down | 🟡 Stabilizing after two straight weeks of decline |
| VST | $137.97 | 41.4 | $142.68 | -3.3% | -1.72% | +1.70% | -32.45% | -11.5% | strong-down | 🔴 Below its 200-day, year still deteriorating |
| RUN | $8.34 | 40.1 | $8.70 | -4.2% | +0.85% | -6.50% | -49.30% | -40.0% | strong-down | 🔴 Deeply broken |
| FSLR | $191.97 | 39.6 | $202.96 | -5.4% | +0.47% | -7.84% | -11.01% | -15.5% | strong-down | 🔴 Fell into oversold, still deteriorating |
| ENPH | $33.07 | 34.1 | $36.28 | -8.9% | -7.00% | -11.05% | -11.48% | -19.8% | strong-down | 🔴 Fell into oversold, deteriorating |
| NEE | $77.02 | 22.1 | $81.87 | -5.9% | -4.17% | -8.42% | +6.50% | -12.1% | strong-down | 🔴 Board's only capitulation print |
Read: Eleven of twelve names sit below their 200-day and ten carry a negative year — still the board's most damaged corner. NextEra's drop into capitulation is the group's headline this week; Constellation Energy is the one name showing real improvement, its RSI firming for the first time in three cycles even though its year is still fractionally deteriorating. Bloom Energy remains the group's sole clean leader.
AI Healthcare
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEM | $76.59 | 65.3 | $67.71 | +13.1% | +9.46% | +15.75% | -8.96% | +36.3% | strong-up | 🟢 Cooled slightly off last cycle's spike, cushion still deep |
| ISRGE | $398.30 | 62.0 | $375.70 | +6.0% | +4.19% | +6.62% | -11.04% | -12.0% | weak-up | 🟡 Still below its 200-day, repair continuing |
| VEEV | $270.75 | 61.3 | $268.60 | +0.8% | +2.21% | +8.97% | -2.90% | +35.7% | strong-up | 🟢 Firmed, deep cushion, year nearly flat |
Read: Tempus AI cooled slightly after last cycle's violent re-rate but holds its gains, its cushion still at +36.3%. Intuitive Surgical's repair keeps going but 12.0% below its 200-day is still 12.0% below.
Quantum / Speculative AI
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ | $42.54 | 57.2 | $39.09 | +8.8% | +15.47% | +3.60% | -43.39% | -2.7% | weak-up | 🟡 Best bounce in the cohort, nearly back to its 200-day |
| RGTI | $16.01 | 50.3 | $15.57 | +2.9% | +8.25% | -2.20% | -49.11% | -14.4% | weak-up | 🟡 Bounced, still deeply below its 200-day |
| QBTS | $16.81 | 44.6 | $17.03 | -1.3% | +3.32% | -10.01% | -38.92% | -20.6% | strong-down | 🔴 Bounced on the week, month still deeply negative |
| BBAI | $2.84 | 44.0 | $2.92 | -2.7% | +4.03% | -7.49% | -64.46% | -30.8% | strong-down | 🔴 Deeply broken |
| SOUN | $6.01 | 38.3 | $6.50 | -7.5% | +1.35% | -14.14% | -66.70% | -24.9% | strong-down | 🔴 Deepest in the cohort |
Read: Every name in this cohort bounced this week and every one remains between 2.7% and 30.8% below its 200-day with a double-digit negative year — IonQ is the closest to reclaiming its 200-day, but this remains a bounce, not a turn, for the cohort as a whole.
Telecom / Connectivity
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T | $25.30 | 49.3 | $25.76 | -1.8% | -2.17% | -1.52% | -12.12% | +0.6% | up | 🟡 Cushion nearly gone, year negative |
| SKM | $35.85 | 45.4 | $37.25 | -3.8% | +1.41% | -10.37% | +64.00% | +11.7% | strong-up | 🟢 Bad month, group's only clean long-horizon profile |
| VZ | $46.52 | 34.6 | $49.56 | -6.1% | -6.51% | -7.24% | +7.31% | +0.7% | weak-down | 🟡 Second straight week down, still no sourced cause |
| TMUS | $165.66 | 36.8 | $177.21 | -6.5% | -6.01% | -9.29% | -30.83% | -13.9% | strong-down | 🔴 Confirmed damage, deepened |
| BCE | $21.61 | 27.7 | $23.02 | -6.1% | -3.96% | -9.39% | -7.01% | -9.5% | strong-down | 🔴 Fell into oversold, second-sharpest drop |
Read: The whole group fell again for a second straight week, and the desk still has no receipt that speaks to why. Verizon's year is still positive (+7.31%) with its cushion right at the line (+0.7%), so its drop reads as a deep pullback rather than confirmed damage for now; T-Mobile and BCE do not pass that check and both deepened further.
AI ETFs
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | $601.41 | 61.4 | $564.92 | +6.5% | +10.24% | +9.99% | +86.95% | +22.5% | strong-up | 🟢 Rode the CPU rally, huge trailing year |
| AIQ | $65.99 | 60.8 | $64.17 | +2.8% | +4.73% | +5.92% | +34.04% | +16.1% | strong-up | 🟢 Steady, group leader |
| ROBO | $80.21 | 51.1 | $79.47 | +0.9% | +3.42% | +0.30% | +19.68% | +2.9% | weak-down | 🟡 Cushion still thin, only 2.9% above its 200-day |
| BOTZ | $35.29 | 47.2 | $35.39 | -0.3% | +1.64% | +0.11% | -1.04% | -4.4% | strong-down | 🔴 Year flipped negative this week |
Read: The two AI-weighted funds continue to lead; the two robotics funds keep decoupling from them. BOTZ's year turned negative this week for the first time in this stretch, widening the split from AIQ's +34.04%.
Optical / Photonics & Neocloud (new this cycle)
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE | $937.00 | 54.1 | $912.92 | +2.6% | +1.91% | +12.87% | +471.38% | +29.6% | strong-up | 🟢 Historic year, news last pulled Sept 16 — not fresh for this week |
| NBIS | $226.61 | 52.3 | $219.57 | +3.2% | +8.23% | +7.44% | +110.21% | +39.3% | strong-up | 🟢 Neocloud price-hike report Sept 20, cushion deep |
| COHR | $300.60 | 50.8 | $290.55 | +3.5% | +3.68% | +9.11% | +175.05% | +5.5% | strong-up | 🟡 Fourth-quarter/full-year FY26 results reported Sept 22 |
Read: All three new additions carry strong trailing years and sit above their 200-day. Nebius is a member of the neocloud/AI-provider stack the desk tracks as a standing focus lane, and its September 20 price-increase report is the one dated catalyst among the three; Coherent's addition lines up with a fourth-quarter earnings report the same week, and Lumentum's own receipt is a week stale, so nothing on file speaks to its specific move.
Too-Young Regime
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Regime | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKHY | $189.28 | 58.4 | $177.18 | +6.8% | +8.24% | +21.83% | too-young | ⚠️ No 1-year or 200-day history yet — trend classification unavailable |
Read: SK hynix's US listing is still too young for a long-horizon read; its month remains strong but unclassifiable against a trend.
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
One name: NEE at 22.1 — the board's only sub-25 print, though it remains the AI-power group's one name with a positive trailing year (+6.5%).
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
Eight names: BCE (27.7), ENPH (34.1), VZ (34.6), TMUS (36.8), PATH (37.5), SOUN (38.3), ADBE (39.2), FSLR (39.6). The band widened from 7 to 9 total (including capitulation) since last cycle — CEG climbed out into neutral; ADBE, FSLR and VZ fell in. Only PATH still carries a positive year among this group.
Neutral-Strong (RSI 40+)
The remaining 61 names, five of them above RSI 70 for the first time this stretch: META (77.0), ARM (71.1), AMD (71.0), ZS (70.5), INTC (70.3). QCOM (66.4), PLTR (66.9) and NET (65.4) round out the top tier below that.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | Watch for the retest | Board's largest move, no dated catalyst, now overbought | 🔍 Watch |
| AMD, INTC | Watch for the retest | Overbought on a sourced CPU-stock rally, historic years | 🔍 Watch |
| QCOM, MRVL, TSM, SMCI, NVDA, ASML | Hold | Firm, intact long-horizon checks | 🔒 Hold |
| AVGO | Watch | Group's only sub-200-day name, CEO defending targets | 🔍 Watch |
| MU, STX, WDC | Watch for exhaustion | Extraordinary years, deep cushions, Micron's print still ahead | 🔍 Watch |
| META | Watch for the retest | Overbought, year nearly turned positive, no dated cause | 🔍 Watch |
| TSLA, MSFT | Hold | Firming, intact trends | 🔒 Hold |
| GOOGL | Watch | Cushion cut to exactly 0% this week | 🔍 Watch |
| AMZN | Hold | Cooled slightly, intact trend | 🔒 Hold |
| ZS | Watch for the retest | Overbought, repair still in progress, year still -25.87% | 🔍 Watch |
| CRWD, FTNT, PANW | Hold | Extending, deep cushions | 🔒 Hold |
| NET, DDOG, MDB, ANET, SNOW, CSCO | Hold | Clean leaders, intact trends | 🔒 Hold |
| PLTR, NOW, AI, CRM, WDAY | Watch | Good weeks against flat or negative years | 🔍 Watch |
| EQIX, DLR | Watch | Data-center REIT cushions thin, Digital Realty at 0.6% | 🔍 Watch |
| PATH | Watch | Fifth straight week down, cushion at 1.3% | 🔍 Watch |
| ADBE | Avoid | Below its 200-day, year deepened again | ⚠️ Avoid |
| BE | Hold | Group's clean leader | 🔒 Hold |
| CEG | Watch | Stabilizing but not yet repaired | 🔍 Watch |
| OKLO, SMR, TAC, SEDG, EOSE, VST, RUN, FSLR, ENPH | Avoid | Below their 200-day with negative years, most deteriorating | ⚠️ Avoid |
| NEE | Watch | Capitulation print, year still positive | 🔍 Watch |
| TEM, VEEV | Hold | Deep cushions, strong quarters | 🔒 Hold |
| ISRGE | Watch | Repairing, still below its 200-day | 🔍 Watch |
| IONQ, RGTI | Watch | Bounced, still below their 200-day | 🔍 Watch |
| QBTS, BBAI, SOUN | Avoid | Bounces inside unrepaired breakdowns | ⚠️ Avoid |
| SKM | Hold | Group's only clean long-horizon profile | 🔒 Hold |
| VZ, T | Watch | Sharp drops, no sourced cause, Verizon's year still positive | 🔍 Watch |
| TMUS, BCE | Avoid | Confirmed damage, deepened this week | ⚠️ Avoid |
| SMH, AIQ | Hold | Fund leadership intact | 🔒 Hold |
| BOTZ, ROBO | Watch | Robotics decoupling from AI; BOTZ's year turned negative | 🔍 Watch |
| LITE, NBIS, COHR | Watch (new coverage) | Newly added this cycle, strong trailing years | 🔍 Watch |
| SKHY | Watch (research) | Too-young regime, no long-horizon read available | 🔍 Watch |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Board's biggest move, overbought, cause unknown |
| AMD, INTC | 🟠 | 🔍 Watch | Overbought on a sourced CPU rally |
| QCOM, MRVL, TSM, SMCI, NVDA, ASML | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Intact long-horizon checks |
| AVGO | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Only sub-200-day semis name |
| MU, STX, WDC | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Historic years, Micron's print still ahead |
| META | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Overbought, year nearly turned positive |
| TSLA, MSFT, AMZN | 🟡 | 🔒 Hold | Firming, intact trends |
| GOOGL | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Cushion cut to exactly 0% |
| ZS | 🟠 | 🔍 Watch | Overbought, year still deeply negative |
| CRWD, FTNT, PANW | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Extending, deep cushions |
| NET, DDOG, MDB, ANET, SNOW, CSCO | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Clean leaders |
| PLTR, NOW, AI, CRM, WDAY | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Good weeks, weak years |
| EQIX, DLR | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Data-center REIT cushions thinning |
| PATH | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Fifth straight week down |
| ADBE | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Confirmed breakdown |
| BE | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Group's clean leader |
| CEG | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Stabilizing after two collapse weeks |
| OKLO, SMR, TAC, SEDG, EOSE, VST, RUN, FSLR, ENPH | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Deeply broken |
| NEE | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Capitulation print, year still positive |
| TEM, VEEV | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Deep cushions |
| ISRGE | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Repairing, still below its 200-day |
| IONQ, RGTI | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Bounced, not turned |
| QBTS, BBAI, SOUN | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Bounces, not turns |
| SKM | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Telecom's only clean profile |
| VZ, T | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Sharp drops without receipts |
| TMUS, BCE | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Confirmed damage |
| SMH, AIQ | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Fund leadership intact |
| BOTZ, ROBO | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Robotics decoupling, BOTZ's year flipped negative |
| LITE, NBIS, COHR | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | New coverage this cycle |
| SKHY | ⚠️ | 🔍 Watch | Too-young regime |
What To Watch Next
- Whether Arm's 36.31% week survives a retest. The move is the largest on this board and carries no dated catalyst; a give-back of even a third of it would pull the stock back through RSI 70 and cut deeply into the new +58.2% cushion.
- Whether the CPU-stock rally (Intel +12% on September 21, AMD's $1 trillion milestone the same day) holds a second week or fades as a one-day-driven pop — both names are now overbought.
- Whether telecom's unexplained second straight losing week gets a sourced cause, or resolves as part of the same rate-driven repricing hitting utilities and real estate on the broader market dashboard this week.
- Whether Constellation Energy's stabilization (RSI +7.4, cushion narrowing) becomes a genuine repair or was one calmer week inside a still-deteriorating year.
- Whether GOOGL's 200-day cushion — now at exactly 0% — resolves up into the intact column or down into confirmed damage next week.
- Whether Meta's trailing year, now at -1.5%, crosses into positive territory for the first time in this stretch, and whether its RSI 77 print gives back before it gets there.
- Whether Digital Realty (cushion 0.6%) or UiPath (cushion 1.3%) cross below their 200-day next — both are now the thinnest positive readings on this board outside of GOOGL.
- Micron's scheduled print, still the largest scheduled event ahead on this board.
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close — ai-scan.
- News receipts checked for cause attribution: stocks{ARM,AMD,MRVL,INTC,META,NVDA,NBIS,LITE,COHR,CEG,VZ,T,TMUS,BCE,TAC,P}/news/latest.json`.
- Scheduled-event check:
research/stock-events/(Arm, AMD, Marvell, Intel, Meta, Coherent, Lumentum, Constellation Energy — no earnings prints fall inside this window). - CPU-stock rally and AMD milestone: 2026-09-21-cnbc-intel-surges-12-as-cpu-stocks-rally-here-s-what-s-driving-th-108365666, 2026-09-21-marketwatch-amd-hits-a-major-milestone-as-ai-stocks-blaze-higher--mktw-0005244006.
- Broadcom management commentary: 2026-09-21-yahoofinance-our-targets-haven-t-changed-broadcom-s-ceo-pushes-back-on-th-m-112507800-html.
- Nebius price increase: 2026-09-20-yahoofinance-nebius-s-price-hike-suggests-michael-burry-made-a-mistake-an-l-142209026-html.
- Prior cycle for comparison: 2026-09-18-ai-scan.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.