Self-recommending!
773 likes · 37 retweets · 22 replies · 2025-10-08T20:19:20.000Z
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Driving around (where else?) SF dropping off some special packages . Favorite stop so far:
480 likes · 20 retweets · 34 replies · 2025-10-08T20:13:43.000Z
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784 likes · 59 retweets · 54 replies · 2025-08-12T02:06:04.000Z
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When will AI systems be able to carry out long projects independently? In new research, we find a kind of “Moore’s Law for AI agents”: the length of tasks that AIs can do is doubling about every 7 months.
4838 likes · 1403 retweets · 168 replies · 2025-03-19T15:39:39.000Z
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The “compressed 21st century”: a great essay on what it might look like to make 100 years of progress in 10 years post AGI (if all goes well). Favorite phrase: “a country of geniuses in a datacenter”
1098 likes · 117 retweets · 46 replies · 2024-10-11T21:08:15.000Z
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Leopold Aschenbrenner’s SITUATIONAL AWARENESS predicts we are on course for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by 2027, followed by superintelligence shortly thereafter, posing transformative opportunities and risks. This is an excellent and important read :
3557 likes · 1011 retweets · 0 replies · 2024-09-25T18:03:50.000Z
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what it looks like when deep learning is hitting a wall:
630 likes · 41 retweets · 19 replies · 2024-09-12T18:36:14.000Z
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The foundational primary source under this workspace's AI-compute-buildout
thesis cluster, archived here with full text. Aschenbrenner published this 165-page
essay series on 2024-06-04 (updated 2024-06-06); it is the document the
ai-power-bottleneck perspective, the ai-power watchlist, and the
aschenbrenner-13f source profile all descend from. Until now only the
announcement tweet and the downstream 13F were in the corpus — the essay
body itself was never archived. This event is that…
Status: primary source, full text in body below. This is a 2024 forecast — read predictions as the author's dated priors, not established fact. still comes only from precompute summaries, never from this essay. Canonical PDF (165pp, re-fetchable from pdf_url) is kept locally at pdf_local per the repo's "raw heavy bodies stay local" convention; the durable, committed primary research is this full-text event.
Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead — Leopold Aschenbrenner (June 2024)
Virtually nobody is pricing in what's coming in AI. I wrote an essay series on the AGI strategic picture: from the trendlines in deep learning and counting the OOMs, to the international situation and The Project. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead
9613 likes · 1907 retweets · 382 replies · 2024-06-04T15:38:30.000Z
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X@tamarawinter tweetCaptured Oct 8 '25 Driving around (where else?) SF dropping off some special packag...
X@METR_Evals tweetCaptured Mar 19 '25 When will AI systems be able to carry out long projects independ...
X@leopoldasch tweetCaptured Oct 11 '24 The “compressed 21st century”: a great essay on what it might lo...