Leaders and laggards
279 advancing 748 declining 59.5% above the 200-day Color is 7-day price direction, not a buy or sell call.
Leaders
top 7D gainersLaggards
top 7D losers1. The Read
The heaviest print night of the season sorted the AI trade into toll collectors and toll payers — with the same bill visible on both sides of the ledger. Microsoft collected: revenue $90.0B (+18%, a beat), adjusted EPS $4.74 vs $4.24 expected, Azure +43% and past $100B for the full year, commercial backlog +84% to $678B, stock up ~4% after hours. Meta paid: revenue beat at $60.8B (+27%), but EPS of $6.18 missed a $7.22 bar by 14% — the AI build-out is eating the profit line of the one mega-cap that buys compute without owning a cloud to resell it. Qualcomm jumped ~14% after hours on its Modular acquisition and a raised long-range guide; Arm printed a record $1.49B with data-center royalties doubling. The sellers of compute, IP, and memory keep getting paid; the pure buyers are starting to show the strain.
Seoul spent the same two days demonstrating what the unwind looks like when it runs on margin. The KOSPI fell 10.8% Tuesday and 6.0% Wednesday — circuit breakers both days — now roughly 40% below its June 19 peak, with over 360,000 leveraged retail accounts force-liquidated (62% of them under 35, per Citi) and the finance ministry convening an emergency session with the central bank. So far the response is leverage-ETF curbs, not a bailout. Against that: SK hynix reported a record quarter the very same morning — ₩79.3T revenue, a 76% operating margin, HBM4 already shipping — which is the clearest sign this is a positioning flush, not an earnings event. The crowd-surrender markers the desk now tracks mechanically read not yet: defensives are bidding but the S&P sits only ~3% off its high, and capitulation language across the corpus is still at baseline. Bottoming zones need either broader damage or more time.
The desk's own machinery leaned out of the way tonight: exit rules closed the momentum book's NVDA, plus NBIS, CIEN, AEHR, and BESIY across the paper books, and the ETF-rotation bot sat in cash rather than buy a pullback with no confirmation. SK hynix's US line (SKHY) entered coverage today with the same discipline: down a third from its debut high, record fundamentals, and still no base — the call stays watch, with the first reclaim level marked at $151.
Watch Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, and KLA report — Amazon is the next "toll payer" test after Meta's miss; whether Seoul can close a session without a circuit breaker; and whether memory names can stop going down on good news, which is how these flushes end.
2. What Changed Since the Last Brief
Screen CROSSINGS between the previous brief's close ( ) and this one — a name appears only on the session it crossed, not for as long as it stays there. Every name carries its before → after.
New oversold (51) — AAUC RSI 34.5 → 20.8, ATEN RSI 32.1 → 25.5, MP RSI 30.3 → 26.4, PSIX RSI 30.5 → 26.7, MOD RSI 34.1 → 27, INVZ RSI 31 → 27.1, VRT RSI 37 → 27.1, VSH RSI 30.3 → 27.4, EME RSI 32.3 → 27.8, SPXC RSI 36 → 28, ENTL RSI 31.2 → 28.1, ICLN RSI 30.3 → 28.2, RMBS RSI 30.6 → 28.2, LYSDY RSI 32 → 28.3, PWR RSI 32.3 → 28.3, TAN RSI 30.7 → 28.3, +35 more.
New overbought (18) — GRMN RSI 62.2 → 79.8, DBX RSI 69.6 → 73.8, EAT RSI 68.2 → 71.9, DPZ RSI 68.5 → 71.8, BIPC RSI 67.1 → 71.6, SSPC RSI 68.4 → 71.2, TXRH RSI 68.2 → 71.2, GRND RSI 67.4 → 71, SPCQ RSI 67.6 → 70.9, MBIN RSI 51.2 → 70.7, ACN RSI 66.3 → 70.5, CALM RSI 69.8 → 70.4, CHEF RSI 63.4 → 70.4, SFD RSI 68.2 → 70.2, DINO RSI 69.2 → 70.1, FXI RSI 67 → 70.1, +2 more.
Golden crossings (5) — BRK-B -0.07% → 0.03%, BWIN -0.52% → 0.17%, LZAGY -0.23% → 0.06%, UAE 0% → 0.05%, VKTX -0.09% → 0.15%.
Death crossings (3) — ASTS 0.45% → -0.08%, CELC 0.25% → -0.97%, XNDU 0.56% → 0%.
New monsters (13) — LAD 19.1% → 41.8%, NEO 24.7% → 41.7%, SNOW 28.8% → 34.7%, NP 22.4% → 34.6%, EC 29.4% → 33.6%, EQNR 25.1% → 33.5%, TVE.TO 28.4% → 32.1%, GRND 27.5% → 32%, MUSA 29.1% → 31.8%, MBIN 18.5% → 31.5%, IMAX 27.2% → 30.6%, GEF 24.7% → 30.2%, CIB 29.9% → 30.1%.
Newly near a 52-week high (21) — HAE -5.47% → -2.18% from high, EOG -6.65% → -2.44% from high, GKOS -6.31% → -2.61% from high, GRMN -6.78% → -3.02% from high, MUSA -5.39% → -3.12% from high, DNTH -5.91% → -3.61% from high, SNOW -5.13% → -3.63% from high, RVTY -5.6% → -4.03% from high, FLNGE -5.19% → -4.05% from high, MBX -9.9% → -4.05% from high, WCLD -5.95% → -4.11% from high, LZAGY -6.2% → -4.39% from high, DINO -5.22% → -4.47% from high, MBIN -5.25% → -4.55% from high, SBUX -5.61% → -4.66% from high, CL -5.52% → -4.75% from high, +5 more.
Newly in an entry zone (3) — AVGO $370.32 · $328-$375, NVDA $190.01 · $185–195 buy zone (riding the rising SMA200 at $190.43) → SMA20 reclaim ~$207 = pop/first-trim, VZ $47.22 · $44-$48.
3. Focus List
No authored takes in this issue — the Take column shows each name's mechanical tape state.
4. Sector Scorecard
No authored lane assessments in this issue — the metrics are the record; the read lives in the chapters above.
5. The Front Page
Monster Watch · 135 of 1043 tracked names
Sector Rotation Radar · 68 themes
Flow means 30-day relative strength versus SPY, not dollars moving: Inflow beat SPY by more than 2 points, Outflow trailed by more than 2, and Neutral stayed inside that band.
reference_jasonl_capital_kopn_check.md). Kopin Corporation, $3.97 microcap. Claimed: MicroLED… AI Outflow -10.0% 30D Ark Outflow -11.8% 30D ARK Invest ETFs - tracking Cathie Wood's funds Airlines Outflow -12.2% 30D Airlines — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → margin expansion, leisure travel recovery. JETS ETF for broad exposure. (Removed 2026-05-04: HA absorbed by ALK via 2024 acquisition; SAVE bankrupt + delisted… Drone Defense Outflow -12.9% 30D Drone & counter-drone defense — offense (AVAV AeroVironment, AVEX AEVEX Corp — newly-public April 2026 full-stack drone + AI ISR, KTOS Kratos, RCAT Red Cat — small-cap manufacturer), counter-drone (EOPSF Electro Optic… AI Infra Outflow -14.7% 30D AI Infrastructure - hyperscalers (AMZN), GPUs (NVDA), lithography (ASML), power generation (TAC — TransAlta, Canadian IPP: hydro/wind/solar/battery/gas, NOT nuclear; label corrected 2026-06-19 from 'nuclear'), foundry… Energy Outflow -15.6% 30D Energy - data center power (BE, EOSE, TAC, CEG, GEV, TLN), nuclear (CEG), solar (FSLR, ENPH), utilities (NEE). Overlaps with ai-infra for power plays. EV Clean Energy Outflow -15.6% 30D EV makers + clean energy + related ETFs. Solar tracking (NXT Nextracker), industrial energy storage/batteries (ENS EnerSys). Lithium pure-plays added 2026-05-10 from… AI Infrastructure Outflow -16.1% 30D Complete AI Infrastructure - power, cooling, electrical, construction, data/optical connectivity (NOK Nokia), manufacturing, power connectors, REITs, materials, backup, water, AI compute providers (NBIS Nebius, OSS One… Nuclear Fuel Cycle Outflow -17.0% 30D Nuclear fuel cycle — AI-DRIVEN nuclear-demand thesis (sibling to ai-power-bottleneck, NOT a rotation away from AI; the mechanism is COMPLEMENTARY — hyperscaler data-center power demand pulls through the entire nuclear… Robotics Outflow -17.3% 30D Robotics & physical-AI across the stack — seeded 2026-06-27 from @mkfilko + @MMatters22596 robotics baskets (live rotation theme). Layers: brain/compute (NVDA Isaac/GR00T, BB/QNX OS), vision (CGNX, AMBA), lidar/sensors… Nearline Storage Outflow -20.8% 30D High-capacity storage makers and upstream media and component suppliers serving hyperscale and AI data centers. Humanoid Robotics Outflow -21.4% 30D Humanoid robotics components — sensors and motion control for the 2027-2028 humanoid wave. Component layer: VPG (Vishay Precision Group — strain gauges and force/torque sensors), MOG-A (Moog — precision motion… Spacex S1 Supply Chain Outflow -23.4% 30D SpaceX S-1 picks-and-shovels + space peers screen (2026-06-04): AI-compute/power/optical supply chain, space industrial base, disrupted incumbents, holders. Tied to spacex-s1 investigations. Semis Outflow -24.6% 30D Semiconductors - GPUs (NVDA, AMD), foundry (TSM), networking chips (AVGO, MRVL), architecture (ARM), mobile (QCOM), equipment (ASML, AMAT), packaging (AMKR), analog/power (ON), programmable-logic (LSCC - added… Grid Buildout Outflow -24.6% 30D Transformer, switchgear, electrical-equipment, and engineering contractors exposed to transmission and data-center grid buildout. Supply Chain Traces Outflow -31.2% 30D Supply chain trace discoveries — tickers found by our autonomous research agents across all traces. Tungsten (KMT Kennametal, CRS Carpenter; Almonty Layer-1 pure-play pending correct-ticker re-add — was wrongly tracked… AI Power Outflow -31.9% 30D AI Power Bottleneck — Leopold Aschenbrenner's watts-per-rack thesis. Fuel cells (BE), distributed power (PSIX, BW), nat gas (EQT, LBRT, PUMP), BTC miners pivoting to AI compute (CORZ, IREN, APLD, CIFR, HUT, BTDR, CLSK,… Quantum Computing Outflow -32.4% 30D Quantum-compute pure-plays. Gate/trapped-ion (IONQ), superconducting (RGTI/Rigetti), annealing (QBTS/D-Wave), photonic (QUBT/Quantum Computing Inc, XNDU/Xanadu — de-SPAC 2026-03), cold-atom/Rydberg (INFQ/Infleqtion —… CPU Shortage Supply Chain Outflow -34.8% 30D AI compute shortage supply chain across CPUs, high-speed connectivity, assembly and test, and semiconductor baskets. Optical Supply Chain Outflow -35.7% 30D Optical/photonics supply chain — AI optical supercycle plays. Laser sources (LITE, COHR), optical networking (CIEN), silicon photonics (ALAB, SMTC), foundry (TSEM), next-gen modulators (LWLG, SIVEF/Sivers Semiconductors… Memory Outflow -36.0% 30D Memory & Storage - HBM/DRAM (MU), HDDs/SSDs (STX, WDC), thematic ETF (DRAM Roundhill Memory ETF — added 2026-05-06 after launching ~April 2026; note refresh 2026-05-10: now +101.9% off $26.14 low to $52.80 ATH, +13.4%… Space Outflow -36.4% 30D Space plays — expanded 2026-05-27 for SpaceX IPO catalyst (debut 2026-06-12 NASDAQ:SPCX, $1.75T-$2T target, $40-80B raise, largest IPO ever). Originally only RKLB / ARKX / GSAT (3 names). Launch / rockets: RKLB… WFE Test Metrology Outflow -40.2% 30D Semiconductor wafer-fab equipment, process control, metrology, test, packaging, and materials suppliers. 6. Key Signals
Recorded signals · 50
7. Paper Trade Report Card
yolo $108,072 +8.1% 10 open · updated 2026-07-29
claude trader $105,621 +5.6% 26 open · updated 2026-07-24
bench signals $52,530 n/a 51 open · updated 2026-07-24
8. Active Perspectives
AI Power Bottleneck — Watts Per Rack + Generation-Side active high latest 2026-07-28
AI Power Delivery — The 30% Parasitic Loss active high latest 2026-07-28
Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario monitoring low latest 2026-07-28
Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle monitoring low latest 2026-07-28
The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven monitoring low latest 2026-07-28
AI Optical Supercycle — Wave-Curve Rotation monitoring high latest 2026-07-28
US Energy Dominance — Blockade as Leverage (absorbed iran-war-oil) monitoring critical latest 2026-07-28
Memory Supercycle — DRAM/NAND/HBM Structural Tightness active high latest 2026-07-28
SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 monitoring high latest 2026-07-28
Nearline HDD Storage — Density-Led Oligopoly (allocated through 2027) monitoring medium latest 2026-07-28
Livestock Disease — New World Screwworm → Cattle-Supply Shock & Protein Rotation monitoring medium latest 2026-07-28
Biotech Capital Cycle — AI-Bio Platforms & Lab-Tools/CRO Picks-and-Shovels (IPO-Window Levered) monitoring medium latest 2026-07-28
Nuclear Fuel Cycle — AI-Driven Nuclear Demand (enrichment chokepoint + utility cash-flow) active medium latest 2026-07-28
CPU Shortage Supply Chain — Datacenter CPU Allocation + ABF Substrate Bottleneck monitoring high latest 2026-07-28
China Structural Discount — Multiple-Capped, Not Earnings-Capped (VIE / CCP / Macro Triptych) monitoring medium latest 2026-07-28
AI Capex Digestion — the Crowded-Trade Unwind active high latest 2026-07-28
Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) active medium latest 2026-07-28
Quantum Computing — The Sovereign-Catalyst Trade (Basket-First, Lottery Underneath) monitoring medium latest 2026-07-28
AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell monitoring medium latest 2026-07-28
Trump Policy Ticker Catalysts — Source-Tier Event Study monitoring low latest 2026-07-28
The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch active medium latest 2026-07-28
Today's Actions · 42 META $585.61 · TSLA $298.32 · ORCL $117.74
exit · 3
entry · 39
RTX breaking out 2.8% off its 52-week high after a +10.4% week — a +23% three-month run, not a one-week pop
KO breaking out 2.0% off its 52-week high after a +8.4% week
AMGN breaking out 2.6% off its 52-week high after a +5.9% week
CRM coming into play — 30.0% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+15.6% this week)
ADBE coming into play — 29.0% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+20.6% this week)
T coming into play — 19.6% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+3.9% this week)
CCJ watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · tape broken trend-hold
NTLA $18.50 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $18.50 · tape broken trend-hold
PL watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · tape broken trend-hold
PANW watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime) trend-hold
ZM $92 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, regime); trigger at $92 trend-hold
CME $280 in its $280 buy zone
FCX $56–63 in its $56–63 buy zone
LULU $135 in its $135 buy zone
VZ $44–48 in its $44–48 buy zone
MSI $434.20 tape broken · vwap reclaim — new this week
AMT $179.26 vwap reclaim — new this week
AAPL no setup today — still in trend, +3.8% this week, 1.9% off its 52-week high
AMZN no setup today — moving sideways, -7.4% this week, 18.6% off its 52-week high
ARGX no setup today — still in trend, +3.6% this week, 7.5% off its 52-week high
ARM no setup today — drifting down, -20.6% this week, 50.3% off its 52-week high trend-hold
ARQQ no setup today — under pressure, -14.3% this week, 75.0% off its 52-week high
GOOGL no setup today — drifting down, -1.6% this week, 17.6% off its 52-week high
HQ no setup today — moving sideways, -21.1% this week, 74.3% off its 52-week high
ILMN no setup today — still in trend, +2.1% this week, 2.2% off its 52-week high
INFQ no setup today — moving sideways, -13.8% this week, 58.5% off its 52-week high
IONQ no setup today — moving sideways, -7.8% this week, 62.2% off its 52-week high
LAES no setup today — under pressure, -13.5% this week, 74.2% off its 52-week high
MSFT no setup today — under pressure, +0.1% this week, 29.7% off its 52-week high trend-hold
MU no setup today — drifting down, -23.0% this week, 41.1% off its 52-week high trend-hold
NET no setup today — still in trend, +0.5% this week, 7.1% off its 52-week high
NTR no setup today — still in trend, +3.0% this week, 17.3% off its 52-week high
NVDA no setup today — moving sideways, -10.4% this week, 19.7% off its 52-week high trend-hold
OUST no setup today — drifting down, -19.4% this week, 50.9% off its 52-week high
QBTS no setup today — under pressure, -6.6% this week, 65.3% off its 52-week high
QUBT no setup today — under pressure, -7.7% this week, 71.8% off its 52-week high
RGTI no setup today — under pressure, -13.2% this week, 77.3% off its 52-week high
SNDK no setup today — drifting down, -36.5% this week, 56.9% off its 52-week high trend-hold
XNDU no setup today — moving sideways, -11.8% this week, 77.0% off its 52-week high
The desk's frozen record The machine-built sections as this issue recorded them — the tape, calls, and wires that were true on this date (desk plumbing and file-path lines removed for reading).
Regime State
- State counts: collapse: 167, pullback: 353, uptrend: 146, downtrend: 128.
- Latest transition batch: 2026-07-29 vs 2026-07-28; 0 confirmed state-to-state flips, 1 entries, 0 exits.
- Confirmed flips: none in the latest transition batch.
Cross-sector Rotation
- Money rotating INTO China Tech (RS +16.3, 0% strong-up), Trace Iran War Second And Third Orde (RS +14.5, 86% strong-up), Cloud SAAS (RS +13.2, 38% strong-up) — OUT OF WFE Test Metrology (RS -37.9), Space (RS -34.1), Memory (RS -33.7). Benchmark SPY -2.3% 30d. ⚡ EMERGING (turning up before the trailing board): Airlines (accel +5.2, 50% up), Peptide Economy (accel +4.0, 60% up). Fading leaders: Canadian OG (accel -4.1), Crypto (accel -5.0).
- ⚡ Front-run (emerging, turning up before the trailing board): Airlines (accel +5.2, 50% up); Peptide Economy (accel +4.0, 60% up).
- Leadership shifts since last run: Trace Iran War Second And Third Orde (new-leader); Cloud SAAS (new-leader); Government Compute (lost-leadership); Alt Managers (lost-leadership); Space (new-laggard); Optical Supply Chain (left-laggards).
Volatility Gate
- VIX 20.66 (ELEVATED) · 1d +13.5%. ↗️ VIX ELEVATED — 20.66 (20-30). Stress building, below the fear line.
- No fire-sale trigger (rule: >=30% one-day spike is the trigger; the level alone is context).
- Credit tape (7d): HYG -0.3% · LQD -0.4% · IEF +0.1% — the flush-vs-break discriminator: orderly credit means the selling is positioning, not a credit event.
The Prints
- $005930.KS — Samsung Electronics Q2 2026, announced 2026-07-30 KST (the calendar stub carried the approximate 07-28 date): revenue ₩171.5T, +130% YoY (+28% QoQ); operating profit ₩89.49T (~$62B), +1,814% YoY — an 18-fold surge, margins above…
- $MSFT — Q4 FY2026, reported after the close 2026-07-29 — a beat across every line: revenue $90.01B, +18% YoY (vs ~$87.6B expected); adjusted EPS $4.74 (vs $4.24 est; GAAP $4.81, +32%); GAAP net income $35.8B, +31%. Azure +43%,…
- $META — Q2 2026, reported after the close 2026-07-29 — revenue beat, profit miss: revenue $60.80B, +27% YoY (vs $60.22B expected); EPS $6.18 vs $7.22 expected — a ~14% miss, down ~13% YoY, with AI infrastructure spend pressuring…
- $QCOM — Reported 2026-07-29; the market reaction keyed off strategy, not the print: shares jumped ~14% after hours on the announced acquisition of AI software startup Modular, a preview of two upcoming AI chips, and a significantly raised…
- $ARM — Q4 + fiscal year 2026, reported 2026-07-29: record revenue $1.49B, +20% YoY, driven by data-center royalties doubling and the launch of Arm's first own chip. EPS/guidance detail not yet verified in our pulls — gap note: fill…
- ⚠ 63 print(s) in this window are still unread stubs — results landed but nobody has written them up yet.
Upcoming Prints (next 72h)
- 2026-07-30 — $AAPL, $AMZN, $KLAC, $MA, $MPWR, $MSTR, $ABBV, $COIN +75 more
- 2026-07-31 — $XOM, $ETN, $CVX, $ABBV, $LIN, $CL, $NVT, $ARES +15 more
- 2026-08-01 — $BRK-B
Tripwires
- Tripwires: no new trips since the 2026-07-29 duty pass.
Desk Calls
| Ticker | Stance | Entry | Review-by | 30d vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $CEG | watch | reclaim the 20-day (~$256) with hyperscaler spending language intact on the Jul… | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $ELAN | watch | a volume-confirmed (at least average volume) close through the 52-week high… | 2026-08-14 | pending |
| $GEV | watch | held the AI unwind at −5%; reclaim the 20-day (~$1,085) and print a higher low | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $LEU | watch | first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta… | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $CLMT | pass | RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold;… | 2026-09-04 | pending |
| $DK | pass | reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a… | 2026-09-04 | pending |
| $MPC | watch | the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the… | 2026-08-21 | pending |
| $MU | watch (invalidation?) | Friday printed a reversal bar (low $804, closed $848.95); a close above that bar's… | 2026-08-14 | pending |
| $NVDA | watch (in zone) | the general never broke (−3.7% in 30 days vs the ETF's −15.7%); a reclaim of its… | 2026-08-14 | pending |
| $PANW | watch | the lane's strongest structure (-2.7% from its 52-week high, +83% on the year);… | 2026-09-04 | pending |
| $PL | watch (invalidation?) | untouchable while the knife falls (RSI 30, −14% on the week); interest begins when… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $PSX | watch | the diversified laggard of the three (+70% on the year, midstream/chem mix dilutes… | 2026-08-21 | pending |
| $S | watch | the laggard catching up (+30% in 30 days, still only +9% on the year and -8.6% from… | 2026-09-10 | pending |
| $SMH | watch (invalidation?) | the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low,… | 2026-08-14 | pending |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | the complex's only accumulation-shaped bar: +5.7% on 1.35× volume, closed near the… | 2026-08-14 | pending |
| $VLO | watch | best 12-month tape of the pure refiners (+117%); same frame — first 20-day hold… | 2026-08-21 | pending |
| $ARM | watch (in zone) | reclaim the pre-registered $270 line and hold it — the trigger the thesis flag broke… | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $CCJ | watch | washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $CEG | watch (in zone) | the merchant bellwether needs a turn signature, not a dip-buy — a base under the… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $DUK | watch | the one working expression — regulated rate-base growth from the same demand; a… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $LEU | watch | only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $MU | watch | gated on the prints, not the chart — a storage/memory print (STX Jul 28, WDC Jul 29,… | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $NVDA | watch | the R1 playbook leg — hold the 20-day retest (~$202) through the July 28–29 storage… | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $TLN | watch (invalidation?) | the strongest tape of the merchants — hold the $360 shelf and the 200-day (~$371),… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $VST | watch (in zone) | reclaim the 200-day (~$166) and hold it — first sign the derate is done | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $ABCL | watch (invalidation?) | the pop already happened (Feb low $2.78 to a $8.44 high) — this is the first flag;… | 2026-08-31 | pending |
| $CBRS | watch | a close above the post-flush bounce high ($221.30) confirms the higher low and… | 2026-08-31 | pending |
| $META | watch (in zone) | second reclaim attempt off a higher low — buy interest is a close above ~$665,… | 2026-08-31 | pending |
| $MSFT | watch | no turn signature yet — interest begins at the 200-day reclaim (~$442) after a base;… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $NTLA | watch (invalidation?) | golden cross, +31% month, and a fresh impulse into $18.48 on July 2 — buy interest… | 2026-08-31 | pending |
| $ORCL | pass | reopen when the knife stops: the February low ($136) holds on this retest AND a +7%… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $AXTI | pass | reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $CIFR | pass | reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $CORZ | pass | reopen on a recapitalization that restores positive equity with the CoreWeave… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $CRDO | buy (in zone) | elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $CRWV | pass | reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $EQT | watch | the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $HUT | pass | reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $KGS | buy (invalidation?) | the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power… | 2026-08-15 | pending |
| $MXL | watch (in zone) | wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no… | 2026-08-15 | pending |
| $NBIS | buy (in zone) | pullback within an intact uptrend — buy the 50-day reclaim at ~$217, which says the… | 2026-08-31 | pending |
| $OKTA | pass | the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $TER | buy | the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS… | 2026-08-15 | pending |
| $WDAY | watch | the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $WULF | watch (invalidation?) | the $2.63B war chest has to start converting into hosting revenue on the P&L — watch… | 2026-08-15 | pending |
| $SKHY | watch (invalidation?) | first clean post-debut base — not the open (debut ~2026-07-10) | 2026-08-01 | n/a |
| $ZM | watch (in zone) | 2 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue; base over $92 | 2026-09-01 | pending |
| $MU | buy | own the up-cycle with cycle sizing — record DRAM/HBM pricing power, HBM booked… | 2026-09-01 | pending |
| $SNDK | watch | only on evidence the +69% NAND operating margin is a baseline, not the peak — two… | 2026-09-01 | pending |
| $STX | buy | own the cleanest un-hyped inflection — nearline-HDD margins compounding 23%→32% over… | 2026-09-01 | pending |
| $WDC | buy | same nearline thesis as STX — margins 10%→36% on the same AI storage driver, no hype… | 2026-09-01 | pending |
A desk call is an authored stance from a published report; entry and invalidation conditions are human-read, and the full ledger lives at /calls.
30d vs SPY is the raw name-vs-SPY move since the call — for trim/sell calls a NEGATIVE number means the call worked (the name fell after it).
From the Feeds
Curated picks from the last 7 days of the X / Reddit / Discord / web sweep — items the desk read and kept, not the raw capture firehose. Source: -pick- (type: curated-find).
redditu/nbaphilly17 — r/stocks — CXMT's IPO pop doesn't touch SK Hynix's actual HBM thesis $HY9H.F · link- A grounded rebuttal to the CXMT-panic framing that's been hitting SK Hynix and the broader memory trade this week: argues CXMT's outsized IPO pop reflects share gains in commodity DRAM, not the HBM3E/HBM4, advanced-packaging, and hyperscaler-qualification businesses that actually anchor the SK Hynix bull case, and tha…
webReuters / Benzinga / TipRanks (via SEC… — AXT — Tongmei withdraws Shanghai STAR IPO bid, pivots to Hong Kong listing for InP business $AXTI · link- AXT's China-based substrate subsidiary Tongmei is withdrawing its Shanghai STAR Market IPO application and instead pursuing a Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing focused specifically on the indium phosphide business, per Reuters citing an SEC filing (also reported by Benzinga and TipRanks, all dated 2026-07-29). AXT shar…
𝕏Gaetano (@crux_capital_) — crux_capital_ — the photonics buildout isn't over, even at the height of fear $LITE $GLW $COHR $AAOI $SIVEF · link- A tracked photonics-supply-chain analyst who has followed this complex through the pre-hype, peak-hype, and now sentiment-washout phases argues the underlying physical buildout across Lumentum, Corning, Coherent, Applied Optoelectronics, and Sivers Semiconductors (tagged $SIVE, tracked as SIVEF) hasn't stopped even as…
𝕏Zephyr (@zephyr_z9) — zephyr_z9 — China's chip-export jump traces to Korean-owned fabs, not indigenous mature-node output $HY9H.F · link- Pushes back on the read that a jump in Chinese chip exports reflects domestic mature-node chipmaking closing the gap: attributes the increase specifically to SK Hynix's own Dalian NAND and Wuxi DRAM fabs and Samsung's Xi'an NAND fab — Korean-owned capacity operating inside China, not a Chinese-chip substitution story.…
redditu/app1310 — Short sellers notch $15.5B profit as SpaceX slides below its IPO price $SPCX $TSLA · link- Named-source number (Ortex: $15.5B in short paper profit) on the post-IPO SpaceX slide from $225.64 high to a fresh $115.26 low, below the $135 IPO price — the clearest quantified read yet on how hard the market is fading the mega-IPO liquidity story, and it ties the SpaceX unwind explicitly to the same AI-capex-cashf…
redditu/rdh2dmd — Samsung, SK Group seal $950B in AI deals with Nvidia and Broadcom $NVDA $AVGO $005930.KS $000660.KS · link- Consolidated read on the largest single memory/AI-infra commitment of the cycle: $750B in SK Group deals (Nvidia $500B+ headline, an SK Hynix HBM4 long-term supply pact, a 2GW 2027 Vera Rubin datacenter) plus a $200B Samsung-Broadcom MOU on sub-2nm foundry and packaging — real counterparties committing real capital ex…
redditu/aperartnft — Alphabet's 82% cloud growth got sold anyway; capex guidance is why $GOOGL $TSLA · link- Cleanest numeric lay-down of the post-earnings paradox: Google Cloud growth accelerated to 82% ($24.8B rev, margin 20.7%->35.6%, backlog +$50B q/q to $514B) and the stock still fell 6-7% purely on the capex guide raised to $205B — the market pricing capex, not growth, extends the desk's Jul 22 Alphabet capex read with…
𝕏Paradis Labs (@ParadisLabs) — ParadisLabs — LPKF Laser H1: ugly headline numbers, more nuanced underneath $LPK.DE $LPKFF · link- H1 headline numbers are rough (revenue -38.3%, EBIT and FCF both negative, cash halved), but the thread frames it as more nuanced than the print alone suggests — worth tracking since LPKF sits in the optical-supply-chain watchlist as a laser-tooling name for advanced packaging.
redditu/aperartnft — NVDA's 9.3% Nebius stake: guaranteed customer or circular financing $NVDA $NBIS · linkwebCNBC — Alphabet Q2: $44.9B quarterly capex, $180-190B FY guide, 2027 'significantly increases' $GOOGL $NVDA $CEG $GEV · link- First hyperscaler capex print of the cycle landed a week before the Jul 29-30 reads several desk calls are gated on — and it validates the supplier side hard: $44.9B in one quarter, 60% to servers, CFO guiding 2027 'significantly' higher. The stock sank on the call: capex scares the spender, pays the suppliers — the K…
webADATA chairman via wccftech (surfaced b… — ADATA chairman: DRAM shortage lasts another 10 years, 'AI bubble talk can wait until 2040' $MU $SNDK · link- A named memory-industry principal putting a decade horizon on the shortage the memory-supercycle thesis rides — vendor talking his book, but the strongest public duration claim yet, and it surfaced hot (502 points on the r/wallstreetbets link post) the same week Kioxia-led memory names ripped.
Filings
- NEW: $MSFT 10-K filed 2026-07-29 (period 2026-06-30)
- NEW: $MSFT 8-K filed 2026-07-29 (period 2026-07-29)
- NEW: $ARM 6-K filed 2026-07-29 (period 2026-06-30)
- NEW: $ARM 6-K filed 2026-07-29 (period 2026-07-29)
- NEW: $BE 10-Q/A filed 2026-07-29 (period 2026-06-30)
- NEW: $BNTX 6-K filed 2026-07-29 (period 2026-07-29)
- NEW: $FUBO 8-K filed 2026-07-29 (period 2026-07-28)
- NEW: $SOFI 8-K filed 2026-07-29 (period 2026-07-29)
- NEW: $VICR 10-Q filed 2026-07-29 (period 2026-06-30)
- NEW: $VRT 10-Q filed 2026-07-29 (period 2026-06-30)
- NEW: $VRT 8-K filed 2026-07-29 (period 2026-07-29)
- Last 14 days: $MSFT 10-K (2026-07-29); $MSFT 8-K (2026-07-29); $ARM 6-K (2026-07-29); $ARM 6-K (2026-07-29); $BE 10-Q/A (2026-07-29); $BNTX 6-K (2026-07-29); $FUBO 8-K (2026-07-29); $SKHY 6-K (2026-07-29); ….
Breadth And Movers
Price truth: *; primary summary date 2026-07-29. Row dates: 2026-07-30: 13, 2026-07-29: 1745, 2026-07-28: 42, 2026-07-24: 17, 2026-07-17: 1, 2026-07-16: 1, 2026-06-29: 1.
- Summary coverage: 1745/1820 rows at 2026-07-29; 987 unique symbols after de-duplication.
- Unique-symbol breadth: 262 up, 716 down, 9 flat; median 1D change -1.7%.
- Market-pulse breadth: 9 up, 32 down, 0 flat; median 1D change -1.1% from market-pulse.
Top gainers by 1D change (filtered to price >= $1, dollar volume >= $50M, finite RSI):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $LAD | +19.3% | +25.8% | +47.2% | 84.8 | Extreme overbought | $427.48 | monster-discoveries |
| $SOXS | +16.4% | +64.3% | +125.8% | 37.0 | strong-down | $73.15 | etf-ideas |
| $AVTR | +15.8% | +31.3% | +45.3% | 83.3 | Extreme overbought | $14.38 | biotech-capital-cycle |
| $CAKE | +13.6% | +18.0% | +27.2% | 83.3 | Extreme overbought | $101.14 | monster-discoveries |
| $NP | +10.1% | +17.0% | +11.5% | 68.3 | Overbought | $35.11 | monster-discoveries |
Top laggards by 1D change (same filter):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $LMND | -23.7% | -25.3% | -27.2% | 28.7 | Oversold | $47.38 | holdings-stocks |
| $AAUC | -18.3% | -21.5% | -28.4% | 20.9 | Extreme oversold | $17.03 | monster-discoveries |
| $VRT | -17.3% | -25.9% | -33.4% | 26.9 | Oversold | $223.04 | spacex-s1-supply-chain |
| $ACHC | -16.3% | -21.4% | -7.4% | 38.0 | weak-down | $27.35 | monster-discoveries |
| $SOXL | -16.0% | -42.9% | -65.5% | 33.5 | Oversold | $91.99 | etf-ideas |
Targets In Zone
| Target | Anchor date | Tickers | Mechanical status | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA — Entry-Zone Target (2026-07-11 full-scan promotion, AI) | 2026-07-11 | $NVDA | ✅ HIT — NVDA $206.84, RSI 51.0, weak-down, golden cross, +1.7% vs SMA20… | $198–204 (SMA20 $201.95 retest) — buy the flag, not the pop |
| WMT — Entry-Zone Target (2026-07-07 full-scan promotion) | 2026-07-07 | $WMT | 🟢 IN ZONE (deeper retest) — WMT $109.47, trend down, RSI 38.1, -2.5% vs… | $108–111 (base first) → confirm on SMA200 reclaim $116.71 |
| GOOGL — Entry-Zone Target (2026-06-26 EOW anchor) | 2026-06-26 | $GOOGL | ✅ HIT — GOOGL $319.74, RSI 32.8, down trend, golden cross, -9.2% vs SMA20,… | SMA20 reclaim ~$360 is THE rotation bellwether → confirms quality-dip resumes;… |
| ADBE entry-zone — $195-$210 | 2026-06-16 | $ADBE | ✅ HIT — ADBE $225.11, RSI 51.5 (recovered from 31.7), strong-down trend but… | $195-$210 |
| CRWD entry-zone — $163.75-$172.50 (split-adjusted) | 2026-06-16 | $CRWD | ✅ HIT — CRWD $183.28 (split-adjusted), RSI 47.3, strong-up, golden cross,… | $163.75-$172.50 (split-adjusted 4:1 2026-07-02; set pre-split as $655-$690) |
| WMT entry-zone - <$125 | 2026-05-23 | $WMT | 🟢 IN ZONE — WMT $121.03 < $125 threshold. RSI 47.4, weak-down. -9.23% 30D.… | <$125 |
| ABT entry-zone - <$92 | 2026-04-26 | $ABT | 🟢 IN ZONE — ABT $90.62 < $92 threshold. RSI 54.3 (neutral), but strong-down… | <$92 |
| CME entry-zone — <$280 | 2026-04-26 | $CME | 🟢 IN ZONE — CME $261.60 < $280 threshold. RSI 41.9, down. -13.82% 30D. -2.6%… | <$280 |
Convergence Leaders
- Stocks in projection: 521;
convergentCount3;divergentCount11.