Leaders and laggards
743 advancing 269 declining 66.3% above the 200-day Color is 7-day price direction, not a buy or sell call.
Leaders
top 7D gainersLaggards
top 7D losers1. The Read
What happened last week
Last week was the week one leveraged book died in public, and the tape spent five sessions processing the corpse. Situational Awareness LP's forced liquidation — roughly $45B at 4x gross, unwound into a Thursday block sale to Citadel — took a third off the KOSPI and halved the memory complex before snapping back in the most violent reversal prints of the year: Korea's index rose a record +17.91% Friday, SanDisk swung from −50% peak-to-trough to +26% in a single session, and the software names the fund was short (Adobe, Salesforce, Workday) put up double-digit weeks as the shorts were bought back. The desk's read, published Friday, stands: a single-book liquidation, not a fundamental re-rate — and the VIX never confirming (it ended July lower) was the tell that the damage was one portfolio's, not the market's. Meanwhile the megacaps quietly had one of their best earnings weeks in memory: Microsoft's beat drove a +25.33% week (now RSI 78.3, +21.3% above its 20-day — extended by any measure), Amazon's +15% earnings pop carried it to within 1.1% of its 52-week high, and Alphabet followed +14.38% on the week. Strength at the top, wreckage underneath, and a record snap-back in between.
Today: the turn tried to broaden
Monday was the first session that looked like a market turn rather than a squeeze echo. SPY closed $757.67, +1.42%, RSI 59.7 with the trailing month back positive — crossing the index-momentum condition the desk's midterm-window watch seeded a week ago, its first trigger to fire. The breadth gauge flipped to broad strength the same hour, and the leadership was pure risk appetite: quantum computing +7.2% median with all thirteen names green (QBTS +10.51%, RGTI +7.16%, IONQ +6.61%), space +5.7%, alternative managers +5.2%, CoreWeave +19.49% leading the AI-infra rebound. The whiplash cohort itself kept building: SanDisk +6.03%, holding well above last week's low. The lagging side was defensive and agricultural — food security −1.5% median, Nutrien −4.5% — plus one honest counter-tell: the gold/silver ratio ticked defensive on a day nothing else did. One session proves nothing, but the shape was the one the turn-watchers wanted: breadth up, spec bid, safe havens ignored.
Tonight: Palantir answered the only question that mattered
After the close, the print this desk spent ten weeks calling "the only resolution" resolved — emphatically toward the re-rate. Q2 revenue $1.935B, +93% against a consensus of ~$1.81B; U.S. commercial revenue +149% against a bar of roughly +98%; U.S. government accelerating to +90%; GAAP net income $1.06B — a 55% margin — and guidance raised on every line: full-year revenue to +82%, U.S. commercial to +134%, adjusted free cash flow to $4.5–4.7B. Shares were reported up ~12% after hours, inside the 9–15% band the options market priced. The deceleration thesis that drove the name from $208 to a death-crossed $126 now has to explain a company that accelerated while its multiple was cut in half. An after-hours indication is not a settled price — confirmation is still settled closes above the 20- and 50-day and a higher low — but the argument is over, and the argument was the position.
This week: the heaviest print calendar of the quarter
Roughly 390 companies report in the next 72 hours. Tuesday: AMD — the marquee — with Caterpillar, McDonald's, Pfizer, Amgen, Arista, Super Micro. Wednesday is the memory thesis's own verdict day: SanDisk and Western Digital report with the forced seller gone — the cleanest pricing-power read of the cycle — alongside Disney, Lilly, Novo, Uber, Shopify, and the desk's livestock pick Elanco. Thursday: Cloudflare (after tonight's Palantir read-through, the software-growth print to watch), Datadog, Brookfield, Constellation, and the AI-infra cohort's Nebius. The week answers, in order: did the AI trade's demand hold (AMD), did memory pricing power survive the unwind (SNDK/WDC), and does growth software re-rate off Palantir's print (NET/DDOG).
Watch Tuesday: AMD after the close, and whether PLTR's after-hours move survives to a settled close above $130.49 — the 50-day, the first gate of its own confirmation sequence.
2. What Changed Since the Last Brief
Screen CROSSINGS between the previous brief's close ( ) and this one — a name appears only on the session it crossed, not for as long as it stays there. Every name carries its before → after.
New overbought (13) — LIND RSI 66.7 → 77.8, FXY RSI 69.7 → 77.2, SNOW RSI 69.8 → 74.7, OWL RSI 64.8 → 73.4, DXCM RSI 68.6 → 72.8, GRND RSI 69.8 → 72.8, ATKR RSI 47.3 → 72.6, AMP RSI 69.9 → 72.5, GSAT RSI 69.4 → 72.1, AMZN RSI 67.7 → 72, ICUI RSI 67.5 → 71.1, DRH RSI 68.8 → 71, ELVN RSI 63.4 → 70.2.
Golden crossings (3) — AVTR -0.59% → 0.59%, BND 0% → 0%, SEER -0.52% → 0%.
Death crossings (1) — ECHO 0.47% → -0.63%.
New monsters (25) — AEHR 50.6% → 71.7%, IRDM 57.3% → 59.8%, HUT 53.7% → 59.3%, OUST 36.3% → 48.2%, UMAC 35.5% → 47.5%, HUM 37.9% → 41.6%, CTOS 31.4% → 37.2%, CNC 33.5% → 36.4%, IMAX 27.8% → 35.9%, ATKR 6.1% → 35.7%, AVTR 34.7% → 33.6%, AXGN 23.9% → 33.6%, GRMN 28.9% → 33.6%, ALNT 29.7% → 33.3%, NESR 29.6% → 33%, BEN 27.4% → 32.2%, +9 more.
Newly near a 52-week high (30) — ATKR -19.08% → -0.05% from high, BLMN -6.68% → -2.59% from high, AXGN -10.1% → -2.6% from high, CNXN -5.2% → -2.95% from high, SPXL -7.02% → -3.04% from high, NSIT -5.12% → -3.11% from high, NEO -5.44% → -3.12% from high, UPRO -7.15% → -3.15% from high, TKR -6.03% → -3.16% from high, S -7.97% → -3.19% from high, TDY -5.45% → -3.29% from high, GE -5.86% → -3.55% from high, PPA -6.27% → -3.74% from high, NET -5.04% → -3.76% from high, VUG -5.86% → -3.78% from high, JETS -7.95% → -3.86% from high, +14 more.
Newly in an entry zone (1) — WMTE $110.71 · $108–111 (base first) → confirm on SMA200 reclaim $116.71.
3. Focus List
MU/SNDK aside, the quantum cluster — IONQ +6.61%, RGTI +7.16%, QBTS +10.51%, QUBT +7.9%, INFQ +11.7%, XNDU +5.11%, HQ +14.16%, ARQQ +7.71%, LAES +6.36% — the day's loudest board, every name green, every name still deeply broken on the month (−4% to −43%). A short-covering-shaped surge in a wrecked cohort: real money made today, no trend repaired yet. ARGX / ILMN — ARGX −2.7%, RSI 40.7, drifting; ILMN −3.38% today but RSI 59.3 in an uptrend — a pullback inside strength, not a break.
The desk's takes cover 13 of 24 names; the rest show the mechanical tape state. 2 authored takes matched no row (MU/SNDK ASIDE, THE QUANTUM CLUSTER, ARGX / ILMN) — kept in the chapter text above.
4. Sector Scorecard
Technology (broad) — +1.08% sector median, 148 up / 68 down. Healthy, not euphoric.
The desk's assessments cover 6 of 68 lanes. 1 authored assessment matched no lane (technology (broad)) — kept in the chapter text above.
5. The Wild & Whacky
A 2x inverse SK Hynix ETF lost ~60% in one day when the squeeze snapped back — the retail echo of the unwind, and the week's best argument against leveraged single-name products (first flagged in @fintergirl's Korean-retail thread). Horizon Quantum rose +14.16% today; it's still down 43% on the month. The quantum board in one line. CoreWeave gained +19.49% in a session — for a stock that IPO'd as the picks-and-shovels of AI compute, it trades like the shovel is attached to a pogo stick. Palantir's GAAP net margin printed 55% — a software company earning like a payments monopoly, one quarter after the market priced it for deceleration.
6. Three Things
- Palantir ended the argument. Ten weeks of "only the print resolves it" resolved in one release: +93% revenue, +149% U.S. commercial, guidance raised on every line, ~+12% after hours. The deceleration case that cut the stock in half now has to explain an acceleration.
- The turn tried to broaden. SPY's month went positive with RSI near 60, breadth flipped to broad strength, and the beaten-down spec boards ran green across every name — the first session since the July unwind that looked like a market turn instead of a squeeze echo. One session, one trigger; the confirming dominoes (small caps leading, fear disarming) haven't fallen yet.
- The next 72 hours decide if any of it sticks. ~390 prints by Thursday: AMD Tuesday tests AI demand, SanDisk/Western Digital Wednesday test memory pricing power with the forced seller gone, Cloudflare/Datadog Thursday test whether growth software re-rates off Palantir's number.
7. Big Picture
The July story was one leveraged book dying — a $45B fund at 4x gross forced out of concentrated AI longs and software shorts, taking a third off the KOSPI and halving the memory complex on its way to a Thursday block sale. The August story, one session old, is what grows back in the crater. Monday's answer was tentative but legible: the index turned first (SPY's month back positive), the most-wrecked cohorts bounced hardest (quantum +7.2%, space +5.7% — squeeze-shaped, not trend-shaped), the megacap earnings winners held their gains, and safe havens found no bid. Tonight's Palantir print then supplied the thing bounces usually lack: a fundamental fact. If the prints this week keep confirming — AMD, the memory pair, the software cohort — the July damage reads as the liquidation the desk called it, and the re-rate question moves name by name. If they don't, Monday was short-covering with good lighting. The desk's posture is unchanged either way: entries are conditions (bases, reclaims, higher lows), not celebrations.
8. Front Page
Three acts in one Monday. Act one: the first session since the July unwind that looked like a market turn instead of a squeeze echo — SPY +1.42% to $757.67 with the month back positive, breadth flipping to broad strength, and the beaten-down spec boards (quantum, space) running green across every name. Act two, after the close: Palantir printed the quarter this desk spent ten weeks calling the only resolution — revenue +93%, U.S. commercial +149%, guidance raised everywhere, shares ~+12% after hours. Act three starts tomorrow: roughly 390 companies report by Thursday, headlined by AMD Tuesday and the memory thesis's verdict prints — SanDisk and Western Digital — Wednesday. The week decides whether tonight's answer generalizes.
Monster Watch · 184 of 1060 tracked names
Sector Rotation Radar · 68 themes
Flow means 30-day relative strength versus SPY, not dollars moving: Inflow beat SPY by more than 2 points, Outflow trailed by more than 2, and Neutral stayed inside that band.
reference_jasonl_capital_kopn_check.md). Kopin Corporation, $3.97 microcap. Claimed: MicroLED… Nuclear Fuel Cycle Outflow -7.0% 30D Nuclear fuel cycle — AI-DRIVEN nuclear-demand thesis (sibling to ai-power-bottleneck, NOT a rotation away from AI; the mechanism is COMPLEMENTARY — hyperscaler data-center power demand pulls through the entire nuclear… Drone Defense Outflow -7.3% 30D Drone & counter-drone defense — offense (AVAV AeroVironment, AVEX AEVEX Corp — newly-public April 2026 full-stack drone + AI ISR, KTOS Kratos, RCAT Red Cat — small-cap manufacturer), counter-drone (EOPSF Electro Optic… Robotics Outflow -7.9% 30D Robotics & physical-AI across the stack — seeded 2026-06-27 from @mkfilko + @MMatters22596 robotics baskets (live rotation theme). Layers: brain/compute (NVDA Isaac/GR00T, BB/QNX OS), vision (CGNX, AMBA), lidar/sensors… Nearline Storage Outflow -8.0% 30D High-capacity storage makers and upstream media and component suppliers serving hyperscale and AI data centers. Ark Outflow -8.1% 30D ARK Invest ETFs - tracking Cathie Wood's funds Energy Outflow -8.8% 30D Energy - data center power (BE, EOSE, TAC, CEG, GEV, TLN), nuclear (CEG), solar (FSLR, ENPH), utilities (NEE). Overlaps with ai-infra for power plays. AI Infra Outflow -9.3% 30D AI Infrastructure - hyperscalers (AMZN), GPUs (NVDA), lithography (ASML), power generation (TAC — TransAlta, Canadian IPP: hydro/wind/solar/battery/gas, NOT nuclear; label corrected 2026-06-19 from 'nuclear'), foundry… IBB Outflow -10.1% 30D Biotechnology cohort spanning large-cap therapeutics, rare disease, gene editing, diagnostics, life-science tools, and CROs. EV Clean Energy Outflow -10.8% 30D EV makers + clean energy + related ETFs. Solar tracking (NXT Nextracker), industrial energy storage/batteries (ENS EnerSys). Lithium pure-plays added 2026-05-10 from… Optical Supply Chain Outflow -11.0% 30D Optical/photonics supply chain — AI optical supercycle plays. Laser sources (LITE, COHR), optical networking (CIEN), silicon photonics (ALAB, SMTC), foundry (TSEM), next-gen modulators (LWLG, SIVEF/Sivers Semiconductors… Spacex S1 Supply Chain Outflow -11.1% 30D SpaceX S-1 picks-and-shovels + space peers screen (2026-06-04): AI-compute/power/optical supply chain, space industrial base, disrupted incumbents, holders. Tied to spacex-s1 investigations. Biotech Outflow -11.1% 30D Biotech - pharma innovation (LLY), lab tools (TMO), mRNA (MRNA), gene editing (CRSP, NTLA, VRTX), immunotherapy (IBRX) Humanoid Robotics Outflow -11.3% 30D Humanoid robotics components — sensors and motion control for the 2027-2028 humanoid wave. Component layer: VPG (Vishay Precision Group — strain gauges and force/torque sensors), MOG-A (Moog — precision motion… Grid Buildout Outflow -11.4% 30D Transformer, switchgear, electrical-equipment, and engineering contractors exposed to transmission and data-center grid buildout. Quantum Computing Outflow -11.4% 30D Quantum-compute pure-plays. Gate/trapped-ion (IONQ), superconducting (RGTI/Rigetti), annealing (QBTS/D-Wave), photonic (QUBT/Quantum Computing Inc, XNDU/Xanadu — de-SPAC 2026-03), cold-atom/Rydberg (INFQ/Infleqtion —… AI Power Outflow -11.8% 30D AI Power Bottleneck — Leopold Aschenbrenner's watts-per-rack thesis. Fuel cells (BE), distributed power (PSIX, BW), nat gas (EQT, LBRT, PUMP), BTC miners pivoting to AI compute (CORZ, IREN, APLD, CIFR, HUT, BTDR, CLSK,… Semis Outflow -12.4% 30D Semiconductors - GPUs (NVDA, AMD), foundry (TSM), networking chips (AVGO, MRVL), architecture (ARM), mobile (QCOM), equipment (ASML, AMAT), packaging (AMKR), analog/power (ON), programmable-logic (LSCC - added… WFE Test Metrology Outflow -13.1% 30D Semiconductor wafer-fab equipment, process control, metrology, test, packaging, and materials suppliers. Supply Chain Traces Outflow -13.8% 30D Supply chain trace discoveries — tickers found by our autonomous research agents across all traces. Tungsten (KMT Kennametal, CRS Carpenter; Almonty Layer-1 pure-play pending correct-ticker re-add — was wrongly tracked… CPU Shortage Supply Chain Outflow -17.8% 30D AI compute shortage supply chain across CPUs, high-speed connectivity, assembly and test, and semiconductor baskets. Memory Outflow -19.6% 30D Memory & Storage - HBM/DRAM (MU), HDDs/SSDs (STX, WDC), thematic ETF (DRAM Roundhill Memory ETF — added 2026-05-06 after launching ~April 2026; note refresh 2026-05-10: now +101.9% off $26.14 low to $52.80 ATH, +13.4%… Space Outflow -21.2% 30D Space plays — expanded 2026-05-27 for SpaceX IPO catalyst (debut 2026-06-12 NASDAQ:SPCX, $1.75T-$2T target, $40-80B raise, largest IPO ever). Originally only RKLB / ARKX / GSAT (3 names). Launch / rockets: RKLB… 9. Market Vibe
Risk-on with a defensive whisper. The day's leadership was the wrecked stuff — quantum +7.2% median (0 of 13 red), space +5.7%, alt managers +5.2% — which is what short-covering and bottom-fishing look like, not repaired trends. The megacap winners are extended (MSFT +21.3% above its 20-day, AMZN RSI 72), the losers stabilized (SNDK +6.03%, TSLA +3.49% inside a collapse tag), and the only things falling were defensive: food security −1.5% median, Nutrien −4.5%, with the gold/silver ratio ticking defensive as the lone counter-tell. Fear gauges quiet, safe havens ignored. The vibe: the market wants the turn to be real and is paying up for the proof.
10. Key Signals
- The midterm-window watch fired its first trigger — SPY RSI 59.7 with a positive trailing month crossed the index-turn condition on the settled close, the same hour the breadth gauge flipped
mixed → broad_strength. Escalates the weekly turn-read to daily attention; small-caps-lead and fear-disarms are the next dominoes, and neither fired today. (Signal of record: the August 3 breadth-turn note.) - MSFT sits at 4 of 5 bells — research, trigger, tape, and regime lit — the only alarm-grade call on the board, with the tape now extended enough that the bell-count argues patience, not chase.
- LEU crossed its entry trigger ($184.76 ≥ $177) and was converted into the paper conviction book on its standing power-squeeze call — the pipeline's convert-or-pass rule, exercised.
- CEG, LEU, NVDA each reached 3 bells on convergence — below the alarm bar, on the watch ledger.
- PLTR's calendar event is filled with the reported print (revenue $1.935B, +93%; EPS $0.41 GAAP) pending the 10-Q reconciliation.
Recorded signals · 61
11. Paper Report Card
The books had opinions today. yolo took its first partial profit of the cycle — sold half its Cloudflare position at $282.74 for +$767 realized (+19.2%) on the partial-profit rule, keeping the rest for the Thursday print. The conviction book added one unit of Centrus at $184.76 on its in-zone trigger (eight open positions, $56.7K cash). autotrade ran a clean cycle and honestly declined to act — its regime gate wanted fresh bullish confirmation that a one-day turn doesn't provide (verify pass: 5-for-5 logic parity, no fills, book flat). The Tier A personas looked and mostly passed: momentum found no reversal-confirmed structure in the day's squeeze boards, swing-kid found no breakout with volume (GOOGL's +4.88% came on only 1.27x), degen skipped a same-day AAOI scalp rather than hold a binary print inside its 48-hour window, and the short-seller declined to short an accelerating rally — four disciplined passes and one trim, which is what a look is supposed to produce on a day like this.
yolo $112,395 +12.4% 10 open · updated 2026-08-03
claude trader $108,374 +8.4% 25 open · updated 2026-08-03
bench signals $52,674 n/a 51 open · updated 2026-07-31
12. Active Perspectives
- midterm-window — first trigger fired (above); posture stays flat-with-triggers. One index cross is Branch-A consistent, not confirmed.
- memory-supercycle — the whole thesis walks into Wednesday's SanDisk/Western Digital prints with the forced seller gone. SNDK +6.03% today, MU +0.79%; the cohort question is pricing power, and the answer arrives at the prints.
- The whiplash aftermath (one-seller anatomy, published Friday) — the base-or-fade test continues: SNDK, NBIS, and the Korea complex all held or built today. Thursday's block buyer (Citadel) redistribution flow remains the standing cap on rallies in those names.
- ai-power-bottleneck — LEU's conversion is this lane acting; CEG (3 bells) reports Thursday.
- Energy/refiners vertical — the calls keep working (PSX +16.3% on the month, VLO +14.2%); PSX reports Wednesday.
AI Power Bottleneck — Watts Per Rack + Generation-Side active high latest 2026-07-31
AI Power Delivery — The 30% Parasitic Loss active high latest 2026-07-31
Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario monitoring low latest 2026-07-31
Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle monitoring low latest 2026-07-31
The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven monitoring low latest 2026-07-31
AI Optical Supercycle — Wave-Curve Rotation monitoring high latest 2026-07-31
US Energy Dominance — Blockade as Leverage (absorbed iran-war-oil) monitoring critical latest 2026-07-31
Memory Supercycle — DRAM/NAND/HBM Structural Tightness active high latest 2026-07-31
SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 monitoring high latest 2026-07-31
Nearline HDD Storage — Density-Led Oligopoly (allocated through 2027) monitoring medium latest 2026-07-31
Livestock Disease — New World Screwworm → Cattle-Supply Shock & Protein Rotation monitoring medium latest 2026-07-31
Biotech Capital Cycle — AI-Bio Platforms & Lab-Tools/CRO Picks-and-Shovels (IPO-Window Levered) monitoring medium latest 2026-07-31
Nuclear Fuel Cycle — AI-Driven Nuclear Demand (enrichment chokepoint + utility cash-flow) active medium latest 2026-07-31
CPU Shortage Supply Chain — Datacenter CPU Allocation + ABF Substrate Bottleneck monitoring high latest 2026-07-31
China Structural Discount — Multiple-Capped, Not Earnings-Capped (VIE / CCP / Macro Triptych) monitoring medium latest 2026-07-31
AI Capex Digestion — the Crowded-Trade Unwind active high latest 2026-07-31
Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) active medium latest 2026-07-31
Quantum Computing — The Sovereign-Catalyst Trade (Basket-First, Lottery Underneath) monitoring medium latest 2026-07-31
AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell monitoring medium latest 2026-07-31
Trump Policy Ticker Catalysts — Source-Tier Event Study monitoring low latest 2026-07-31
The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch active medium latest 2026-07-31
13. Scan Dashboard
Not applicable — Monday flagship built on the 2026-07-31 EOW full-scan corpus; today's pass was the daily. The scan dashboard of record is in the July 31 brief.
14. Scan Summary
Not applicable — no scan ran today; the daily pipeline refreshed the full universe (1,056 symbols, settled 2026-08-03 close) and the EOW scan corpus (July 31) remains the standing scan of record.
15. What I'd Tell a Friend
The unwind is over; the argument now is about follow-through. Nothing that ripped today is an entry — the quantum and space boards are squeeze bounces inside broken trends, and the megacap winners (MSFT +21% above its 20-day) are extended enough that chasing buys someone else's earnings pop. The entries this week are conditions, not prices: SanDisk if Wednesday's print confirms pricing power and the name holds its higher low; Cloudflare and the growth-software cohort if Thursday's prints validate what Palantir just showed; the broad turn if small caps start leading and the fear gauges disarm (they haven't yet — one index trigger fired, the rest are quiet). And one discipline note from tonight: an after-hours pop is an indication, not a close. Every confirmation this desk tracks is written against settled prices, and the settled tape gets its say tomorrow at 9:30. The one thing to watch: AMD after Tuesday's close — it decides whether the AI-demand story that Palantir just re-lit spreads to the silicon.
Today's Actions · 39 HOOD $90.34 · RDDT $154.71 · COIN $146.50
exit · 3
HOOD $90.34 breaking down — -5.5% this week, 41.3% off its 52-week high despite a +4.4% bounce today
RDDT $154.71 breaking down — -13.7% this week, 45.3% off its 52-week high despite a +10.0% bounce today
COIN $146.50 breaking down — -12.5% this week, 63.6% off its 52-week high despite a +0.2% bounce today
entry · 36
AMZN breaking out 1.1% off its 52-week high after a +22.8% week
SNOW breaking out 2.5% off its 52-week high after a +12.7% week — a +113% three-month run, not a one-week pop
ITGR breaking out 0.9% off its 52-week high after a +25.2% week — a +48% three-month run, not a one-week pop
CRM coming into play — 30.9% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+7.1% this week)
BABAE coming into play — 33.9% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+10.7% this week)
ADBE coming into play — 32.2% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+5.7% this week)
MSFT $442 watch-grade call — 4 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, tape, regime); trigger at $442 trend-hold
CCJ watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · tape broken trend-hold
NTLA $18.50 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $18.50 · tape broken trend-hold
PL watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · tape broken trend-hold
CEG $269 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, regime); trigger at $269 trend-hold
LEU $177 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, regime); trigger at $177 trend-hold
NVDA $209.81 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $209.81 trend-hold
PANW watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime) trend-hold
STX $808.65 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, regime); trigger at $808.65 trend-hold
WDAY watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime) trend-hold
ZM $92 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, regime); trigger at $92 trend-hold
AAPL no setup today — drifting down, -9.9% this week, 11.9% off its 52-week high
ARGX no setup today — drifting down, -6.5% this week, 12.9% off its 52-week high
ARM no setup today — drifting down, -10.2% this week, 47.2% off its 52-week high trend-hold
ARQQ no setup today — under pressure, +1.5% this week, 70.2% off its 52-week high
GOOGL no setup today — still in trend, +14.4% this week, 8.6% off its 52-week high
HQ no setup today — moving sideways, +11.0% this week, 69.4% off its 52-week high
INFQ no setup today — moving sideways, +12.5% this week, 48.4% off its 52-week high
IONQ no setup today — moving sideways, +8.2% this week, 54.1% off its 52-week high
LAES no setup today — under pressure, +1.2% this week, 71.2% off its 52-week high
MU no setup today — drifting down, -7.8% this week, 33.9% off its 52-week high trend-hold
NET no setup today — still in trend, +6.5% this week, 3.8% off its 52-week high
NTR no setup today — moving sideways, -2.1% this week, 22.7% off its 52-week high
OUST no setup today — still in trend, +20.9% this week, 33.4% off its 52-week high
QBTS no setup today — under pressure, +2.4% this week, 57.3% off its 52-week high
QUBT no setup today — under pressure, +9.8% this week, 66.2% off its 52-week high
RGTI no setup today — under pressure, +2.4% this week, 72.5% off its 52-week high
SNDK no setup today — drifting down, +0.8% this week, 45.3% off its 52-week high trend-hold
TSLA no setup today — under pressure, +4.2% this week, 35.4% off its 52-week high
XNDU no setup today — moving sideways, +10.9% this week, 73.3% off its 52-week high
The desk's frozen record The machine-built sections as this issue recorded them — the tape, calls, and wires that were true on this date (desk plumbing and file-path lines removed for reading).
Regime State
- State counts: collapse: 36, pullback: 104, uptrend: 100, downtrend: 5.
- Latest transition batch: 2026-07-31 vs 2026-07-30; 13 confirmed state-to-state flips, 4 entries, 0 exits.
- Confirmed flips: $ACHC uptrend -> pullback; $ANDE basing -> pullback; $BKD uptrend -> pullback; $CAKE uptrend -> parabolic; $CECO pullback -> downtrend; $CLDX pullback -> uptrend.
- Notable entries: $AGM -> uptrend; $CDNA -> uptrend.
Cross-sector Rotation
- Money rotating INTO Canadian OG (RS +9.8, 71% strong-up), China Tech (RS +9.1, 13% strong-up), Alt Managers (RS +8.1, 0% strong-up) — OUT OF Space (RS -22.1), Memory (RS -20.5), CPU Shortage Supply Chain (RS -18.6). Benchmark SPY +0.8% 30d. ⚡ EMERGING (turning up before the trailing board): Tech (accel +8.2, 50% up), Airlines (accel +6.3, 100% up), Mag7 (accel +6.2, 63% up), Tech Insider Buys (accel +5.5, 60% up), Cybersec (accel +5.3, 91% up).
- ⚡ Front-run (emerging, turning up before the trailing board): Tech (accel +8.2, 50% up); Airlines (accel +6.3, 100% up); Mag7 (accel +6.2, 63% up); Tech Insider Buys (accel +5.5, 60% up); Cybersec (accel +5.3, 91% up).
- Leadership shifts since last run: China Tech (new-leader); Alt Managers (new-leader); Trace Iran War Second And Third Order Effects (lost-leadership); Government Compute (lost-leadership); CPU Shortage Supply Chain (new-laggard); Memory (new-laggard); Quantum Computing (left-laggards); WFE Test Metrology (left-laggards).
Volatility Gate
- VIX 15.86 (CALM) · 1d -0.8%. 😴 VIX CALM — 15.86 (<16). Complacent; no fear discount available.
- No fire-sale trigger (rule: >=30% one-day spike is the trigger; the level alone is context).
- Credit tape (7d): HYG +0.1% · LQD -0.4% · IEF -0.5% — the flush-vs-break discriminator: orderly credit means the selling is positioning, not a credit event.
The Prints
- $BRK-B — The report landed around 2026-08-01, but no filed quarter covering the print is available from the desk's financial sources yet — actuals land with the next filing. Across the print the stock moved +0.3% (close before → first close after).
Upcoming Prints (next 72h)
- 2026-08-04 — $AMD, $SPCX, $CAT, $5991.T, $MCD, $MAR, $ETN, $ANET +90 more
- 2026-08-05 — $SNDK, $WDC, $LLY, $5991.T, $SHOP, $FTNT, $CRCL, $DIS +120 more
- 2026-08-06 — $6324.T, $NBIS, $MCD, $DDOG, $AAOI, $RKLB, $GILD, $CIFR +119 more
Tripwires
- Tripwires: no new trips since the 2026-08-03 duty pass.
Desk Calls
| Ticker | Stance | Entry | Review-by | 30d vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $CVX | watch | strongest RSI in the upstream cohort (67.2) — hold above the 20-day (~$185.34) to… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GLD | watch | this is a signal to watch, not a trade — a reclaim of the 20-day (~$373.15) would be… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $HAL | avoid | not a trend-hold candidate yet — wait for a base and a reclaim of the 50-day… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $PSX | watch | RSI is a hair under overbought (69.7) — wait for a pullback to the 20-day (~$200.76)… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $USO | watch | the -5.5% weekly pullback holds above the 20-day (~$121.96) — a normal pullback… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $VLO | watch | same setup as PSX — a pullback to the 20-day (~$295.63); note this row is one… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $CEG | watch | reclaim the 20-day (~$256) with hyperscaler spending language intact on the Jul… | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $ELAN | watch | a volume-confirmed (at least average volume) close through the 52-week high… | 2026-08-14 | pending |
| $GEV | watch | held the AI unwind at −5%; reclaim the 20-day (~$1,085) and print a higher low | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $LEU | watch | first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta… | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $CLMT | pass | RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold;… | 2026-09-04 | pending |
| $DK | pass | reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a… | 2026-09-04 | pending |
| $MPC | watch | the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the… | 2026-08-21 | pending |
| $MU | watch (invalidation?) | Friday printed a reversal bar (low $804, closed $848.95); a close above that bar's… | 2026-08-14 | pending |
| $NVDA | watch (in zone) | the general never broke (−3.7% in 30 days vs the ETF's −15.7%); a reclaim of its… | 2026-08-14 | pending |
| $PANW | watch | the lane's strongest structure (-2.7% from its 52-week high, +83% on the year);… | 2026-09-04 | pending |
| $PL | watch (invalidation?) | untouchable while the knife falls (RSI 30, −14% on the week); interest begins when… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $PSX | watch | the diversified laggard of the three (+70% on the year, midstream/chem mix dilutes… | 2026-08-21 | pending |
| $S | watch | the laggard catching up (+30% in 30 days, still only +9% on the year and -8.6% from… | 2026-09-10 | pending |
| $SMH | watch (invalidation?) | the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low,… | 2026-08-14 | pending |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | the complex's only accumulation-shaped bar: +5.7% on 1.35× volume, closed near the… | 2026-08-14 | pending |
| $VLO | watch | best 12-month tape of the pure refiners (+117%); same frame — first 20-day hold… | 2026-08-21 | pending |
| $ARM | watch (in zone) | reclaim the pre-registered $270 line and hold it — the trigger the thesis flag broke… | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $CCJ | watch | washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $CEG | watch (in zone) | the merchant bellwether needs a turn signature, not a dip-buy — a base under the… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $DUK | watch | the one working expression — regulated rate-base growth from the same demand; a… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $LEU | watch (in zone) | only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $MU | watch | gated on the prints, not the chart — a storage/memory print (STX Jul 28, WDC Jul 29,… | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $NVDA | watch | the R1 playbook leg — hold the 20-day retest (~$202) through the July 28–29 storage… | 2026-08-08 | pending |
| $VST | watch (in zone) | reclaim the 200-day (~$166) and hold it — first sign the derate is done | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $ABCL | watch (invalidation?) | the pop already happened (Feb low $2.78 to a $8.44 high) — this is the first flag;… | 2026-08-31 | pending |
| $CBRS | watch | a close above the post-flush bounce high ($221.30) confirms the higher low and… | 2026-08-31 | pending |
| $META | watch (invalidation?) | second reclaim attempt off a higher low — buy interest is a close above ~$665,… | 2026-08-31 | pending |
| $MSFT | watch (in zone) | no turn signature yet — interest begins at the 200-day reclaim (~$442) after a base;… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $NTLA | watch (invalidation?) | golden cross, +31% month, and a fresh impulse into $18.48 on July 2 — buy interest… | 2026-08-31 | pending |
| $ORCL | pass | reopen when the knife stops: the February low ($136) holds on this retest AND a +7%… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $AXTI | pass | reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $CIFR | pass | reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $CORZ | pass | reopen on a recapitalization that restores positive equity with the CoreWeave… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $CRDO | buy (in zone) | elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $CRWV | pass | reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $EQT | watch | the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $HUT | pass | reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and… | 2026-10-01 | pending |
| $KGS | buy (invalidation?) | the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power… | 2026-08-15 | pending |
| $MXL | watch (in zone) | wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no… | 2026-08-15 | pending |
| $NBIS | buy (in zone) | pullback within an intact uptrend — buy the 50-day reclaim at ~$217, which says the… | 2026-08-31 | pending |
| $OKTA | pass | the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $TER | buy | the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS… | 2026-08-15 | pending |
| $WDAY | watch | the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but… | 2026-09-15 | pending |
| $WULF | watch (invalidation?) | the $2.63B war chest has to start converting into hosting revenue on the P&L — watch… | 2026-08-15 | pending |
| $SKHY | watch (invalidation?) | first clean post-debut base — not the open (debut ~2026-07-10) | 2026-08-01 (overdue) | n/a |
| $ZM | watch (in zone) | 2 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue; base over $92 | 2026-09-01 | pending |
| $MU | buy | own the up-cycle with cycle sizing — record DRAM/HBM pricing power, HBM booked… | 2026-09-01 | pending |
| $SNDK | watch | only on evidence the +69% NAND operating margin is a baseline, not the peak — two… | 2026-09-01 | pending |
| $STX | buy | own the cleanest un-hyped inflection — nearline-HDD margins compounding 23%→32% over… | 2026-09-01 | pending |
| $WDC | buy | same nearline thesis as STX — margins 10%→36% on the same AI storage driver, no hype… | 2026-09-01 | pending |
A desk call is an authored stance from a published report; entry and invalidation conditions are human-read, and the full ledger lives at /calls.
30d vs SPY is the raw name-vs-SPY move since the call — for trim/sell calls a NEGATIVE number means the call worked (the name fell after it).
From the Feeds
Curated picks from the last 7 days of the X / Reddit / Discord / web sweep — items the desk read and kept, not the raw capture firehose. Source: -pick- (type: curated-find).
𝕏@fintergirl — Korean retail's 2x inverse SK Hynix ETF lost ~60% in one day when the squeeze snapped back $EWY $SKHY · link- The retail echo of the fund unwind: forum traders flipped to 2x inverse ETFs mid-crash to ride the downside, then SK Hynix limit-upped 30% on the KOSPI's record Friday and the inverse products lost ~60% in a session. Leverage got carried out on both sides of the same week — the same both-directions-forced signature as…
𝕏@gabriel_horwitz — Korea's 'ants': the generation that turned the stock market into its housing fund $EWY · link- The structural why behind Korea's record margin debt: roughly 14 million retail traders — in a country of 52 million — using the market as a substitute wealth ladder after housing became unreachable. The margin fuel that made Friday's record +17.91% snap possible was building for years before one fund's liquidation li…
redditu/nbaphilly17 — r/stocks — CXMT's IPO pop doesn't touch SK Hynix's actual HBM thesis $HY9H.F · link- A grounded rebuttal to the CXMT-panic framing that's been hitting SK Hynix and the broader memory trade this week: argues CXMT's outsized IPO pop reflects share gains in commodity DRAM, not the HBM3E/HBM4, advanced-packaging, and hyperscaler-qualification businesses that actually anchor the SK Hynix bull case, and tha…
webReuters / Benzinga / TipRanks (via SEC… — AXT — Tongmei withdraws Shanghai STAR IPO bid, pivots to Hong Kong listing for InP business $AXTI · link- AXT's China-based substrate subsidiary Tongmei is withdrawing its Shanghai STAR Market IPO application and instead pursuing a Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing focused specifically on the indium phosphide business, per Reuters citing an SEC filing (also reported by Benzinga and TipRanks, all dated 2026-07-29). AXT shar…
𝕏Gaetano (@crux_capital_) — crux_capital_ — the photonics buildout isn't over, even at the height of fear $LITE $GLW $COHR $AAOI $SIVEF · link- A tracked photonics-supply-chain analyst who has followed this complex through the pre-hype, peak-hype, and now sentiment-washout phases argues the underlying physical buildout across Lumentum, Corning, Coherent, Applied Optoelectronics, and Sivers Semiconductors (tagged $SIVE, tracked as SIVEF) hasn't stopped even as…
𝕏Zephyr (@zephyr_z9) — zephyr_z9 — China's chip-export jump traces to Korean-owned fabs, not indigenous mature-node output $HY9H.F · link- Pushes back on the read that a jump in Chinese chip exports reflects domestic mature-node chipmaking closing the gap: attributes the increase specifically to SK Hynix's own Dalian NAND and Wuxi DRAM fabs and Samsung's Xi'an NAND fab — Korean-owned capacity operating inside China, not a Chinese-chip substitution story.…
Filings
- NEW: $QBTS 8-K filed 2026-08-03 (period 2026-08-03)
- NEW: $HQ 6-K filed 2026-08-03 (period 2026-08-03)
- NEW: $ARGX 6-K filed 2026-08-03 (period 2026-08-03)
- NEW: $BNTX 6-K filed 2026-08-03 (period 2026-08-03)
- NEW: $PLTR 8-K filed 2026-08-03 (period 2026-08-03)
- NEW: $POET 6-K filed 2026-08-03 (period 2026-08-03)
- Last 14 days: $QBTS 8-K (2026-08-03); $HQ 6-K (2026-08-03); $ARGX 6-K (2026-08-03); $BNTX 6-K (2026-08-03); $PLTR 8-K (2026-08-03); $POET 6-K (2026-08-03); $AAPL 10-Q (2026-07-31); $AMZN 10-Q (2026-07-31); ….
Breadth And Movers
Price truth: *; primary summary date 2026-08-03. Row dates: 2026-08-03: 1783, 2026-07-31: 45, 2026-07-30: 2, 2026-07-17: 1, 2026-07-16: 1, 2026-06-29: 1.
- Summary coverage: 1783/1833 rows at 2026-08-03; 1016 unique symbols after de-duplication.
- Unique-symbol breadth: 740 up, 268 down, 8 flat; median 1D change +1.5%.
- Market-pulse breadth: 30 up, 11 down, 0 flat; median 1D change +0.5% from market-pulse.
Top gainers by 1D change (filtered to price >= $1, dollar volume >= $50M, finite RSI):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $CRWV | +19.5% | +21.1% | -0.8% | 52.7 | strong-down | $85.76 | ai-power |
| $TE | +18.5% | +0.8% | -42.9% | 39.8 | down | $4.94 | ev-clean-energy |
| $AAOI | +16.9% | +12.7% | -10.7% | 48.0 | weak-down | $110.21 | monster-discoveries |
| $BFLY | +15.6% | +16.3% | -0.1% | 59.1 | strong-up | $8.22 | monster-discoveries |
| $AEHR | +14.7% | +18.4% | +26.8% | 54.7 | strong-up | $91.71 | monster-discoveries |
Top laggards by 1D change (same filter):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SSPC | -11.3% | -3.8% | +81.2% | 62.2 | neutral | $20.56 | etf-ideas |
| $KRYS | -8.4% | -11.2% | -16.6% | 37.6 | weak-down | $312.57 | monster-discoveries |
| $MAR | -7.0% | -9.5% | -8.7% | 32.9 | Oversold | $346.83 | travel-leisure |
| $EBAY | -6.0% | -5.4% | -5.8% | 40.6 | weak-down | $107.13 | holdings-stocks |
| $MPWR | -5.7% | +0.4% | -0.1% | 48.3 | weak-down | $1344.37 | ai-power |
Targets In Zone
| Target | Anchor date | Tickers | Mechanical status | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG — Desk Call Target (2026-07-17) | 2026-07-17 | $CEG | AT THE LINE - CEG $262.75 sits essentially at its 50-day ($263.20, -0.2%), RSI… | base under the 50-day (~$269), then a reclaim that holds with a higher low |
| NVDA — Entry-Zone Target (2026-07-11 full-scan promotion, AI) | 2026-07-11 | $NVDA | ✅ HIT — NVDA $206.84, RSI 51.0, weak-down, golden cross, +1.7% vs SMA20… | $198–204 (SMA20 $201.95 retest) — buy the flag, not the pop |
| GOOGL — Entry-Zone Target (2026-06-26 EOW anchor) | 2026-06-26 | $GOOGL | ✅ HIT — GOOGL $319.74, RSI 32.8, down trend, golden cross, -9.2% vs SMA20,… | SMA20 reclaim ~$360 is THE rotation bellwether → confirms quality-dip resumes;… |
| CRWD — Entry-Zone Target (2026-06-25 full-scan anchor) | 2026-06-25 | $CRWD | AT THE LINE - CRWD $190.86 sits essentially on its 20-day ($192.25, -0.7%),… | $168.70 constructive flag → add on the SMA20 reclaim (~$173.25) —… |
| GEV — Entry-Zone Target (R33, 2026-06-18 anchor) | 2026-06-22 | $GEV | IN ZONE - GEV $990.29 is inside the [$960.00-$1,010.00] entry zone. RSI 46.3,… | $960-$1010 |
| ADBE entry-zone — $195-$210 | 2026-06-16 | $ADBE | ✅ HIT — ADBE $225.11, RSI 51.5 (recovered from 31.7), strong-down trend but… | $195-$210 |
| CRWD entry-zone — $163.75-$172.50 (split-adjusted) | 2026-06-16 | $CRWD | ✅ HIT — CRWD $183.28 (split-adjusted), RSI 47.3, strong-up, golden cross,… | $163.75-$172.50 (split-adjusted 4:1 2026-07-02; set pre-split as $655-$690) |
| COST entry-zone - $920-$960 | 2026-05-29 | $COST | IN ZONE - COST $951.89 is inside the [$920.00-$960.00] entry zone. RSI 51.9,… | $920-$960 |
Convergence Leaders
- Stocks in projection: 588;
convergentCount3;divergentCount11.