Brief — Aug 3, 2026

Brief Ticker Tape

1. The Read

What happened last week

Last week was the week one leveraged book died in public, and the tape spent five sessions processing the corpse. Situational Awareness LP's forced liquidation — roughly $45B at 4x gross, unwound into a Thursday block sale to Citadel — took a third off the KOSPI and halved the memory complex before snapping back in the most violent reversal prints of the year: Korea's index rose a record +17.91% Friday, SanDisk swung from −50% peak-to-trough to +26% in a single session, and the software names the fund was short (Adobe, Salesforce, Workday) put up double-digit weeks as the shorts were bought back. The desk's read, published Friday, stands: a single-book liquidation, not a fundamental re-rate — and the VIX never confirming (it ended July lower) was the tell that the damage was one portfolio's, not the market's. Meanwhile the megacaps quietly had one of their best earnings weeks in memory: Microsoft's beat drove a +25.33% week (now RSI 78.3, +21.3% above its 20-day — extended by any measure), Amazon's +15% earnings pop carried it to within 1.1% of its 52-week high, and Alphabet followed +14.38% on the week. Strength at the top, wreckage underneath, and a record snap-back in between.

Today: the turn tried to broaden

Monday was the first session that looked like a market turn rather than a squeeze echo. SPY closed $757.67, +1.42%, RSI 59.7 with the trailing month back positive — crossing the index-momentum condition the desk's midterm-window watch seeded a week ago, its first trigger to fire. The breadth gauge flipped to broad strength the same hour, and the leadership was pure risk appetite: quantum computing +7.2% median with all thirteen names green (QBTS +10.51%, RGTI +7.16%, IONQ +6.61%), space +5.7%, alternative managers +5.2%, CoreWeave +19.49% leading the AI-infra rebound. The whiplash cohort itself kept building: SanDisk +6.03%, holding well above last week's low. The lagging side was defensive and agricultural — food security −1.5% median, Nutrien −4.5% — plus one honest counter-tell: the gold/silver ratio ticked defensive on a day nothing else did. One session proves nothing, but the shape was the one the turn-watchers wanted: breadth up, spec bid, safe havens ignored.

Tonight: Palantir answered the only question that mattered

After the close, the print this desk spent ten weeks calling "the only resolution" resolved — emphatically toward the re-rate. Q2 revenue $1.935B, +93% against a consensus of ~$1.81B; U.S. commercial revenue +149% against a bar of roughly +98%; U.S. government accelerating to +90%; GAAP net income $1.06B — a 55% margin — and guidance raised on every line: full-year revenue to +82%, U.S. commercial to +134%, adjusted free cash flow to $4.5–4.7B. Shares were reported up ~12% after hours, inside the 9–15% band the options market priced. The deceleration thesis that drove the name from $208 to a death-crossed $126 now has to explain a company that accelerated while its multiple was cut in half. An after-hours indication is not a settled price — confirmation is still settled closes above the 20- and 50-day and a higher low — but the argument is over, and the argument was the position.

This week: the heaviest print calendar of the quarter

Roughly 390 companies report in the next 72 hours. Tuesday: AMD — the marquee — with Caterpillar, McDonald's, Pfizer, Amgen, Arista, Super Micro. Wednesday is the memory thesis's own verdict day: SanDisk and Western Digital report with the forced seller gone — the cleanest pricing-power read of the cycle — alongside Disney, Lilly, Novo, Uber, Shopify, and the desk's livestock pick Elanco. Thursday: Cloudflare (after tonight's Palantir read-through, the software-growth print to watch), Datadog, Brookfield, Constellation, and the AI-infra cohort's Nebius. The week answers, in order: did the AI trade's demand hold (AMD), did memory pricing power survive the unwind (SNDK/WDC), and does growth software re-rate off Palantir's print (NET/DDOG).

Watch Tuesday: AMD after the close, and whether PLTR's after-hours move survives to a settled close above $130.49 — the 50-day, the first gate of its own confirmation sequence.

Extended analysis

The Desk Archived issue, published . Only the modules that are actually true for this date are shown — what changed since the prior issue, the scans it rests on, and the catalysts in its week. The desk's live state (calls, paper book, alarm board, tape internals) belongs to today, not to this issue, so it is not replayed here: see Calls, Positions and Tape.

Conditions

The market climate this issue was written in — frozen from its own date by design. Every day's card, in order, is on Conditions.

Volatility
VIX 15.86CALM · 1d -0.8%No fire-sale trigger — needs a ≥30% one-day spike
Rotation · 30d strength
15 in / 33 outEach side counts the desk's tracked theme watchlists (68 ranked) by the 30-day median relative strength of their member stocks vs SPY — shown in RS points. Any ETFs listed are trade handles for the theme, not the measurement.
Credit · 7d
HYG+0.1%LQD-0.4%IEF-0.5%Orderly credit = the selling is positioning, not a credit event
Hard assets · 7d
GLD-0.8%USO-5.5%COPX+1.9%Gold · oil · copper miners
Rotation board Show all 10 themes
Rotating in RS vs SPY
  1. Canadian OG +9.8
    Tracked ETFs EWCXLE
  2. China Tech +9.1
    Tracked ETFs KWEBFXIASHR
  3. Alt Managers +8.1
    Tracked ETFs PSP
  4. Cloud SAAS +8.0
    Tracked ETFs CLOUSKYY
  5. Web Cloud +6.7
    Tracked ETFs SKYY
Rotating out RS vs SPY
  1. Space -22.1
    Tracked ETFs ARKX
  2. Memory -20.5
    Tracked ETFs DRAMEWYDISK
  3. CPU Shortage Supply Chain -18.6
    Tracked ETFs SMH
  4. Supply Chain Traces -14.6
  5. WFE Test Metrology -14.0

Each side counts the desk's tracked theme watchlists (68 ranked) by the 30-day median relative strength of their member stocks vs SPY — shown in RS points. Any ETFs listed are trade handles for the theme, not the measurement.

Frozen snapshot — numbers are as of 2026-08-03 by design; the dated strip of these cards is the climate history.

This Week's Catalysts

Recent prints come from this issue's frozen record; upcoming rows are calendar entries dated 2026-08-03 through 2026-08-09. Curated big events and tracked earnings are visible; the full print calendar stays behind the fold.

No curated big-event catalysts on file for this week.

Tracked earnings · 16

Focus-list and tape-moving names. All 425 earnings and dividend prints remain available below.

AMD Beat vs analyst consensus
Aug 4
EPS $1.66 est. $1.61 · +3.2%
CAT Beat vs analyst consensus
Aug 4
EPS $8.17 est. $6.20 · +31.8%
HQ Miss vs analyst consensus
Aug 4
EPS $-0.10 est. $-0.09 · -12.8%
IONQ Miss vs analyst consensus
Aug 5
EPS $-5.08 est. $-0.60 · -748.6%
LLY Beat vs analyst consensus
Aug 5
EPS $8.38 est. $6.58 · +27.3%
NTR Miss vs analyst consensus
Aug 5
EPS $2.61 est. $2.72 · -3.9%
SHOP Beat vs analyst consensus
Aug 5
EPS $0.42 est. $0.40 · +5.0%
SNDK Beat vs analyst consensus
Aug 5
EPS $39.25 est. $34.52 · +13.7%
WDC Beat vs analyst consensus
Aug 5
EPS $3.56 est. $3.30 · +7.9%
XNDU Miss vs analyst consensus
Aug 5
EPS $-0.13 est. $-0.10 · -32.4%
NET Beat vs analyst consensus
Aug 6
EPS $0.29 est. $0.27 · +7.5%
OUST Miss vs analyst consensus
Aug 6
EPS $-0.26 est. $-0.14 · -91.0%
QBTS Miss vs analyst consensus
Aug 6
EPS $-0.13 est. $-0.09 · -42.2%
RGTI In line vs analyst consensus
Aug 6
EPS $-0.05 est. $-0.05 · -8.1%
BRK-B Beat vs analyst consensus
Aug 8
EPS $6.03 est. $5.13 · +17.4%
All earnings & dividend prints this week (425)
  • Aug 3 earnings ADEA ADEA earnings — 2026-08-03
  • Aug 3 earnings AEIS AEIS earnings — 2026-08-03
  • Aug 3 earnings ALSN ALSN earnings — 2026-08-03
  • Aug 3 earnings ANDE ANDE earnings — 2026-08-03
  • Aug 3 earnings AROC AROC earnings — 2026-08-03
  • Aug 3 earnings ATKR ATKR earnings — 2026-08-03
  • Aug 3 earnings AXON AXON earnings — 2026-08-03
  • Aug 3 earnings AXSM AXSM earnings — 2026-08-03 (no report on this date)
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  • Aug 3 earnings VRTX VRTX earnings — 2026-08-03
  • Aug 4 earnings 5991.T 5991.T earnings — 2026-08-04
  • Aug 4 earnings ACLS ACLS earnings — 2026-08-04
  • Aug 4 earnings ADEA ADEA earnings — 2026-08-04
  • Aug 4 earnings ADM ADM earnings — 2026-08-04
  • Aug 4 earnings AEIS AEIS earnings — 2026-08-04
  • Aug 4 earnings AIP AIP earnings — 2026-08-04
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  • Aug 4 earnings AMD AMD earnings — 2026-08-04
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  • Aug 4 earnings COGT COGT earnings — 2026-08-04 (no report on this date)
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  • Aug 5 earnings 5991.T 5991.T earnings — 2026-08-05
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  • Aug 5 earnings GDRZF GDRZF earnings — 2026-08-05 (print unconfirmed; same quarter as August 10)
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  • Aug 5 earnings INSW INSW earnings — 2026-08-05 (no report on this date)
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  • Aug 5 earnings SEER SEER earnings — 2026-08-05 (no report on this date)
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  • Aug 6 earnings 6324.T 6324.T earnings — 2026-08-06
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  • Aug 6 earnings ALMR ALMR earnings — 2026-08-06 (no report on this date)
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  • Aug 6 earnings ARBE ARBE earnings — 2026-08-06
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  • Aug 6 earnings MTSI MTSI earnings — 2026-08-06
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  • Aug 6 earnings NBIS NBIS earnings — 2026-08-06 (CORRECTION: no report landed on this date)
  • Aug 6 earnings NET NET earnings — 2026-08-06
  • Aug 6 earnings NHC NHC earnings — 2026-08-06
  • Aug 6 earnings NKTR NKTR earnings — 2026-08-06
  • Aug 6 earnings NSIT NSIT earnings — 2026-08-06
  • Aug 6 earnings NTLA NTLA earnings — 2026-08-06
  • Aug 6 earnings NTRA NTRA earnings — 2026-08-06
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  • Aug 6 earnings QBTS QBTS earnings — 2026-08-06
  • Aug 6 earnings QTRX QTRX earnings — 2026-08-06 (no report on this date)
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  • Aug 6 earnings TXG TXG earnings — 2026-08-06
  • Aug 6 earnings TXRH TXRH earnings — 2026-08-06
  • Aug 6 earnings U U earnings — 2026-08-06
  • Aug 6 earnings UMAC UMAC earnings — 2026-08-06
  • Aug 6 earnings ZTS ZTS earnings — 2026-08-06
  • Aug 7 earnings ACMR ACMR earnings — 2026-08-07
  • Aug 7 earnings ALM ALM earnings — 2026-08-07 (no report on this date)
  • Aug 7 earnings AMR AMR earnings — 2026-08-07
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  • Aug 7 earnings CGON CGON earnings — 2026-08-07
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  • Aug 7 earnings RR RR earnings — 2026-08-07
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  • Aug 7 earnings XNDU XNDU earnings — 2026-08-07
  • Aug 8 earnings BRK-B BRK-B earnings — 2026-08-08