1. The Read
The market did not fall today. One half of it was taken apart while the other half had its best session in months, and the index in the middle barely moved.
SPY closed $760.88, down 0.45%, RSI 47.3, still 6.5% above its 200-day. The equal-weight S&P closed up 0.07%. That pair is the whole story: when the cap-weighted index is red and the equal-weighted one is green, the damage is sitting in a handful of large index members, not in the broad market. QQQ -0.79%, IWM -0.34%, and the Russell has been the weakest of the three for a month (RSI 37.4, -5.63% over thirty days).
Where the damage sat was not ambiguous. Optical supply chain closed 0 of 28 names up on an -8.8% median. Wafer-fab equipment and test closed 0 of 13 at -8.4%, etch equipment 0 of 6 at -8.3%, high-speed interconnect 0 of 9 at -7.9%, data-center fiber 0 of 15 at -7.9%. Semis closed 0 of 18. Memory closed 0 of 10 at -6.6%. Across 122 lanes with at least three settled names, 46 closed at least 90% down. This was not selling; it was a single complex being marked down together.
And in the same session, cybersecurity closed 11 of 11 up on a +10.7% median — ZS +16.5%, S +14.5%, CRWD +13.8%, PANW +13.1%, OKTA +12.0%, FTNT +9.0%, NET +7.8%. Cloud software closed 16 of 16 green at +5.5%. Ten lanes closed at least 90% up. A day cannot be risk-off and produce two double-digit-green lanes.
The news layer gives the two halves a shared cause, which is the part worth slowing down for. Coverage on the security names attributes the move to AI leaders publicly warning about cybersecurity risk, and the read-through to higher security budgets — CrowdStrike's coverage names a roughly 15% move on exactly that, Palo Alto's names ~11%. The same week's loudest AI story is an argument about whether the buildout should slow down. So one narrative paid twice: sell the people who make the hardware, buy the people who protect what it runs. That is a rotation inside the AI trade, not an exit from it.
Two of the day's biggest single-name moves have their own causes and should not be read as lane weather. Corning fell 13.7% on 2.0× volume, and its own coverage names a $2 billion at-the-market equity offering — dilution, arriving on the worst possible day for its lane. Elmet rose 32.8% on 41.5× volume on a $450 million Department of War committed investment in domestic and allied tungsten supply — a defense-materials award, unrelated to anything else on this page. Silicon Motion fell 16.8% with large zero-coupon convertible offerings in its coverage. Teradyne (-13.3%), Nokia (-13.3%) and Innio (-14.3%) had no same-day driver in their pulls: the searches ran and returned nothing that explains the move.
Underneath all of it is rates. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% intraday before reversing, ahead of a Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, September 16 that the coverage on file expects to be a hike, not a cut. TLT sits at RSI 35.9 and 5.9% below its 200-day; HYG is at RSI 27.2. Gold sold into it — GLD -1.5% on the day and -3.4% on the week, 5.6% under its 200-day — which is the unusual detail, because the same session's macro pull carries fresh attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping and on Saudi infrastructure. Gold falling on a war headline while the dollar firms says the rates story is currently louder than the geopolitical one. Crude is not confused: USO closed $156.66, +10.4% on the week and +23.7% on the month, RSI 73.1.
Three of the desk's regime gauges transitioned in this one session — breadth from fragile to deteriorating, volatility from compressed to neutral, and the gold/dollar pair to gold-breaking-down-with-a-firm-dollar — while the volatility gate moved CALM to NORMAL at a VIX of 17.1, up 8%. Three gauges turning on a half-percent day is the kind of thing that is either early or wrong, and it is written up on its own today rather than buried here.
What last week left behind
Friday's session was the mirror image of this one: every leveraged index leg closed green, the volatility gate read CALM, and semis had just reclaimed their 20-day averages for the first time in that stretch. The desk's own leveraged paper book wrote down on Friday that the reclaim was "the price half of Rule 1 finally passing" while the trend label still disagreed. Monday resolved that disagreement against the price. Nothing that looked like a base on Friday is a base tonight.
What this week has to settle
Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision is the week's only scheduled event that can reprice everything on this page at once. The print calendar is nearly empty behind it — FPS Tuesday before the open, ALMU Wednesday after the close — so there is no earnings cover for a rate surprise and no company news scheduled to argue with it. Micron reports September 30, which is the next dated test of the memory leg.
Watch Wednesday: the Federal Reserve decision, and specifically whether the AI-hardware complex can hold a bid after it. The level that matters is SPY's 200-day, 6.5% below today's close — until that is in play, this is a rotation and the index is doing its job. The thing that would prove this reading wrong is software giving the gains back while breadth keeps narrowing; the thing that would confirm it is hardware stabilizing without the index needing to rally.
Extended analysis
Leaders and laggards
451 advancing 648 declining 59.8% above the 200-day Color is 7-day price direction, not a buy or sell call.
Leaders
top 7D gainersLaggards
top 7D losers2. What Changed Since the Last Brief
Screen CROSSINGS between the previous brief's close ( ) and this one — a name appears only on the session it crossed, not for as long as it stays there. Every name carries its before → after.
New oversold (21) — CRS RSI 30.1 → 25.4, PDI RSI 30.3 → 25.5, NG.L RSI 33.8 → 27.7, PEG RSI 34.5 → 28.2, OSS RSI 31 → 28.3, IR RSI 30.2 → 28.5, XNDU RSI 32.6 → 28.7, MMME RSI 32.9 → 28.8, CDNS RSI 32.7 → 28.9, DTE RSI 31.8 → 28.9, CCL RSI 30 → 29, ENS RSI 38.2 → 29.2, HWM RSI 30.2 → 29.2, PPA RSI 30.8 → 29.2, MYRG RSI 36.6 → 29.3, RTXE RSI 32.1 → 29.4, +5 more.
New overbought (9) — GRDN RSI 69.5 → 76.8, SLDE RSI 69.3 → 76.4, RBLX RSI 63.9 → 75.2, CLOV RSI 66.4 → 72.1, DV RSI 69.1 → 72.1, MATX RSI 65.9 → 71.5, META RSI 67.2 → 70.8, IDT RSI 68.5 → 70.4, TXG RSI 68.4 → 70.4.
Golden crossings (2) — ARES -0.08% → 0.21%, DHR 0% → 0.11%.
Death crossings (6) — 6471.T 0.19% → -0.1%, ATOM 0.19% → -1.33%, BEAM 0.03% → -0.73%, CNP 0.1% → -0.17%, RDW 0% → -0.37%, WOLF 0.1% → -1.1%.
New monsters (26) — ORKA 55.3% → 60.4%, PANW 40.1% → 57.9%, FTNT 39.8% → 51.8%, RBRK 25% → 44.2%, GH 32.7% → 41.2%, S 22.7% → 40.2%, FROG 31.6% → 40%, QLYS 20.1% → 38%, SDGR 25.5% → 36.8%, BUG 23.7% → 36.6%, APPN 23% → 35.7%, NSP 32.1% → 35.2%, DBX 28.1% → 34.2%, BWIN 24.1% → 33.8%, MANH 27.1% → 33%, TNET 27% → 32.1%, +10 more.
Newly near a 52-week high (40) — BUG -10.12% → -0.61% from high, HNGE -7.3% → -0.82% from high, GRDN -7.19% → -1.13% from high, NET -7.73% → -1.27% from high, IOVA -8.12% → -1.59% from high, CRWD -11.6% → -1.67% from high, OKTA -7.21% → -1.72% from high, BWIN -9.02% → -1.81% from high, FTNT -10.25% → -2.13% from high, CIBR -7.77% → -2.25% from high, KAROE -5.84% → -2.28% from high, CDNA -6.35% → -2.42% from high, DT -6.87% → -2.74% from high, HACK -9.9% → -2.8% from high, TEAM -9.52% → -2.94% from high, HAE -6.28% → -2.98% from high, +24 more.
Newly in an entry zone (4) — AVGO $344.72 · <$352.12, GDX $94.14 · <$95, LITE $835.03 · $830-$890, WMT $109.08 · $108–111 (base first) → confirm on SMA200 reclaim $116.71.
3. Three Things
1. The index hid a lane-level massacre. SPY -0.45% and equal-weight +0.07% against 46 of 122 lanes closing at least 90% down. Read lane tapes, not the index, on days like this.
2. One narrative paid on both sides. AI-risk commentary drove money out of the hardware that builds AI and into the software that secures it, in the same session. Cybersecurity 11 of 11 green at +10.7%; optical 0 of 28 at -8.8%.
3. Wednesday is a hike, not a cut, in the market's own pricing. The 10-year touched 5% before reversing. Every long-duration growth name on this page is priced against that decision, and the calendar has nothing else in the way.
4. Big Picture
The trend census still favours the bulls on paper — 252 confirmed uptrends against 121 downtrends, with 367 names in pullback and 29 state flips in the latest pass — but the pullback bucket is where the AI complex now lives, and it is the largest of the three. Rotation over thirty days is running into crypto, food security and the Iran-war second-order names, and out of optical supply chain, semiconductor test and drone defense. Today did not start that rotation; it accelerated it violently in one session.
The bond market is the binding constraint. A 10-year at 5% and a Federal Reserve expected to tighten into it is a straightforward multiple problem for anything whose earnings are years out — which describes most of the semicap, optical and neocloud complex. It is much less of a problem for software with current cash flows and a fresh spending catalyst, which is precisely the split the tape drew today.
The thing to hold lightly: one session is one session. The gauges that turned today turned on a day the index moved half a percent, and a single reversal on Wednesday would make this look like noise. The thing to hold firmly: the lanes moved as groups, 0 of 28 and 11 of 11, and group moves are not noise even when they are early.
5. Focus List
TSLA, AMZN, SHOP, ARGX, ILMN, NTR — no thesis change today; AMZN -1.3%, SHOP +4.0% off a weak week, NTR +12.8% on the month as fertiliser keeps working.
XNDU, PL, LAES — still the three most broken structures on the list: XNDU 35.1% below its 200-day, PL 40.3% below with RSI 22.7, LAES 30.3% below. Nothing here has turned.
IONQ, QBTS, RGTI, QUBT — the rest of the quantum cohort was quiet today (-0.3% to +2.0%) while HQ and ARQQ collapsed, which argues the two moves are name-specific rather than a cohort event.
The desk's takes cover 10 of 25 names; the rest show the mechanical tape state. 3 authored takes matched no row (TSLA, AMZN, SHOP, ARGX, ILMN, NTR, XNDU, PL, LAES, IONQ, QBTS, RGTI, QUBT) — kept in the chapter text above.
6. Sector Scorecard
Cybersecurity — +10.7% median, 11 of 11 up, 11.1 points ahead of the index, and the 30-day rank already read leading. The lane moved as one on an attributable catalyst. This is the day's cleanest signal.
Cloud software — +5.5%, 16 of 16 up, also leading on the month. Same bid, less violent.
Cloud ETFs / government compute / FAANG — +5.0% (4/4), +3.6% (6/6), +2.7% (4/5). The software complex was green across every slice of it.
Wafer-fab equipment and test — -8.4%, 0 of 13. Etch equipment -8.3%, 0 of 6. Semiconductor test and burn-in -10.4%, 0 of 3. The capital-equipment layer took the worst of it, which is consistent with a market repricing future AI capex rather than current AI revenue.
High-speed interconnect and data-center fiber — -7.9% each, 0 of 9 and 0 of 15. Co-packaged optics -7.7%, 1 of 34.
Electricity / AI power — -4.0%, 4 of 55 up. Dragged along rather than singled out.
ETF tape · 42 funds
The desk's curated ETF read — one fund per lane it tracks, not every fund on the watchlists — grouped by what the fund is exposed to, and where each closed on the issue date. The big number and the tile's shade are that session's move (1D); 7D and 30D are the trailing windows behind it, and RSI is the 14-day reading (above 70 is stretched, below 30 washed out). Shades near flat stay gray — a ±0.25% day is not a color.
Index & international · 9 funds
Tech, AI & cloud · 9 funds
Health & biotech · 3 funds
Commodities, energy & metals · 7 funds
Rates, credit, dollar & vol · 6 funds
Crypto · 2 funds
Income & real assets · 3 funds
The desk's assessments cover 3 of 122 lanes. 6 authored assessments matched no lane (cybersecurity, cloud software, cloud etfs / government compute / faang, wafer-fab equipment and test, high-speed interconnect and data-center fiber, electricity / ai power) — kept in the chapter text above.
7. Market Vibe
Unsettled, not frightened. VIX 17.1 and up 8% is a market paying a little more for protection, not one buying it in a hurry — the gate moved CALM to NORMAL, and VIXY still sits 31.6% below its own 200-day. Credit barely moved (HYG -0.09%), long bonds barely moved (TLT +0.07%), and the equal-weight index was green.
What is uncomfortable is the shape rather than the size. Whole lanes going 0-for-28 and 11-for-11 on the same afternoon is the signature of positioning being moved, not of opinions changing gradually. Days like that are usually the start of something or the end of something, and one session does not say which.
8. Scan Dashboard
| Board | Ran | What it returned |
|---|---|---|
| Trend leaders | 2026-09-14 | 96 names above their 200-day by tier (19 / 36 / 41); 1 newly discovered |
| Steady climbers | 2026-09-14 | 116 names, 14 entrants — GOOG, KO, VRTX, CPAY, CIBR, RHHBY, BIO, FLYW among them; ASML, GEV, TXN, LFUS, JCI dropped out |
| Parabolic tier | 2026-09-14 | 26 names, CRWD newly among them; the refiners CVI, DINO and VLO dropped out |
| Washout turns | 2026-09-14 | 12 names, 8 entrants — ACN, BAH, HUBS, TTD, IBM, COIN; CONY and SOXS are avoid-list wrappers, never proposed |
| Lazarus | 2026-09-14 | Lane closed +3.9%, 10 of 10 up |
| Stretch scan | 2026-09-14 | USO and BNO flagged stretched-momentum, RSI 72-73 |
| Screener suite | 2026-09-14 | Five commands, all clean; miss-screen opened six needs-evidence rows |
The two board diffs tell the same story as the tape: quality and security names walked into the trend-hold entry pool, and semicap and industrial names walked out.
9. Front Page
Three gauges turned on a day the index barely moved — the duty pass wrote up today's simultaneous breadth, volatility and gold/dollar transitions as a single regime observation, with the argument for reading it as rotation rather than risk-off, and the two conditions that would falsify it.
The AI-risk trade has two sides now — worth a proper piece if the split holds through Wednesday. Today produced the first clean instance of one narrative moving money in opposite directions across two lanes in one session, with attribution on both sides.
Corning's raise inside a lane rout — a $2B at-the-market offering landing on the day its sector fell 8.8% as a group. The interesting question is not the dilution; it is whether a supplier chose this week deliberately.
Monster Watch · 147 of 1108 tracked names
Sector Rotation Radar · 122 themes
Flow means 30-day relative strength versus SPY, not dollars moving: Inflow beat SPY by more than 2 points, Outflow trailed by more than 2, and Neutral stayed inside that band.
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AI Infra Outflow -6.3% 30D AI Infrastructure - hyperscalers (AMZN), GPUs (NVDA), lithography (ASML), power generation (TAC — TransAlta, Canadian IPP: hydro/wind/solar/battery/gas, NOT nuclear; label corrected 2026-06-19 from 'nuclear'), foundry… Thebuildout AI Storage Data Pipeline Outflow -6.3% 30D TheBuildout · AI Storage & Data Pipeline — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ai-storage-data-pipeline), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Thebuildout Renewable Energy Hyperscaler Ppas Outflow -6.3% 30D TheBuildout · Renewable Energy Developers (Hyperscaler PPAs) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/renewable-energy-hyperscaler-ppas), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Memory Outflow -6.4% 30D Memory & Storage - HBM/DRAM (MU), HDDs/SSDs (STX, WDC), thematic ETF (DRAM Roundhill Memory ETF — added 2026-05-06 after launching ~April 2026; note refresh 2026-05-10: now +101.9% off $26.14 low to $52.80 ATH, +13.4%… Thebuildout Grid Infrastructure Transmission Outflow -6.6% 30D TheBuildout · Grid Infrastructure & Transmission — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/grid-infrastructure-transmission), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout AI Data Center Operators Neoclouds Outflow -6.6% 30D TheBuildout · AI Data Center Operators & NeoClouds — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ai-data-center-operators-neoclouds), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Chemicals Outflow -7.0% 30D Chemicals & specialty materials — industrial cycle, energy input costs, diversified chemical producers. Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking Outflow -7.0% 30D TheBuildout · High-Speed PCBs (Server/Networking Grade) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/high-speed-pcbs-server-networking), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Specialty Electronic Gases Outflow -7.1% 30D TheBuildout · Specialty & Electronic Gases — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/specialty-electronic-gases), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of… Web Cloud Outflow -7.5% 30D Web/Cloud Infrastructure - Edge computing, CDN, databases, data platforms, observability Thebuildout Custom AI Silicon Hyperscaler Asics Outflow -7.9% 30D TheBuildout · Custom AI Silicon & Hyperscaler ASICs — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/custom-ai-silicon-hyperscaler-asics), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Livestock Disease Outflow -7.9% 30D Livestock-disease / beef supply-shock — single consolidated watchlist + alert hub for the New World Screwworm → cattle-supply thesis (first US case 2026-06-03; US herd 75-yr low; record beef). ROLES: (A) Animal-health… Retail Outflow -8.1% 30D Retail/Consumer - ETFs (XRT retail). Home Improvement (HD, LOW), E-commerce (SHOP), Athletic/Apparel (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX, ANF), Food/Beverage (SBUX, MCD, CMG, DPZ, YUM), General Retail (COST, WMT, TGT, TJX) EV Clean Energy Outflow -8.2% 30D EV makers + clean energy + related ETFs. Solar tracking (NXT Nextracker), industrial energy storage/batteries (ENS EnerSys). Lithium pure-plays added 2026-05-10 from… Cultural Thesis Outflow -8.5% 30D Cultural thesis watchlist — stocks driven by consumer behavior shifts, social arbitrage signals, and cultural cascades. HIMS = telehealth / GLP-1 cultural arbitrage (replaced BRBR as the protein-economy vehicle… Semis Outflow -8.7% 30D Semiconductors - GPUs (NVDA, AMD), foundry (TSM), networking chips (AVGO, MRVL), architecture (ARM), mobile (QCOM), equipment (ASML, AMAT), packaging (AMKR), analog/power (ON), programmable-logic (LSCC - added… Thebuildout AI Sensors Perception Hardware Outflow -8.7% 30D TheBuildout · AI Sensors & Perception Hardware — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ai-sensors-perception-hardware), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… CPU Shortage Supply Chain Outflow -8.8% 30D AI compute shortage supply chain across CPUs, high-speed connectivity, assembly and test, and semiconductor baskets. Thebuildout Dram Memory Outflow -9.1% 30D TheBuildout · DRAM Memory — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/dram-memory), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible head: 4… AI Infrastructure Outflow -9.6% 30D Complete AI Infrastructure - power, cooling, electrical, construction, data/optical connectivity (NOK Nokia), manufacturing, power connectors, REITs, materials, backup, water, AI compute providers (NBIS Nebius, OSS One… Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon Outflow -9.8% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Networking Silicon — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-networking-silicon), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules Outflow -10.3% 30D TheBuildout · Optical Transceivers & Modules — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/optical-transceivers-modules), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Semiconductor Fab Construction Engineering Outflow -10.3% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Fab Construction & Engineering — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-fab-construction-engineering), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist.… Thebuildout Racks Chassis Mechanical Infrastructure Outflow -10.3% 30D TheBuildout · Racks, Chassis & Mechanical Infrastructure — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/racks-chassis-mechanical-infrastructure), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our… Alt Managers Outflow -10.6% 30D Publicly-traded alternative asset managers — fee-related-earnings cohort plus the Brookfield parent. Brookfield axis: BAM (Brookfield Asset Management — fee-light spinout, ~$540B FBE AUM, FRE-growth thesis), BN… Thebuildout Industrial Robotics Automation Outflow -10.6% 30D TheBuildout · Industrial Robotics & Automation — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/industrial-robotics-automation), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Data Center Thermal Management Outflow -10.8% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Thermal Management (Air & Liquid) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-thermal-management), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Airlines Outflow -11.1% 30D Airlines — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → margin expansion, leisure travel recovery. JETS ETF for broad exposure. (Removed 2026-05-04: HA absorbed by ALK via 2024 acquisition; SAVE bankrupt + delisted… Thebuildout Connector High Speed Interconnect Outflow -11.3% 30D TheBuildout · Connector & High-Speed Interconnect Suppliers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/connector-high-speed-interconnect), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Thebuildout China AI Semiconductor Stack Outflow -11.6% 30D TheBuildout · China AI Semiconductor Stack — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/china-ai-semiconductor-stack), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines… Robotics Outflow -11.7% 30D Robotics & physical-AI across the stack — seeded 2026-06-27 from @mkfilko + @MMatters22596 robotics baskets (live rotation theme). Layers: brain/compute (NVDA Isaac/GR00T, BB/QNX OS), vision (CGNX, AMBA), lidar/sensors… Nuclear Fuel Cycle Outflow -11.7% 30D Nuclear fuel cycle — AI-DRIVEN nuclear-demand thesis (sibling to ai-power-bottleneck, NOT a rotation away from AI; the mechanism is COMPLEMENTARY — hyperscaler data-center power demand pulls through the entire nuclear… Electricity Outflow -12.0% 30D The electricity layer of the AI buildout, consolidated: generation, grid and transmission, transformers, distribution and busways, turbines, nuclear, fuel cells, UPS and storage, power semiconductors and PSUs. Created… Thebuildout Trailing Edge Logic Specialty Foundries Outflow -12.1% 30D TheBuildout · Trailing-Edge Logic & Specialty Foundries — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/trailing-edge-logic-specialty-foundries), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our… Thebuildout Advanced Packaging 2d3d Leaders Outflow -12.3% 30D TheBuildout · Advanced Packaging (2.5D/3D) Leaders — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/advanced-packaging-2d3d-leaders), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Natural Gas Turbines Dc Power Outflow -12.7% 30D TheBuildout · Natural Gas Turbines & DC Power Generation — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/natural-gas-turbines-dc-power), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Ups Energy Storage Data Centers Outflow -12.9% 30D TheBuildout · UPS & Energy Storage for Data Centers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ups-energy-storage-data-centers), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Supply Chain Traces Outflow -12.9% 30D Supply chain trace discoveries — tickers found by our autonomous research agents across all traces. Tungsten (KMT Kennametal, CRS Carpenter; Almonty Layer-1 pure-play pending correct-ticker re-add — was wrongly tracked… Spacex S1 Supply Chain Outflow -13.2% 30D SpaceX S-1 picks-and-shovels + space peers screen (2026-06-04): AI-compute/power/optical supply chain, space industrial base, disrupted incumbents, holders. Tied to spacex-s1 investigations. AI Power Outflow -13.3% 30D AI Power Bottleneck — Leopold Aschenbrenner's watts-per-rack thesis. Fuel cells (BE), distributed power (PSIX, BW), nat gas (EQT, LBRT, PUMP), BTC miners pivoting to AI compute (CORZ, IREN, APLD, CIFR, HUT, BTDR, CLSK,… Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors Outflow -13.4% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Power Semiconductors — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-power-semiconductors), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Travel Leisure Outflow -13.5% 30D Travel & leisure — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → travel cost reduction, pent-up demand, cruise recovery. Thebuildout Semiconductor Bonding Interconnect Materials Outflow -13.5% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Bonding & Interconnect Materials — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-bonding-interconnect-materials), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged… Grid Buildout Outflow -13.5% 30D Transformer, switchgear, electrical-equipment, and engineering contractors exposed to transmission and data-center grid buildout. Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling Outflow -13.5% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Fiber & High-Speed Cabling — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-fiber-high-speed-cabling), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Defense Contractors Outflow -13.5% 30D Defense contractors - ETFs (ITA aerospace/defense, PPA aerospace/defense). Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon), Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Boeing. Thebuildout Fuel Cells Alternative Dc Power Outflow -13.6% 30D TheBuildout · Fuel Cells & Alternative DC Power — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/fuel-cells-alternative-dc-power), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Co Packaged Optics CPO Outflow -13.8% 30D TheBuildout · Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/co-packaged-optics-cpo), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect Outflow -14.0% 30D TheBuildout · Transformers & Grid Interconnect Hardware — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/transformers-grid-interconnect), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Semiconductor Ip Licensors Outflow -14.1% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor IP Licensors — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-ip-licensors), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of… Thebuildout Package Substrate Interposer Ecosystem Outflow -14.1% 30D TheBuildout · Package Substrate & Interposer Ecosystem — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/package-substrate-interposer-ecosystem), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Thebuildout Eda Software Outflow -14.1% 30D TheBuildout · EDA Software — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/eda-software), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible head: 6… Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing Outflow -14.1% 30D TheBuildout · EMS / Contract Electronics Manufacturing — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ems-contract-electronics-manufacturing), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Neoclouds Outflow -14.2% 30D GPU cloud and AI infrastructure providers, including power-rich data-center and former crypto-mining operators. Thebuildout Power Distribution Pdus Busways Outflow -14.4% 30D TheBuildout · Power Distribution (PDUs, Busways, Switchgear) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/power-distribution-pdus-busways), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging Outflow -14.9% 30D TheBuildout · Glass Core & Panel-Level Packaging — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/glass-core-panel-level-packaging), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Space Outflow -15.5% 30D Space plays — expanded 2026-05-27 for SpaceX IPO catalyst (debut 2026-06-12 NASDAQ:SPCX, $1.75T-$2T target, $40-80B raise, largest IPO ever). Originally only RKLB / ARKX / GSAT (3 names). Launch / rockets: RKLB… Thebuildout Specialty Gases Process Chemicals Outflow -15.5% 30D TheBuildout · Specialty Gases & Process Chemicals — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/specialty-gases-process-chemicals), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Nearline Storage Outflow -16.1% 30D High-capacity storage makers and upstream media and component suppliers serving hyperscale and AI data centers. Thebuildout Metrology Inspection Outflow -16.4% 30D TheBuildout · Metrology & Inspection — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/metrology-inspection), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Thebuildout HBM Memory Outflow -16.4% 30D TheBuildout · HBM Memory — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/hbm-memory), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible head: 18 of… Thebuildout Lithography Equipment Outflow -16.7% 30D TheBuildout · Lithography Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/lithography-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Thebuildout Cmp Slurries Consumables Outflow -17.0% 30D TheBuildout · CMP Slurries & Consumables — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/cmp-slurries-consumables), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Thebuildout Deposition Equipment Outflow -17.0% 30D TheBuildout · Deposition Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/deposition-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier… Humanoid Robotics Outflow -17.3% 30D Humanoid robotics components — sensors and motion control for the 2027-2028 humanoid wave. Component layer: VPG (Vishay Precision Group — strain gauges and force/torque sensors), MOG-A (Moog — precision motion… Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment Outflow -17.4% 30D TheBuildout · Advanced Packaging Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/advanced-packaging-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines… Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves Outflow -18.8% 30D TheBuildout · Power Supplies (PSU) & Power Shelves — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/power-supplies-psu-power-shelves), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Quantum Computing Outflow -18.9% 30D Quantum-compute pure-plays. Gate/trapped-ion (IONQ), superconducting (RGTI/Rigetti), annealing (QBTS/D-Wave), photonic (QUBT/Quantum Computing Inc, XNDU/Xanadu — de-SPAC 2026-03), cold-atom/Rydberg (INFQ/Infleqtion —… Thebuildout Etch Equipment Outflow -19.1% 30D TheBuildout · Etch Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/etch-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible… WFE Test Metrology Outflow -20.1% 30D Semiconductor wafer-fab equipment, process control, metrology, test, packaging, and materials suppliers. Drone Defense Outflow -20.4% 30D Drone & counter-drone defense — offense (AVAV AeroVironment, AVEX AEVEX Corp — newly-public April 2026 full-stack drone + AI ISR, KTOS Kratos, RCAT Red Cat — small-cap manufacturer), counter-drone (EOPSF Electro Optic… Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment Outflow -21.4% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Test & Burn-In Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-test-burn-in-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Optical Supply Chain Outflow -22.4% 30D Optical/photonics supply chain — AI optical supercycle plays. Laser sources (LITE, COHR), optical networking (CIEN), silicon photonics (ALAB, SMTC), foundry (TSEM), next-gen modulators (LWLG, SIVEF/Sivers Semiconductors… 10. Key Signals
- Regime: breadth fragile → deteriorating; volatility compressed → neutral; gold/dollar neutral → gold-breakdown-dollar-firm. All three on 2026-09-14.
- Volatility gate: CALM → NORMAL at VIX 17.1. Not a spike; the fire-sale threshold is a 30% one-day jump and nothing near that happened.
- Call flags, seven recorded today: invalidations on COHR, GEV, GLW, IREN and CRDO; an entry trigger met on META at $665.60 with RSI 70.8; a price-only trigger on DHR that did not satisfy its written condition.
- Convergence: AXON, KRE and NTLA rose to three bells — below the four-bell line that would make them refresh candidates.
- Energy: USO has now closed above $130 for ten consecutive sessions, which satisfies the price leg of a standing energy trigger. The escalation leg it is paired with is not met.
- No call is lit at four or five conditions. Sixteen sit at three.
Recorded signals · 51
11. The Wild & Whacky
Elmet up 32.8% on 41.5× normal volume — forty-one times — on a $450 million Department of War tungsten award. Its own lane closed -5.2% with 2 of 12 up. Nobody else got the memo because the memo was addressed to one company.
Corning picked today to price $2 billion of stock, into a session where its sector went 0-for-28. The word for that is either courage or a calendar nobody re-checked.
Gold fell on a war headline. Fresh attacks on Hormuz shipping and Saudi infrastructure, and GLD closed -1.5% with silver -2.2%. When the safe haven sells on the safe-haven news, the bond market is running the room.
Cybersecurity's worst performer was up 1.0%. BB, the laggard, still closed green while eleven of its lane-mates went up between 6% and 16.5%.
A 3× semiconductor fund fell 17% and the index fell half a percent. SOXL -17.0% against SPY -0.45%. Leverage does what leverage does, and it is on the desk's permanent do-not-track list for exactly this reason.
12. Paper Trade Report Card
Across 33 strategies the paper books hold 327 positions: $1,126,208 deployed, $1,337,783 of market value, +$211,575 (+18.79%) open. Closed history is 162 trades at a 43.21% win rate and +$854.64 realised — a reminder that the open gain is one long AI-and-quality trend, not trading skill.
Today's sessions: the mechanical autotrade cycle evaluated all five of its instruments and took no action — verification passed with five of five logic-parity and zero drift. The leveraged-speculation book refused all six of its legal legs on the same rule its own log has been citing for a week, and stayed 100% cash for a fourth straight session; its exit check found nothing to manage and its breakers are clear. The book that was annoyed on Friday that a regime gate kept it out of semis spent today watching that complex fall 17%.
No conviction units converted. Every eligible row was blocked by its own invalidation, by a lane cap, or by an existing position — the reasons are recorded rather than silent.
claude trader $108,783 +8.8% 19 open · updated 2026-09-14
yolo $105,005 +5.0% 12 open · updated 2026-09-14
dip buyer $100,000 0.0% 0 open · updated n/a
momentum trader $99,047 -1.0% 2 open · updated 2026-09-14
bench signals $53,148 n/a 53 open · updated 2026-09-14
13. What I'd Tell a Friend
Nothing in the index made you poorer today, and that is exactly why it is worth paying attention. A half-percent down day that contains a 9% lane wipeout and an 11% lane melt-up is a positioning event, and positioning events usually run more than one session.
If you own the AI hardware complex — the optical names, the test and etch equipment, the interconnect suppliers — today did real damage to the lanes without breaking the biggest names' long-term trends. MU and SNDK are still 47% and 49% above their 200-day averages. The question to answer for yourself before Wednesday is whether you own them for the 2027 capex cycle or for this quarter's momentum, because the answer changes what today meant.
If you are looking to add, the honest list is short. Cybersecurity is up double digits in a session on a real catalyst, which is the worst possible moment to chase it. The steady-climber board picked up GOOG, KO and VRTX — names that got there by being boring while everything else was exciting. GDX is in its zone at $94.14 with the trend still up.
Do not do anything large before Wednesday afternoon. A Federal Reserve that hikes into a 5% ten-year reprices every long-duration name on this page, and there is no earnings news scheduled to soften it either way. The one thing to actually watch is whether SPY's 200-day, 6.5% below here, ever comes into the conversation. Until it does, this is money moving between lanes, not money leaving.
14. Active Perspectives
- Memory supercycle — intact on the tape. MU -5.3% and SNDK -5.0% today but 47.7% and 49.2% above their 200-days. Next review September 30; Micron's print the same day is the real check.
- Optical supercycle — under live attack. The lane closed 0 of 28 today with a 30-day relative strength of -20.4. Next review September 30, earlier on a material supplier allocation or cancellation; today is a price event, not yet a supply event.
- AI power delivery / AI power bottleneck — the electricity lane closed -4.0% with 4 of 55 up. Both cases carry October 6 reviews; the September 11 read found the interconnection leg still at queue position rather than delivered.
- Nearline storage — no change today.
- US energy dominance — the most live case on the board. Crude's proxy has closed above its $130 trigger level for ten straight sessions and is +23.7% on the month, and the macro pull carries fresh attacks on Hormuz shipping and Saudi infrastructure. What has not arrived is an official transit, loading, outage or restart notice, so the physical-transmission leg remains unchecked rather than negative.
- Biotech capital cycle — DHR's trigger fired on price only and failed its written condition; the case is unchanged.
- AI capex digestion — the one case today arguably fed. Coverage is arguing about whether the buildout should slow, and the capital-equipment layer fell hardest. Review is October 30; a verified spending guide-down would pull it forward, and none has been filed.
- Food security cascade — the reopen trigger flagged on September 2 still has both legs lit, barely: MOS $25.05 above its $25 line with RSI 56.4, DBA $28.96 above $28 with RSI 56.5. But the momentum that triggered it has decayed hard — those RSIs were 68.1 and 69.5 at the flag — and FMC, the nomination's strongest mover then, is -15.3% on the week and 18.5% below its 200-day. Twelve sessions in, the word "sustained" is being tested and is not obviously passing.
AI power: rack and chip conversion active high latest 2026-09-06
AI optics: bandwidth becomes supplier earnings active high latest 2026-09-06
AI memory: pricing discipline through the supply ramp active high latest 2026-09-06
Nearline storage: density and supplier discipline active high latest 2026-09-06
Nuclear fuel: contracting reaches enrichment and supply monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Biotech funding: conversion into tools and CRO orders monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Energy disruption: physical flows and exporter economics monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Drone defense: contracts become profitable deliveries monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
AI spending: the supplier earnings reversal case monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
AI power: generation and grid equipment active high latest 2026-09-06
15. Scan Summary
Every watchlist refreshed on the 2026-09-14 settled close through the primary provider; 1,108 symbols in the universe. The news pass covered 101 symbols plus the macro lane and the social scope. Four boards were saved for the date — monster, monster-discover, washout and Lazarus — and the screener suite ran all five commands.
What the day surfaced: six event clusters, led by the 10-year touching 5% ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting (six independent sources) and a BREAKING line on the AI-slowdown argument. One large macro move outside equities (silver, -2.2%). Twelve movers listed with their cohorts attached and twenty-two more past the display cap; of the twelve listed, three were classed blindside — Elmet, Innio and Nokia — and two of those three still have no explanation on disk.
One coverage gap worth stating plainly: HQ fell 32% on heavy volume and the search returned nothing that accounts for it. The pull ran and was fresh. That is a gap in what is knowable tonight, not evidence that nothing happened.
Recorded coverage: 2 required scans complete, 29 without a dated artifact. The complete receipt is under All Scans below.
Today's Actions · 43 CRWV $82.98 · CEG $264.57 · SPGI $418.54
exit · 3
CRWV $82.98 breaking down — -7.1% this week, 45.8% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 31.1% over the past year and 9.7% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
CEG $264.57 breaking down — -11.5% this week, 35.9% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 19.9% over the past year and 10.3% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
SPGI $418.54 breaking down — -5.6% this week, 24.2% off its 52-week high despite a +1.9% bounce today; down 23.1% over the past year and 6.4% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
entry · 40
CRWD breaking out 1.7% off its 52-week high after a +10.5% week — a +36% three-month run, not a one-week pop
NET breaking out 1.3% off its 52-week high after a +18.4% week — a +40% three-month run, not a one-week pop trend-hold
OKTA breaking out 1.7% off its 52-week high after a +9.3% week — a +58% three-month run, not a one-week pop
TSLA coming into play — 28.0% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+1.4% this week)
NFLXE coming into play — 35.7% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+2.6% this week)
IBM coming into play — 25.1% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+6.0% this week)
AXON watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · tape broken
COHR $299.22 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $299.22 · tape broken
CRDO $255.50 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $255.50 · tape broken trend-hold
KRE watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
NTLA $18.50 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $18.50 · tape broken trend-hold
SPY watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout trend-hold
UUP watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
ABCL $8.45 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $8.45 trend-hold
BE watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime)
IREN $45.66 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $45.66
META $665 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $665 trend-hold
MSFT $442 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $442 trend-hold
SHOP tape broken
AAPL no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +4.1% this week, 3.3% off its 52-week high
AMZN no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, -1.9% this week, 11.7% off its 52-week high
ARGX no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, -4.1% this week, 7.7% off its 52-week high
ARM no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, -5.2% this week, 47.2% off its 52-week high trend-hold
ARQQ no setup today — under both its 50- and 200-day, -23.8% this week, 73.7% off its 52-week high
GOOGL no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +3.2% this week, 14.5% off its 52-week high
HQ no setup today — no trend read yet (under a year of price history), -33.5% this week, 77.0% off its 52-week high
ILMN no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, -4.6% this week, 10.2% off its 52-week high
INFQ no setup today — above its 50-day but not its 200-day, -1.9% this week, 54.2% off its 52-week high
IONQ no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -5.1% this week, 55.7% off its 52-week high
LAES no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -4.1% this week, 73.4% off its 52-week high
MU no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, -9.1% this week, 26.4% off its 52-week high
NTR no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, -3.1% this week, 9.8% off its 52-week high
NVDA no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, -8.4% this week, 10.8% off its 52-week high
OUST no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, -8.2% this week, 47.5% off its 52-week high
PL no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -10.6% this week, 68.7% off its 52-week high trend-hold
QBTS no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, +1.5% this week, 64.0% off its 52-week high
QUBT no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -0.5% this week, 69.2% off its 52-week high
RGTI no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, +0.5% this week, 73.7% off its 52-week high
SNDK no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, -10.8% this week, 34.1% off its 52-week high
XNDU no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -17.5% this week, 81.1% off its 52-week high
All Scans 2 complete · 29 without a dated artifact
market pulse missing
ai scan missing
ai infrastructure missing
biotech scan missing
nvda ecosystem missing
defensive scan missing
healthcare scan missing
consumer scan missing
retail scan missing
cloud etfs missing
cybersec missing
ev clean energy missing
etf universe missing
insider scan missing
bargain bin missing
tech insider buys missing
crypto scan missing
macro commodities missing
defense contractors missing
geopolitical risk missing
optical supply chain missing
drone defense missing
supply chain traces missing
wfe test metrology missing
food security missing
cultural thesis missing
airlines missing
chemicals missing
travel leisure missing
The desk's frozen record The machine-built sections as this issue recorded them — the tape, calls, and wires that were true on this date (desk plumbing and file-path lines removed for reading).
1 machine source could not be read when this issue was built — its record shows a partially degraded day.
Regime State
- State counts: collapse: 188, pullback: 367, uptrend: 252, downtrend: 121.
- Latest transition batch: 2026-09-14 vs 2026-09-11; 29 confirmed state-to-state flips, 1 entries, 0 exits.
- Confirmed flips: $AEP basing -> pullback; $AMR parabolic -> pullback; $AXGN uptrend -> pullback; $BHP uptrend -> pullback; $BKR basing -> pullback; $BTDR pullback -> downtrend.
- Notable entries: $BBY -> uptrend.
Rates & Macro
Source: FRED last-good series under macro; values are aligned to the desk date without interpolation.
| Series | Observation | Tape alignment | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
2Y Treasury (DGS2) |
4.63% as of 2026-09-11 | carried | fresh |
10Y Treasury (DGS10) |
4.96% as of 2026-09-11 | carried | fresh |
10Y minus 2Y curve (T10Y2Y) |
0.32% as of 2026-09-14 | direct | fresh |
Effective fed funds (DFF) |
3.63% as of 2026-09-11 | carried | fresh |
10Y real yield (DFII10) |
2.60% as of 2026-09-11 | carried | fresh |
CPI (all urban consumers) (CPIAUCSL) |
334.1 as of 2026-08-01 | carried | fresh |
US high-yield option-adjusted spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) |
2.65% as of 2026-09-11 | carried | fresh |
Broad US dollar index (DTWEXBGS) |
118.2 as of 2026-09-11 | carried | fresh |
VIX close (VIXCLS) |
15.84 as of 2026-09-11 | carried | fresh |
Chicago Fed financial conditions (NFCI) |
-0.56 as of 2026-09-04 | carried | fresh |
Cross-sector Rotation
- Money rotating INTO Crypto (RS +26.9, 45% strong-up, today +2.1%), Food Security (RS +9.9, 70% strong-up, today -0.8%), Trace Iran War Second And Third Order Effects (RS +9.6, 71% strong-up, today +1.9%) — OUT OF Optical Supply Chain (RS -20.4), Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment (RS -19.4), Drone Defense (RS -18.4). Benchmark SPY -2.0% 30d. ⚡ EMERGING (turning up before the trailing board): Web Cloud (accel +5.4, 67% up). Fading leaders: Crypto (accel -7.0, today +2.1%), Food Security (accel -3.6, today -0.8%), Healthcare (accel -3.4, today +1.2%), IBB (accel -4.3, today +1.1%), Healthcare (accel -3.0, today +1.1%), Biotech (accel -3.6, today +1.1%).
- ⚡ Front-run (emerging, turning up before the trailing board): Web Cloud (accel +5.4, 67% up).
- ↗ Turning laggards: none with a confirmed 7d RS reversal this run.
Lane Tape
- Reference: SPY -0.5%, RSP +0.1%. 122 lanes with 3+ settled names; 10 closed at least 90% up, 46 at least 90% down.
| Lane | Med 1D | Up | 30d phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cybersec | +10.7% | 11/11 | leading (RS +4.8) |
| Cloud SAAS | +5.5% | 16/16 | leading (RS +3.1) |
| Cloud ETFS | +5.0% | 4/4 | leading (RS +2.5) |
| Lazarus | +3.9% | 10/10 | neutral (RS -1.1) |
| Government Compute | +3.6% | 6/6 | leading (RS +2.9) |
| Faang | +2.7% | 4/5 | leading (RS +4.8) |
| Web Cloud | +2.7% | 7/9 | emerging (RS -5.5) |
| Crypto | +2.2% | 16/20 | fading (RS +26.9) |
| … 106 more | |||
| Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules | -7.7% | 0/23 | lagging (RS -8.3) |
| Thebuildout Connector High Speed Interconnect | -7.9% | 0/9 | lagging (RS -9.3) |
| Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling | -7.9% | 0/15 | lagging (RS -11.5) |
| Thebuildout Etch Equipment | -8.3% | 0/6 | lagging (RS -17.1) |
| WFE Test Metrology | -8.4% | 0/13 | lagging (RS -18.1) |
| Optical Supply Chain | -8.8% | 0/28 | lagging (RS -20.4) |
| Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking | -9.2% | 0/3 | lagging (RS -5.0) |
| Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment | -10.4% | 0/3 | neutral (RS -19.4) |
What moved together
- Crypto +2.2% median, 16 of 20 up; the 30-day rank still reads fading — a one-day re-rate the month-scale rank cannot see.
- Cybersec +10.7% median, 11 of 11 up, 11.1 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Optical Supply Chain -8.8% median, 0 of 28 up, 8.3 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- WFE Test Metrology -8.4% median, 0 of 13 up, 8.0 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Thebuildout Etch Equipment -8.3% median, 0 of 6 up, 7.8 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Thebuildout Connector High Speed Interconnect -7.9% median, 0 of 9 up, 7.4 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling -7.9% median, 0 of 15 up, 7.4 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Thebuildout Co Packaged Optics CPO -7.7% median, 1 of 34 up, 7.3 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules -7.7% median, 0 of 23 up, 7.3 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
- Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing -7.7% median, 0 of 7 up, 7.2 points below the S&P 500 — the lane sold as one.
Movers and their cohorts
- $ELMT +32.8% on 41.5× volume — attribution: blindside; Supply Chain Traces -5.2% (2/12)
- $SIMO -16.8% — attribution: watched; Memory -6.6% (0/10)
- $ZS +16.5% on 2.5× volume — attribution: watched; Lazarus +3.9% (10/10), Cybersec +10.7% (11/11), Cloud SAAS +5.5% (16/16), Tech Insider Buys +2.1% (26/42); 2 more lanes
- $S +14.5% — attribution: expected; Cybersec +10.7% (11/11)
- $INIO -14.3% — attribution: blindside; Thebuildout Fuel Cells Alternative Dc Power -4.2% (0/10), Thebuildout Natural Gas Turbines Dc Power -4.4% (0/12), Electricity -4.0% (4/55)
- $CRWD +13.8% on 2.4× volume — attribution: expected; Cybersec +10.7% (11/11), Cloud SAAS +5.5% (16/16), Tech Insider Buys +2.1% (26/42), AI lane -0.8% (31/67)
- $GLW -13.7% on 2.0× volume — attribution: contrary; Thebuildout Semiconductor Bonding Interconnect Materials -7.3% (0/5), Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging -6.4% (0/8), Thebuildout Connector High Speed Interconnect -7.9% (0/9), Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling -7.9% (0/15); 5 more lanes
- $NOK -13.3% — attribution: blindside; Thebuildout Data Center Switch Nic Vendors -5.9% (0/13), Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules -7.7% (0/23), AI Infrastructure -5.1% (3/54)
- $TER -13.3% on 2.1× volume — attribution: contrary; Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment -10.4% (0/3), Thebuildout Industrial Robotics Automation -2.6% (0/8), Supply Chain Traces -5.2% (2/12), WFE Test Metrology -8.4% (0/13); 5 more lanes
- $MXL -13.1% — attribution: contrary; Semis -5.6% (0/18), Optical Supply Chain -8.8% (0/28)
- $PANW +13.1% — attribution: watched; Cybersec +10.7% (11/11), Tech Insider Buys +2.1% (26/42), AI lane -0.8% (31/67)
- $MTSI -12.8% — attribution: unavailable; Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling -7.9% (0/15), Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon -7.3% (0/16), Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules -7.7% (0/23), Optical Supply Chain -8.8% (0/28); 1 more lane
22 more movers past the cap.
Mover bar: a 1D move of 10%+, or 3× volume with a 1D move of 5%+; price $1+, $50M+ dollar volume; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income wrappers excluded.
Volatility Gate
- VIX 17.1 (NORMAL) · 1d +8%. • VIX NORMAL — 17.1 (16-20). Baseline vol; no gate either way.
- No fire-sale trigger (rule: >=30% one-day spike is the trigger; the level alone is context).
- Credit tape (7d): HYG -0.8% · LQD -1.1% · IEF -1.4% — the flush-vs-break discriminator: orderly credit means the selling is positioning, not a credit event.
Crowd Odds
- Bitcoin reaches $80,000 by December 31, 2026 (crypto-geopolitics reopen trigger level) — RESOLVED YES (Polymarket, settled 2026-08-24)
- Fed hikes 25bps at the September 2026 meeting (Polymarket cross-check) — 88% (Polymarket, as of 09-15; wk +34pt)
- Fed holds (0bps) at the September 16, 2026 meeting — 12% (Kalshi, as of 09-15; wk -33pt)
- Government shutdown by October 1, 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — 1% (Polymarket, as of 09-15; wk +0pt)
- US government shut down on Oct 1, 2026 — 1% (Kalshi, as of 09-15; wk +0pt)
- NVIDIA is the largest company by market cap on December 31, 2026 — 69% (Polymarket, as of 09-15; wk -10pt)
- US recession by end of 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — 10% (Polymarket, as of 09-15; wk +2pt)
- NBER-dated US recession in 2026 — 4% (Kalshi, as of 09-15; wk -1pt)
Upcoming Prints (next 72h)
Tripwires
- Tripwires: no new trips since the 2026-09-14 duty pass.
Desk Calls
| Ticker | Stance | Entry | Review-by | 30d vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SNDK | watch | A new flag and held base, then a close strictly above $1740.00. Friday’s equal close… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $AMAT | watch | WAIT: close above $489.46 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders,… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $CEG | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $299.73 (Sept 4 high; canonical pivot 296.62 already crossed);… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $COHR | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $299.22 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus supplier allocation… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $GEV | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $971.98 (20-day average); Reclaim after initial pop and hold a… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $GLW | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $154.59 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $IREN | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $45.66 (200-day average); Long-average reclaim and held flag;… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $LRCX | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $312.76 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, memory… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $MRVL | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $224.58 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current design-win… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $MU | buy (in zone) | BUY while the cleared 989.96 flag ceiling holds; losing it returns the entry to WAIT… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $NBIS | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $226.58 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); New post-rebound… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $NVDA | watch | WAIT: close above $236.54 (established pivot; preserved predecessor); Settled… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $SNDK | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $1740.00 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); Strict close… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $SOXX | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $523.42 (20-day average; first reclaim reference, not 575.88… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $TSM | watch | WAIT: close above $461.47 (established pivot); Settled volume-supported breakout… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $VRT | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $280.99 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $WDC | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $468.19 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $BE | watch | holds the 200-day average at $188.51 | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $GDX | watch | the confirming leg, not the broken one — 11.6% above its 200-day on a +62.48% year;… | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $GLD | watch | a close back above the 200-day ($414.79) that holds a full week; below that the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | pending |
| $MKSI | watch | reclaims its 200-day average at $259.70 with RSI back above 45 | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $SIL | watch | same shape as GDX — 11.5% above its 200-day on a +75.94% year | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $SLV | pass | n/a — 7.7% below its own 200-day and widening; a reclaim of that average is the… | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $AGIO | watch | after the current reset prints a higher low, reclaims the 50-day ($35.56) with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | pending |
| $DHR | watch (in zone) | after a pullback to the $210.39 volume shelf, holds and turns back above it with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | pending |
| $EWY | pass | the one-factor market: 16 of the last 45 sessions moved more than 4% — the template… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $GDX | watch | the policy-blink bid is real but entries are pullbacks, not +8% days — a hold of the… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $KRE | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the bank-stress tell the bond-fear feed keeps asserting; regionals are… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $BNO | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the oil leg of the monitor. BNO ~$57 is Brent ~$100 at the current… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $HYG | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the tell. Credit at -0.31% from its high while the long bond makes… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $PSX | pass | same as VLO — RSI 80 at the high; nothing here to chase | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $SPY | watch | no new entry — the trend is intact 0.86% off its high; hold it while the 200-day… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $TLT | watch (in zone) | the historical equity low arrives AT the yield peak, so the long bond is only worth… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $VLO | pass | the diesel-crack trade is made — RSI 74.8, 0.96% off its high, +35.46% in three… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $AXON | watch | a pullback that holds the $576.14 shelf or the 20-day ($556.43) | 2026-09-30 | -17.4% |
| $ITA | pass | no entry 2.69% off a 52-week high with RSI 64.4; the wrapper prices the primes, not… | 2026-09-30 | -12.2% |
| $KTOS | pass | no entry while price sits 12.3% below the 200-day ($73.65) with a death cross intact… | 2026-09-30 | -23.3% |
| $RCAT | pass | no entry after a +20.85% week that stalled at the anchored VWAP from the low… | 2026-09-30 | -23.8% |
| $UMAC | watch | a pullback that bases in $21-$24, where the value-area high ($21.09), 50-day… | 2026-10-09 | -23.3% |
| $DUST | pass | n/a — the inverse side of the same instrument problem | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | n/a |
| $GDX | watch | don't chase RSI 70.3 after a +21.31% week — a first pullback that holds the 200-day… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +9.7% |
| $GLD | watch (in zone) | a close above the 200-day ($411.70) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +0.2% |
| $NUGT | pass | n/a — leveraged miner exposure compounds the whipsaw that already makes miners the… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +16.4% |
| $SIL | watch (in zone) | above its 200-day by 2.4% but RSI 67.1 after +20.0% — same pullback discipline as… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +10.0% |
| $SIMO | watch (in zone) | price back above the 20-day ($264.25) with the 30-day loss narrowing | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +18.9% |
| $SLV | watch | the laggard of the complex at 9.8% below its 200-day ($63.76) — a reclaim of that… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +0.8% |
| $SNDK | pass | no entry while price sits 13.0% below the 20-day ($1,393.06) and 28.2% below the… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +41.3% |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | holds the 20-day ($834.21) and turns RSI back above 50 | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +13.8% |
| $UUP | watch | n/a — the dollar at RSI 39.5 is the tailwind, not the trade | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +0.4% |
| $GLD | watch (in zone) | a close above the 200-day ($411.72) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +2.9% |
| $CVX | watch | strongest RSI in the upstream cohort (67.2) — hold above the 20-day (~$185.34) to… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +2.0% |
| $GLD | watch | this is a signal to watch, not a trade — a reclaim of the 20-day (~$373.15) would be… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +7.3% |
| $HAL | avoid | not a trend-hold candidate yet — wait for a base and a reclaim of the 50-day… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +11.6% |
| $PSX | watch | RSI is a hair under overbought (69.7) — wait for a pullback to the 20-day (~$200.76)… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +13.8% |
| $USO | watch | the -5.5% weekly pullback holds above the 20-day (~$121.96) — a normal pullback… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +0.8% |
| $VLO | watch | same setup as PSX — a pullback to the 20-day (~$295.63); note this row is one… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +12.0% |
| $ELAN | watch (invalidation?) | a volume-confirmed (at least average volume) close through the 52-week high… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | -9.4% |
| $LEU | watch | first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | +8.9% |
| $CLMT | pass | RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold;… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +7.2% |
| $DK | pass | reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | -0.1% |
| $MPC | watch | the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +9.5% |
| $PANW | watch | the lane's strongest structure (-2.7% from its 52-week high, +83% on the year);… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +3.6% |
| $PL | watch (invalidation?) | untouchable while the knife falls (RSI 30, −14% on the week); interest begins when… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +6.0% |
| $PSX | watch | the diversified laggard of the three (+70% on the year, midstream/chem mix dilutes… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +11.1% |
| $S | watch | the laggard catching up (+30% in 30 days, still only +9% on the year and -8.6% from… | 2026-09-10 (overdue) | +8.0% |
| $SMH | watch (invalidation?) | the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low,… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +2.2% |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | the complex's only accumulation-shaped bar: +5.7% on 1.35× volume, closed near the… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +19.9% |
| $VLO | watch | best 12-month tape of the pure refiners (+117%); same frame — first 20-day hold… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +6.7% |
| $ARM | watch (in zone) | reclaim the pre-registered $270 line and hold it — the trigger the thesis flag broke… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | -2.4% |
| $CCJ | watch | washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the… | 2026-09-15 | +11.2% |
| $DUK | watch (invalidation?) | the one working expression — regulated rate-base growth from the same demand; a… | 2026-09-15 | -5.1% |
| $LEU | watch (in zone) | only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the… | 2026-10-01 | +14.0% |
| $VST | watch (invalidation?) | reclaim the 200-day (~$166) and hold it — first sign the derate is done | 2026-09-15 | -9.9% |
| $ABCL | watch (in zone) | the pop already happened (Feb low $2.78 to a $8.44 high) — this is the first flag;… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | +25.3% |
| $CBRS | watch (in zone) | a close above the post-flush bounce high ($221.30) confirms the higher low and… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | +13.0% |
| $META | watch (in zone) | second reclaim attempt off a higher low — buy interest is a close above ~$665,… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | -8.6% |
| $MSFT | watch (in zone) | no turn signature yet — interest begins at the 200-day reclaim (~$442) after a base;… | 2026-10-01 | +28.8% |
| $NTLA | watch (invalidation?) | golden cross, +31% month, and a fresh impulse into $18.48 on July 2 — buy interest… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | -25.0% |
| $ORCL | pass | reopen when the knife stops: the February low ($136) holds on this retest AND a +7%… | 2026-10-01 | +1.9% |
| $AXTI | pass | reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue… | 2026-10-01 | +43.6% |
| $CIFR | pass | reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack | 2026-10-01 | -25.1% |
| $CORZ | pass | reopen on a recapitalization that restores positive equity with the CoreWeave… | 2026-10-01 | -14.3% |
| $CRDO | buy (invalidation?) | elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the… | 2026-09-15 | -7.1% |
| $CRWV | pass | reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while… | 2026-10-01 | -3.0% |
| $EQT | watch (in zone) | the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two… | 2026-10-01 | -2.7% |
| $HUT | pass | reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and… | 2026-10-01 | -20.3% |
| $KGS | buy (invalidation?) | the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | -18.0% |
| $MXL | watch (in zone) | wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | -16.6% |
| $OKTA | pass | the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen… | 2026-09-15 | -2.7% |
| $TER | buy (in zone) | the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | +4.2% |
| $WDAY | watch | the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but… | 2026-09-15 | +26.6% |
| $SKHY | watch (in zone) | first clean post-debut base — not the open (debut ~2026-07-10) | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | -12.6% |
| $ZM | watch (in zone) | 2 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue; base over $92 | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | +16.0% |
| $STX | buy | own the cleanest un-hyped inflection — nearline-HDD margins compounding 23%→32% over… | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | -5.3% |
A desk call is an authored stance from a published report; entry and invalidation conditions are human-read, and the full ledger lives at /calls.
30d vs SPY is the raw name-vs-SPY move since the call — for trim/sell calls a NEGATIVE number means the call worked (the name fell after it).
From the Feeds
Curated picks from the last 7 days of the X / Reddit / Discord / web sweep — items the desk read and kept, not the raw capture firehose. Source: -pick- (type: curated-find).
𝕏@ChurchillWw — Winston — Permian output nearly quadrupled on flat completion counts because laterals went from 6,149 ft to 10,867 ft · link- With Brent back over 100 dollars this week, the rig-count read on US supply response is the wrong instrument: completions have held near 6,000 a year since 2022 while output nearly quadrupled on lateral length alone. Cited to an EIA release, so it is checkable.
𝕏@mvcinvesting — M. V. Cunha — Nebius management at Goldman: demand visibility stretches to 24+ months, older GPUs stay economically relevant $NBIS $CRWV $PLTR $MSFT $META · link- A readback of named management statements on a focus-lane name: demand visibility moved from about 18 to 24-plus months, customers are booking capacity for the first half of 2028, and the GPU-obsolescence bear case gets a direct rebuttal (a waiting list for older-generation chips). Read against the AI-capex digestion…
𝕏@RichTerry123 — Terry — Citi Global TMT readout: NAND TAM $50B to $500B by 2027, AMD CPU TAM $60B to $220B, optical testing capacity about 100x short $SNDK $MU $AMD $LITE $COHR $SKHY · link- One conference readout that touches three live theses at once: SanDisk's contract structure (half of shipments now, two-thirds by 2028, gross margin near 80% at a floor price) is the memory pricing-discipline mechanism, and the CPO testing-capacity figure reframes the optical bottleneck as a test-and-qualification pro…
𝕏@aleabitoreddit — Serenity — HBM scarcity has pushed Chinese AI accelerator prices up 20-50% in two months $MU $SKHY · link- A checkable data point that memory tightness now shows up in downstream accelerator pricing, not only in DRAM contracts: Huawei's Ascend 950DT quoted 20-50% higher and Cambricon's 690 20-30% higher than two months ago. The author discloses a long memory position, and the Reuters grey-market claim is second-hand until…
𝕏@SemiAnalysis_ — SemiAnalysis — the AI trade's third derivative is ABF substrate equipment, chemistry and film, not the substrate makers · link- The cleanest physics-down chain captured this week: package bodies grew from 58x55mm on Hopper to about 95x98mm on Rubin and build-up layers from 10-14 to 24+, so wet-process steps, lamination steps and adhesion chemistry scale with substrate complexity rather than unit count. A test of whether substrate coverage stop…
𝕏@CKCapitalxx — CV Research via CK Capital — AI power loss scales with current squared, not watts, and one vendor transforms instead of switching $VICR · link- Reframes rack power in the unit that binds, amps rather than watts, and puts a number on it: moving the same chip's power at 48 volts instead of 6 cuts the loss 64-fold. First-half bookings of 414 million dollars against 211 million shipped says the constraint is the factory, not demand. Feeds the last-six-inches leg…
Filings
- NEW: $AMZN 8-K filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-09-14)
- NEW: $LAES 6-K filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-06-30)
- NEW: $BNTX 4 filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-09-11)
- NEW: $BNTX 6-K filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-09-14)
- NEW: $ORCL 8-K filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-09-12)
- NEW: $CDNS 4 filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-09-10)
- NEW: $SNPS 4 filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-09-11)
- NEW: $ECL 4 filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-09-11)
- NEW: $PPG 4 filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-09-11)
- NEW: $PPG 4 filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-09-11)
- NEW: $PPG 4 filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-09-11)
- NEW: $PPG 4 filed 2026-09-14 (period 2026-09-11)
- …and 179 more in the source JSON.
- Last 14 days: $AMZN 8-K (2026-09-14); $LAES 6-K (2026-09-14); $BNTX 4 (2026-09-14); $BNTX 6-K (2026-09-14); $ORCL 8-K (2026-09-14); $CDNS 4 (2026-09-14); $SNPS 4 (2026-09-14); $ECL 4 (2026-09-14); ….
Breadth And Movers
Price truth: *; primary summary date 2026-09-14. Row dates: 2026-09-14: 2504.
- Summary coverage: 2504/2504 rows at 2026-09-14; 1108 unique symbols after de-duplication.
- Non-derivative unique-symbol breadth: 447 up, 640 down, 8 flat across 1095 names; median 1D change -0.4%.
- Market-pulse breadth: 21 up, 35 down, 0 flat; median 1D change -0.2% from market-pulse.
Top gainers by 1D change (filtered to price >= $1, dollar volume >= $50M, finite RSI; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income funds excluded — their print is a geared restatement of an underlying, not a company move):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $ELMT | +32.8% | +28.1% | +14.2% | 68.6 | Overbought | $21.50 | supply-chain-traces |
| $ZS | +16.5% | +12.9% | +4.4% | 61.5 | up | $191.73 | ai-scan |
| $S | +14.5% | +13.7% | -2.2% | 61.1 | strong-up | $22.61 | cybersec |
| $CRWD | +13.8% | +10.5% | +8.5% | 62.3 | strong-up | $235.38 | ai-scan |
| $PANW | +13.1% | +12.2% | -2.7% | 57.7 | strong-up | $373.94 | ai-scan |
Top laggards by 1D change (same filter):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SIMO | -16.8% | -7.6% | -11.9% | 44.8 | weak-down | $236.81 | memory |
| $INIO | -14.3% | -16.0% | -36.4% | 31.3 | Oversold | $17.45 | electricity |
| $GLW | -13.7% | -6.9% | -13.5% | 42.3 | down | $143.60 | ai-infrastructure |
| $NOK | -13.3% | -3.8% | -10.3% | 42.9 | down | $9.65 | ai-infrastructure |
| $TER | -13.3% | -7.8% | -21.4% | 40.5 | weak-down | $329.20 | ai-infrastructure |
- Excluded as derivative wrappers (7): $SOXS +17.2%, $SOXL -17.0%, $TECL -5.8%, $TQQQ -2.4%, $UPRO -1.4%, $SPXL -1.4%, $TNA -1.1% — read these in the tape scans, where leverage and the underlying travel with them.
Targets In Zone
| Target | Anchor date | Tickers | Mechanical status | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DD entry-zone — <$127 | 2026-09-11 | $DD | IN ZONE — $124.29 under $127 and still falling (trend down) | <$127 |
| ARM entry-zone — support shelf <$166.15 | 2026-08-28 | $ARM | APPROACHING — $239.01 is 43.9% above under $166.15; waiting for the pullback | <$166.15 |
| AVGO entry-zone — support shelf <$352.12 / 200-day test | 2026-08-28 | $AVGO | IN ZONE — $344.72 under $352.12 and still falling (trend down) | <$352.12 |
| AVAV profit-target — $276.00 | 2026-08-14 | $AVAV | APPROACHING — $153.40 is 44.4% below the $276 target, trend strong-down | $276.00 |
| UMAC profit-target — $45.00 | 2026-08-14 | $UMAC | APPROACHING — $22.66 is 49.6% below the $45 target, trend weak-down | $45.00 |
| UMAC stop-loss — $18.50 | 2026-08-14 | $UMAC | HOLDING — $22.66 is 22.5% above the $18.50 stop | $18.50 |
| GDX profit-target — $115.00 | 2026-08-08 | $GDX | APPROACHING — $94.14 is 18.1% below the $115 target, trend up | $115.00 |
| GDX stop-loss — $85.00 | 2026-08-08 | $GDX | HOLDING — $94.14 is 10.8% above the $85 stop | $85.00 |
Convergence Leaders
- Stocks in projection: 674;
convergentCount8;divergentCount7.