1. The Read
Hot inflation, and the stock market rallied anyway. August consumer prices rose by more than expected — CNBC's breakdown pinned it on energy costs "amid the Iran war," and Bloomberg reported traders adding to bets the Federal Reserve raises rates next week, with former New York Fed president Bill Dudley saying he would be shocked if it didn't move 25 basis points (September 11). Crowd pricing on a September hike sits at 81%, up 38 points on the week, against 21% odds of a hold. Treasuries ended what Bloomberg called a bruising week with yields near multiyear highs, and the whole bond complex now trades at capitulation-adjacent readings: the 7–10 year Treasury fund at an RSI of 26.4, investment-grade credit at 29.8, the total-bond fund at 28.7, high yield at 28.3 — every one of them death-crossed and negative on both the year and its own 200-day average. Equities went the other way. The S&P 500 fund closed +0.8% at $764.29, the Nasdaq 100 fund +0.9%, the equal-weight S&P +0.8%, and volatility fell 11.2% to 15.84, back under the complacency line. Oil retreated on the day — the oil fund -2.2%, the Brent fund -2.8% — which Bloomberg named as the relief that let stocks rise, even as crude posted sharp weekly gains and Saudi Arabia shut its East–West pipeline after Houthi attacks (CNBC and Bloomberg, September 11).
The week's real event was a financing disclosure, not a demand one. Oracle's quarter, reported after Thursday's bell and filed Friday, answered the demand question and then made the funding question worse. Contracted backlog reached $664 billion against $455 billion a year earlier, cloud infrastructure revenue grew 121% to $7.388 billion, and the company delivered 850 megawatts of capacity and more than 300,000 GPUs in three months. It also spent $28.499 billion on capital expenditure against $23.103 billion of operating cash flow — a fifth consecutive quarter of negative free cash flow — drew down the entire $20 billion at-the-market equity program in one quarter for 141 million new shares, and booked $11.363 billion of customer prepayments carrying a significant financing component. Its own long-dated paper is marked about 15% below carrying value, and that discount widened over the quarter. The stock closed $150.28, down 1.74% on 3.27× average volume, down 51.19% on the year with 67.40 points of negative excess return, 10.4% below its 200-day average of $167.64.
Thursday's question was whether the GPU-cloud independents would follow Oracle up, which would have made Thursday a rates day, or whether Oracle would rally alone, which would have meant every self-funded balance sheet was being repriced. Neither happened: the lane rose and Oracle did not. Six of the nine independents with a full year of history closed green — Hut 8 +8.83%, Cipher +5.71%, TeraWulf +3.72%, Core Scientific +3.28%, Applied Digital +2.48%, IREN +0.44% — while Nebius fell 1.56% and Oracle finished last of all ten. The suppliers were the day's clearest winners: Dell +12.0% to $567.29 and HPE +12.4% to $62.09 were the S&P 500's two best stocks, and MarketWatch attributed both to Oracle's print providing "an upbeat read for hardware suppliers," with CNBC separately reporting Dell's jump on an RBC initiation citing roughly $16.4 billion of AI servers sold in its second quarter. The physical-buildout lanes moved as blocks behind them — rack and chassis infrastructure +5.0% with 15 of 16 up, contract electronics +5.0%, data-center switch and NIC vendors +4.5% with 12 of 13, power semiconductors +4.2% with all 12 up, power supplies and shelves +4.1% with all 7, thermal management +4.0% with 17 of 18. That is what a demand proof looks like when it is priced into the suppliers and not the issuer.
Watch Wednesday: the Federal Reserve's rate decision is scheduled for September 16, and crowd pricing has moved to 81% for a 25-basis-point hike from 43% a week ago. The level that matters more than the decision is the ten-year, last observed at 4.95%; a 5.00% print, or high-yield spreads at 3.50 points on two consecutive readings against today's 2.70%, is the condition that turns a positioning flush into a credit event. The second thing to watch is Oracle's next filing rather than its next print: the equity program is exhausted, so a new authorization would say the funding gap is structural.
Extended analysis
Leaders and laggards
748 advancing 348 declining 62.3% above the 200-day Color is 7-day price direction, not a buy or sell call.
Leaders
top 7D gainersLaggards
top 7D losers2. What Changed Since the Last Brief
Screen CROSSINGS between the previous brief's close ( ) and this one — a name appears only on the session it crossed, not for as long as it stays there. Every name carries its before → after.
New oversold (5) — KRKNF RSI 32.9 → 28.6, DNLI RSI 30.4 → 28.7, BYND RSI 30.1 → 29.2, ICUI RSI 30.4 → 29.7, LQD RSI 30.1 → 29.8.
New overbought (8) — DHT RSI 69.7 → 73.1, DAC RSI 68.7 → 71.6, HPQ RSI 63.2 → 71.1, SHEL RSI 68.9 → 71.1, CRGY RSI 68.4 → 70.6, FXY RSI 68.2 → 70.4, XOP RSI 69.9 → 70.2, ETHE RSI 66.1 → 70.1.
Golden crossings (5) — APO -0.05% → 0.13%, BG -0.09% → 0.1%, PFE -0.08% → 0.19%, PRGO -0.25% → 0.25%, SIG -0.07% → 0.26%.
Death crossings (15) — 6315.T 0.2% → -0.8%, 6506.T 0.54% → -0.61%, 6954.T 0.26% → -0.31%, AMKR 0.96% → -0.23%, DUK 0.06% → -0.04%, ENR.DE 0.13% → -0.32%, GFS 0.21% → -1.05%, GNRC 0.69% → -0.2%, HGRAF 0.25% → -0.25%, LASR 0.49% → -0.54%, LPTH 0.67% → -0.59%, NTLA 0.32% → -0.71%, NVAX 0.12% → -0.12%, RRX 0.07% → -0.71%, SHLS 0.46% → -0.12%.
New monsters (20) — BAND 51.1% → 65.4%, MXL 43.6% → 53.5%, FA 32.7% → 37.6%, DNTH 34.2% → 37.4%, AVT 28.3% → 37%, AMCE 31.2% → 36.7%, TECL 28.5% → 33.1%, ARW 24.7% → 32.9%, EWTX 28.8% → 32.9%, ALNT 27.2% → 32.8%, CRGY 29.2% → 31.1%, KMX 29.6% → 31%, DHT 27.7% → 30.8%, KOPN 26.1% → 30.5%, CNC 28.8% → 30.4%, BOAT 28.1% → 30.2%, +4 more.
Newly near a 52-week high (23) — DELL -10.01% → -0.08% from high, AVT -7.03% → -0.37% from high, CNXN -6.48% → -2.89% from high, TEVA -5.26% → -3.34% from high, HPE -14.05% → -3.36% from high, AAPL -5.22% → -3.57% from high, HTFL -12.15% → -3.67% from high, IQV -5.33% → -3.69% from high, ARW -10.07% → -3.85% from high, FTEC -5.09% → -3.91% from high, VGT -5.06% → -3.91% from high, METV -5.84% → -4.16% from high, WAT -5.77% → -4.2% from high, DV -5.51% → -4.21% from high, CNC -5.71% → -4.24% from high, SWKS -7.56% → -4.28% from high, +7 more.
Newly in an entry zone (3) — BE $275.75 · $275-$300, DD $126.99 · <$127, LMT $524.19 · $490-$530.
3. Three Things
- Oracle booked $664 billion of backlog, grew cloud infrastructure revenue 121%, and fell 1.74% on 3.27× volume — while $DELL (+12.0%) and $HPE (+12.4%) were the S&P 500's two best stocks on the same print.
- August inflation ran hot and the bond complex sits at capitulation-adjacent readings — the 7–10 year Treasury fund at RSI 26.4, high yield at 28.3, all five bond funds death-crossed — yet the S&P 500 fund rose 0.8% and volatility fell 11.2% to 15.84.
- $SWKS closed at RSI 83.4 after a 19.4% week on reported progress toward the $22 billion Qorvo merger and a quarterly beat — the single most extended reading anywhere on the board.
4. The Big Picture
Friday was the day the market decided it could live with a rate hike.
Act 1 — The bond market capitulated and equities ignored it. The five bond funds on the macro dashboard all sit at or near capitulation: 7–10 year Treasuries at RSI 26.4 (down 12.5 points in a week), the total-bond fund at 28.7, high yield at 28.3, investment grade at 29.8, the 20-year at 35.2. Every one is death-crossed, negative on the year, and below its 200-day average — the most damaged corner of the entire board, and it got worse this week rather than stabilizing. Housing tracked it down: the homebuilder funds fell 4.6% each on the week, now 7.9% and 9.0% below their 200-day averages and down 17.1% and 22.8% on the year. Against that, the four broad equity benchmarks cooled on RSI but held every long-horizon field — the S&P 500 fund +16.22% on the year and 7% above its 200-day, the Nasdaq 100 fund +22.39% and 8.3% above. The oversold band on that dashboard more than doubled, from 8 names to 18, while 53 of 56 names cooled. That is a deep pullback with rotten internals, not a breakdown.
Act 2 — The buildout got paid, the landlord didn't. Oracle proved compute demand is contracted and deliverable, and the market paid the supply chain for it. Beyond Dell and HPE, the lanes that make the physical plant closed as coordinated blocks: transformers and grid interconnect +3.6% with all 8 up, power distribution +3.6% with all 10, high-speed connectors +3.6% with all 10, optical transceivers +3.6% with 22 of 24. Thirty-three of 124 lanes closed at least 90% green; only one closed 90% red. Underneath, the rotation map's accelerating cohort is entirely capital-equipment: semiconductor test and burn-in, data-center networking silicon, optical transceivers, contract electronics, high-speed cabling. The equipment book is the cleanest long-horizon read on the desk — all 14 names positive on both the trailing year and excess return, no exceptions, with $FORM (+9.0 RSI), $KLIC (+8.4) and $AMKR (+8.2) leading the advance and $MKSI crossing back above its 200-day.
Act 3 — The wreckage is in the consumer and the fuel cycle. The nuclear fuel lane fell 4.1% at the median with 3 of 19 up: $SMR -15.7% on 2.73× volume with no cause established on its receipt, $OKLO -9.2% on 2.47× volume the day it filed a prospectus supplement, $LEU -8.2% and now 27.1% below its 200-day. Retail and defensives are worse and quieter: $TJX at RSI 17.8, a third consecutive week deeper into capitulation with nothing beyond an August earnings report on its receipt; $HRL at 23.2 and -19.1% on the year; $SYK at 27.8 and -29.1%. Defense keeps selling into a live Middle East war — $LHX at RSI 24.9 in a collapse regime, 21.7% below its 200-day and negative on the year; the aerospace fund at 28.5. There is no war premium anywhere in the defense complex, and the one name with a genuine catalyst, $AVAV, gained 4.4 RSI points on a 37% backlog increase while still sitting 30.1% below its own 200-day.
5. Focus List
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 1Y | vs 200-day | Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $MSFT | $495.63 | 56.7 | -0.8% | -1.1% | +14.9% | Above the ~$442 long-average line its watch names; the year is flat, the structure is not |
| $TSLA | $365.44 | 54.5 | +3.2% | -0.9% | -8.4% | The trap: RSI improving while the one-year return just flipped negative |
| $NVDA | $218.29 | 49.8 | -5.2% | +23.2% | +10.5% | Cooled hardest of the majors; the $236.54 pivot is still unreached |
| $AAPL | $332.27 | 62.8 | +3.8% | +44.5% | +16.6% | 3.6% off its high and newly a steady climber — the strongest mega-cap chart |
| $GOOGL | $338.50 | 46.8 | 0.0% | +40.8% | +0.5% | Green on the day, but 0.5% of cushion is the whole margin; basing, not trending |
| $AMZN | $256.78 | 48.9 | -0.7% | +11.7% | +7.1% | +1.9% on the day; the weakest one-year of the platforms |
| $NET | $306.53 | 55.5 | +9.9% | +36.5% | +36.5% | Best week on this list, back to an uptrend regime — and no cause on the receipt |
| $ARM | $264.79 | 53.4 | +5.0% | +71.2% | +29.6% | +4.2% on the day, about $5 under the $270 line the thesis flag needs back |
| $NTR | $78.45 | 63.3 | -1.3% | +37.3% | +13.3% | +16.8% on the month; the only agricultural name still compounding |
| $MU | $975.26 | 53.0 | -4.1% | +547.7% | +56.8% | Second session below the $989.96 flag ceiling its buy condition requires |
| $SNDK | $1,633.35 | 53.6 | -6.1% | +1,837.5% | +58.0% | -3.5% on the day; the watch level is a close above $1,740 |
| $OUST | $35.33 | 43.5 | -3.0% | +15.0% | +16.6% | -23.4% on the month; the cushion is what's left of the run |
| $IONQ | $36.75 | 41.1 | -7.0% | -21.9% | -16.6% | Raised full-year revenue guidance to $450–460M on September 8 and kept falling |
| $RGTI | $15.27 | 44.2 | +0.5% | -8.5% | -20.1% | Mildest quantum chart; still 20% under its long average |
| $QBTS | $16.80 | 42.5 | +1.3% | +1.7% | -21.6% | Flat year, broken structure |
| $QUBT | $7.99 | 45.1 | -0.2% | -49.7% | -15.4% | Thesis rated broken; nothing here to hold |
| $INFQ | $13.12 | 53.3 | +2.1% | +27.6% | -1.3% | One of two quantum names still green on the year; a turnaround-watch holdover |
| $XNDU | $8.62 | 32.6 | -11.3% | -13.9% | -30.4% | -4.0% on the day, worst week in the group |
| $HQ | $15.22 | 45.5 | -2.2% | n/a | n/a | Too young for a long-horizon read; don't price one |
| $ARQQ | $20.05 | 46.6 | -6.2% | -33.7% | +3.3% | Barely above its long average with a third of the year gone |
| $LAES | $2.38 | 42.0 | -1.6% | -17.1% | -28.7% | Flat on the day; its print date is a provider estimate and hasn't landed |
| $PL | $16.45 | 23.5 | -9.2% | +70.1% | -39.3% | The year is up 70% and the knife is still falling — 39% below the long average |
| $ARGX | $984.39 | 50.3 | -4.7% | +28.9% | +16.3% | Unchanged on the day; a normal pullback in an intact trend |
| $ILMN | $206.45 | 49.6 | -5.4% | +107.9% | +34.4% | +2.6% on the day on 1.38× volume; the year has doubled |
| $SHOP | $128.79 | 39.3 | -11.2% | -11.2% | -1.7% | Worst week on the list, no cause on a fresh receipt, now below its 200-day |
$MU is the level to write down. At $975.26 it sits under the $989.96 flag ceiling for a second session, which keeps its buy condition at wait regardless of a 56.8% cushion above the long average. The week was -4.1% against a month that is still +7.0%; nothing about the setup is broken, the trigger simply isn't back.
$SHOP changed category this week, not just price. An 11.2% weekly decline took it from a pullback regime to a downtrend and from above its 200-day to 1.7% below, with the one-year return at -11.2% and 27.4 points of negative excess return. The news pull ran Friday evening and returned quote pages only — no article behind the move. This is now a trend under test, not a dip in a winner.
$NET is the opposite problem. It posted the list's best week at +9.9%, flipped back to an uptrend regime, and sits 36.5% above its long average — on a freshly-pulled receipt containing nothing but portal listing pages. A move this size with no attribution is a position to respect and not a thesis to add to.
$PL is the horizon lesson in miniature. Up 70.1% on the year and 39.3% below its 200-day, at RSI 23.5 after a 32.9% month. The one-year number says this was a monster; the long average says the monster is being dismantled. Interest begins at a higher low, not at a round number.
$GOOGL's cushion is now the story. It closed +1.8% on the day and is up 40.8% on the year, but only 0.5% above its 200-day after basing out of a pullback. A single bad session takes it below the line that separates its two readings.
6. Sector Scorecard
| Sector | RSI range | Trend | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy (E&P) | 66–72 | strong-up | The only leadership that got stronger: the oil fund +112.19% on the year, 41.9% above its long average, and now genuinely overbought |
| Oil services | 52–55 | up | Cooled from near-overbought while the year stays huge — the services leg lags the barrel |
| Refining | 64–83 | parabolic | $CVI at RSI 82.7, $VLO 78.6, $MPC 74.4, $PSX 74.4 — the crack-spread trade is made, not available |
| Agriculture | 48–65 | mixed | Last week's rally round-tripped; five of ten names now carry negative excess return |
| Precious metals | 47–54 | weak-up | Gold 4.1% below its 200-day, silver 11.4% below — hit by the rate move, not bid by the war |
| Biotech | 20–61 | weak-down | The fund is +63.22% on the year and 14.7% above its long average; the single names are splitting violently |
| Custom silicon | 33–56 | mixed | $MRVL cleared its trigger at $236.10; $CRDO's margin damage compounded to -39.23% on the month |
| Defense | 25–44 | collapse | A live war and no premium: $LHX at 24.9 and 21.7% below its 200-day, the aerospace fund at 28.5 |
| Broad indices | 39–51 | strong-up | All five cooled, all five held their 200-days with double-digit years — deep pullback, intact trends |
| Mega-cap tech | 47–63 | strong-up | The technology sector fund is +38.47% on the year and 16.3% above its long average, the steadiest sector on the board |
| Enterprise SaaS | 43–58 | mixed | The software fund is 8.4% above its 200-day and -9.68% on the year — the clearest label-vs-reality split anywhere |
| Consumer | 18–48 | strong-down | Seven of fifteen defensive names oversold; $TJX 17.8, $HRL 23.2; $TGT's clean trend cracked to 47.9 |
| Housing | 36 | strong-down | Both funds deepened below their 200-days and further negative on the year, tracking the bond move exactly |
| International | 32–62 | split | Japan +25.94% and emerging markets +29.74% on the year; China's large-cap fund posted the board's sharpest RSI drop and China internet is 39.62% down on the year |
| Crypto | 45–70 | strong-up | Bitcoin, ether, solana and chainlink all golden-crossed; every coin still negative on the year |
| Bonds | 26–35 | strong-down | Capitulation-adjacent across the whole complex, every name death-crossed and negative on the year |
| Volatility | 40 | strong-down | First uptick out of collapse this stretch, then Friday's 11.2% drop to 15.84 undid the argument |
ETF tape · 42 funds
The desk's curated ETF read — one fund per lane it tracks, not every fund on the watchlists — grouped by what the fund is exposed to, and where each closed on the issue date. The big number and the tile's shade are that session's move (1D); 7D and 30D are the trailing windows behind it, and RSI is the 14-day reading (above 70 is stretched, below 30 washed out). Shades near flat stay gray — a ±0.25% day is not a color.
Index & international · 9 funds
Tech, AI & cloud · 9 funds
Health & biotech · 3 funds
Commodities, energy & metals · 7 funds
Rates, credit, dollar & vol · 6 funds
Crypto · 2 funds
Income & real assets · 3 funds
7. Market Vibe
The tape is bifurcated along a single axis, and it is not AI-versus-everything. It is who pays for the buildout. Names that sell picks and shovels to the buildout rose as coordinated blocks on Friday — racks, switches, power semiconductors, thermal, transformers, connectors, optics, all with 90%+ of members green. Names that fund the buildout with their own balance sheet had a much more mixed session: the GPU-cloud independents rose, but from deep holes (Core Scientific 9.2% below its 200-day, Applied Digital 18.2% below, Cipher 8.6% below), and Oracle, the best-capitalized operator in the whole category, finished last of its own cohort after a quarter almost everyone agrees was operationally excellent.
What doesn't fit the narrative is the rate market's non-reaction in equities. Inflation ran hot, hike odds jumped 38 points in a week, Treasury yields sat near multiyear highs, and the fear gauge fell 11.2% to a complacent 15.84 while the breadth gauge flipped to short-term fragile. The rotation map still shows roughly three lanes flowing out for every one flowing in, with leadership concentrated in crypto, memory and Iran-war read-throughs rather than broadening. Cheap volatility on thinning participation is complacency without confirmation — that specific divergence went on the board Friday as a fresh regime observation, not an entry signal.
The second thing that doesn't fit: gold and silver. In a week with a shut Saudi pipeline, Houthi advances toward the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, record $6 diesel, and an active Middle East war, the gold fund fell 1.97% and sits 4.1% below its own 200-day, and silver fell 2.84% to 11.4% below. Metals are trading the real rate, not the geopolitics. So is defense, which keeps selling. If you were positioned for a war bid, the tape has now told you three weeks running that you are in the wrong instrument — the war is expressing itself in crude, diesel and shipping, not in havens or primes.
8. Scan Dashboard — Every Manifest Scan at a Glance
6a. The Dashboard Table
| Scan | Signal | Top Ticker | RSI | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Pulse | 🟡 | $USO | 71.9 | Bond complex slid into capitulation; benchmarks cooled but held their 200-days |
| AI Sector | 🟡 | $QCOM | 66.3 | Oversold band fully turned over; Constellation crossed below its long average on a $3.09B raise |
| AI Infrastructure | 🟡 | $TSM | 56.9 | NVIDIA cooled hardest; SoftBank's ADR extended into overbought with no cause on file |
| Biotech | 🔴 | $MRNA | 61.2 | Entire cohort now under RSI 62; Amgen's 31-point collapse has no established cause |
| NVIDIA Ecosystem | 🟡 | $SWKS | 83.4 | Skyworks ran to extreme overbought on Qorvo merger progress and a quarterly beat |
| Defensives | 🔴 | $VZ | 63.3 | Oversold band grew to seven of fifteen; Target's clean trend finally cracked |
| Healthcare | 🟡 | $MRNA | 61.2 | Uptrend core shrank from twelve names to nine; Stryker deepened to RSI 27.8 |
| Consumer | 🟡 | $CRSR | 64.5 | Starbucks and Domino's dropped into oversold on stale receipts |
| Retail | 🟡 | $ANF | 63.7 | Shopify's worst week is unexplained; $TJX at 17.8, a third week deeper |
| Cloud ETFs | 🟡 | $SKYY | 51.4 | All four monthly windows negative for the first time; all four still above their 200-days |
| Cybersecurity | 🟡 | $OKTA | 58.0 | Cloudflare's +9.9% week is the board's only strength and carries no receipt |
| EV & Clean Energy | 🟡 | $BE | 65.0 | Bloom extended a confirmed beat; Lucid is 49.2% below its 200-day and deepening |
| ETF Universe | 🟡 | $EWZ | 65.1 | Broad core digesting inside intact trends; small caps and gold the two real deteriorations |
| Insider Activity | 🟡 | $AMD | 58.0 | Buying list narrowed five names to three; no name under RSI 30 for a sixth cycle |
| Bargain Bin | 🟡 | $HON | 29.3 | First strict hit in the tracked window — and no cause on the receipt |
| Tech Insider Buys | 🟡 | $BE | 65.0 | Credo's margin damage compounded to -39.23% on the month; Constellation flipped weak |
| Crypto | 🟡 | $ETHE | 70.1 | Four majors golden-crossed; MicroStrategy's 200-day repair reversed |
| Macro & Commodities | 🟡 | $USO | 71.9 | Oil accelerating while gold and silver got hit — a rate shock, not a war bid |
| Defense Contractors | 🔴 | $LHX | 24.9 | L3Harris in collapse and negative on the year while the Middle East war runs |
| Geopolitical Risk | 🟡 | $USO | 71.9 | Havens sold; only $RTX still holds its 200-day among the primes |
| Optical Supply Chain | 🟢 | $SMTC | 65.4 | 28 of 36 names gained RSI; only two are broken on every window |
| Drone & Defense | 🔴 | $DPRO | 58.3 | 14 of 21 names carry negative excess return; AeroVironment's beat landed in a broken chart |
| Supply-Chain Traces | 🟡 | $KEYS | 56.8 | Semicap subset climbing; Wolfspeed and MP still broken on every horizon |
| Semiconductor Equipment | 🟢 | $FORM | 53.9 | All fourteen names positive on the year and on excess return — no exceptions |
| Food Security | 🟡 | $ADM | 64.5 | Last week's rally round-tripped almost point for point; five of ten now negative on alpha |
| Cultural Signals | 🔴 | $TSLA | 54.5 | The two names rated cleanest both collapsed; Tesla's year just flipped negative |
| Airlines | 🟡 | $UAL | 43.6 | The sector fund lost its 200-day for the first time; Delta is the only clean trend left |
| Chemicals | 🔴 | $DD | 29.2 | DuPont oversold but still the only real winner; Dow's excess return flipped negative |
| Travel & Leisure | 🔴 | $ABNB | 44.2 | Booking broke its 200-day on the sector's worst week; the cruise trio kept deteriorating |
| Momentum Board | 🟢 | $CVI | 82.7 | 443 names — biotech and refiners are the clusters this week, not AI |
| Turnaround Watch | 🟡 | $RBLX | 64 | 13 turns, down from 53 — scattered singles, not a coordinated lane |
6b. Expanded Dispatches
Semiconductor Equipment. Every one of fourteen names carries a positive trailing year and positive excess return — the only book on the desk with no exceptions, ranging from $ACLS at +15.1 points of excess return to $FORM at +259.8. Nine gained RSI this cycle, led by $FORM (+9.0 to 53.9), $KLIC (+8.4 to 48.6) and $AMKR (+8.2 to 49.5), and the below-200-day group shrank from five names to four as $MKSI crossed back above. Four names remain under their long average — $CAMT, $AMKR, $ACLS and a research-only European listing — and all four still carry strongly positive years. This is the textbook deep-pullback-in-an-intact-trend book, and the rotation map has the lane turning: 30-day relative strength still -11.8 against 7-day at +2.1.
Momentum Board. 443 names across 143 watchlists, down from 448 — rotation, not a breadth collapse. The surprise is what's leading: the parabolic tier carries nine biotech names ($MRNA, $TXG, $MMED, $IOVA, $ABCL, $CDNA, $TWST, $AMLX, $CORT) and five refiners ($DK, $DINO, $MPC, $CVI, $VLO), with AI infrastructure only the third cluster. Defense has no two-name cluster in the top three tiers at all. Twenty-seven names print RSI ≥70, concentrated almost entirely in refiners and tankers — due a pullback to the 20-day, not a fresh add. The steady-climber tier, which is where trend-hold entries come from, added thirteen names led by $AAPL and an energy-major run ($CVX, $OXY, $SHEL, $BP, $OKE).
Defense Contractors. The sector's selloff didn't reverse, it ground on. $LHX fell into a collapse regime at RSI 24.9, 21.7% below its 200-day and now -12.5% on the year, worse than -6.06% a week ago. $LEU dropped 8.18% in a single session and 12.41% on the week, taking its year to -32.1% and its gap below the long average to -27.1%. No defense-specific receipt is fresh enough to explain either: the pulls for the primes range from late April to mid-August. What lines up instead is the dated, market-wide rate shock — which is a read-through, not a company cause, and is stated as such.
Biotech. The cohort turned over completely: two cycles ago the overbought club held nine names, now the entire cut sits below RSI 62 and the oversold band went from empty to three names deep. $RARE is at 20.2 and -54.2% on the year with a receipt that predates the slide; $AMGN collapsed 31 RSI points on a 13.7% week while staying 5.0% above its 200-day with a +33.5% year — oversold RSI, intact long trend, and no cause established on a receipt pulled Friday evening. The fund tells the opposite story to the single names: +63.22% on the year and 14.7% above its long average.
Optical Supply Chain. 28 of 36 names gained RSI, and only two — $FN and a small-cap laser name — are broken on every horizon. $CIEN rejoined the recovery at +9.4 RSI points behind a fiscal third quarter its own receipt confirms: $1.67 billion of revenue up 37% year over year, adjusted earnings per share of $2.11 up 215%, and full-year revenue guidance raised to $6.42 billion on AI-driven demand — and it is still 8.1% below its 200-day, so that is a recovering print, not a resolved trend. One row is untrustworthy: a Japanese OTC mirror printed a price and zero volume byte-identical to last week's, a full week frozen; it is reported as unconfirmed, not flat.
9. The Front Page — Deep Research Teasers
7a. Perspective Dispatches
- AI power: rack and chip conversion — INTACT, bounded. Grid-equipment demand supports the delivery layer; rack, board and die beneficiaries still need their own design-win and margin evidence. Friday gave the cleanest tape confirmation yet: power semiconductors +4.2% with all 12 members up, power supplies and shelves +4.1% with all 7, and $VICR +11.2% on a receipt that carries no cause.
- AI optics: bandwidth becomes supplier earnings — INTACT, provisional. Supplier allocation and margin evidence is still required before promotion. $COHR is up 8.3% on the week against -14.1% on the month and now carries four of five convergence bells, the loudest reading on the board; $GLW is +7.8% on the week with an 8-K filed Friday.
- AI memory: pricing discipline through the supply ramp — INTACT. Producer pricing, shipments and customer agreements sustain it; inventory and capacity additions remain the decisive falsifiers. The week added a demand-side data point from outside the tape: CNBC reported September 11 that sub-$100 smartphones are becoming a rarity as AI memory prices soar. $MU is +547.71% on the year and $SNDK +1,837.5%, both in pullback regimes.
- Nearline storage: density and supplier discipline — INTACT, provisional. $STX fell 3.7% on the day to $830.17 and is -5.5% on the month while still +321.81% on the year and 37.0% above its 200-day; $WDC is -3.0% and +365.09%. Allocation and competitor-capacity evidence is still the open item.
- Nuclear fuel: contracting reaches enrichment and supply — INTACT, bounded. This was the week's worst lane: -4.1% at the median with 3 of 19 up, $LEU 27.1% below its long average, $SMR -15.7% on 2.73× volume and $OKLO -9.2% on 2.47×. Future agreements support the demand branch; fuel and enrichment economics still need their own production evidence.
- Biotech funding: conversion into tools and CRO orders — INTACT, untriggered. The shared momentum condition remains incomplete. The tools names are candidates rather than trends — $RGEN -1.4%, $CRL -3.5% and $RVTY -4.5% on the week — and funding activity still has to connect to downstream orders before promotion.
- Energy disruption: physical flows and exporter economics — INTACT, conditional. Price strength keeps the scenario live: the oil fund +112.19% on the year and 41.9% above its long average, the Brent fund +105.9%. The physical leg got dated evidence this week — Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline shut after Houthi attacks, and US diesel topping $6 a gallon (CNBC, September 11) — but company-level transmission still requires separate verification.
- Drone defense: contracts become profitable deliveries — WOUNDED, market expression. 14 of 21 names now carry negative excess return, up from about half. $AVAV's genuine beat-and-raise moved RSI 4.4 points inside a chart 30.1% below its 200-day. The demand source is plausible; the market expression is not working.
- AI spending: the supplier earnings reversal case — INTACT, risk lens. Oracle's quarter challenged the reversal case on the leg it rests on — capital expenditure of $28.499 billion, fiscal 2027 guided above fiscal 2026's $55.663 billion, more than $30 billion of new contracts — and supplied real evidence on its financing channel instead: the $20 billion equity program fully drawn, $11.363 billion of customer prepayments, a fifth negative free-cash-flow quarter, and $125.0 billion of senior notes marked at $105.7 billion. Cost of money is not a disclosed spending reduction; the case's support condition is not met.
- AI power: generation and grid equipment — INTACT. The interconnection leg is still at queue position rather than delivered output: Oracle's filing quantifies $34.150 billion of unconditional purchase and power obligations and $288 billion of not-yet-commenced data-center leases, but no contracted or energized megawatt figure anywhere. Commitment is documented; energization cannot be verified from the filings.
Every perspective quoted here carries a September 11 data stamp, and every number above is taken from the settled September 11 close rather than the perspective body.
7b. Momentum Watch
| Ticker | Price | vs 200-day | 3M | Theme | Why it's interesting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $DELL | $567.29 | +116.7% | +43.4% | AI servers | Parabolic tier, 0.1% off its high, +12.0% on the Oracle read-through |
| $HPE | $62.09 | +82.6% | +28.9% | AI servers | Newly parabolic; last week (+19.4%) is the fastest leg of the run so far |
| $MRNA | $143.97 | +152.0% | +188.5% | Biotech | The board's most extreme number and still unaccounted for by any receipt on file |
| $CVI | $49.66 | +60.7% | +61.9% | Refining | RSI 82.7 — the most overbought name in the parabolic tier, and the trade is made |
| $SWKS | $88.35 | +37.5% | +19.4% | Custom silicon | RSI 83.4 on a merger nod; newly cleared into the strong tier |
Biotech and refining are the week's two dominant clusters, not AI — nine biotech names and five refiners in the parabolic tier alone. AI infrastructure is a real but third cluster, and its members are the hardware and memory names ($DELL, $HPE, $MU, $SNDK, $MRVL, $NBIS, $ANET, $NET, $SNOW, $CIEN) rather than the model or cloud layers. Twenty-seven names print RSI ≥70 and they concentrate in refiners and tankers — that is where the pullback risk sits, not in the semis.
7c. Deep Dive Spotlight
Oracle — "Oracle Emptied Its $20 Billion Equity Program in a Single Quarter." The demand question is answered; the financing question is now the entire thesis, and Friday's filing made it harder. Backlog of $664 billion against $455 billion a year ago, infrastructure revenue +121%, 850 megawatts and 300,000-plus GPUs delivered in one quarter — set against $28.499 billion of capital expenditure on $23.103 billion of operating cash flow, the entire at-the-market authorization consumed for 141 million shares, half of record operating cash flow arriving as customer prepayment, and $288 billion of leases not yet commenced. Verdict: research-watch, conviction Low. The constructive condition is a base that reclaims the $167.64 long average on above-average volume; the destructive one is a loss of $140.68 with Thursday and Friday's volume pattern repeating.
Nebius — "Nebius Proved the Economics. NVIDIA's 9.3% Stake Makes the Demand Question Harder." Real growth, real contract economics, real operating leverage; the investment improves the funding path while making independent end-user demand the next essential proof. Verdict: research-watch, conviction Medium. It closed -1.56% at $224.55 on the day the rest of its lane rose, and is +151.77% on the year and 42.4% above its 200-day — the healthiest long structure in the category by a wide margin.
Vicor — "Vicor Finally Has Orders, Not Just Ideas. Now It Has to Convert Them." The business inflection is real; the stock setup is not clean yet. Verdict: research-watch, conviction Medium. It closed +11.2% at $197.91 on a receipt with no cause behind the move, and sits 3.2% below its 200-day with a +288.4% year — an orders story trading under its own long average.
Plus 50 more tracked-company profiles refreshed this cycle.
7d. Sector Rotation Radar
| Theme | Top mover | RSI | 30D | Direction | One-line take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI infrastructure | $MRVL | 55.5 | +8.8% | Up | Custom silicon cleared its trigger while Palantir's year fell to +1.75% |
| Biotech | $MRNA | 61.2 | +126.1% | Split | The fund compounds, the single names split violently — $AMGN -13.7% on the week |
| Cloud & SaaS | $OKTA | 58.0 | +13.0% | Cooling | $DDOG's monthly loss halved to -8.18%; $INTU the cohort's deepest break at -51.32% on the year |
| Consumer | $CROX | 36.3 | -13.9% | Down | $HIMS and $NKE remain outright breakdowns; $SBUX's 200-day cushion is down to 0.8% |
| Crypto | $RIOT | 53.3 | +5.7% | Mixed | Four majors golden-crossed; $HOOD's year flipped back negative with no cause |
| Energy | $BE | 65.0 | +16.3% | Up | Bloom extended a confirmed beat; Constellation crossed below its 200-day on a $3.09B raise |
| Mag 7 | $AAPL | 62.8 | +9.9% | Up | Apple strengthened most (+44.45% on the year); Alphabet's cushion is down to 0.5% |
| Memory | $SIMO | 58.3 | +17.9% | Up | The cycle's standout at +11.03% on the week; $MU, $STX, $WDC all cooled off their peaks |
| Retail | $WMT | 47.0 | -7.6% | Down | All four names flat-to-negative on the year with negative excess return; $TJX at 17.8 |
| Space | $IRDM | 47.4 | -4.7% | Down | The only clean structure in the group; $RKLB's thesis is flagged broken |
| Web & cloud infrastructure | $NET | 55.5 | -1.6% | Up | Best week on the focus list with no receipt behind it; $DOCN +9.32% on an unexplained week |
Monster Watch · 152 of 1107 tracked names
Sector Rotation Radar · 122 themes
Flow means 30-day relative strength versus SPY, not dollars moving: Inflow beat SPY by more than 2 points, Outflow trailed by more than 2, and Neutral stayed inside that band.
reference_jasonl_capital_kopn_check.md). Kopin Corporation, $3.97 microcap. Claimed: MicroLED… Escalation Inflow +2.7% 30D Escalation scenario watchlist — Gulf infrastructure strike / Iran retaliation plays. US LNG exporters (LNG/CQP/VG), industrial gas/helium (LIN/APD), NGL midstream (TRGP/EPD/ET/OKE), nat gas (UNG/FCG), LNG shipping… Geopolitical Inflow +2.4% 30D Geopolitical risk watchlist - defense contractors (LMT/RTX/NOC/GD/LHX/BA), oil producers (XOM/CVX/OXY/COP/SLB/HAL/DVN/EOG — XOM absorbed PXD/Pioneer via 2024 acquisition), energy ETFs (USO/UNG/XLE/OIH/XOP), safe havens… Ark Inflow +2.3% 30D ARK Invest ETFs - tracking Cathie Wood's funds Energy Inflow +2.2% 30D Energy - data center power (BE, EOSE, TAC, CEG, GEV, TLN), nuclear (CEG), solar (FSLR, ENPH), utilities (NEE). Overlaps with ai-infra for power plays. Thebuildout Data Center Switch Nic Vendors Inflow +2.1% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Switch & NIC Vendors — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-switch-nic-vendors), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Mag7 Inflow +1.9% 30D Magnificent 7 - The seven largest US tech companies Adtech Neutral +0.7% 30D Ad-tech lane: independent SSP/DSP (MGNI PUBM TTD), performance/open-web (APP CRTO TBLA), verification (DV), data (ZETA), CTV (ROKU MNTN). Added 2026-08-06 on user request; IAS excluded (Novacap take-private, delisted… Watchlist Neutral +0.7% 30D Tech Neutral +0.7% 30D Big Tech IBB Neutral +0.6% 30D Biotechnology cohort spanning large-cap therapeutics, rare disease, gene editing, diagnostics, life-science tools, and CROs. Thebuildout Space Data Centers Orbital Compute Neutral +0.5% 30D TheBuildout · Space Data Centers & Orbital Compute — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/space-data-centers-orbital-compute), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Healthcare Neutral +0.1% 30D Healthcare sector scan - Medical devices (SYK, ISRG, MDT, DXCM, ABT), pharma (PFE, MRK, LLY, GILD, AMGN, BIIB, VRTX, MRNA), healthcare services (JNJ, UNH, CVS, GRDN specialty pharmacy), lab/diagnostics (TMO), life… Macro Commodities Neutral -0.0% 30D Macro & commodities - oil (USO/BNO), natgas (UNG), gold (GLD/GDX/GDXJ/GDRZF), silver (SLV/SIL), copper (COPX), agriculture (DBA/WEAT/CORN/SOYB/AGRO), specialty chemicals (CE), uranium (URA), dollar (UUP), euro (FXE),… Thebuildout Dram Memory Neutral -0.2% 30D TheBuildout · DRAM Memory — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/dram-memory), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible head: 4… Healthcare Neutral -0.4% 30D Healthcare/Pharma/Medical Devices - Medical devices (SYK, ISRG, MDT, DXCM, ABT), pharma (PFE, MRK, LLY, GILD, AMGN, BIIB, VRTX, MRNA), healthcare services (JNJ, UNH, CVS), lab/diagnostics (TMO), life sciences software… Copper Neutral -0.7% 30D Copper miners and broad copper funds tracking electrification, grid, construction, and data-center demand. Tech Insider Buys Neutral -1.2% 30D Tech-centric insider buying monitor. Combines our tech universe tickers with Finviz insider buying discovery. Goal: find tech names where insiders are putting their own money in — the strongest conviction signal. Run… Financials Neutral -1.2% 30D Financials - Banks/Investment firms (JPM, BAC, GS, MS, BLK), brokers (SCHW, HOOD), insurance (AMP, PGR, MET, BDN), fintech (FIS, FISV), card-network (COF — absorbed Discover/DFS via 2025 acquisition), exchanges (CME),… Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking Neutral -1.3% 30D TheBuildout · High-Speed PCBs (Server/Networking Grade) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/high-speed-pcbs-server-networking), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Connector High Speed Interconnect Neutral -1.3% 30D TheBuildout · Connector & High-Speed Interconnect Suppliers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/connector-high-speed-interconnect), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Thebuildout AI Storage Data Pipeline Neutral -1.4% 30D TheBuildout · AI Storage & Data Pipeline — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ai-storage-data-pipeline), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Nearline Storage Neutral -1.5% 30D High-capacity storage makers and upstream media and component suppliers serving hyperscale and AI data centers. Thebuildout Lithium Battery Metals Neutral -1.6% 30D TheBuildout · Lithium & Battery Metals — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/lithium-battery-metals), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Biotech Capital Cycle Neutral -1.8% 30D AI-bio platforms + lab-tools/consumables + CROs — biotech capital-cycle / IPO-window-levered picks-and-shovels (perspective: biotech-capital-cycle) Consumer Staples Neutral -1.9% 30D Consumer staples - Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Colgate, Clorox, Mondelez, General Mills. Recession-proof dividend plays. BALL = Ball Corp aluminum packaging (KO/PEP customer supply-chain… Trace Glp1 Manufacturing Neutral -1.9% 30D GLP-1 / peptide manufacturing supply chain — from research-trace blind test (2026-04-12) + research-picks refresh (2026-05-05). HPLC purification (WAT 3/3 unanimous), chromatography resins (DHR/Cytiva 3/3), injectable… Biotech Neutral -2.0% 30D Biotech - pharma innovation (LLY), lab tools (TMO), mRNA (MRNA), gene editing (CRSP, NTLA, VRTX), immunotherapy (IBRX) ETF Ideas Neutral -2.1% 30D ETF Ideas - Index (QQQM, QQQ, VOO, VTI), 3x Leveraged (TQQQ, SOXL, SPXL, TECL — paper-book legal instruments only; the full exempt set lives in config/avoid-instruments.json), Inverse (SOXS — degen Rule 6, data-only),… Cloud SAAS Neutral -2.2% 30D Cloud/SaaS survivors - AI monetization plays. Profitable leaders + high-growth candidates. Cloud ETFS Neutral -2.2% 30D Cloud ETFs - contrarian SaaS thesis. AI accelerates SaaS, survivors will consolidate. Thebuildout Humanoid Robots Embodied AI Neutral -2.3% 30D TheBuildout · Humanoid Robots & Embodied AI — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/humanoid-robots-embodied-ai), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines… Bargain Bin Neutral -2.5% 30D Bargain Bin - Great companies at bad prices. 70 quality mega/large-caps filtered for oversold conditions (RSI < 30, below SMA). The scan finds which ones are currently on sale. Sectors: big tech, SaaS, healthcare,… Biotech Neutral -2.5% 30D Biotech scan - broader universe for opportunity discovery. ETFs (XBI, IBB, IBBQ), Large cap pharma (ABBV, GILD, AMGN, LLY, VRTX, REGN), GLP-1 (NVO, LLY), mRNA (BNTX, MRNA), gene editing (CRSP, BEAM, EDIT, NTLA),… AI Neutral -2.6% 30D AI scan - full universe. ETFs (SMH semis, BOTZ robotics/AI, ROBO robotics, AIQ global AI). Big Tech (NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, TSLA — TSLA for FSD/Optimus/Dojo AI exposure), Chips (AMD, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, SMCI, QCOM,… AI Infra Neutral -2.6% 30D AI Infrastructure - hyperscalers (AMZN), GPUs (NVDA), lithography (ASML), power generation (TAC — TransAlta, Canadian IPP: hydro/wind/solar/battery/gas, NOT nuclear; label corrected 2026-06-19 from 'nuclear'), foundry… Semis Neutral -2.7% 30D Semiconductors - GPUs (NVDA, AMD), foundry (TSM), networking chips (AVGO, MRVL), architecture (ARM), mobile (QCOM), equipment (ASML, AMAT), packaging (AMKR), analog/power (ON), programmable-logic (LSCC - added… Government Compute Neutral -2.7% 30D Federal IT and mission-software contractors spanning data platforms, consulting, cybersecurity, and defense intelligence. Thebuildout Custom AI Silicon Hyperscaler Asics Outflow -3.1% 30D TheBuildout · Custom AI Silicon & Hyperscaler ASICs — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/custom-ai-silicon-hyperscaler-asics), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout AI Data Center Operators Neoclouds Outflow -3.4% 30D TheBuildout · AI Data Center Operators & NeoClouds — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ai-data-center-operators-neoclouds), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Semiconductor Fab Construction Engineering Outflow -3.6% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Fab Construction & Engineering — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-fab-construction-engineering), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist.… Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging Outflow -3.8% 30D TheBuildout · Glass Core & Panel-Level Packaging — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/glass-core-panel-level-packaging), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Nuclear Energy Data Centers Outflow -3.9% 30D TheBuildout · Nuclear Energy for Data Centers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/nuclear-energy-data-centers), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Autonomous Vehicles Self Driving Outflow -3.9% 30D TheBuildout · Autonomous Vehicles & Self-Driving — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/autonomous-vehicles-self-driving), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Trace Lng Liquefaction Shipping And Regasification Outflow -4.0% 30D LNG supply-chain bottlenecks across liquefaction, shipping, and regasification. Research trace from 2026-04-12 with 2 unanimous and 2 strong-convergence findings. War Sensitivity Outflow -4.1% 30D War-sensitivity watchlist — stocks ranked by their reaction to ceasefire fake-outs (TACO trades). Tier 1 fast movers: COPX/JETS/UAE (5-9% pops). Tier 2 hidden oil-sensitive: W/RH/ATZ/AS (heavy-goods shipping costs).… Chemicals Outflow -4.2% 30D Chemicals & specialty materials — industrial cycle, energy input costs, diversified chemical producers. Thebuildout Specialty Electronic Gases Outflow -4.2% 30D TheBuildout · Specialty & Electronic Gases — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/specialty-electronic-gases), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of… Thebuildout Renewable Energy Hyperscaler Ppas Outflow -4.2% 30D TheBuildout · Renewable Energy Developers (Hyperscaler PPAs) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/renewable-energy-hyperscaler-ppas), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Thebuildout Grid Infrastructure Transmission Outflow -4.3% 30D TheBuildout · Grid Infrastructure & Transmission — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/grid-infrastructure-transmission), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… AI Infrastructure Outflow -4.4% 30D Complete AI Infrastructure - power, cooling, electrical, construction, data/optical connectivity (NOK Nokia), manufacturing, power connectors, REITs, materials, backup, water, AI compute providers (NBIS Nebius, OSS One… CPU Shortage Supply Chain Outflow -4.7% 30D AI compute shortage supply chain across CPUs, high-speed connectivity, assembly and test, and semiconductor baskets. Defensive Outflow -4.7% 30D Defensive/Value - ETFs (XLP consumer staples, XLU utilities). Telecom (T, VZ), consumer staples (WMT, MCD, COST, SBUX, TGT), food/protein (HRL, TSN, PPC), industrial (ECL), home improvement (HD, LOW). Rotation… Thebuildout China AI Semiconductor Stack Outflow -4.9% 30D TheBuildout · China AI Semiconductor Stack — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/china-ai-semiconductor-stack), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines… Thebuildout AI Sensors Perception Hardware Outflow -4.9% 30D TheBuildout · AI Sensors & Perception Hardware — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ai-sensors-perception-hardware), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Racks Chassis Mechanical Infrastructure Outflow -5.1% 30D TheBuildout · Racks, Chassis & Mechanical Infrastructure — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/racks-chassis-mechanical-infrastructure), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our… Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules Outflow -5.2% 30D TheBuildout · Optical Transceivers & Modules — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/optical-transceivers-modules), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Thebuildout Advanced Packaging 2d3d Leaders Outflow -5.7% 30D TheBuildout · Advanced Packaging (2.5D/3D) Leaders — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/advanced-packaging-2d3d-leaders), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment Outflow -5.7% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Test & Burn-In Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-test-burn-in-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… EV Clean Energy Outflow -5.9% 30D EV makers + clean energy + related ETFs. Solar tracking (NXT Nextracker), industrial energy storage/batteries (ENS EnerSys). Lithium pure-plays added 2026-05-10 from… Thebuildout Data Center Thermal Management Outflow -6.1% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Thermal Management (Air & Liquid) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-thermal-management), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Eda Software Outflow -6.1% 30D TheBuildout · EDA Software — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/eda-software), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible head: 6… Supply Chain Traces Outflow -6.2% 30D Supply chain trace discoveries — tickers found by our autonomous research agents across all traces. Tungsten (KMT Kennametal, CRS Carpenter; Almonty Layer-1 pure-play pending correct-ticker re-add — was wrongly tracked… Thebuildout Industrial Robotics Automation Outflow -6.4% 30D TheBuildout · Industrial Robotics & Automation — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/industrial-robotics-automation), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… Electricity Outflow -6.6% 30D The electricity layer of the AI buildout, consolidated: generation, grid and transmission, transformers, distribution and busways, turbines, nuclear, fuel cells, UPS and storage, power semiconductors and PSUs. Created… Livestock Disease Outflow -6.7% 30D Livestock-disease / beef supply-shock — single consolidated watchlist + alert hub for the New World Screwworm → cattle-supply thesis (first US case 2026-06-03; US herd 75-yr low; record beef). ROLES: (A) Animal-health… Cybersec Outflow -6.8% 30D Cybersecurity & Networking - firewall/SASE (FTNT, PANW — PANW absorbed CYBR via 2025 acquisition), endpoint (CRWD, S), zero-trust (ZS, OKTA), edge/CDN (NET), embedded/automotive QNX + cybersec (BB BlackBerry — surfaced… Thebuildout HBM Memory Outflow -6.9% 30D TheBuildout · HBM Memory — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/hbm-memory), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible head: 18 of… Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing Outflow -7.0% 30D TheBuildout · EMS / Contract Electronics Manufacturing — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ems-contract-electronics-manufacturing), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Peptide Economy Outflow -7.2% 30D Peptide / GLP-1 economy — principals + next-gen pipeline + consumer/distribution layer. Surfaced 2026-05-05 as a coverage gap: no focused lens existed despite GLP-1s being the largest pharma run of the past 18 months.… Thebuildout Semiconductor Ip Licensors Outflow -7.3% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor IP Licensors — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-ip-licensors), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of… Thebuildout Ups Energy Storage Data Centers Outflow -7.5% 30D TheBuildout · UPS & Energy Storage for Data Centers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/ups-energy-storage-data-centers), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Lazarus Outflow -7.6% 30D Fallen-quality WATCH list (NOT buys): former leaders down 40-80% held in quarantine until they prove a trend reversal — the 'Lazarus signal' (pop -> flag -> breakout / life pouring in). Entry only on confirmation, never… Thebuildout Trailing Edge Logic Specialty Foundries Outflow -7.6% 30D TheBuildout · Trailing-Edge Logic & Specialty Foundries — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/trailing-edge-logic-specialty-foundries), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our… Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon Outflow -7.6% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Networking Silicon — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-networking-silicon), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… AI Power Outflow -7.6% 30D AI Power Bottleneck — Leopold Aschenbrenner's watts-per-rack thesis. Fuel cells (BE), distributed power (PSIX, BW), nat gas (EQT, LBRT, PUMP), BTC miners pivoting to AI compute (CORZ, IREN, APLD, CIFR, HUT, BTDR, CLSK,… Robotics Outflow -7.7% 30D Robotics & physical-AI across the stack — seeded 2026-06-27 from @mkfilko + @MMatters22596 robotics baskets (live rotation theme). Layers: brain/compute (NVDA Isaac/GR00T, BB/QNX OS), vision (CGNX, AMBA), lidar/sensors… Thebuildout Fuel Cells Alternative Dc Power Outflow -7.7% 30D TheBuildout · Fuel Cells & Alternative DC Power — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/fuel-cells-alternative-dc-power), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect Outflow -7.7% 30D TheBuildout · Transformers & Grid Interconnect Hardware — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/transformers-grid-interconnect), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Natural Gas Turbines Dc Power Outflow -7.7% 30D TheBuildout · Natural Gas Turbines & DC Power Generation — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/natural-gas-turbines-dc-power), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Co Packaged Optics CPO Outflow -7.7% 30D TheBuildout · Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/co-packaged-optics-cpo), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Web Cloud Outflow -7.8% 30D Web/Cloud Infrastructure - Edge computing, CDN, databases, data platforms, observability Thebuildout Power Distribution Pdus Busways Outflow -8.0% 30D TheBuildout · Power Distribution (PDUs, Busways, Switchgear) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/power-distribution-pdus-busways), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Grid Buildout Outflow -8.0% 30D Transformer, switchgear, electrical-equipment, and engineering contractors exposed to transmission and data-center grid buildout. Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors Outflow -8.0% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Power Semiconductors — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-power-semiconductors), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Metrology Inspection Outflow -8.4% 30D TheBuildout · Metrology & Inspection — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/metrology-inspection), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Thebuildout Specialty Gases Process Chemicals Outflow -8.4% 30D TheBuildout · Specialty Gases & Process Chemicals — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/specialty-gases-process-chemicals), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Thebuildout Package Substrate Interposer Ecosystem Outflow -8.4% 30D TheBuildout · Package Substrate & Interposer Ecosystem — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/package-substrate-interposer-ecosystem), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Consumer Outflow -8.6% 30D Consumer brands - ETFs (XLY consumer discretionary). Athleisure (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX), food/beverage (SBUX, CMG, DPZ), health/wellness (HIMS), payments (PYPL, XYZ — Block Inc, ticker renamed from SQ in 2025),… Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling Outflow -8.7% 30D TheBuildout · Data Center Fiber & High-Speed Cabling — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/data-center-fiber-high-speed-cabling), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Spacex S1 Supply Chain Outflow -9.0% 30D SpaceX S-1 picks-and-shovels + space peers screen (2026-06-04): AI-compute/power/optical supply chain, space industrial base, disrupted incumbents, holders. Tied to spacex-s1 investigations. Retail Outflow -9.1% 30D Retail/Consumer - ETFs (XRT retail). Home Improvement (HD, LOW), E-commerce (SHOP), Athletic/Apparel (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX, ANF), Food/Beverage (SBUX, MCD, CMG, DPZ, YUM), General Retail (COST, WMT, TGT, TJX) Neoclouds Outflow -9.5% 30D GPU cloud and AI infrastructure providers, including power-rich data-center and former crypto-mining operators. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Outflow -10.2% 30D Nuclear fuel cycle — AI-DRIVEN nuclear-demand thesis (sibling to ai-power-bottleneck, NOT a rotation away from AI; the mechanism is COMPLEMENTARY — hyperscaler data-center power demand pulls through the entire nuclear… Thebuildout Semiconductor Bonding Interconnect Materials Outflow -10.2% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Bonding & Interconnect Materials — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-bonding-interconnect-materials), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged… Cultural Thesis Outflow -10.5% 30D Cultural thesis watchlist — stocks driven by consumer behavior shifts, social arbitrage signals, and cultural cascades. HIMS = telehealth / GLP-1 cultural arbitrage (replaced BRBR as the protein-economy vehicle… Alt Managers Outflow -10.5% 30D Publicly-traded alternative asset managers — fee-related-earnings cohort plus the Brookfield parent. Brookfield axis: BAM (Brookfield Asset Management — fee-light spinout, ~$540B FBE AUM, FRE-growth thesis), BN… Humanoid Robotics Outflow -10.6% 30D Humanoid robotics components — sensors and motion control for the 2027-2028 humanoid wave. Component layer: VPG (Vishay Precision Group — strain gauges and force/torque sensors), MOG-A (Moog — precision motion… China Tech Outflow -11.6% 30D Chinese internet and platform leaders with broad mainland, Hong Kong, and technology ETF exposure. Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves Outflow -11.7% 30D TheBuildout · Power Supplies (PSU) & Power Shelves — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/power-supplies-psu-power-shelves), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Defense Contractors Outflow -11.8% 30D Defense contractors - ETFs (ITA aerospace/defense, PPA aerospace/defense). Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon), Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Boeing. Thebuildout Cmp Slurries Consumables Outflow -11.9% 30D TheBuildout · CMP Slurries & Consumables — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/cmp-slurries-consumables), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Optical Supply Chain Outflow -12.3% 30D Optical/photonics supply chain — AI optical supercycle plays. Laser sources (LITE, COHR), optical networking (CIEN), silicon photonics (ALAB, SMTC), foundry (TSEM), next-gen modulators (LWLG, SIVEF/Sivers Semiconductors… Airlines Outflow -12.5% 30D Airlines — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → margin expansion, leisure travel recovery. JETS ETF for broad exposure. (Removed 2026-05-04: HA absorbed by ALK via 2024 acquisition; SAVE bankrupt + delisted… WFE Test Metrology Outflow -12.9% 30D Semiconductor wafer-fab equipment, process control, metrology, test, packaging, and materials suppliers. Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment Outflow -13.1% 30D TheBuildout · Advanced Packaging Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/advanced-packaging-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines… Thebuildout Etch Equipment Outflow -13.1% 30D TheBuildout · Etch Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/etch-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible… Thebuildout Deposition Equipment Outflow -13.3% 30D TheBuildout · Deposition Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/deposition-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier… Thebuildout Lithography Equipment Outflow -13.7% 30D TheBuildout · Lithography Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/lithography-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Travel Leisure Outflow -13.7% 30D Travel & leisure — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → travel cost reduction, pent-up demand, cruise recovery. Space Outflow -15.3% 30D Space plays — expanded 2026-05-27 for SpaceX IPO catalyst (debut 2026-06-12 NASDAQ:SPCX, $1.75T-$2T target, $40-80B raise, largest IPO ever). Originally only RKLB / ARKX / GSAT (3 names). Launch / rockets: RKLB… Quantum Computing Outflow -15.4% 30D Quantum-compute pure-plays. Gate/trapped-ion (IONQ), superconducting (RGTI/Rigetti), annealing (QBTS/D-Wave), photonic (QUBT/Quantum Computing Inc, XNDU/Xanadu — de-SPAC 2026-03), cold-atom/Rydberg (INFQ/Infleqtion —… Drone Defense Outflow -20.1% 30D Drone & counter-drone defense — offense (AVAV AeroVironment, AVEX AEVEX Corp — newly-public April 2026 full-stack drone + AI ISR, KTOS Kratos, RCAT Red Cat — small-cap manufacturer), counter-drone (EOPSF Electro Optic… 10. Key Signals
Rates and the Fed. August consumer prices rose more than expected, energy-led per CNBC's own breakdown, and the reaction firmed rather than faded: Bloomberg reported Treasuries closing a bruising week with hike bets firmed and the dollar wavering, and former New York Fed president Bill Dudley said publicly he'd be shocked by anything other than 25 basis points. Crowd pricing on a September hike stands at 81%, up 38 points on the week; odds of a hold fell 34 points to 21%. Ten-year yields were last observed at 4.95%, the two-year at 4.56%, the curve at +0.33%, high-yield spreads at 2.70%, and the real ten-year at 2.55%. The tripwire remains 5.00% on the ten-year or 3.50 points of high-yield spread on two consecutive readings.
Volatility and breadth — the week's named divergence. Volatility fell 11.2% to 15.84 and back under the complacency line in the same session the desk's breadth gauge flipped from deteriorating to short-term fragile, with the rotation map still showing roughly three lanes on net outflow for every one on inflow. Fear pricing falling alongside thinning participation is complacency without confirmation. The trigger that would resolve it constructively: volatility holding under 16 for two straight weeks while breadth returns to improving. The invalidation: volatility back above 20, or breadth reverting to deteriorating while volatility stays compressed. Single observation, no confirmations yet — it is a regime read, not an entry.
Gold and commodities. The energy complex is the only leadership that strengthened: crude's fund +9.12% on the week to +112.19% on the year and 41.9% above its long average, the Brent fund +9.4% on the week, the E&P fund at RSI 70.2 in a breakout regime. Both crude funds fell on Friday itself. The metals went the other way — gold -1.97% on the week and 4.1% below its 200-day, silver -2.84% and 11.4% below, both deepening despite a shut Saudi pipeline and Houthi advances on the Bab el-Mandeb. Copper's fund cooled 2.35% on the week while holding +67.04% on the year. Metals are trading real rates; crude is trading physical supply.
Insider buying. The buying side narrowed from five names to three — $ASAN (+$8.7M), $INTC (+$2.4M), $TSM (+$1.5M, down from +$1.8M) — with $TSLA and $CRSP dropping off entirely, which the pull cannot resolve as either a reversal or a threshold effect. No name in that 59-stock universe has closed under RSI 30 for six straight cycles, so the oversold-plus-buying combination is empty again. Selling stays broad at 29 names, led by $LLY (-$3.0B), $PLTR (-$2.4B), $AVGO (-$1.6B) and $PANW (-$1.4B) — but note that $AMD, $MRVL and $DOCN carry heavy selling against strongly positive multi-year trends, while $NFLX carries it against genuine chart damage (-35.69% on the year, 10.3% below its 200-day). That last one is the only case where selling and the chart agree.
Crypto as a risk gauge. Bitcoin at $77,319.41 golden-crossed with +21.95% behind it on the month, and ether, solana and chainlink all did the same. Every coin is still negative on the year, with bitcoin's -33.06% the shallowest deficit in the tier by a wide margin and no alt-season rotation visible on the week. The equity layer contradicted the coins: $MSTR crossed back below its 200-day (-5.1% from +2.7%) and $HOOD's one-year return flipped negative again, both with no sourced catalyst on their receipts. Risk appetite is in the coins, not in the vehicles that lever them.
Regime transitions. The newest batch carries 54 state changes against Thursday, 45 of them confirmed, with no entries and no exits. The shape is defensive: uptrend → pullback is the largest bucket at 12 names, followed by downtrend → collapse at 8 and pullback → downtrend at 6, against only 3 pullback → uptrend and 3 basing → uptrend. On research-focus names: $NET moved pullback → uptrend, $GOOGL pullback → basing, $SHOP pullback → downtrend, $IREN collapse → downtrend. Board-wide the states stand at 413 pullback, 253 uptrend, 166 collapse, 149 basing, 123 downtrend, 11 breakout, 5 parabolic.
Recorded signals · 67
11. The Wild & Whacky
- Oracle proved the demand case and finished last in its own cohort. Backlog up $209 billion year over year, infrastructure revenue up 121%, 300,000 GPUs delivered — and the stock closed -1.74% on 3.27× volume behind nine GPU-cloud independents, six of which were green. The suppliers took the whole payout.
- A momentum screen surfaced a takeout. $ATAI sits in the momentum tier at 55.8% above its 200-day and +93.4% on three months, last traded September 10 at $7.35, and did not print a Friday bar — because its own 8-K filed September 11 describes a sale to Eli Lilly at $6.75 cash plus a contingent value right. The screen is measuring deal arbitrage, not momentum.
- $TJX has now spent three consecutive weeks deepening into capitulation at RSI 17.8 — the lowest print anywhere on the desk — with a receipt pulled Friday evening that contains a quote page, a portal page, and an August 19 earnings report. Nothing explains a 17.4% monthly decline in a discount retailer during an inflation scare.
- $PHGE rose 30.3% on the week on 16.71× average volume with a receipt whose newest substantive item is from April — and it is down 97.9% on the year and 91.8% below its 200-day. A 98%-down microcap bouncing on sixteen times normal volume is a lottery ticket, not a turnaround.
- Defense sold off into a shooting war for the third straight week. $LHX at RSI 24.9 in collapse, the aerospace fund at 28.5, and only $RTX still above its 200-day among the primes — while diesel hit a record $6 a gallon and Saudi Arabia shut a pipeline.
- $SWKS at RSI 83.4 is the most extended reading on the board, and it has a real reason — reported progress on the $22 billion Qorvo merger plus a quarterly beat, per Yahoo Finance and TIKR on September 11. Last week the same move had no receipt at all; the pull caught up.
- Two inventory builds worth watching. $PWR's inventory grew 64% year over year against 41% revenue growth in its June quarter, and $VRT's grew 78% against 24%. In a buildout, inventory ahead of revenue is either pre-positioning or the first sign of an order pause; it resolves at the next print, not before.
- An AI forecaster is trading the thesis in options. CNBC's David Faber reported September 11 that Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness has been buying options positions in $AMD, $BE and $CRWV. That is sourced positioning, not evidence — but all three are financing-side names, which is the exact axis this week sorted on.
12. Paper Trade Report Card
Eleven paper books sat their sessions on the Friday close. Ten passed or held on their own written rules; the leveraged-speculation book trimmed half of its oil-explorers position under its +15% partial-profit rule (filled at $195.72, +15.01%). Correction, later Friday night: that book's risk gate had been dark since September 5 because of a phantom, not a hole — its June 7 SOXL exit had been filled at a two-session-stale close, booking a +25% target that never printed on the day it was dated. That fill, and three like it in two other books from the same June 7 run, were re-booked at the June 5 settled close. The speculation book drops to second on the leaderboard ($109,270.76, +9.27%) behind the wealth-advisor book ($109,307.92, +9.31%), and its gate is clear. Two typed buy proposals (a $1,000 DuPont entry in the mechanical-signals book and a $2,971 crypto-industry fund entry in the swing book) were submitted after the close and fill at Monday's canonical noon print, not at a price invented tonight. At session time the leveraged-speculation book's risk breaker read as held since its September 5 fill; the correction above is why, and it no longer holds.
claude trader $109,308 +9.3% 20 open · updated 2026-09-11
yolo $109,271 +9.3% 12 open · updated 2026-09-11
dip buyer $100,000 0.0% 0 open · updated n/a
momentum trader $99,443 -0.6% 3 open · updated 2026-09-11
bench signals $55,820 n/a 55 open · updated 2026-09-11
13. What I'd Tell a Friend
The market paid the supply chain for Oracle's quarter and charged Oracle for it. That is the trade to sit with: own the equipment, not the balance sheet doing the borrowing. But Friday's prints on the winners were 12% single-day moves, which is the worst possible entry for a trend-hold book. Nothing below is a chase.
- $COHR — in zone, four of five bells, the loudest signal on the board. It closed $305.37, above the $299.22 reclaim its watch names, +8.3% on the week against -14.1% on the month, 9.2% above its 200-day with a +195.0% year. Entry condition: a hold above $299.22 with the week's volume pattern intact. Invalidation: a close back under $299.22, which returns it to wait.
- $GLW — the trigger is already cleared and the structure is clean. It closed $166.40 against a $154.59 level, +7.8% on the week, 14.4% above its 200-day with a +120.5% year, and filed an 8-K Friday. Entry condition: a first pullback that holds $154.59. Invalidation: a close below it.
- $MRVL — cleared $224.58, closed $236.10, +5.6% on the week with a +254.6% year and 52.5% above its long average, still 28.4% off its own high. Entry condition: the $224.58 level holds on a retest. Invalidation: losing it.
- The semiconductor equipment book is the cleanest long-horizon group on the desk — all fourteen names positive on both the trailing year and excess return. $TER ($379.72, +228.6% on the year, 18.4% above its 200-day) and $FORM ($114.95, +276.0%, 11.3% above) are the two with both the trend and the cushion; $AMKR (+103.8% on the year but 8.4% below its 200-day) is the trend-under-test version and needs the long average reclaimed first. Entry condition for the group: a reclaim of the 50-day on above-average volume after a higher low.
- $MU is not a buy until $989.96 is back. It closed $975.26 for a second session under the flag ceiling, with a +547.7% year and 56.8% of cushion. The number is the number; the setup is intact and the trigger is not.
What not to do today: chase energy. The refiners are at RSI 74–83, the E&P fund at 70.2 and the crude fund at 71.9 with 41.9% of cushion above its long average. That trade is made. Same for $DELL and $HPE after 12% days — the thesis got confirmed, the entry got worse.
The one thing to watch: the Federal Reserve's decision is scheduled for Wednesday, September 16, with crowd pricing at 81% for a hike. Equities spent Friday deciding they could absorb it while the bond market sat at capitulation readings. If the ten-year prints 5.00%, or high-yield spreads reach 3.50 points on two consecutive readings against today's 2.70%, the levels above stop being entries and start being exits.
14. Active Perspectives
| Perspective | Status | Key update |
|---|---|---|
| AI power: rack and chip conversion | Active | Power semiconductors +4.2% with all 12 members up and power supplies +4.1% with all 7 — the delivery layer moved as one block on Friday |
| AI optics: bandwidth becomes supplier earnings | Active | $COHR reached four of five convergence bells, the board's loudest; $GLW filed an 8-K and is +7.8% on the week |
| AI memory: pricing discipline through the supply ramp | Active | Memory lost leadership on the rotation map this week even as CNBC reported sub-$100 smartphones disappearing on memory prices |
| Nearline storage: density and supplier discipline | Active | $STX -3.7% on the day and -5.5% on the month, still +321.8% on the year; competitor-capacity evidence still open |
| AI power: generation and grid equipment | Active | Oracle's filing quantifies $34.150B of power and component obligations but zero contracted or energized megawatts — commitment documented, energization unverified |
| Nuclear fuel: contracting reaches enrichment and supply | Monitoring | Worst lane of the week: -4.1% median with 3 of 19 up; $LEU 27.1% below its 200-day |
| Biotech funding: conversion into tools and CRO orders | Monitoring | Tools names are candidates, not trends; the shared momentum condition is still incomplete |
| Energy disruption: physical flows and exporter economics | Monitoring | The physical leg got dated evidence — Saudi pipeline shut, diesel at a record $6 — while the crude funds fell on the day |
| Drone defense: contracts become profitable deliveries | Monitoring (wounded) | 14 of 21 names now carry negative excess return, up from about half; $AVAV's real beat moved a chart 30.1% below its long average |
| AI spending: the supplier earnings reversal case | Monitoring | Oracle's quarter refuted the order channel and supplied evidence on the financing channel instead; the case's support condition is not met |
15. Scan Summary
Thirty-one scans completed on the September 11 settled close: Market Pulse, AI Sector, AI Infrastructure, Biotech, NVIDIA Ecosystem, Defensives, Healthcare, Consumer, Retail, Cloud ETFs, Cybersecurity, EV & Clean Energy, ETF Universe, Insider Activity, Bargain Bin, Tech Insider Buys, Crypto, Macro & Commodities, Defense Contractors, Geopolitical Risk, Optical Supply Chain, Drone & Defense, Supply-Chain Traces, Semiconductor Equipment, Food Security, Cultural Signals, Airlines, Chemicals, Travel & Leisure, Momentum Board and Turnaround Watch. Momentum Discovery ran alongside as an optional screen.
Ten perspectives carry a September 11 data stamp. Fifty-three tracked-company profiles were refreshed, led by the Oracle dive. Eleven candidate themes were re-cut. Coverage reached 2,579 rows at the September 11 close across 1,139 unique symbols, with non-derivative breadth of 753 up, 359 down and 14 flat across 1,126 names at a median one-day change of +0.6%.
Data source: the desk's settled September 11 close. Event attribution comes from company filings, wire and publication coverage dated September 8–11, and where no such receipt exists the move is reported as having no established cause rather than given one. The prior issue is the September 10 daily brief, which set the cohort test this issue resolves.
Recorded coverage: 31 required scans complete, 0 without a dated artifact. The complete receipt is under All Scans below.
Today's Actions · 41 ADBE $252.23 · UBER $71.67 · SYK $275.56
exit · 3
ADBE $252.23 breaking down — -5.4% this week, 32.0% off its 52-week high despite a +1.4% bounce today; down 28.1% over the past year and 5.4% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
UBER $71.67 breaking down — -5.4% this week, 29.7% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 24.3% over the past year and 5.7% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
SYK $275.56 breaking down — -9.1% this week, 29.8% off its 52-week high despite a +2.1% bounce today; down 29.1% over the past year and 18.2% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
entry · 38
DELL breaking out at a fresh 52-week high after a +8.2% week — a +43% three-month run, not a one-week pop
VLO breaking out 2.2% off its 52-week high after a +5.3% week — a +51% three-month run, not a one-week pop
USO breaking out 2.5% off its 52-week high after a +9.1% week — a +24% three-month run, not a one-week pop · watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime)
TSLA coming into play — 26.7% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+3.2% this week)
IBM $231.80–244.00 coming into play — 26.8% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+3.6% this week) · in its $231.80–244.00 buy zone
TMUS coming into play — 25.4% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+0.5% this week)
COHR $299.22 watch-grade call — 4 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, advisory, regime); trigger at $299.22 · tape broken
CRDO $255.50 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $255.50 · tape broken trend-hold
SPY watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout trend-hold
UUP watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
ABCL $8.45 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $8.45 trend-hold
BE watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime)
BNO watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime)
CCJ watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime) trend-hold
GLW $154.59 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $154.59
IREN $45.66 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $45.66
META $665 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $665 trend-hold
AAPL no setup today — still in trend, +3.8% this week, 3.6% off its 52-week high
AMZN no setup today — still in trend, -0.7% this week, 10.6% off its 52-week high
ARGX no setup today — still in trend, -4.7% this week, 8.2% off its 52-week high
ARM no setup today — drifting down, +5.0% this week, 41.5% off its 52-week high trend-hold
ARQQ no setup today — drifting down, -6.2% this week, 67.7% off its 52-week high
GOOGL no setup today — drifting down, +0.0% this week, 17.2% off its 52-week high
HQ no setup today — moving sideways, -2.2% this week, 66.2% off its 52-week high
ILMN no setup today — still in trend, -5.4% this week, 10.9% off its 52-week high
INFQ no setup today — drifting up, +2.1% this week, 52.3% off its 52-week high
IONQ no setup today — under pressure, -7.0% this week, 56.6% off its 52-week high
LAES no setup today — under pressure, -1.6% this week, 72.7% off its 52-week high
NET no setup today — still in trend, +9.9% this week, 7.7% off its 52-week high trend-hold
NTR no setup today — still in trend, -1.3% this week, 8.1% off its 52-week high
NVDA no setup today — still in trend, -5.2% this week, 7.7% off its 52-week high
OUST no setup today — drifting down, -3.0% this week, 44.6% off its 52-week high
PL no setup today — under pressure, -9.2% this week, 68.2% off its 52-week high trend-hold
QBTS no setup today — under pressure, +1.3% this week, 64.1% off its 52-week high
QUBT no setup today — under pressure, -0.3% this week, 69.1% off its 52-week high
RGTI no setup today — under pressure, +0.5% this week, 73.7% off its 52-week high
SNDK no setup today — still in trend, -6.1% this week, 30.6% off its 52-week high
XNDU no setup today — under pressure, -11.3% this week, 79.7% off its 52-week high
All Scans 31 complete · 0 without a dated artifact
The desk's frozen record The machine-built sections as this issue recorded them — the tape, calls, and wires that were true on this date (desk plumbing and file-path lines removed for reading).
Regime State
- State counts: collapse: 166, pullback: 411, uptrend: 252, downtrend: 123.
- Latest transition batch: 2026-09-11 vs 2026-09-10; 44 confirmed state-to-state flips, 0 entries, 3 exits.
- Confirmed flips: $ABCL uptrend -> pullback; $ABNB uptrend -> pullback; $ADA-USD pullback -> downtrend; $AME uptrend -> basing; $AVDV breakout -> uptrend; $AXON pullback -> downtrend.
Rates & Macro
Source: FRED last-good series under macro; values are aligned to the desk date without interpolation.
| Series | Observation | Tape alignment | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
2Y Treasury (DGS2) |
4.56% as of 2026-09-10 | carried | fresh |
10Y Treasury (DGS10) |
4.95% as of 2026-09-10 | carried | fresh |
10Y minus 2Y curve (T10Y2Y) |
0.33% as of 2026-09-11 | direct | fresh |
Effective fed funds (DFF) |
3.63% as of 2026-09-10 | carried | fresh |
10Y real yield (DFII10) |
2.55% as of 2026-09-10 | carried | fresh |
CPI (all urban consumers) (CPIAUCSL) |
334.1 as of 2026-08-01 | carried | fresh |
US high-yield option-adjusted spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) |
2.70% as of 2026-09-10 | carried | fresh |
Broad US dollar index (DTWEXBGS) |
118.1 as of 2026-09-04 | carried | fresh |
VIX close (VIXCLS) |
17.84 as of 2026-09-10 | carried | fresh |
Chicago Fed financial conditions (NFCI) |
-0.56 as of 2026-09-04 | carried | fresh |
Cross-sector Rotation
- Money rotating INTO Crypto (RS +22.9, 45% strong-up, today +1.6%), Trace Iran War Second And Third Order Effects (RS +12.1, 71% strong-up, today +1.5%), Food Security (RS +11.3, 80% strong-up, today -0.8%) — OUT OF Drone Defense (RS -16.1), Quantum Computing (RS -14.3), Space (RS -14.3). Benchmark SPY -1.1% 30d. ⚡ EMERGING (turning up before the trailing board): Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment (accel +6.3, 100% up), Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon (accel +5.7, 50% up), Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules (accel +3.8, 50% up), Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing (accel +3.8, 50% up), Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling (accel +3.3, 50% up). ◔ EARLY TURN (accelerating, breadth unconfirmed — probe, not a call): Optical Supply Chain (accel +7.1, 40% up, led by MXL/FLTCF/SMTC), Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging (accel +6.6, 44% up, led by AMKR/GLW/INTC), Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves (accel +6.1, 14% up, led by FLEX/VICR/MRAAY), Thebuildout Co Packaged Optics CPO (accel +5.1, 46% up, led by HPE/SMTC/VIAV), WFE Test Metrology (accel +4.4, 29% up, led by FORM/AMKR/TER). TURNING LAGGARDS (30d RS still negative; 7d RS now positive): Optical Supply Chain (30d -10.5, 7d +5.2, divergence +15.7), Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves (30d -9.8, 7d +4.3, divergence +14.1), Thebuildout Lithography Equipment (30d -12.6, 7d +1.4, divergence +14.1), WFE Test Metrology (30d -11.8, 7d +2.1, divergence +13.9), Thebuildout Etch Equipment (30d -12.0, 7d +1.6, divergence +13.6), Thebuildout Cmp Slurries Consumables (30d -10.9, 7d +1.6, divergence +12.4), Thebuildout Glass Core Panel Level Packaging (30d -5.9, 7d +5.7, divergence +11.6), Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon (30d -6.6, 7d +4.7, divergence +11.3), Thebuildout Photoresists Lithography Materials (30d -9.4, 7d +1.8, divergence +11.2), Thebuildout Semiconductor Bonding Interconnect Materials (30d -7.7, 7d +3.0, divergence +10.7), Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment (30d -4.9, 7d +5.7, divergence +10.6), Thebuildout Co Packaged Optics CPO (30d -5.9, 7d +4.3, divergence +10.1), Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors (30d -6.9, 7d +3.0, divergence +9.9), Humanoid Robotics (30d -9.5, 7d +0.2, divergence +9.8), Thebuildout Package Substrate Interposer Ecosystem (30d -7.4, 7d +1.7, divergence +9.1), Thebuildout Trailing Edge Logic Specialty Foundries (30d -6.5, 7d +2.5, divergence +9.0), Web Cloud (30d -6.8, 7d +2.3, divergence +9.0), Thebuildout Power Distribution Pdus Busways (30d -6.7, 7d +2.3, divergence +9.0), Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing (30d -6.1, 7d +2.9, divergence +8.9), Grid Buildout (30d -6.5, 7d +2.4, divergence +8.9), Thebuildout Semiconductor Ip Licensors (30d -6.3, 7d +2.5, divergence +8.8), Neoclouds (30d -8.5, 7d +0.2, divergence +8.6), Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling (30d -6.0, 7d +2.5, divergence +8.5), Spacex S1 Supply Chain (30d -7.9, 7d +0.5, divergence +8.5), Thebuildout HBM Memory (30d -5.9, 7d +1.8, divergence +7.7), AI Power (30d -6.7, 7d +1.0, divergence +7.7), Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules (30d -4.3, 7d +3.3, divergence +7.6), Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect (30d -5.8, 7d +1.7, divergence +7.5), Thebuildout Fuel Cells Alternative Dc Power (30d -6.5, 7d +1.0, divergence +7.5), Thebuildout Ups Energy Storage Data Centers (30d -6.5, 7d +1.0, divergence +7.5), Thebuildout Natural Gas Turbines Dc Power (30d -6.5, 7d +1.0, divergence +7.5), Thebuildout Advanced Packaging 2d3d Leaders (30d -5.5, 7d +1.9, divergence +7.3), Thebuildout Specialty Gases Process Chemicals (30d -6.8, 7d +0.1, divergence +6.8), Thebuildout Data Center Thermal Management (30d -5.0, 7d +1.8, divergence +6.8), Electricity (30d -5.2, 7d +0.7, divergence +6.0), Thebuildout Specialty Electronic Gases (30d -4.7, 7d +0.1, divergence +4.7). Fading leaders: Crypto (accel -6.4, today +1.6%), Food Security (accel -3.8, today -0.8%), Hard Assets (accel -4.3, today +0.7%), Ark (accel -3.1, today +0.6%).
- ⚡ Front-run (emerging, turning up before the trailing board): Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment (accel +6.3, 100% up); Thebuildout Data Center Networking Silicon (accel +5.7, 50% up); Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules (accel +3.8, 50% up); Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing (accel +3.8, 50% up); Thebuildout Data Center Fiber High Speed Cabling (accel +3.3, 50% up).
- ↗ Turning laggards (30d RS still negative; 7d RS now positive): optical-supply-chain (30d -10.5, 7d +5.2, divergence +15.7); thebuildout-power-supplies-psu-power-shelves (30d -9.8, 7d +4.3, divergence +14.1); thebuildout-lithography-equipment (30d -12.6, 7d +1.4, divergence +14.1); wfe-test-metrology (30d -11.8, 7d +2.1, divergence +13.9); thebuildout-etch-equipment (30d -12.0, 7d +1.6, divergence +13.6); thebuildout-cmp-slurries-consumables (30d -10.9, 7d +1.6, divergence +12.4); thebuildout-glass-core-panel-level-packaging (30d -5.9, 7d +5.7, divergence +11.6); thebuildout-data-center-networking-silicon (30d -6.6, 7d +4.7, divergence +11.3); thebuildout-photoresists-lithography-materials (30d -9.4, 7d +1.8, divergence +11.2); thebuildout-semiconductor-bonding-interconnect-materials (30d -7.7, 7d +3.0, divergence +10.7); thebuildout-semiconductor-test-burn-in-equipment (30d -4.9, 7d +5.7, divergence +10.6); thebuildout-co-packaged-optics-cpo (30d -5.9, 7d +4.3, divergence +10.1); thebuildout-data-center-power-semiconductors (30d -6.9, 7d +3.0, divergence +9.9); humanoid-robotics (30d -9.5, 7d +0.2, divergence +9.8); thebuildout-package-substrate-interposer-ecosystem (30d -7.4, 7d +1.7, divergence +9.1); thebuildout-trailing-edge-logic-specialty-foundries (30d -6.5, 7d +2.5, divergence +9.0); web-cloud (30d -6.8, 7d +2.3, divergence +9.0); thebuildout-power-distribution-pdus-busways (30d -6.7, 7d +2.3, divergence +9.0); thebuildout-ems-contract-electronics-manufacturing (30d -6.1, 7d +2.9, divergence +8.9); grid-buildout (30d -6.5, 7d +2.4, divergence +8.9); thebuildout-semiconductor-ip-licensors (30d -6.3, 7d +2.5, divergence +8.8); neoclouds (30d -8.5, 7d +0.2, divergence +8.6); thebuildout-data-center-fiber-high-speed-cabling (30d -6.0, 7d +2.5, divergence +8.5); spacex-s1-supply-chain (30d -7.9, 7d +0.5, divergence +8.5); thebuildout-hbm-memory (30d -5.9, 7d +1.8, divergence +7.7); ai-power (30d -6.7, 7d +1.0, divergence +7.7); thebuildout-optical-transceivers-modules (30d -4.3, 7d +3.3, divergence +7.6); thebuildout-transformers-grid-interconnect (30d -5.8, 7d +1.7, divergence +7.5); thebuildout-fuel-cells-alternative-dc-power (30d -6.5, 7d +1.0, divergence +7.5); thebuildout-ups-energy-storage-data-centers (30d -6.5, 7d +1.0, divergence +7.5); thebuildout-natural-gas-turbines-dc-power (30d -6.5, 7d +1.0, divergence +7.5); thebuildout-advanced-packaging-2d3d-leaders (30d -5.5, 7d +1.9, divergence +7.3); thebuildout-specialty-gases-process-chemicals (30d -6.8, 7d +0.1, divergence +6.8); thebuildout-data-center-thermal-management (30d -5.0, 7d +1.8, divergence +6.8); electricity (30d -5.2, 7d +0.7, divergence +6.0); thebuildout-specialty-electronic-gases (30d -4.7, 7d +0.1, divergence +4.7).
Lane Tape
- Reference: SPY +0.8%, RSP +0.8%. 124 lanes with 3+ settled names; 33 closed at least 90% up, 1 at least 90% down.
| Lane | Med 1D | Up | 30d phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thebuildout Ems Contract Electronics Manufacturing | +5.0% | 7/8 | emerging (RS -6.1) |
| Thebuildout Racks Chassis Mechanical Infrastructure | +5.0% | 15/16 | emerging (RS -4.1) |
| Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking | +4.6% | 3/3 | neutral (RS -0.2) |
| Thebuildout Data Center Switch Nic Vendors | +4.5% | 12/13 | leading (RS +3.1) |
| Thebuildout Semiconductor Fab Construction Engineering | +4.3% | 4/4 | neutral (RS -2.5) |
| Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors | +4.2% | 12/12 | early-turn (RS -6.9) |
| Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves | +4.1% | 7/7 | early-turn (RS -9.8) |
| Thebuildout Data Center Thermal Management | +4.0% | 17/18 (19 in lane) | neutral (RS -5.0) |
| … 108 more | |||
| Biotech | -0.4% | 17/39 | neutral (RS -1.5) |
| Trace Lng Liquefaction Shipping And Regasification | -0.5% | 2/5 | lagging (RS -2.9) |
| Food Security | -0.7% | 0/10 | fading (RS +11.3) |
| Nearline Storage | -0.9% | 2/5 (6 in lane) | lagging (RS -4.4) |
| Canadian OG | -0.9% | 2/7 | leading (RS +7.8) |
| Cybersec | -1.0% | 3/11 | neutral (RS -5.7) |
| Thebuildout Rare Earth Miners Processors | -1.6% | 1/3 | lagging (RS -6.2) |
| Nuclear Fuel Cycle | -4.1% | 3/19 | lagging (RS -9.2) |
What moved together
- Canadian OG -0.9% median, 2 of 7 up; the 30-day rank reads leading — the month is strong, the day is not.
- Thebuildout Racks Chassis Mechanical Infrastructure +5.0% median, 15 of 16 up, 4.2 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Data Center Switch Nic Vendors +4.5% median, 12 of 13 up, 3.6 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors +4.2% median, 12 of 12 up, 3.3 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves +4.1% median, 7 of 7 up, 3.2 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Data Center Thermal Management +4.0% median, 17 of 18 up, 3.1 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Power Distribution Pdus Busways +3.6% median, 10 of 10 up, 2.8 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect +3.6% median, 8 of 8 up, 2.8 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Connector High Speed Interconnect +3.6% median, 10 of 10 up, 2.7 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Optical Transceivers Modules +3.6% median, 22 of 24 up, 2.7 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
Movers and their cohorts
- $SMR -15.7% on 2.7× volume — attribution: watched; Nuclear Fuel Cycle -4.1% (3/19), AI Infrastructure +1.7% (43/54), AI lane +0.7% (44/67)
- $HPE +12.4% — attribution: watched; Thebuildout Space Data Centers Orbital Compute +3.7% (5/6), Thebuildout Data Center Switch Nic Vendors +4.5% (12/13), Thebuildout Racks Chassis Mechanical Infrastructure +5.0% (15/16), Thebuildout AI Storage Data Pipeline +0.9% (11/18); 3 more lanes
- $DELL +12.0% — attribution: expected; Watching +1.6% (9/10), Thebuildout Data Center Switch Nic Vendors +4.5% (12/13), Thebuildout Racks Chassis Mechanical Infrastructure +5.0% (15/16), Thebuildout AI Storage Data Pipeline +0.9% (11/18); 2 more lanes
- $VICR +11.2% — attribution: watched; Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves +4.1% (7/7), Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors +4.2% (12/12), AI Power +2.5% (48/57), Electricity +1.7% (43/58)
Mover bar: a 1D move of 10%+, or 3× volume with a 1D move of 5%+; price $1+, $50M+ dollar volume; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income wrappers excluded.
Volatility Gate
- VIX 15.84 (CALM) · 1d -11.2%. 😴 VIX CALM — 15.84 (<16). Complacent; no fear discount available.
- No fire-sale trigger (rule: >=30% one-day spike is the trigger; the level alone is context).
- Credit tape (7d): HYG -0.7% · LQD -1.1% · IEF -1.3% — the flush-vs-break discriminator: orderly credit means the selling is positioning, not a credit event.
Crowd Odds
- Bitcoin reaches $80,000 by December 31, 2026 (crypto-geopolitics reopen trigger level) — RESOLVED YES (Polymarket, settled 2026-08-24)
- Fed hikes 25bps at the September 2026 meeting (Polymarket cross-check) — 81% (Polymarket, as of 09-11; wk +38pt)
- Fed holds (0bps) at the September 16, 2026 meeting — 21% (Kalshi, as of 09-11; wk -34pt)
- Government shutdown by October 1, 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — 1% (Polymarket, as of 09-11; wk -1pt)
- US government shut down on Oct 1, 2026 — 1% (Kalshi, as of 09-11; wk +0pt)
- NVIDIA is the largest company by market cap on December 31, 2026 — 77% (Polymarket, as of 09-11; wk +0pt)
- US recession by end of 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — 7% (Polymarket, as of 09-11; wk +0pt)
- NBER-dated US recession in 2026 — 5% (Kalshi, as of 09-11; wk -1pt)
The Prints
- $ORCL — Reported EPS $1.92 versus analyst consensus of $1.74 (+10.4%).
- $ADBE — Reported EPS $6.13 versus analyst consensus of $6.09 (+0.7%).
- $AVAV — Reported EPS $0.59 versus analyst consensus of $0.25 (+138.1%).
- $RH — Reported EPS $2.70 versus analyst consensus of $0.46 (+483.9%).
- $NAVN — Reported EPS $0.05 versus analyst consensus of $0.04 (+27.8%).
- $LPTH — Reported EPS $0.01 versus analyst consensus of $0.01 (+27.0%).
Upcoming Prints (next 72h)
- 2026-09-11 — time unknown: LAES
Tripwires
- Tripwires: no new trips since the 2026-09-11 duty pass.
Desk Calls
| Ticker | Stance | Entry | Review-by | 30d vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SNDK | watch | A new flag and held base, then a close strictly above $1740.00. Friday’s equal close… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $AMAT | watch | WAIT: close above $489.46 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders,… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $CEG | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $299.73 (Sept 4 high; canonical pivot 296.62 already crossed);… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $COHR | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $299.22 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus supplier allocation… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GEV | watch | WAIT: close above $971.98 (20-day average); Reclaim after initial pop and hold a… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $GLW | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $154.59 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $IREN | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $45.66 (200-day average); Long-average reclaim and held flag;… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $LRCX | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $312.76 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, memory… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $MRVL | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $224.58 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current design-win… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $MU | buy (in zone) | BUY while the cleared 989.96 flag ceiling holds; losing it returns the entry to WAIT… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $NBIS | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $226.58 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); New post-rebound… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $NVDA | watch | WAIT: close above $236.54 (established pivot; preserved predecessor); Settled… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SNDK | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $1740.00 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); Strict close… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $SOXX | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $523.42 (20-day average; first reclaim reference, not 575.88… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $TSM | watch | WAIT: close above $461.47 (established pivot); Settled volume-supported breakout… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $VRT | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $280.99 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $WDC | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $468.19 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 | pending |
| $BE | watch | holds the 200-day average at $188.51 | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $GDX | watch | the confirming leg, not the broken one — 11.6% above its 200-day on a +62.48% year;… | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $GLD | watch | a close back above the 200-day ($414.79) that holds a full week; below that the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | pending |
| $MKSI | watch | reclaims its 200-day average at $259.70 with RSI back above 45 | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $SIL | watch | same shape as GDX — 11.5% above its 200-day on a +75.94% year | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $SLV | pass | n/a — 7.7% below its own 200-day and widening; a reclaim of that average is the… | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $AGIO | watch | after the current reset prints a higher low, reclaims the 50-day ($35.56) with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | pending |
| $DHR | watch (invalidation?) | after a pullback to the $210.39 volume shelf, holds and turns back above it with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | pending |
| $EWY | pass | the one-factor market: 16 of the last 45 sessions moved more than 4% — the template… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $GDX | watch | the policy-blink bid is real but entries are pullbacks, not +8% days — a hold of the… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $KRE | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the bank-stress tell the bond-fear feed keeps asserting; regionals are… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $BNO | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the oil leg of the monitor. BNO ~$57 is Brent ~$100 at the current… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $HYG | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the tell. Credit at -0.31% from its high while the long bond makes… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $PSX | pass | same as VLO — RSI 80 at the high; nothing here to chase | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $SPY | watch | no new entry — the trend is intact 0.86% off its high; hold it while the 200-day… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $TLT | watch (in zone) | the historical equity low arrives AT the yield peak, so the long bond is only worth… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $VLO | pass | the diesel-crack trade is made — RSI 74.8, 0.96% off its high, +35.46% in three… | 2026-09-19 | pending |
| $AXON | watch | a pullback that holds the $576.14 shelf or the 20-day ($556.43) | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $ITA | pass | no entry 2.69% off a 52-week high with RSI 64.4; the wrapper prices the primes, not… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $KTOS | pass | no entry while price sits 12.3% below the 200-day ($73.65) with a death cross intact… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $RCAT | pass | no entry after a +20.85% week that stalled at the anchored VWAP from the low… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $UMAC | watch | a pullback that bases in $21-$24, where the value-area high ($21.09), 50-day… | 2026-10-09 | pending |
| $DUST | pass | n/a — the inverse side of the same instrument problem | 2026-09-11 | n/a |
| $GDX | watch | don't chase RSI 70.3 after a +21.31% week — a first pullback that holds the 200-day… | 2026-09-11 | +9.7% |
| $GLD | watch (in zone) | a close above the 200-day ($411.70) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +0.2% |
| $NUGT | pass | n/a — leveraged miner exposure compounds the whipsaw that already makes miners the… | 2026-09-11 | +16.4% |
| $SIL | watch (in zone) | above its 200-day by 2.4% but RSI 67.1 after +20.0% — same pullback discipline as… | 2026-09-11 | +10.0% |
| $SIMO | watch (in zone) | price back above the 20-day ($264.25) with the 30-day loss narrowing | 2026-09-11 | +18.9% |
| $SLV | watch | the laggard of the complex at 9.8% below its 200-day ($63.76) — a reclaim of that… | 2026-09-11 | +0.8% |
| $SNDK | pass | no entry while price sits 13.0% below the 20-day ($1,393.06) and 28.2% below the… | 2026-09-11 | +41.3% |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | holds the 20-day ($834.21) and turns RSI back above 50 | 2026-09-11 | +13.8% |
| $UUP | watch | n/a — the dollar at RSI 39.5 is the tailwind, not the trade | 2026-09-11 | +0.4% |
| $GLD | watch (in zone) | a close above the 200-day ($411.72) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +2.9% |
| $CVX | watch | strongest RSI in the upstream cohort (67.2) — hold above the 20-day (~$185.34) to… | 2026-09-11 | +2.0% |
| $GLD | watch | this is a signal to watch, not a trade — a reclaim of the 20-day (~$373.15) would be… | 2026-09-11 | +7.3% |
| $HAL | avoid | not a trend-hold candidate yet — wait for a base and a reclaim of the 50-day… | 2026-09-11 | +11.6% |
| $PSX | watch | RSI is a hair under overbought (69.7) — wait for a pullback to the 20-day (~$200.76)… | 2026-09-11 | +13.8% |
| $USO | watch | the -5.5% weekly pullback holds above the 20-day (~$121.96) — a normal pullback… | 2026-09-11 | +0.8% |
| $VLO | watch | same setup as PSX — a pullback to the 20-day (~$295.63); note this row is one… | 2026-09-11 | +12.0% |
| $ELAN | watch (invalidation?) | a volume-confirmed (at least average volume) close through the 52-week high… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | -9.4% |
| $LEU | watch | first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | +8.9% |
| $CLMT | pass | RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold;… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +7.2% |
| $DK | pass | reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | -0.1% |
| $MPC | watch | the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +9.5% |
| $PANW | watch | the lane's strongest structure (-2.7% from its 52-week high, +83% on the year);… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +3.6% |
| $PL | watch (invalidation?) | untouchable while the knife falls (RSI 30, −14% on the week); interest begins when… | 2026-09-11 | +6.0% |
| $PSX | watch | the diversified laggard of the three (+70% on the year, midstream/chem mix dilutes… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +11.1% |
| $S | watch | the laggard catching up (+30% in 30 days, still only +9% on the year and -8.6% from… | 2026-09-10 (overdue) | +8.0% |
| $SMH | watch (invalidation?) | the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low,… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +2.2% |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | the complex's only accumulation-shaped bar: +5.7% on 1.35× volume, closed near the… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +19.9% |
| $VLO | watch | best 12-month tape of the pure refiners (+117%); same frame — first 20-day hold… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +6.7% |
| $ARM | watch (in zone) | reclaim the pre-registered $270 line and hold it — the trigger the thesis flag broke… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | -2.4% |
| $CCJ | watch | washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the… | 2026-09-15 | +11.2% |
| $DUK | watch (invalidation?) | the one working expression — regulated rate-base growth from the same demand; a… | 2026-09-15 | -5.1% |
| $LEU | watch (in zone) | only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the… | 2026-10-01 | +14.0% |
| $VST | watch (invalidation?) | reclaim the 200-day (~$166) and hold it — first sign the derate is done | 2026-09-15 | -9.9% |
| $ABCL | watch (in zone) | the pop already happened (Feb low $2.78 to a $8.44 high) — this is the first flag;… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | +25.3% |
| $CBRS | watch (in zone) | a close above the post-flush bounce high ($221.30) confirms the higher low and… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | +13.0% |
| $META | watch (invalidation?) | second reclaim attempt off a higher low — buy interest is a close above ~$665,… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | -8.6% |
| $MSFT | watch (in zone) | no turn signature yet — interest begins at the 200-day reclaim (~$442) after a base;… | 2026-10-01 | +28.8% |
| $NTLA | watch (invalidation?) | golden cross, +31% month, and a fresh impulse into $18.48 on July 2 — buy interest… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | -25.0% |
| $ORCL | pass | reopen when the knife stops: the February low ($136) holds on this retest AND a +7%… | 2026-10-01 | +1.9% |
| $AXTI | pass | reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue… | 2026-10-01 | +43.6% |
| $CIFR | pass | reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack | 2026-10-01 | -25.1% |
| $CORZ | pass | reopen on a recapitalization that restores positive equity with the CoreWeave… | 2026-10-01 | -14.3% |
| $CRDO | buy (in zone) | elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the… | 2026-09-15 | -7.1% |
| $CRWV | pass | reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while… | 2026-10-01 | -3.0% |
| $EQT | watch (in zone) | the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two… | 2026-10-01 | -2.7% |
| $HUT | pass | reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and… | 2026-10-01 | -20.3% |
| $KGS | buy (invalidation?) | the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | -18.0% |
| $MXL | watch (in zone) | wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | -16.6% |
| $OKTA | pass | the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen… | 2026-09-15 | -2.7% |
| $TER | buy (in zone) | the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | +4.2% |
| $WDAY | watch | the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but… | 2026-09-15 | +26.6% |
| $SKHY | watch (in zone) | first clean post-debut base — not the open (debut ~2026-07-10) | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | -12.6% |
| $ZM | watch (in zone) | 2 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue; base over $92 | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | +16.0% |
| $STX | buy | own the cleanest un-hyped inflection — nearline-HDD margins compounding 23%→32% over… | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | -5.3% |
Resolved this week: $AMAT buy (2026-09-06); $COHR buy (2026-09-06); $GLW buy (2026-09-06); $IREN watch (2026-09-06); $LRCX buy (2026-09-06); $MRVL buy (2026-09-06); $NVDA watch (2026-09-06); $SOXX buy (2026-09-06); $TSM buy (2026-09-06); $VRT buy (2026-09-06); $WDC buy (2026-09-06); $WDC watch (2026-09-06); $CEG watch (2026-09-06); $GEV watch (2026-09-06); $MU watch (2026-09-06); $NVDA watch (2026-09-06); $CEG watch (2026-09-06); $MU watch (2026-09-06); $NVDA watch (2026-09-06); $NBIS buy (2026-09-06); $MU buy (2026-09-06); $SNDK watch (2026-09-06); $WDC buy (2026-09-06).
A desk call is an authored stance from a published report; entry and invalidation conditions are human-read, and the full ledger lives at /calls.
30d vs SPY is the raw name-vs-SPY move since the call — for trim/sell calls a NEGATIVE number means the call worked (the name fell after it).
From the Feeds
Curated picks from the last 7 days of the X / Reddit / Discord / web sweep — items the desk read and kept, not the raw capture firehose. Source: -pick- (type: curated-find).
𝕏@ChurchillWw — Winston — Permian output nearly quadrupled on flat completion counts because laterals went from 6,149 ft to 10,867 ft · link- With Brent back over 100 dollars this week, the rig-count read on US supply response is the wrong instrument: completions have held near 6,000 a year since 2022 while output nearly quadrupled on lateral length alone. Cited to an EIA release, so it is checkable.
𝕏@mvcinvesting — M. V. Cunha — Nebius management at Goldman: demand visibility stretches to 24+ months, older GPUs stay economically relevant $NBIS $CRWV $PLTR $MSFT $META · link- A readback of named management statements on a focus-lane name: demand visibility moved from about 18 to 24-plus months, customers are booking capacity for the first half of 2028, and the GPU-obsolescence bear case gets a direct rebuttal (a waiting list for older-generation chips). Read against the AI-capex digestion…
𝕏@RichTerry123 — Terry — Citi Global TMT readout: NAND TAM $50B to $500B by 2027, AMD CPU TAM $60B to $220B, optical testing capacity about 100x short $SNDK $MU $AMD $LITE $COHR $SKHY · link- One conference readout that touches three live theses at once: SanDisk's contract structure (half of shipments now, two-thirds by 2028, gross margin near 80% at a floor price) is the memory pricing-discipline mechanism, and the CPO testing-capacity figure reframes the optical bottleneck as a test-and-qualification pro…
𝕏@aleabitoreddit — Serenity — HBM scarcity has pushed Chinese AI accelerator prices up 20-50% in two months $MU $SKHY · link- A checkable data point that memory tightness now shows up in downstream accelerator pricing, not only in DRAM contracts: Huawei's Ascend 950DT quoted 20-50% higher and Cambricon's 690 20-30% higher than two months ago. The author discloses a long memory position, and the Reuters grey-market claim is second-hand until…
𝕏@SemiAnalysis_ — SemiAnalysis — the AI trade's third derivative is ABF substrate equipment, chemistry and film, not the substrate makers · link- The cleanest physics-down chain captured this week: package bodies grew from 58x55mm on Hopper to about 95x98mm on Rubin and build-up layers from 10-14 to 24+, so wet-process steps, lamination steps and adhesion chemistry scale with substrate complexity rather than unit count. A test of whether substrate coverage stop…
𝕏@CKCapitalxx — CV Research via CK Capital — AI power loss scales with current squared, not watts, and one vendor transforms instead of switching $VICR · link- Reframes rack power in the unit that binds, amps rather than watts, and puts a number on it: moving the same chip's power at 48 volts instead of 6 cuts the loss 64-fold. First-half bookings of 414 million dollars against 211 million shipped says the constraint is the factory, not demand. Feeds the last-six-inches leg…
Filings
- NEW: $WULF 4 filed 2026-09-11 (period 2026-09-10)
- NEW: $CEPL 4 filed 2026-09-11 (period 2026-09-09)
- NEW: $HALO 4 filed 2026-09-11 (period 2026-09-09)
- NEW: $CRWD 4 filed 2026-09-11 (period 2026-09-09)
- NEW: $NTRA 4 filed 2026-09-11 (period 2026-09-11)
- Last 14 days: $MSFT 4 (2026-09-11); $MSFT 4 (2026-09-11); $MSFT 4 (2026-09-11); $MSFT 4 (2026-09-11); $MSFT 4 (2026-09-11); $MSFT 4 (2026-09-11); $MSFT 4 (2026-09-11); $MSFT 4 (2026-09-11); ….
Breadth And Movers
Price truth: *; primary summary date 2026-09-11. Row dates: 2026-09-11: 2582, 2026-09-10: 1.
- Summary coverage: 2582/2583 rows at 2026-09-11; 1139 unique symbols after de-duplication.
- Non-derivative unique-symbol breadth: 753 up, 359 down, 14 flat across 1126 names; median 1D change +0.6%.
- Market-pulse breadth: 42 up, 14 down, 0 flat; median 1D change +0.6% from market-pulse.
Top gainers by 1D change (filtered to price >= $1, dollar volume >= $50M, finite RSI; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income funds excluded — their print is a geared restatement of an underlying, not a company move):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $HPE | +12.4% | +19.4% | +5.6% | 64.1 | strong-up | $62.09 | monster-discoveries |
| $DELL | +12.0% | +8.2% | +17.1% | 66.6 | Overbought | $567.29 | ai-infrastructure |
| $VICR | +11.2% | +5.0% | -12.5% | 48.1 | down | $197.91 | ai-power |
| $HTFL | +9.7% | +2.0% | +67.1% | 68.1 | Overbought | $49.88 | monster-discoveries |
| $FPS | +9.0% | +1.5% | -16.9% | 44.6 | neutral | $31.82 | ai-power |
Top laggards by 1D change (same filter):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SMR | -15.7% | -11.2% | -10.2% | 43.0 | strong-down | $8.61 | ai-infrastructure |
| $OKLO | -9.2% | -12.2% | -19.7% | 38.7 | strong-down | $36.22 | ai-infrastructure |
| $LEU | -8.2% | -12.4% | -17.7% | 38.3 | strong-down | $152.31 | ai-power |
| $ALM | -6.5% | -11.8% | +7.8% | 43.6 | strong-up | $15.49 | monster-discoveries |
| $DNN | -6.5% | -11.7% | -8.2% | 39.9 | strong-down | $3.02 | monster-discoveries |
- Excluded as derivative wrappers (7): $SOXS -5.6%, $SOXL +5.2%, $TECL +3.9%, $TQQQ +2.6%, $UPRO +2.4%, $SPXL +2.4%, $TNA +1.1% — read these in the tape scans, where leverage and the underlying travel with them.
Targets In Zone
| Target | Anchor date | Tickers | Mechanical status | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DD entry-zone — <$127 | 2026-09-11 | $DD | IN ZONE — $126.99 under $127 and still falling (trend down) | <$127 |
| ARM entry-zone — support shelf <$166.15 | 2026-08-28 | $ARM | APPROACHING — $264.79 is 59.4% above under $166.15; waiting for the pullback | <$166.15 |
| AVGO entry-zone — support shelf <$352.12 / 200-day test | 2026-08-28 | $AVGO | APPROACHING — $361.99 is 2.8% above under $352.12; waiting for the pullback | <$352.12 |
| AVAV profit-target — $276.00 | 2026-08-14 | $AVAV | APPROACHING — $146.71 is 46.8% below the $276 target, trend strong-down | $276.00 |
| UMAC profit-target — $45.00 | 2026-08-14 | $UMAC | APPROACHING — $22.95 is 49.0% below the $45 target, trend weak-down | $45.00 |
| UMAC stop-loss — $18.50 | 2026-08-14 | $UMAC | HOLDING — $22.95 is 24.1% above the $18.50 stop | $18.50 |
| GDX profit-target — $115.00 | 2026-08-08 | $GDX | APPROACHING — $97.10 is 15.6% below the $115 target, trend up | $115.00 |
| GDX stop-loss — $85.00 | 2026-08-08 | $GDX | HOLDING — $97.10 is 14.2% above the $85 stop | $85.00 |
Convergence Leaders
- Stocks in projection: 686;
convergentCount10;divergentCount8.