Last cycle's sharp rally mostly cooled off — 8 of 10 names gave back RSI, led by FMC's 19.8-point round-trip (67.8 → 48.0), which the desk had flagged last scan as a bounce sitting on top of a genuinely broken trailing year, not a repaired trend. Only ADM and BG kept climbing. The book's long-horizon split also widened: MOO and CTVA now join DBA with a mildly negative alpha1y, taking the negative-alpha count from two names last cycle to five this cycle — a meaningfully weaker book on the horizon check than the headline RSI cooldown alone would suggest.

Data as-of the 2026-09-11 close for all 10 names. Comparison baseline is the September 4 scan.

Last cycle's sharp, broad rally mostly reversed this cycle: 8 of 10 names lost RSI ground, and the giveback was sizable in several cases — FMC fell 19.8 points (67.8 → 48.0), CTVA fell 13.2 (64.3 → 51.1), MOO fell 10.9 (70.1 → 59.2), MOS fell 9.5 (67.1 → 57.6). Only ADM (+4.5) and BG (+2.8) kept climbing. Volume data isn't broken out separately here, but the magnitude of these reversals matches the magnitude of last cycle's gains almost point for point — this reads as last week's rally round-tripping rather than a fresh selloff.

FMC is the clearest confirmation of last cycle's call: the desk flagged FMC's 11.5-point RSI surge as "a bounce inside a broken trend, not a resumption" given its -65.22% trailing year and -83.87 alpha1y at the time. This cycle FMC gave essentially the entire bounce back — RSI is now 48.0, close to where it stood before the rally began — while its trailing-year figures remain the weakest in the book (-70.16% 1y, -86.38 alpha1y, 15.5% below its 200-day). Its news receipt is stale (fetched September 3, newest article August 21, predating this week's reversal) — no cause is confirmed for this cycle's giveback specifically.

The more important shift this cycle is in the alpha1y count. Last scan, only FMC and MOS were called out as genuinely broken on the trailing year; DBA carried a "mildly negative" alpha1y as a softer version of the same pattern. This cycle, CTVA (-1.27) and MOO (-0.99) have both crossed into negative-alpha territory as well — both are only barely negative, but the count of names failing the horizon check has grown from two to five out of ten. ADM, NTR, DE, BG, and CF remain solidly positive on every horizon (all five above their 200-day with double-digit trailing-year returns and positive alpha) and are the cleaner half of the book this cycle.

• FMC: RSI 67.8 → 48.0 (-19.8), the largest move in the book — essentially the entire rally-cycle bounce given back; trailing-year figures (-70.16% 1y, -86.38 alpha) remain the weakest in the book.
• CTVA: RSI 64.3 → 51.1 (-13.2); alpha1y turned negative (-1.27), a new addition to the negative-alpha group.
• MOO: RSI 70.1 → 59.2 (-10.9); alpha1y also turned negative (-0.99), joining CTVA as a new addition.
• MOS: RSI 67.1 → 57.6 (-9.5), continuing to carry a negative trailing-year and alpha despite the cooldown.
• NTR: RSI 71.1 → 63.3 (-7.8); DE: RSI 68.3 → 60.8 (-7.5) — both still solidly positive on every horizon.
• DBA: RSI 58.7 → 56.0 (-2.7), continuing its mildly negative alpha1y pattern flagged last cycle.
• CF: RSI 60.6 → 56.9 (-3.7).
• ADM: RSI 60.0 → 64.5 (+4.5), the only name gaining pace this cycle; BG: RSI 56.6 → 59.4 (+2.8).
• The negative-alpha1y count widened from two names last cycle (FMC, MOS, with DBA mildly negative) to five this cycle (FMC, MOS, DBA, CTVA, MOO).

This cycle validates last scan's caution on FMC directly — the bounce that looked unconvincing given the broken trailing year has now round-tripped almost completely. Read the book in two groups: ADM, NTR, DE, BG, CF remain strong on every timeframe and are the cleaner half; MOS, FMC, DBA, CTVA, and MOO now all carry a negative alpha1y, though CTVA and MOO are only barely negative and shouldn't be read with the same weight as FMC's -86.38 or MOS's -41.43. The widening of this group is the more useful signal this cycle than any single name's RSI cooldown.

Tier A — RSI 55+ (7): ADM, NTR (thesis intact), DE, BG, MOO (alpha now negative), MOS (negative 1y and alpha persists), CF (thesis intact).

Tier B — Mid-book, RSI 45-55 (3): DBA (alpha negative), CTVA (alpha now negative), FMC (bounce round-tripped, weakest horizon in the book).

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200, volume): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-11 close — food-security.
• FMC news receipt (stale, fetched 2026-09-03, predates this week's move): latest.