All ten names lost RSI and all ten closed red on Friday — the first clean sweep in either direction this book has produced, and the second consecutive week of cooling after the late-August run. Only Deere finished the five sessions higher, at +1.22%; FMC fell 11.49%, Bunge 5.58% and CF 4.04%. Mosaic printed a down day Friday at -3.58% and now sits fractionally below its 200-day average. The month is still green for eight of ten names, so what happened this week is a giveback of a run, not a breakdown — but the giveback is now two weeks long and it is the whole book, not the weak half.

Numbers are the settled September 18 close for all 10 names. Friday was quarterly options expiry, so relative-volume readings are inflated — Bunge at 3.9 times average and ADM at 2.9 times on a down day are expiry flow as much as selling. The news receipts for Mosaic (pull completed August 5) and FMC (September 3) are both stale relative to this week, so no cause has been pulled for either name's decline. Comparison baseline is the September 11 scan.

The whole book moved one way. Every name lost RSI ground, every name closed lower on Friday, and nine of the ten finished the week down — Deere the sole exception at +1.22%. The declines cluster where the late-August rally was strongest: FMC lost 11.49%, Bunge 5.58%, CF 4.04% and Corteva 4.02%. Mosaic printed -3.58% on Friday and -2.82% on the week, closing at $24.48 against a 200-day average of $24.57 — fractionally under it for the first time in this book's recent history.

The month is what keeps the read from being a breakdown. Eight of ten names are still positive over 30 days: Deere +17.8%, Mosaic +10.12%, Nutrien +9.35%, CF +7.29%, ADM +5.47%, and the two agribusiness funds and Corteva in low single digits. Only the agriculture commodity fund (-0.49%) and FMC (-6.66%) are red on the month. That is the signature of a run being given back rather than a trend failing — and it is the same signature the desk called last week, now extended by a second week and broadened to every name.

The week's macro backdrop moved against this book, though nothing on file ties the two together. The Federal Reserve raised its main interest rate a quarter point on Wednesday, its first increase in three years, citing stubborn inflation, per CNBC on September 16. On the energy side, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was shut after the attack on it, and by mid-week Bloomberg reported Saudi Arabia moving to restore the line while CNBC reported it offering ship-to-ship transfers to keep crude moving — oil's spike began unwinding on Wednesday and Thursday. Nitrogen fertilizer economics track natural gas and energy costs closely, so an easing energy complex is a plausible frame for the fertilizer names' week. Nothing on file — no filing, no article, no news pull — makes that connection for these specific names, so the fertilizer declines stay unattributed.

FMC remains the one name broken on every window, and it got worse. It fell 11.49% on the week — the largest decline in the book by a factor of two — is down 72.88% over the trailing year with alpha of -87.90, sits 24.8% below its 200-day and 73.11% below its 52-week high. Its news pull completed September 3 and predates the entire move; nothing has been pulled for this week.

• All 10 names lost RSI, against 8 of 10 last week. This is the first clean sweep in this book's record.
• DBA: RSI 56.0 → 41.4 (-14.6), the largest decline; BG 59.4 → 46.2 (-13.2); MOO 59.2 → 46.5 (-12.7); FMC 48.0 → 37.2 (-10.8); ADM 64.5 → 54.1 (-10.4).
• CF: RSI 56.9 → 47.6 (-9.3); CTVA 51.1 → 42.0 (-9.1); NTR 63.3 → 54.7 (-8.6); MOS 57.6 → 50.2 (-7.4).
• DE: RSI 60.8 → 60.6 (-0.2), essentially unchanged and the only name green on the week; it is also the only name in the book still labelled an uptrend.
• Mosaic crossed fractionally below its 200-day average ($24.57) at a $24.48 close, having been above it last scan.
• The negative-alpha group held at five names — MOS (-43.48), FMC (-87.90), DBA (-11.06), CTVA (-1.05), MOO (-0.87) — the same five flagged last week. No new name failed the horizon check.
• No name in this book has a dated event in the desk's record this month. The first scheduled print is FMC on October 28, then ADM, Corteva and Mosaic on November 3, Bunge, CF and Nutrien on November 4, and Deere on a provider-estimated November 25.

Read the week against the month, not against the day. A 10-of-10 red Friday on quarterly expiry, with Bunge at 3.9 times average volume and ADM at 2.9 times, is flow as much as conviction — the volume is the calendar. The five-day tape is stronger evidence, and it says the late-August run has now given back two weeks in a row across the entire book.

What has not changed is the horizon. Eight of ten names remain above their 200-day, five carry positive trailing-year alpha, and the composition of both groups is identical to last week. Deere, Nutrien, ADM, CF and Bunge are still the half that passes every check; Mosaic, FMC, the agriculture fund, Corteva and the agribusiness fund are the half that does not, and among those five only FMC and Mosaic show damage large enough to matter — Corteva's alpha is -1.05 and the agribusiness fund's is -0.87, which is a rounding error, not a verdict.

One frame explicitly does not apply here. The desk's May food-security-cascade thesis was written for an earlier phase of the Iran war and no longer sits among the desk's active campaigns; it is history, and its old entry conditions are not re-armed by anything in this week's tape. Whatever the fertilizer and grain names do next, they do it on this week's evidence, not on a five-month-old rule.

Mosaic deserves its own line because it is where the two readings meet. It is up 10.12% on the month, down 28.46% over the trailing year with alpha of -43.48, and now sits fractionally below a 200-day average of $24.57. The month says the rally was real; the year says the name has badly lagged; the 200-day says the long trend is genuinely under test rather than intact. All three are true at once, and the 200-day is the one to watch.

Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.

Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 1 name: FMC (37.2), and it is oversold inside a broken trend rather than a discounted one — down 72.88% over the trailing year, 24.8% below its 200-day, with a news pull that predates the move by two weeks.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 9 names: DE (60.6), NTR (54.7), ADM (54.1), MOS (50.2), CF (47.6), MOO (46.5), BG (46.2), CTVA (42.0), DBA (41.4). The spread compressed sharply this week — last scan eight names sat above RSI 55, this week only Deere does.

• Does Mosaic reclaim its 200-day, or does the trailing-year alpha of -43.48 turn out to be the honest number?
• What drove a -11.49% week in FMC, with the last news pull two weeks older than the move?
• Does the easing oil complex show up in nitrogen fertilizer margins, or is the connection the desk cannot source also not there?

• Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, relative volume): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-18 close — food-security.
• Federal Reserve quarter-point hike, September 16: CNBC, "Fed delivers its first hike in 3 years" — 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844.
• Saudi pipeline restoration and rerouting: Bloomberg, "Oil holds drop as Saudi Arabia moves to restore vital pipeline", September 16 — 2026-09-16-bloomberg-oil-holds-drop-as-saudi-arabia-moves-to-restore-vital-pipeli-tlfzdrkjh6v400; CNBC, "Oil extends losses as Saudi Arabia reportedly offers ship-to-ship transfers", September 17 — 2026-09-17-cnbc-oil-extends-losses-as-saudi-arabia-reportedly-offers-ship-to-108364169.
• Mosaic news receipt (stale, pull completed 2026-08-05): latest.
• FMC news receipt (stale, pull completed 2026-09-03): latest.
• Scheduled prints: 2026-10-28-fmc-earnings, .../2026-11-03-mos-earnings.md, .../2026-11-04-cf-earnings.md, .../2026-11-04-ntr-earnings.md, .../2026-11-25-de-earnings.md (provider-estimated date).
• The May food-security-cascade frame is absent from the desk's current campaign register: ACTIVE (read 2026-09-18).
• Quarterly options expiry on September 18: 2026-09-17-market-brief.