Food Security Scan

Scan

Food Security Scan

Watchlists 1
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 39 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-23-food-security.md

Every one of the 10 names in this book lost RSI ground since the last scan, and every one closed red today — the cleanest sweep the desk has recorded here in either direction. Deere gave back most of its extension, falling 9.4 RSI points from 67.9 to 58.5, while CF Industries fell further into oversold territory despite reporting real, positive first-half earnings four days ago. Corteva now sits exactly at its 200-day average.

Numbers are the settled September 25 close for all 10 names, two trading sessions after the September 23 scan. Comparison baseline is the September 23 scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A clean sweep: all 10 names lost RSI ground and all 10 closed red today, the most uniform session the desk has recorded in this book
Leaders Deere (RSI 58.5, still the only name labeled uptrend despite a sharp cooling), DBA the agriculture commodity fund (48.9), Nutrien (41.1)
Laggards CF Industries (RSI 34.0, deepening into oversold despite positive earnings), FMC (35.2, worst on every window, still unexplained), Bunge (38.0)
The horizon check Mosaic, Bunge, and FMC remain below their 200-day; Corteva now sits exactly at the line (0.0%), the closest call in the book
Caveat Nutrien's news pull is fresh (today) and returns nothing new; CF's earnings report from September 19 has not stopped the stock's decline

What's Going On

Deere's extension unwound sharply. Two scans ago it climbed to RSI 67.9, near overbought; today it sits at 58.5, a 9.4-point decline, the largest in the book. It remains the only name here labeled uptrend and is still 18.5% above its 200-day with trailing-year alpha of +30.73, so the cooling reads as a breather inside an intact trend rather than a reversal. Its news receipt, last pulled September 4, carries nothing dated to this week — a September 2 price-target raise predates and does not explain the pullback.

CF Industries is the name where dated, positive news and price direction have diverged most sharply in this book. It reported first-half 2026 results on September 19 — net earnings of $1.34 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.18 billion, both real, dated, positive figures — and the stock has fallen anyway: RSI down 5.9 points to 34.0, the trailing week down 10.2%, now newly the most oversold name outside of the fertilizer group. It remains above its 200-day by 2.8%, though that cushion has narrowed sharply from 8.5% two scans ago, with alpha down to +10.61 from +22.67. The pullback-shaped read the desk applied two scans ago is eroding fast.

Corteva is now sitting exactly on its 200-day average — 0.0%, the tightest read in this book. Its trailing-year alpha stayed marginally negative at -0.16, essentially unchanged from -0.03 two scans ago. Its news receipt is the stalest in the book (last pulled July 31), so nothing explains why the stock has drifted down to this exact line.

Every other name in the book moved the same direction: Mosaic fell further below its 200-day to -6.3% from -0.8%, deepening a stuck condition that has now persisted for three straight scans without a reclaim; FMC continued its now-familiar deterioration, worse on every window than two scans ago with alpha at -88.32; and Bunge, Nutrien, Adm, and the two agriculture funds all lost ground in step.

What Changed Since Prior Scan

  • All 10 names lost RSI ground: MOS (-8.7, the largest), DE (-9.4, largest in absolute terms), CF (-5.9), CTVA (-5.1), MOO (-5.0), NTR (-7.9), BG (-3.4), ADM (-3.0), FMC (-2.4), DBA (-0.2).
  • All 10 names closed red today — a clean sweep matching the clean RSI decline, and a reversal from the "genuinely mixed" scan flagged two scans ago.
  • MOS: 200-day position worsened to -6.3% from -0.8%, still stuck below the line for a third straight scan.
  • CTVA: 200-day position moved to exactly 0.0% from a small positive gap — now the tightest read in the book.
  • FMC's alpha worsened further to -88.32 from -87.2 — a fourth consecutive scan of deterioration with no cause ever confirmed.
  • The below-200-day group held at three names (MOS, BG, FMC), with Corteva now bordering the line at 0.0%.

How To Read The Board

A clean sweep in one direction is the rarer and more informative read for this book, which has alternated between mixed sessions and directional ones over the last several scans. All 10 names losing RSI and closing red on the same two-session window argues for treating this as a book-wide pause rather than name-specific damage — except for CF and FMC, where the deterioration is deeper than a pause.

CF Industries is the name most worth separating from the rest. Real, dated, positive earnings four days before this scan did not stop a slide that has now cut its alpha nearly in half (from +22.67 to +10.61) and its 200-day cushion by two-thirds (from 8.5% to 2.8%). The pullback read the desk applied when CF first entered the oversold tier two scans ago is close to expiring — one more scan of this trajectory would put it below its 200-day.

FMC remains the book's one name broken on every window, now into a fourth consecutive scan of deterioration with no cause ever confirmed. Deere's cooling, by contrast, is the healthiest kind of red session in this book: a name still well above its 200-day with strongly positive alpha simply giving back an extended reading.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
DE $690.46 58.5 $682.33 +1.2% +0.95% +8.81% uptrend (cooling from extended; 18.5% above 200-day, alpha +30.73)
DBA $28.54 48.9 $28.88 -1.2% +1.39% -0.17% uptrend (above 200-day, alpha -10.88)
NTR $72.23 41.1 $77.33 -6.6% -6.3% -1.87% downtrend (above 200-day; alpha +7.0; thesis: intact)
MOS $23.01 40.7 $24.90 -7.6% -6.0% -4.76% downtrend (below 200-day, gap widened to -6.3%; alpha -51.08)
MOO $83.27 40.4 $86.01 -3.2% -1.62% -2.12% uptrend (above 200-day, alpha -3.2)
ADM $81.12 42.5 $84.43 -3.9% -4.77% +1.29% downtrend (above 200-day, alpha +15.61)
CTVA $78.52 38.1 $83.43 -5.9% -2.5% -5.26% basing (exactly at its 200-day; alpha -0.16)
BG $109.00 38.0 $117.86 -7.5% -5.69% -3.75% pullback (below 200-day, alpha +20.08)
FMC $9.58 35.2 $11.29 -15.2% -5.05% -13.54% downtrend (worst on every window: 1-year -71.1%, alpha -88.32, 28.1% below 200-day)
CF $114.67 34.0 $130.02 -11.8% -10.2% -8.77% pullback (newly deeper oversold despite Sept 19 earnings; 2.8% above 200-day, alpha +10.61)

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.

Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 4 names: CF (34.0, deep pullback with narrowing cushion), FMC (35.2, broken on every window), BG (38.0, below its 200-day), CTVA (38.1, sitting exactly at its 200-day).

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 6 names: DE (58.5), DBA (48.9), ADM (42.5), MOO (40.4), NTR (41.1), MOS (40.7).

Entry Zones

Stock Entry zone Condition
CF $115-130 (under its 20-day) Newly deeper oversold at RSI 34.0, still 2.8% above its 200-day, but the cushion has narrowed sharply from 8.5% two scans ago
BG $109-118 Still below its $115.60-area 200-day; alpha remains positive at +20.08
MOS $23-25 Stuck below its 200-day for a third straight scan; alpha -51.08 argues the long record does not support a bounce
CTVA current levels Sitting exactly at its 200-day — the next session decides which side it settles on
DE $682-690 Cooling from an extended reading, still the book's cleanest chart on trailing-year measures
FMC not a zone Worst reading on every window, deteriorating for a fourth consecutive scan, no cause on file

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
DE 🟡 Cooling from extended 🔍 Watch RSI down 9.4 points but still well above its 200-day with strong alpha
NTR, ADM, DBA, MOO 🟡 Book-wide pullback 🔍 Watch All above their 200-day; today's red session was uniform across the book
CF 🟠 Eroding pullback 🔍 Research Positive earnings four days ago have not stopped the slide; the 200-day cushion is close to gone
BG 🟠 Still below its 200-day 🔍 Watch Alpha still positive
MOS 🟠 Stuck below its 200-day 🔍 Watch Third straight scan without a reclaim; alpha deeply negative
CTVA 🟡 Sitting at its 200-day 🔍 Watch The closest call in the book; the next session settles it
FMC 🔴 Broken on every window ⚠️ Avoid Fourth consecutive scan of deterioration with no cause on file

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether CF's 200-day cushion closes entirely Narrowed from 8.5% to 2.8% in two scans despite real positive earnings
Which side Corteva settles on Sitting exactly at its 200-day (0.0%)
Whether Mosaic ever reclaims its 200-day Now three consecutive scans stuck below it, gap widening
Whether today's all-red session extends into a genuine trend break or was a two-session pause Every name in the book moved the same direction, an unusually clean signal for this book
A fresh news pull on FMC and Bunge Both remain among the stalest receipts in this book
Whether Deere's cooling continues or the extension resumes Down 9.4 RSI points; still the only uptrend-labeled name

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
Every name in the book lost RSI and closed red — a clean sweep in either direction is rare for this book Argues for a book-wide pause rather than name-specific damage, except where the deterioration is deeper (CF, FMC)
CF Industries kept falling despite real, positive, dated earnings The 200-day cushion that made this a clean pullback read is down to 2.8% from 8.5% in two scans
Corteva now sits exactly at its 200-day average The tightest read in the book; the next session settles which side it lands on

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Assuming positive earnings stop a slide CF's September 19 first-half results were genuinely strong and the stock kept falling anyway
Treating Deere's extension as a reason to expect a breakdown The 9.4-point RSI decline is a cooling inside an intact trend (still 18.5% above its 200-day), not a reversal

Open Questions

  • Does CF's 200-day cushion hold, or does the stock cross below it next scan?
  • Which side does Corteva settle on from exactly at its 200-day?
  • What has driven FMC's four-scan deterioration, with every news pull on file predating the decline?

Sources

  • Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — food-security.
  • CF Industries news receipt (pull completed 2026-09-19; H1 2026 net earnings $1.34B, adjusted EBITDA $2.18B): latest.
  • Deere news receipt (stale, last completed pull 2026-09-04; Sept 2 item predates the pullback): latest.
  • Corteva news receipt (stale, last completed pull 2026-07-31): latest.
  • Nutrien news receipt (fresh pull 2026-09-25, nothing new dated to this week): latest.
  • Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-23-food-security.
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.