Food Security Scan
Food Security Scan
Corteva completed the spin-off of its seed business as Vylor on October 1 (a pro rata in-kind dividend to holders of record on September 24, per Corteva's 8-K), so Corteva (CTVA) now trades as the crop-protection company and its price history is being rebuilt; it is excluded from every comparison below. For the other nine names the week was a rebound from a clean red sweep: seven of nine closed green, Deere is still the only name in an uptrend (16.9% above its 200-day, RSI 56), and fertilizer remains the weak corner: Mosaic (-14% vs its 200-day), FMC (-36.1%, RSI 27.1) and Nutrien (just under the line at -0.4%).
Numbers are the settled October 2 close for all 10 names (Friday), one week after the September 25 scan. CTVA's summary carries a distribution stamp and no history windows because of the October 1 spin-off; this scan states no price change, RSI or trailing figure for it. Nine names are compared. Comparison baseline is the September 25 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Seven of nine comparable names closed green, but five of nine are below their 200-day and the month is red for most (CF, NTR, MOS, BG, FMC all 12% or worse on 30 days) |
| Leaders | Deere (RSI 56, -4.74% from its high, alpha 33.75), the agriculture fund DBA (43.4), ADM (42.8) |
| Laggards | FMC (RSI 27.1, the only name under 30; -73.15% year), Mosaic (31.5), Bunge (34.9), the agriculture ETF MOO (34.7), CF Industries (35.6) |
| The horizon check | Under the 200-day: Nutrien (-0.4%), Mosaic, Bunge, FMC, MOO (-0.3%). Negative alpha: Mosaic (-54.39), FMC (-88.15), DBA (-9.27), MOO (-4.41) |
| Corteva | Spin-off completed October 1: the distribution is a corporate action, not a price collapse; no change figures are quoted for CTVA |
| Caveat | FMC's and Mosaic's declines are cause unknown (FMC's news pull dates to September 3, Deere's to September 4, so neither covers recent moves). News was re-pulled 2026-10-03 for Mosaic, Nutrien, CF, ADM, Bunge and DBA with no item on an October 2 move; FMC's and Deere's receipts predate the moves, so news was not pulled for those. The stock-event files were checked (only Nike's October 1 earnings and Corteva's October 1 spin-off are filed), and the desk's October 1-2 article and X captures were searched by company name. Moves below with no stated cause are therefore cause unknown, not cause absent. |
What's Going On
Corteva first. On October 1 the company distributed its seed business to shareholders as Vylor Inc. (VYLR), per its filed 8-K and the October 1 event file. The raw CTVA price series steps down because of that distribution; the desk's data layer marks the row as a distribution and withholds its history windows, so no return or RSI is quoted here. Whatever Corteva does from here is a new series for the crop-protection company; the old chart cannot be compared to it. Vylor itself is not in this list.
Deere is the one clean name: 16.9% above its 200-day, 48.76% trailing year, alpha 33.75, and -4.74% from its 52-week high. It gained 2.96% on Friday, but its news pull is from September 4, so the day is cause unknown. It is the book's only uptrend label.
Fertilizer is where the book is still broken or breaking. FMC sits at RSI 27.1, 36.1% under its 200-day, with a -73.15% trailing year, alpha -88.15 and a 30-day change of -36.68%; this is the worst name on every window and damage rather than discount, with no cause on file (news not pulled for this move, last pull September 3; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked). Mosaic is 14% under its line with alpha -54.39 and moved -2.23% on Friday against a mostly green group. CF Industries (2.2% above its 200-day, 30-day change -17.42%) and Nutrien (-0.4%) are the two where a trend is still being tested: both carry positive alpha (13.01 and 2.25) and an intact thesis rating.
The grain traders and the funds are in the middle: ADM is 8.1% above its 200-day with alpha 21.1; Bunge is 8.1% under its line with alpha 13.54; DBA (3.9% above its line, -4.44% from its high) is the commodity fund and shows the group is not collapsing, only the fertilizer and agribusiness-equity half.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- Corteva: spin-off of Vylor completed October 1; CTVA is out of all comparisons because its history windows are deliberately null. On September 25 it was sitting exactly on its 200-day.
- Breadth: seven of nine comparable names green today versus an all-red session on September 25.
- Below the 200-day: five of nine (NTR, MOS, BG, FMC, MOO) versus three (MOS, BG, FMC) on September 25; Nutrien and MOO slipped under the line while CF's cushion shrank to 2.2%.
- Negative alpha: four (MOS, FMC, DBA, MOO).
- Deere's RSI is 56, near where it was on September 25 (58.5), after a 2.96% Friday.
How To Read The Board
Do not read Corteva's chart as a crash. The distribution of Vylor shares is a corporate action; the data layer withholds the comparison windows on purpose. The right tape read for CTVA is 'spin-off completed, new series begins', and any entry thinking waits for a few weeks of clean post-spin bars.
For the other nine, the long layer splits the book in two. Deere, ADM and CF still have positive alpha and a trailing year above 25%; the fertilizer and fund names (Mosaic, FMC, DBA, MOO) do not. A low RSI in Mosaic or FMC is damage; a low RSI in CF or Nutrien (RSI 35.6, 36.5) is a pullback in a trend that still carries a positive alpha.
Source limits: price and RSI against moving averages only; no crop-price, fertilizer-price or weather data. Several news pulls in this book are weeks old, which is stated where it matters.
Price Table
Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Tape cells are live values for the October 2 close; the Signal column is the desk's label.
| Stock | As of | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | 2026-10-02 | 687 | 56 | 684.42 | 0.4 | -0.5 | -1.63 | 48.76 | 16.9 | 🟢 uptrend; intact |
| DBA | 2026-10-02 | 28.21 | 43.4 | 28.62 | -1.4 | -1.16 | -3.62 | 5.73 | 3.9 | 🟡 basing; negative alpha |
| ADM | 2026-10-02 | 80.45 | 42.8 | 83.53 | -3.7 | -0.83 | -5.77 | 36.1 | 8.1 | 🟡 basing; positive alpha |
| NTR | 2026-10-02 | 70.06 | 36.5 | 75.6 | -7.3 | -3 | -12.74 | 17.26 | -0.4 | 🟡 at 200-day; thesis intact |
| CF | 2026-10-02 | 115.01 | 35.6 | 125.39 | -8.3 | 0.3 | -17.42 | 28.02 | 2.2 | 🟡 pullback; thesis intact; thin 200-day cushion |
| BG | 2026-10-02 | 106.72 | 34.9 | 114.94 | -7.2 | -2.09 | -13.14 | 28.55 | -8.1 | 🟡 under 200-day; positive alpha |
| MOO | 2026-10-02 | 81.34 | 34.7 | 84.68 | -3.9 | -2.32 | -8.45 | 10.59 | -0.3 | 🟡 basing; just under 200-day |
| MOS | 2026-10-02 | 21.07 | 31.5 | 24.16 | -12.8 | -8.43 | -18.27 | -39.38 | -14 | 🔴 under 200-day; negative alpha |
| FMC | 2026-10-02 | 8.44 | 27.1 | 10.45 | -19.2 | -11.9 | -36.68 | -73.15 | -36.1 | 🔴 collapse; oversold |
| CTVA | 2026-10-02 | spin-off | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | spin-off completed Oct 1 (Vylor); history windows withheld |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 6 names: FMC (27.1), Mosaic (31.5), MOO (34.7), Bunge (34.9), CF Industries (35.6), Nutrien (36.5).
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 3 names: Deere (56), DBA (43.4), ADM (42.8).
Corteva: no tier; RSI is withheld for the spin-off.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| CF, NTR | Their 200-day lines (CF 2.2% above, NTR -0.4%) | Positive alpha, intact thesis; the 200-day is the test |
| DE | Pullback toward its 20-day (684.42) | Only uptrend; no zone from here at RSI 56 |
| ADM, BG | 20-days (83.53, 114.94) | Positive alpha; ADM is above its 200-day, Bunge under |
| MOS, FMC | None | Negative alpha, under the 200-day; damage not discount |
| CTVA | None yet | Spin-off completed; wait for post-spin bars |
| DBA, MOO | No single zone | Funds; DBA basing, MOO just under its 200-day |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| DE | 🟢 Uptrend | 🔒 Hold | Only name above its 200-day with strength |
| CF, NTR, ADM | 🟡 Pullback / basing | 🔍 Watch | Positive alpha; CF's 200-day cushion is thin |
| BG | 🟡 Under 200-day | 🔍 Watch | Positive alpha, near oversold |
| MOS, FMC | 🔴 Broken chart | ❌ Don't buy | Negative alpha; FMC is the worst on every window |
| DBA, MOO | 🟡 Funds | 🔍 Watch | Negative alpha; basing |
| CTVA | 🟡 Spin-off | 🔍 Watch | Vylor spun off October 1; no history to read yet |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Corteva's first clean post-spin weeks | The chart restarts; the old series cannot be compared |
| CF Industries holding its 200-day (+2.2%) | The cushion has been shrinking; a break would end the pullback label |
| Nutrien reclaiming its line (-0.4%) | Intact thesis, just under |
| Mosaic and FMC | Both negative on every long window; cause unknown for the declines |
| Deere at RSI 56 | The one name keeping the book's strength label |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-02 close — food-security.
- Cause checks: news receipts under stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json
(all fetched on or before 2026-10-01), stock-event files inresearch/stock-events/` (2026-10-01-nke-earnings, 2026-10-01-vylr-spinoff), capture articles in articles. - Tradability: _securities.
- Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-25-food-security.
Related
8 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.