Food Security Scan

Scan

Food Security Scan

Watchlists 1
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 33 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-25-food-security.md

Corteva completed the spin-off of its seed business as Vylor on October 1 (a pro rata in-kind dividend to holders of record on September 24, per Corteva's 8-K), so Corteva (CTVA) now trades as the crop-protection company and its price history is being rebuilt; it is excluded from every comparison below. For the other nine names the week was a rebound from a clean red sweep: seven of nine closed green, Deere is still the only name in an uptrend (16.9% above its 200-day, RSI 56), and fertilizer remains the weak corner: Mosaic (-14% vs its 200-day), FMC (-36.1%, RSI 27.1) and Nutrien (just under the line at -0.4%).

Numbers are the settled October 2 close for all 10 names (Friday), one week after the September 25 scan. CTVA's summary carries a distribution stamp and no history windows because of the October 1 spin-off; this scan states no price change, RSI or trailing figure for it. Nine names are compared. Comparison baseline is the September 25 scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Seven of nine comparable names closed green, but five of nine are below their 200-day and the month is red for most (CF, NTR, MOS, BG, FMC all 12% or worse on 30 days)
Leaders Deere (RSI 56, -4.74% from its high, alpha 33.75), the agriculture fund DBA (43.4), ADM (42.8)
Laggards FMC (RSI 27.1, the only name under 30; -73.15% year), Mosaic (31.5), Bunge (34.9), the agriculture ETF MOO (34.7), CF Industries (35.6)
The horizon check Under the 200-day: Nutrien (-0.4%), Mosaic, Bunge, FMC, MOO (-0.3%). Negative alpha: Mosaic (-54.39), FMC (-88.15), DBA (-9.27), MOO (-4.41)
Corteva Spin-off completed October 1: the distribution is a corporate action, not a price collapse; no change figures are quoted for CTVA
Caveat FMC's and Mosaic's declines are cause unknown (FMC's news pull dates to September 3, Deere's to September 4, so neither covers recent moves). News was re-pulled 2026-10-03 for Mosaic, Nutrien, CF, ADM, Bunge and DBA with no item on an October 2 move; FMC's and Deere's receipts predate the moves, so news was not pulled for those. The stock-event files were checked (only Nike's October 1 earnings and Corteva's October 1 spin-off are filed), and the desk's October 1-2 article and X captures were searched by company name. Moves below with no stated cause are therefore cause unknown, not cause absent.

What's Going On

Corteva first. On October 1 the company distributed its seed business to shareholders as Vylor Inc. (VYLR), per its filed 8-K and the October 1 event file. The raw CTVA price series steps down because of that distribution; the desk's data layer marks the row as a distribution and withholds its history windows, so no return or RSI is quoted here. Whatever Corteva does from here is a new series for the crop-protection company; the old chart cannot be compared to it. Vylor itself is not in this list.

Deere is the one clean name: 16.9% above its 200-day, 48.76% trailing year, alpha 33.75, and -4.74% from its 52-week high. It gained 2.96% on Friday, but its news pull is from September 4, so the day is cause unknown. It is the book's only uptrend label.

Fertilizer is where the book is still broken or breaking. FMC sits at RSI 27.1, 36.1% under its 200-day, with a -73.15% trailing year, alpha -88.15 and a 30-day change of -36.68%; this is the worst name on every window and damage rather than discount, with no cause on file (news not pulled for this move, last pull September 3; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked). Mosaic is 14% under its line with alpha -54.39 and moved -2.23% on Friday against a mostly green group. CF Industries (2.2% above its 200-day, 30-day change -17.42%) and Nutrien (-0.4%) are the two where a trend is still being tested: both carry positive alpha (13.01 and 2.25) and an intact thesis rating.

The grain traders and the funds are in the middle: ADM is 8.1% above its 200-day with alpha 21.1; Bunge is 8.1% under its line with alpha 13.54; DBA (3.9% above its line, -4.44% from its high) is the commodity fund and shows the group is not collapsing, only the fertilizer and agribusiness-equity half.

What Changed Since Prior Scan

  • Corteva: spin-off of Vylor completed October 1; CTVA is out of all comparisons because its history windows are deliberately null. On September 25 it was sitting exactly on its 200-day.
  • Breadth: seven of nine comparable names green today versus an all-red session on September 25.
  • Below the 200-day: five of nine (NTR, MOS, BG, FMC, MOO) versus three (MOS, BG, FMC) on September 25; Nutrien and MOO slipped under the line while CF's cushion shrank to 2.2%.
  • Negative alpha: four (MOS, FMC, DBA, MOO).
  • Deere's RSI is 56, near where it was on September 25 (58.5), after a 2.96% Friday.

How To Read The Board

Do not read Corteva's chart as a crash. The distribution of Vylor shares is a corporate action; the data layer withholds the comparison windows on purpose. The right tape read for CTVA is 'spin-off completed, new series begins', and any entry thinking waits for a few weeks of clean post-spin bars.

For the other nine, the long layer splits the book in two. Deere, ADM and CF still have positive alpha and a trailing year above 25%; the fertilizer and fund names (Mosaic, FMC, DBA, MOO) do not. A low RSI in Mosaic or FMC is damage; a low RSI in CF or Nutrien (RSI 35.6, 36.5) is a pullback in a trend that still carries a positive alpha.

Source limits: price and RSI against moving averages only; no crop-price, fertilizer-price or weather data. Several news pulls in this book are weeks old, which is stated where it matters.

Price Table

Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Tape cells are live values for the October 2 close; the Signal column is the desk's label.

Stock As of Price ($) RSI SMA20 ($) vs SMA20 (%) 7D (%) 30D (%) 1Y (%) vs SMA200 (%) Signal
DE 2026-10-02 687 56 684.42 0.4 -0.5 -1.63 48.76 16.9 🟢 uptrend; intact
DBA 2026-10-02 28.21 43.4 28.62 -1.4 -1.16 -3.62 5.73 3.9 🟡 basing; negative alpha
ADM 2026-10-02 80.45 42.8 83.53 -3.7 -0.83 -5.77 36.1 8.1 🟡 basing; positive alpha
NTR 2026-10-02 70.06 36.5 75.6 -7.3 -3 -12.74 17.26 -0.4 🟡 at 200-day; thesis intact
CF 2026-10-02 115.01 35.6 125.39 -8.3 0.3 -17.42 28.02 2.2 🟡 pullback; thesis intact; thin 200-day cushion
BG 2026-10-02 106.72 34.9 114.94 -7.2 -2.09 -13.14 28.55 -8.1 🟡 under 200-day; positive alpha
MOO 2026-10-02 81.34 34.7 84.68 -3.9 -2.32 -8.45 10.59 -0.3 🟡 basing; just under 200-day
MOS 2026-10-02 21.07 31.5 24.16 -12.8 -8.43 -18.27 -39.38 -14 🔴 under 200-day; negative alpha
FMC 2026-10-02 8.44 27.1 10.45 -19.2 -11.9 -36.68 -73.15 -36.1 🔴 collapse; oversold
CTVA 2026-10-02 spin-off n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a spin-off completed Oct 1 (Vylor); history windows withheld

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.

Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 6 names: FMC (27.1), Mosaic (31.5), MOO (34.7), Bunge (34.9), CF Industries (35.6), Nutrien (36.5).

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 3 names: Deere (56), DBA (43.4), ADM (42.8).

Corteva: no tier; RSI is withheld for the spin-off.

Entry Zones

Stock Entry zone Thesis
CF, NTR Their 200-day lines (CF 2.2% above, NTR -0.4%) Positive alpha, intact thesis; the 200-day is the test
DE Pullback toward its 20-day (684.42) Only uptrend; no zone from here at RSI 56
ADM, BG 20-days (83.53, 114.94) Positive alpha; ADM is above its 200-day, Bunge under
MOS, FMC None Negative alpha, under the 200-day; damage not discount
CTVA None yet Spin-off completed; wait for post-spin bars
DBA, MOO No single zone Funds; DBA basing, MOO just under its 200-day

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
DE 🟢 Uptrend 🔒 Hold Only name above its 200-day with strength
CF, NTR, ADM 🟡 Pullback / basing 🔍 Watch Positive alpha; CF's 200-day cushion is thin
BG 🟡 Under 200-day 🔍 Watch Positive alpha, near oversold
MOS, FMC 🔴 Broken chart ❌ Don't buy Negative alpha; FMC is the worst on every window
DBA, MOO 🟡 Funds 🔍 Watch Negative alpha; basing
CTVA 🟡 Spin-off 🔍 Watch Vylor spun off October 1; no history to read yet

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Corteva's first clean post-spin weeks The chart restarts; the old series cannot be compared
CF Industries holding its 200-day (+2.2%) The cushion has been shrinking; a break would end the pullback label
Nutrien reclaiming its line (-0.4%) Intact thesis, just under
Mosaic and FMC Both negative on every long window; cause unknown for the declines
Deere at RSI 56 The one name keeping the book's strength label

Sources

  • Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-02 close — food-security.
  • Cause checks: news receipts under stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json(all fetched on or before 2026-10-01), stock-event files inresearch/stock-events/` (2026-10-01-nke-earnings, 2026-10-01-vylr-spinoff), capture articles in articles.
  • Tradability: _securities.
  • Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-25-food-security.
8 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.