Food Security Scan
Food Security Scan
The agriculture book was the one board that rose in a week that crushed AI hardware: 7 of 11 names gained, and the fertilizer breakdown of October 9 reversed. CF Industries (+8.35%) and Nutrien (+5.6%) both climbed back over their 200-days, Deere and Archer-Daniels-Midland widened their cushions, and five of nine names with a 200-day are now above it, from three. FMC is the exception that proves the sorting: it fell 32.22% to RSI 17.1 after preannouncing a collapse in third-quarter results, and Mosaic and Bunge remain under their lines.
Numbers are the settled October 16 close for all 11 names (Friday); 7D is the five sessions since the October 9 close. Corteva (CTVA) and Vylor (VYLR) have 12 bars of post-spin history, so they carry a week's change but no RSI, moving averages or trailing year, and sit outside the RSI tiers and the 200-day counts. Nine names are fully comparable. Comparison baseline is the October 9 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 7 of 11 up on the week (from 3) and 3 of 11 up on Friday (from 1); 5 of 9 comparable names above their 200-day (from 3); 6 of 9 still under their 20-day; 5 of 9 with negative trailing-year alpha (unchanged count, different names) |
| Leaders | CF Industries (RSI 52.5, +8.35% week), Archer-Daniels-Midland (51.5), Nutrien (48.6, +5.6%), the agriculture fund DBA (44.7), the agriculture equity ETF MOO (43.7) |
| Laggards | FMC (RSI 17.1, -32.22% week), Mosaic (26.4, -24.08% month), Deere and Bunge (42.5 each, still in pullback) |
| The horizon check | Above the 200-day: ADM (+9.3%), Deere (+7.5%), CF (+5.6%), DBA (+3.5%), Nutrien (+0.8%). Under it: Mosaic (-22.4%), FMC (-56.3%), Bunge (-9.2%), MOO (-0.3%). Positive alpha: Nutrien (10.77, new), CF (30.04), Deere (24.87), ADM (15.8). Negative: Mosaic (-51.58), FMC (-96.65), DBA (-9.92), Bunge (-4.19, new), MOO (-2.69) |
| Caveat | The rise is a tape fact with no cause on file. The October 13 market brief counted the list 9 of 11 up that day and said no cause was on file; news pulled for the fertilizer and grain names on October 15 and 16 carries only quote pages and analyst-target items, no event for this list is dated October 12 through 16, and no capture names these companies. FMC's drop is dated: it preannounced third-quarter revenue of $65-125 million against an adjusted EBITDA loss of $510-565 million on October 15 (StockAnalysis, via the October 15 market brief). Friday's moves (Nutrien +2.41%, Deere -1.35%) are cause not checked |
What's Going On
The fertilizer names reversed the October 9 breakdown. Nutrien closed at 71.26 (RSI 48.6), 0.8% above its 200-day (70.71) after closing 4.3% under it a week ago, and above the 69 stop level that the October briefs carried for it; its trailing-year alpha turned positive (10.77) on a +26.3% year and its thesis rating is intact. CF Industries rose 8.35% to 120.85, 5.6% above its 200-day (114.42) from 1.6% under, on a +45.57% year with alpha 30.04. Both are still down on the 30-day window (CF -8.44%, Nutrien -8.26%), so the repair is one week old. Mosaic gained only 0.43% and remains 22.4% under its line (24.27) on a -36.05% year; it left capitulation (RSI 26.4, from 23.1) without repairing anything. A Jefferies target raise on Nutrien to $71 from $63, Hold, appears in an October 15 aggregator item and is not tied to the move.
Grain traders and Deere recovered inside intact or near-intact trends. Archer-Daniels-Midland rose 3.4% to 9.3% above its 200-day (75.61) in a 23-week base with an 88.75 pivot; Deere rose 3.37% to 7.5% above its line (596.86), up from 4.8%, on a +40.4% year, with the FTC and USDA inquiry of October 7 still the dated overhang. Bunge rose 3.32% and is 9.2% under its line (116.96), narrowing from 11.8%, but its alpha slid to -4.19 on a +11.34% year.
FMC is the one dated event and a business-quality veto. It fell 32.22% on the week to 5.66 (RSI 17.1), 56.3% under its 200-day on a -81.12% year with alpha -96.65 and 81.71% off its high. The drop came on Thursday, October 15 (-30.53% on 6.81 times volume, the day of the preannouncement); Friday added 0.71% on 2.54 times volume. Nothing on the long windows makes it a discount.
Corteva and Vylor, the October 1 spin-off pair, slipped on the week (-2.72% and -1.33%) after leading last week. Twelve bars is still too little history for RSI, moving averages or a trailing year.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- Breadth: 7 of 11 up on the week, versus 3 (Corteva, Vylor and DBA). Friday was 3 green (Nutrien, CF Industries, FMC), versus 1.
- Above the 200-day: five of nine (NTR, CF, DE, ADM, DBA), versus three. CF Industries and Nutrien reclaimed their lines; Bunge, Mosaic, FMC and MOO remain under.
- Alpha: Nutrien turned positive (10.77) and Bunge turned negative (-4.19); five names are negative either way.
- Capitulation: FMC (17.1) replaces Mosaic (23.1, now 26.4) as the only name under RSI 25.
- Leadership: CF Industries (RSI 52.5) and ADM (51.5) top the board; Deere's RSI is 42.5, up from 33.3. Corteva and Vylor gave back last week's gains.
- Under the 20-day: six of nine, versus nine of nine.
How To Read The Board
This list was framed as an energy-shock-to-fertilizer play from an earlier phase of the Iran war; its notes date to May, so the board is read on price, not on the old thesis. One data point on the frame: the September CPI, released October 14, showed food unchanged on the month with gasoline up 9.1% (Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the October 14 market brief). That does not confirm fuel costs reaching groceries, and one print proves nothing either way. Brent touched $110 on Friday (Bloomberg, October 16); no source ties the fertilizer rally to it.
On the long layer, ADM, Deere, CF and Nutrien carry positive alpha and sit above their lines: intact trends, with Nutrien's cushion under 1%. Bunge is under its line with a +11.34% year and slightly negative alpha. Mosaic and FMC are broken on every window, and DBA and MOO are funds basing at their lines with slightly negative alpha. A low RSI in Mosaic or FMC is damage, not discount.
Source limits: price and RSI against moving averages only; no crop-price, fertilizer-price or weather data. Most news pulls here are one to two days old and carry only quote pages.
Price Table
Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first; Corteva and Vylor follow because they have no RSI yet. Tape cells are live values for the October 16 close; the Signal column is a read of the tape.
| Stock | As of | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | 2026-10-16 | 120.85 | 52.5 | 116.85 | 3.4 | 8.35 | -8.44 | 45.57 | 5.6 | 🟢 reclaimed 200-day; thesis intact; best week in the book |
| ADM | 2026-10-16 | 82.61 | 51.5 | 81.56 | 1.3 | 3.4 | -2.81 | 31.34 | 9.3 | 🟢 above 200-day; positive alpha; basing |
| NTR | 2026-10-16 | 71.26 | 48.6 | 71.08 | 0.2 | 5.6 | -8.26 | 26.3 | 0.8 | 🟢 reclaimed 200-day; alpha turned positive; thesis intact |
| DBA | 2026-10-16 | 28.23 | 44.7 | 28.4 | -0.6 | -0.35 | -2.05 | 5.61 | 3.5 | 🟡 basing; above 200-day; negative alpha |
| MOO | 2026-10-16 | 81.79 | 43.7 | 82.24 | -0.5 | 1.65 | -4.1 | 12.84 | -0.3 | 🟡 basing; on its 200-day; negative alpha |
| DE | 2026-10-16 | 641.86 | 42.5 | 669.98 | -4.2 | 3.37 | -4.12 | 40.4 | 7.5 | 🟡 above 200-day; positive alpha; pullback |
| BG | 2026-10-16 | 106.14 | 42.5 | 107.77 | -1.5 | 3.32 | -9.38 | 11.34 | -9.2 | 🟡 under 200-day; alpha turned negative |
| MOS | 2026-10-16 | 18.82 | 26.4 | 21.21 | -11.3 | 0.43 | -24.08 | -36.05 | -22.4 | 🔴 collapse; negative alpha; RSI under 30 |
| FMC | 2026-10-16 | 5.66 | 17.1 | 8.73 | -35.1 | -32.22 | -47.59 | -81.12 | -56.3 | 🔴 capitulation; business-quality veto |
| CTVA | 2026-10-16 | 12.88 | n/a | n/a | n/a | -2.72 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 🟡 post-spin series; no RSI yet |
| VYLR | 2026-10-16 | 72.18 | n/a | n/a | n/a | -1.33 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 🟡 new listing (Corteva seed spin-off); no RSI yet |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): FMC (17.1). Business-quality veto: -81.12% year, alpha -96.65.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 1 name: MOS (26.4), under its 200-day with alpha -51.58: damage, not discount.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 7 names: CF Industries (52.5), ADM (51.5), Nutrien (48.6), DBA (44.7), MOO (43.7), Deere (42.5), Bunge (42.5).
Corteva and Vylor: no tier; too little post-spin history for RSI.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| NTR | A hold of the 69.87 shelf and the 200-day (70.71); 82.55 pivot of a 9-week base above | Thesis intact, alpha turned positive; the reclaim is one week old; report scheduled November 4 |
| CF | A hold of the 118.39 shelf, with the 200-day (114.42) below | Thesis intact, +45.57% year, alpha 30.04; report scheduled November 4 |
| ADM | A hold of the 81.15 shelf; 200-day 75.61; 88.75 pivot of a 23-week base | The cleanest long-window reading; report scheduled November 3 |
| DE | A hold of the 612.1 shelf and the 200-day (596.86); 721.22 pivot of a 13-week base | +40.4% year, alpha 24.87; the FTC and USDA inquiry is the overhang |
| BG | A reclaim of its 200-day (116.96); 95.04 shelf below | Alpha just turned negative; report scheduled October 29 |
| DBA, MOO | DBA: 29.52 pivot over its 200-day (27.27); MOO: 89.3 pivot, 200-day 82 | Funds basing 24 weeks; negative alpha, no single-name zone |
| MOS, FMC, CTVA, VYLR | None | Negative alpha on every long window (Mosaic, FMC); new post-spin series (Corteva, Vylor) |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADM | 🟢 Above the line, positive alpha | 🔒 Hold | +9.3% over the 200-day; basing |
| CF, NTR, DE | 🟢 Above the line, thesis intact or positive alpha | 🔍 Watch | CF and Nutrien reclaimed their lines this week; Deere is a pullback in an intact trend |
| BG | 🟡 Under the line, alpha slipped | 🔍 Watch | 9.2% under the line; needs the 116.96 reclaim |
| DBA, MOO | 🟡 Funds basing | 🔍 Watch | Negative alpha; both sit on their 200-days |
| MOS | 🔴 Broken chart | ❌ Don't buy | 22.4% under the line; out of capitulation without repair |
| FMC | 🔴 Quality veto | ❌ Don't buy | Preannounced collapse in Q3 results; -81.12% year |
| CTVA, VYLR | 🟡 New series | 🔍 Watch | Down 2.72% and 1.33% on the week; 12 bars of history |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Nutrien at its 200-day (70.71) | The reclaim is a week old and 0.8% deep; a close back under it voids the repair |
| CF Industries at 114.42 and the 118.39 shelf | Thesis intact; the line and the shelf mark the flag |
| Deere at its 200-day (596.86) | 7.5% cushion with the FTC and USDA inquiry unresolved |
| Mosaic below RSI 30 | Out of capitulation without a base; the 200-day is 24.27 |
| Scheduled reports: Bunge and FMC October 29, ADM and Mosaic November 3, Nutrien and CF November 4 (provider estimates) | First dated tests for the fertilizer and grain names; FMC's date is not firm across providers |
| Whether the broad gain has a cause | 7 of 11 rose and nothing on file explains it; a cause would change how long it can last |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, relative volume, support shelves, base pivots): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-16 close — food-security.
- FMC preannouncement and move: StockAnalysis, October 15 (news check latest, fetched 2026-10-16 UTC) and the October 15 market brief — 2026-10-15-market-brief.
- October 13 lane read (9 of 11 up, no cause on file): 2026-10-13-market-brief. September CPI, food unchanged and gasoline +9.1%: Bureau of Labor Statistics, as reported in 2026-10-14-market-brief.
- Nutrien target item: ad-hoc-news (Jefferies), October 15 (news check latest). Deere inquiry: Bloomberg, October 7 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/ftc-usda-seek-comment-on-farm-equipment-market-practices.
- Brent: Bloomberg, October 16 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/oil-tops-110-for-first-time-since-may-as-supply-risk-grows (capture 2026-10-16-bloomberg-brent-oil-taps-110-for-first-time-since-may-as-risks-swirl-tn0e2pkgzaks00).
- Cause checks for October 12-16: news checks under stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json
(NTR 2026-10-15; MOS, CF, ADM, BG, DBA, FMC 2026-10-16 UTC; DE 2026-10-09; MOO and VYLR have none),research/stock-events/(no event for this list dated 2026-10-12 through 2026-10-16), and articles,tweets/` searched by company name (no item). - List history: watchlist description (energy-shock cascade framing; notes dated May 2026) — food-security.
- Scheduled reports:
research/stock-events/rows for BG, FMC, ADM, MOS, NTR, CF (provider estimates). - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-10-09-food-security.
Related
8 eventsSource links
Tweets, videos, filings, articles, and source pages tied to this read.