Food Security Scan
Food Security Scan
The agriculture book sold off on Friday: 10 of 11 names closed red, with fertilizer and Deere falling on above-normal volume, and no cause on file. Deere lost 9.62% on the week, including its drop when the FTC and USDA opened an inquiry into farm-equipment market practices (Bloomberg, October 7), and its cushion over the 200-day shrank from 16.9% to 4.8%. Mosaic fell into capitulation (RSI 23.1), CF Industries slipped under its 200-day, and Nutrien closed at $67.48, under its 200-day and the $69 stop level the daily briefs have carried. Corteva and its seed spin-off Vylor led the week (+11.07% and +8.76% on their new post-spin price series); the agriculture fund DBA was the only other name up.
Numbers are the settled October 9 close for all 11 names (Friday), one week after the October 2 scan. Vylor (VYLR) joined the list after Corteva's October 1 spin-off. Both Corteva and Vylor have seven bars of post-spin history, so they carry a week's change but no RSI, moving averages or trailing year; neither is in the RSI tiers or the 200-day counts. Nine names are fully comparable. Comparison baseline is the October 2 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 10 of 11 red on Friday; none of the nine comparable names is above its 20-day; six of nine below their 200-day (from five); five with negative trailing-year alpha (from four) |
| Leaders | ADM (RSI 42.4, 6.5% above its 200-day, alpha 14.3), the agriculture fund DBA (46.8, basing), Vylor (+8.76% week, too new for RSI) |
| Laggards | Mosaic (RSI 23.1, capitulation, -28.5% month), FMC (31, -72.05% year), Nutrien (31.5), CF Industries (31.6), Bunge (32.4), Deere (33.3) |
| The horizon check | Above the 200-day: Deere (4.8%), ADM (6.5%), DBA (4.2%). Below: Nutrien, Mosaic, CF (new, -1.6%), Bunge, FMC, the agriculture equity ETF MOO. Negative alpha: Nutrien (new, -5.58), Mosaic (-59.96), FMC (-88.06), DBA (-9.06), MOO (-5.59) |
| Caveat | Deere's week has a dated cause: on October 7 Deere and other farm-equipment makers plunged after the FTC and USDA launched an inquiry into market practices, including potential anticompetitive conduct (Bloomberg). Friday's broad decline has no cause on file. News checks for Nutrien, Mosaic, CF, ADM, Bunge and DBA were pulled October 8, before the move; Deere's and FMC's date to early September, so news was not pulled for their moves. No articles or posts dated October 9 are on file, and the October 9 events calendar lists only Delta's earnings and Oracle's dividend. |
What's Going On
Friday was the week's story. Ten of 11 names fell: FMC -6.39%, Mosaic -5.02%, Deere -4.85%, Bunge -4.72%, Corteva -3.71%, Nutrien -3.42% and ADM -3.1%, with Nutrien (1.83 times normal volume), CF (1.74), Mosaic (1.59) and Deere (1.47) trading heavy. The fertilizer names, the grain traders and the equipment maker fell together, which points to a sector-wide move rather than a single-name event. No cause is on file: the latest news checks predate Friday, and no articles dated October 9 are on file.
Deere is the cleanest example of a trend under pressure. The FTC and USDA inquiry hit the farm-equipment makers on October 7 (Bloomberg); the October 7 market brief recorded Deere -3.8% and CNH -6.1% that day. Add Friday's -4.85% and Deere's week was -9.62%. It now sits at RSI 33.3, 8.5% under its 20-day and only 4.8% above its 200-day ($592.45). Its year is still 36.1% with alpha 20.1, so this is a deep pullback in an intact trend, but the 200-day is now close enough to be the test.
Fertilizer went from weak to broken. Mosaic fell 11.06% on the week to RSI 23.1, 23.2% under its 200-day with a -43.96% year: capitulation on a chart that fails every long window. Nutrien closed at $67.48, 4.3% under its 200-day ($70.54), and its trailing-year alpha turned negative (-5.58). It is below the $69 stop level that the October 5-8 market briefs carried for it, and the desk still rates its thesis intact. CF Industries slipped 1.6% under its 200-day ($113.39) after a -19.24% month; its alpha is still positive (9.87) and its thesis rating intact, so it is a trend under test. FMC (RSI 31, -72.05% year, alpha -88.06) remains the worst name on every window.
Corteva and Vylor are the new series. Corteva distributed its seed business as Vylor on October 1 (Corteva Form 8-K). Since October 2, Corteva's post-spin shares rose 11.07% and Vylor's 8.76%, with Vylor closing -3.1% from its short post-listing high. JPMorgan upgraded Corteva to overweight with a $19 target on October 6, citing its value after the spin-off (Ground News, relaying the note). That is the one dated item, not a confirmed cause of the week. Seven bars is too little history for RSI or moving-average reads.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- Breadth: Friday closed 1 of 11 green (Vylor), after seven of nine comparable names closed green on October 2. On the week only Corteva, Vylor and DBA rose.
- Below the 200-day: six of nine (NTR, MOS, CF, BG, FMC, MOO) versus five; CF Industries crossed under (from +2.2% to -1.6%). Deere's cushion shrank from 16.9% to 4.8%.
- Negative alpha: five (NTR, MOS, FMC, DBA, MOO) versus four; Nutrien's alpha turned negative.
- Capitulation: Mosaic (23.1) is the book's only name under RSI 25; on October 2 the lowest was FMC at 27.1.
- Deere's RSI fell from 56 to 33.3; it is no longer the book's strength name. ADM (RSI 42.4, 6.5% above its 200-day) now holds the best long-window reading.
- Universe: 11 names, adding Vylor.
How To Read The Board
This list was framed as an energy-shock-to-fertilizer play from an earlier phase of the Iran war; its notes date to May. That frame is dated, so the board is read on price here, not on the old thesis.
On price, the long layer now splits three ways. ADM, Deere and DBA are above their 200-days. ADM and Deere carry positive alpha, and Deere's cushion is thin. CF and Bunge are under the line with positive alpha: trends under test. Nutrien, Mosaic, FMC and MOO are under the line with negative alpha. A low RSI in Mosaic or FMC is damage. In CF or Bunge it is a pullback in a trend that has not yet failed its year.
Corteva and Vylor need a few more weeks of post-spin bars before RSI, moving averages or a trailing year exist. Read their week's change as the first data on new series, not as a continuation of the old Corteva chart.
Source limits: price and RSI against moving averages only; no crop-price, fertilizer-price or weather data. Several news checks in this book are weeks old, which is stated where it matters.
Price Table
Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first; Corteva and Vylor follow because they have no RSI yet. Tape cells are live values for the October 9 close; the Signal column is the desk's label.
| Stock | As of | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBA | 2026-10-09 | 28.33 | 46.8 | 28.48 | -0.5 | 0.43 | -2.31 | 6.95 | 4.2 | 🟡 basing; negative alpha |
| ADM | 2026-10-09 | 79.89 | 42.4 | 82.48 | -3.1 | -0.7 | -7.69 | 30.31 | 6.5 | 🟢 basing above 200-day; positive alpha |
| MOO | 2026-10-09 | 80.46 | 33.7 | 83.24 | -3.3 | -1.08 | -8.24 | 10.42 | -1.6 | 🟡 under 200-day; negative alpha |
| DE | 2026-10-09 | 620.93 | 33.3 | 678.93 | -8.5 | -9.62 | -8.31 | 36.1 | 4.8 | 🟡 deep pullback; thin 200-day cushion |
| BG | 2026-10-09 | 102.73 | 32.4 | 110.83 | -7.3 | -3.74 | -16.82 | 26.41 | -11.8 | 🟡 under 200-day; positive alpha |
| CF | 2026-10-09 | 111.54 | 31.6 | 120.27 | -7.3 | -3.02 | -19.24 | 25.88 | -1.6 | 🟡 slipped under 200-day; thesis intact |
| NTR | 2026-10-09 | 67.48 | 31.5 | 73.13 | -7.7 | -3.68 | -16.4 | 10.42 | -4.3 | 🔴 under 200-day and its $69 stop; alpha negative |
| FMC | 2026-10-09 | 8.35 | 31 | 9.59 | -13 | -1.07 | -32.06 | -72.05 | -36.3 | 🔴 collapse; worst on every window |
| MOS | 2026-10-09 | 18.74 | 23.1 | 22.73 | -17.6 | -11.06 | -28.5 | -43.96 | -23.2 | 🔴 capitulation; negative alpha |
| CTVA | 2026-10-09 | 13.24 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 11.07 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 🟡 post-spin series; seven bars |
| VYLR | 2026-10-09 | 73.15 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 8.76 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 🟡 new listing (Corteva seed spin-off); seven bars |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): MOS (23.1). Negative alpha and 23.2% under its 200-day: capitulation on a broken chart, not a discount.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — 6 names: FMC (31), Nutrien (31.5), CF Industries (31.6), Bunge (32.4), Deere (33.3), MOO (33.7). Deere, CF and Bunge carry positive alpha; Nutrien, FMC and MOO do not.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — 2 names: DBA (46.8), ADM (42.4).
Corteva and Vylor: no tier; too little post-spin history for RSI.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| DE | A hold of its 200-day (592.45) and the 607.13 shelf | 36.1% year, alpha 20.1; the regulatory inquiry is the overhang, the 200-day is the test |
| ADM | A hold of the 78.38 shelf, with the 200-day at 74.99 | The best long-window name left; basing on a 22-week base with an 88.75 pivot |
| CF | A held close back above its 200-day (113.39) | Thesis intact, positive alpha; just under the line |
| BG | A reclaim of its 200-day (116.51); the 94.21 shelf is first support | Positive alpha (10.4) but 11.8% under the line |
| NTR | None until it reclaims its 200-day (70.54) | Under its line and the $69 stop level; alpha turned negative; first support the 65.83 shelf |
| MOS, FMC | None | Negative alpha on every long window; damage, not discount |
| CTVA, VYLR | None yet | New post-spin series; wait for enough bars to read a trend |
| DBA, MOO | No single-name zone | Funds: DBA basing above its 200-day, MOO just under |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADM | 🟢 Above 200-day, positive alpha | 🔒 Hold | The last clean long-window reading in the book |
| DE | 🟡 Deep pullback in trend | 🔍 Watch | -9.62% week on the FTC/USDA inquiry and Friday's sector drop; 4.8% above its 200-day |
| CF, BG | 🟡 Under 200-day, positive alpha | 🔍 Watch | Trends under test; CF just crossed under |
| NTR | 🔴 Under 200-day and stop level | ⚠️ Avoid | Alpha turned negative; reclaim of 70.54 needed |
| MOS, FMC | 🔴 Broken chart | ❌ Don't buy | Mosaic in capitulation; FMC worst on every window |
| CTVA, VYLR | 🟡 New series | 🔍 Watch | Up on the week; seven bars of history |
| DBA, MOO | 🟡 Funds | 🔍 Watch | Negative alpha; DBA basing, MOO under its line |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Deere at its 200-day (592.45) | 4.8% away after a -9.62% week; the inquiry is the dated overhang |
| Whether Friday's sector-wide drop has a cause | Ten of 11 names fell, several on above-normal volume, and nothing dated to the move is on file yet |
| Nutrien back above 70.54 | Under its 200-day and the $69 stop level, alpha negative; a reclaim is the only repair |
| CF Industries at its 200-day (113.39) | Just crossed under with its thesis rated intact |
| Scheduled reports: FMC and Bunge October 29 (provider estimates), ADM and Mosaic November 3, Nutrien and CF November 4 | The first dated tests for the fertilizer and grain names |
| Corteva and Vylor | A month of post-spin bars before either can be read on trend |
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, relative volume, support shelves): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-09 close — food-security.
- Deere: Bloomberg, October 7 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/ftc-usda-seek-comment-on-farm-equipment-market-practices (capture 2026-10-07-bloomberg-farm-machinery-firms-plunge-as-us-examines-market-practices-tmjk8ot9njls00); day moves in the October 7 market brief — 2026-10-07-market-brief.
- Nutrien $69 stop level: focus list in the October 5-8 market briefs — 2026-10-05-market-brief through 2026-10-08-market-brief.
- Corteva spin-off: Corteva Form 8-K, October 1 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1755672/000175567226000028/ctva-20261001.htm.
- Corteva upgrade: Ground News, October 6 — https://ground.news/article/corteva-just-underwent-a-big-spinoff-jpmorgan-says-the-agriculture-stock-is-now-poised-for-big-gains (news check latest, fetched 2026-10-06).
- Cause checks for October 9: news checks under stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json
(NTR, MOS, CF, ADM, BG, DBA fetched 2026-10-08; DE 2026-09-04; FMC 2026-09-03; MOO and VYLR have none), event files 2026-10-09-dal-earnings and2026-10-09-orcl-dividend.md, andresearch/capture/` (none dated 2026-10-09). - List history: watchlist description (energy-shock cascade framing; notes dated May 2026) — food-security.
- Scheduled reports:
research/stock-events/rows for FMC, BG, ADM, MOS, NTR, CF. - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-10-02-food-security.
Related
8 eventsSource links
Tweets, videos, filings, articles, and source pages tied to this read.