Food Security Scan

Scan

Food Security Scan

Watchlists 1
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 25 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-14-food-security.md

This is the standout lane in this batch of scans — eight of the ten names in the book are higher on the week, and RSI jumped double digits across six of ten names, several dramatically: MOO +21.6, MOS +20.2, NTR +18.7, CTVA +17.7, FMC +12.9, CF +14.8. This book is turning up while several other lanes in this cycle's set were cooling. Two names need a long-horizon caveat before their pops read as repairs: MOS is negative over the trailing year with a deeply negative alpha, and FMC remains negative on the year and still tagged collapse despite this week's RSI jump.

Data as-of the 2026-08-21 close for all ten names in the book — no staleness this cycle. No 2026-08-21-dated scan exists for this lane; the comparison baseline below is the August 14 scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 The broadest, cleanest strength in this scan set — most of the book turned up together this week, ahead of the wider tape
Key insight MOS and FMC both posted the book's sharpest RSI pops, but both remain negative over the trailing year — read the week's strength against that before calling either one repaired

What's Going On

Food security is the lane worth leading with this cycle. Eight of the ten names in this book posted a positive weekly return, and RSI moved up across most of the book, in several cases by a striking margin: MOO's RSI jumped from 49.1 to 70.7 (+21.6, the largest move in the book), MOS climbed from 43.1 to 63.3 (+20.2), NTR from 54.3 to 73.0 (+18.7, now the highest reading in the book), CTVA from 37.1 to 54.8 (+17.7, the biggest single-cycle repair for the name that had carried the lowest RSI in the book for three straight cycles), and FMC from 40.8 to 53.7 (+12.9). CF also extended, climbing from 49.1 to 63.9 with its thesis still rated intact. This kind of broad, same-direction move across most of a book — rather than one or two names carrying the whole read — is the more durable tell than any single name's print.

Two names need the trailing-year check before their strong weeks get read as repairs. MOS's RSI pop is real on the tape, and its 30-day return flipped back positive to +7.16% after last cycle's negative flip — but its trailing year is down 25.15%, with an alpha1y of -46.96, among the weakest annual reads in this entire batch of scans. A hot week sitting on top of a genuinely negative year is not the same signal as a repair, and MOS shouldn't be read as one yet. FMC is the sharper case: still tagged collapse, its 30-day return is still negative at -6.45%, and its trailing year is down 71.99% with an alpha1y of -93.8 — one of the weakest annual reads across every book scanned this cycle. The RSI jump is real, but it's happening inside a name whose longer trend is still clearly broken; treat this week's move as a bounce inside a downtrend, not a turn.

Against those two, NTR, CF, DE, and MOO all combine this week's strength with genuinely positive trailing-year numbers — NTR is up 30.65% over the year and 11% above its 200-day, CF is up 50.07% and 22.6% above its 200-day, DE is up 33.02% and 15.8% above its 200-day. Those three read as real continuations, not just short-window pops. BG and ADM are the two names that cooled rather than joined the rally: BG's 7-day return flipped mildly negative to -0.48% and its 30-day loss widened to -8.69%, while it now sits exactly at its 200-day average — worth watching for a break either way. ADM's 30-day loss also widened slightly to -8.04% after breaking a five-cycle deterioration streak last scan, though it remains comfortably above its 200-day at +13.2%.

What Changed Since 2026-08-14

  • MOO: RSI 49.1 → 70.7, the largest RSI jump in the book; 30-day climbed to +2.43% (was -0.26%) — its clearest print since joining the book.
  • MOS: RSI 43.1 → 63.3; 30-day flipped back positive to +7.16% (was -6.21%); trailing year still negative at -25.15% with an alpha1y of -46.96.
  • NTR: RSI 54.3 → 73.0, now the highest in the book; 30-day climbed to +9.88% (was -0.13%); still +30.65% over the trailing year.
  • CTVA: RSI 37.1 → 54.8, the biggest repair for the name that carried the book's lowest RSI for three straight cycles; 30-day still negative at -7.61% (was -9.2%), only marginally improved.
  • FMC: RSI 40.8 → 53.7; 30-day still negative at -6.45% (was -6.28%); trailing year -71.99%, one of the weakest annual reads across this scan set.
  • CF: RSI 49.1 → 63.9, thesis still rated intact; 30-day narrowed to +1.77% (was +0.41%).
  • DE: RSI 50.3 → 62.4; the plateau flagged last cycle broke to the upside; 30-day climbed to +6.61% (was +3.29%).
  • DBA: RSI 52.8 → 60.8; 30-day still roughly flat at +0.32% (was -0.75%) — third print since joining the book.
  • BG: RSI 52.2 → 49.5, the one name that cooled; 7-day flipped to -0.48% (was +4.9%); 30-day loss widened to -8.69% (was -1.75%); now sits exactly at its 200-day.
  • ADM: RSI 50.2 → 48.8, roughly flat; 30-day loss widened slightly to -8.04% (was -2.25%), a mild pause after last cycle's breakout.

How To Read The Board

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call, but this cycle's shape — eight of ten names moving up together — is the more meaningful signal than any single regime tag in this book. That said, two of the loudest moves need the trailing-year discount applied before they're read as turns: MOS and FMC both posted the book's biggest RSI jumps, and both remain negative over the trailing year with deeply negative alphas. A hot week inside a genuinely broken annual trend is a bounce, not a repair — the distinction matters here because both names' short-term numbers alone would tell a much rosier story than the full picture supports. NTR, CF, DE, and MOO don't need that discount: their strength this cycle sits on top of genuinely positive trailing-year numbers and comfortable positions above their 200-day averages, so their moves read as continuations. BG is the one name moving the other direction and now sitting exactly on its 200-day — the cleanest single line to watch for a break either way next cycle.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
NTR $75.27 73.0 $68.56 +9.8% +10.37% +9.88% basing (thesis: intact)
MOO $85.19 70.7 $82.10 +3.8% +4.69% +2.43% basing
CF $129.60 63.9 $120.58 +7.5% +9.55% +1.77% uptrend (thesis: intact)
MOS $24.41 63.3 $22.62 +7.9% +13.05% +7.16% downtrend
DE $647.47 62.4 $612.20 +5.8% +6.42% +6.61% uptrend
DBA $28.32 60.8 $27.79 +1.9% +1.94% +0.32% basing
CTVA $81.79 54.8 $79.81 +2.5% +6.67% -7.61% basing
FMC $11.02 53.7 $10.59 +4.0% +8.67% -6.45% collapse
BG $113.11 49.5 $111.27 +1.7% -0.48% -8.69% pullback
ADM $80.30 48.8 $80.20 +0.1% -0.2% -8.04% basing

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Confirmed strength, RSI 60+ (5): NTR, MOO, CF, MOS (caveat — negative trailing year), DE.

Tier B — Fresh repair, RSI 50-60 (3): DBA, CTVA, FMC (caveat — negative trailing year, still collapse-tagged).

Tier C — Cooling, no fresh strength (2): BG (now exactly at its 200-day), ADM (mild pause after last cycle's repair).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
NTR $75.27 73.0 +9.88% Highest RSI in the book, thesis intact, +30.65% over the trailing year and above its 200-day
DE $647.47 62.4 +6.61% The plateau flagged last cycle broke to the upside; +33.02% over the trailing year
CF $129.60 63.9 +1.77% Thesis rated intact, +50.07% over the trailing year and 22.6% above its 200-day

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD NTR, DE, CF Confirmed strength on both the week and the trailing year
🔍 RESEARCH MOO, DBA, CTVA Fresh strength, no long-horizon red flag, but CTVA's monthly return is still negative despite the RSI repair
⚠️ AVOID MOS Sharp weekly pop, but negative on the trailing year with a deeply negative alpha — don't read the week as a repair
❌ DON'T BUY FMC Still collapse-tagged, still negative on the month, and one of the weakest trailing-year reads in this entire scan set
🔍 WATCH BG, ADM The two names moving the other direction; BG now sits exactly at its 200-day

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether this cycle's broad strength holds into next cycle Eight of ten names moved up together — the next print will show whether this is a real turn or a one-cycle bounce
MOS's trailing-year gap RSI up 20 points on the week, but still down 25.15% over the year — needs real, sustained improvement before it reads as repaired
FMC's collapse tag against its RSI jump Still negative on the month and the weakest 1-year read in the book — the tag and the fundamentals still argue caution
BG sitting exactly at its 200-day The cleanest single line in the book to watch for a break either way
Whether ADM's pause extends Broke a five-cycle deterioration streak last scan; this cycle's mild widening is worth confirming isn't a resumption

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-21 close — food-security.
7 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.