Food Security Scan
Food Security Scan
This is the standout lane in this batch of scans — eight of the ten names in the book are higher on the week, and RSI jumped double digits across six of ten names, several dramatically: MOO +21.6, MOS +20.2, NTR +18.7, CTVA +17.7, FMC +12.9, CF +14.8. This book is turning up while several other lanes in this cycle's set were cooling. Two names need a long-horizon caveat before their pops read as repairs: MOS is negative over the trailing year with a deeply negative alpha, and FMC remains negative on the year and still tagged collapse despite this week's RSI jump.
Data as-of the 2026-08-21 close for all ten names in the book — no staleness this cycle. No 2026-08-21-dated scan exists for this lane; the comparison baseline below is the August 14 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 The broadest, cleanest strength in this scan set — most of the book turned up together this week, ahead of the wider tape |
| Key insight | MOS and FMC both posted the book's sharpest RSI pops, but both remain negative over the trailing year — read the week's strength against that before calling either one repaired |
What's Going On
Food security is the lane worth leading with this cycle. Eight of the ten names in this book posted a positive weekly return, and RSI moved up across most of the book, in several cases by a striking margin: MOO's RSI jumped from 49.1 to 70.7 (+21.6, the largest move in the book), MOS climbed from 43.1 to 63.3 (+20.2), NTR from 54.3 to 73.0 (+18.7, now the highest reading in the book), CTVA from 37.1 to 54.8 (+17.7, the biggest single-cycle repair for the name that had carried the lowest RSI in the book for three straight cycles), and FMC from 40.8 to 53.7 (+12.9). CF also extended, climbing from 49.1 to 63.9 with its thesis still rated intact. This kind of broad, same-direction move across most of a book — rather than one or two names carrying the whole read — is the more durable tell than any single name's print.
Two names need the trailing-year check before their strong weeks get read as repairs. MOS's RSI pop is real on the tape, and its 30-day return flipped back positive to +7.16% after last cycle's negative flip — but its trailing year is down 25.15%, with an alpha1y of -46.96, among the weakest annual reads in this entire batch of scans. A hot week sitting on top of a genuinely negative year is not the same signal as a repair, and MOS shouldn't be read as one yet. FMC is the sharper case: still tagged collapse, its 30-day return is still negative at -6.45%, and its trailing year is down 71.99% with an alpha1y of -93.8 — one of the weakest annual reads across every book scanned this cycle. The RSI jump is real, but it's happening inside a name whose longer trend is still clearly broken; treat this week's move as a bounce inside a downtrend, not a turn.
Against those two, NTR, CF, DE, and MOO all combine this week's strength with genuinely positive trailing-year numbers — NTR is up 30.65% over the year and 11% above its 200-day, CF is up 50.07% and 22.6% above its 200-day, DE is up 33.02% and 15.8% above its 200-day. Those three read as real continuations, not just short-window pops. BG and ADM are the two names that cooled rather than joined the rally: BG's 7-day return flipped mildly negative to -0.48% and its 30-day loss widened to -8.69%, while it now sits exactly at its 200-day average — worth watching for a break either way. ADM's 30-day loss also widened slightly to -8.04% after breaking a five-cycle deterioration streak last scan, though it remains comfortably above its 200-day at +13.2%.
What Changed Since 2026-08-14
- MOO: RSI 49.1 → 70.7, the largest RSI jump in the book; 30-day climbed to +2.43% (was -0.26%) — its clearest print since joining the book.
- MOS: RSI 43.1 → 63.3; 30-day flipped back positive to +7.16% (was -6.21%); trailing year still negative at -25.15% with an alpha1y of -46.96.
- NTR: RSI 54.3 → 73.0, now the highest in the book; 30-day climbed to +9.88% (was -0.13%); still +30.65% over the trailing year.
- CTVA: RSI 37.1 → 54.8, the biggest repair for the name that carried the book's lowest RSI for three straight cycles; 30-day still negative at -7.61% (was -9.2%), only marginally improved.
- FMC: RSI 40.8 → 53.7; 30-day still negative at -6.45% (was -6.28%); trailing year -71.99%, one of the weakest annual reads across this scan set.
- CF: RSI 49.1 → 63.9, thesis still rated intact; 30-day narrowed to +1.77% (was +0.41%).
- DE: RSI 50.3 → 62.4; the plateau flagged last cycle broke to the upside; 30-day climbed to +6.61% (was +3.29%).
- DBA: RSI 52.8 → 60.8; 30-day still roughly flat at +0.32% (was -0.75%) — third print since joining the book.
- BG: RSI 52.2 → 49.5, the one name that cooled; 7-day flipped to -0.48% (was +4.9%); 30-day loss widened to -8.69% (was -1.75%); now sits exactly at its 200-day.
- ADM: RSI 50.2 → 48.8, roughly flat; 30-day loss widened slightly to -8.04% (was -2.25%), a mild pause after last cycle's breakout.
How To Read The Board
Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call, but this cycle's shape — eight of ten names moving up together — is the more meaningful signal than any single regime tag in this book. That said, two of the loudest moves need the trailing-year discount applied before they're read as turns: MOS and FMC both posted the book's biggest RSI jumps, and both remain negative over the trailing year with deeply negative alphas. A hot week inside a genuinely broken annual trend is a bounce, not a repair — the distinction matters here because both names' short-term numbers alone would tell a much rosier story than the full picture supports. NTR, CF, DE, and MOO don't need that discount: their strength this cycle sits on top of genuinely positive trailing-year numbers and comfortable positions above their 200-day averages, so their moves read as continuations. BG is the one name moving the other direction and now sitting exactly on its 200-day — the cleanest single line to watch for a break either way next cycle.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTR | $75.27 | 73.0 | $68.56 | +9.8% | +10.37% | +9.88% | basing (thesis: intact) |
| MOO | $85.19 | 70.7 | $82.10 | +3.8% | +4.69% | +2.43% | basing |
| CF | $129.60 | 63.9 | $120.58 | +7.5% | +9.55% | +1.77% | uptrend (thesis: intact) |
| MOS | $24.41 | 63.3 | $22.62 | +7.9% | +13.05% | +7.16% | downtrend |
| DE | $647.47 | 62.4 | $612.20 | +5.8% | +6.42% | +6.61% | uptrend |
| DBA | $28.32 | 60.8 | $27.79 | +1.9% | +1.94% | +0.32% | basing |
| CTVA | $81.79 | 54.8 | $79.81 | +2.5% | +6.67% | -7.61% | basing |
| FMC | $11.02 | 53.7 | $10.59 | +4.0% | +8.67% | -6.45% | collapse |
| BG | $113.11 | 49.5 | $111.27 | +1.7% | -0.48% | -8.69% | pullback |
| ADM | $80.30 | 48.8 | $80.20 | +0.1% | -0.2% | -8.04% | basing |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — Confirmed strength, RSI 60+ (5): NTR, MOO, CF, MOS (caveat — negative trailing year), DE.
Tier B — Fresh repair, RSI 50-60 (3): DBA, CTVA, FMC (caveat — negative trailing year, still collapse-tagged).
Tier C — Cooling, no fresh strength (2): BG (now exactly at its 200-day), ADM (mild pause after last cycle's repair).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTR | $75.27 | 73.0 | +9.88% | Highest RSI in the book, thesis intact, +30.65% over the trailing year and above its 200-day |
| DE | $647.47 | 62.4 | +6.61% | The plateau flagged last cycle broke to the upside; +33.02% over the trailing year |
| CF | $129.60 | 63.9 | +1.77% | Thesis rated intact, +50.07% over the trailing year and 22.6% above its 200-day |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | NTR, DE, CF | Confirmed strength on both the week and the trailing year |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | MOO, DBA, CTVA | Fresh strength, no long-horizon red flag, but CTVA's monthly return is still negative despite the RSI repair |
| ⚠️ AVOID | MOS | Sharp weekly pop, but negative on the trailing year with a deeply negative alpha — don't read the week as a repair |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | FMC | Still collapse-tagged, still negative on the month, and one of the weakest trailing-year reads in this entire scan set |
| 🔍 WATCH | BG, ADM | The two names moving the other direction; BG now sits exactly at its 200-day |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether this cycle's broad strength holds into next cycle | Eight of ten names moved up together — the next print will show whether this is a real turn or a one-cycle bounce |
| MOS's trailing-year gap | RSI up 20 points on the week, but still down 25.15% over the year — needs real, sustained improvement before it reads as repaired |
| FMC's collapse tag against its RSI jump | Still negative on the month and the weakest 1-year read in the book — the tag and the fundamentals still argue caution |
| BG sitting exactly at its 200-day | The cleanest single line in the book to watch for a break either way |
| Whether ADM's pause extends | Broke a five-cycle deterioration streak last scan; this cycle's mild widening is worth confirming isn't a resumption |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-21 close — food-security.
Related
7 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.