This report tracks the hyperscaler/chip/foundry basket in ai-infra.json (AMZN, NVDA, ASML, TAC, TSM, PLTR, MRVL, ARM, P, AIQ, SMH, SFTBY — 12 names), not the separate physical-buildout universe (ai-infrastructure.json). The board carries a Friday 2026-09-11 settled close. The clearest move: SFTBY's RSI jumped again, this time from 56.3 to 70.1 (+13.8), extending last cycle's trend flip further above its 200-day (11.1%→34.6%) — but no fresh news is on file to confirm a cause for either move. NVDA cooled the hardest in the basket (RSI 60.4→49.8, -10.6), and PLTR's cooldown continued for a second straight cycle, its 1-year change nearly erased (11.65%→1.75%).

LONG-HORIZON READ: a name whose short-window trend flag reads "down" but sits ABOVE its 200-day with a positive 1-year change is a deep pullback in an intact trend, never a breakdown. PLTR's continuing cooldown is exactly that pattern, though its cushion is thinning.

SFTBY posted the basket's largest move for a second straight cycle — RSI +13.8 (56.3→70.1), now the only genuinely overbought name in this basket, and its cushion above the 200-day widened further (11.1%→34.6%) on top of last cycle's trend flip. The news on file for this name was pulled 2026-09-09 but the dated items inside are stale relative to this move (the most recent describes an August 27 US-Japan AI/semiconductor investment initiative and an August 4 close) — nothing confirms what drove this week's continued surge, so it is reported without a sourced cause, same as last cycle. Note also that SoftBank's US listing here (SFTBY) is an unsponsored OTC American Depositary Receipt of a Japanese primary (9984.T) — research-only on this desk, never an entry-zone or buy candidate regardless of how the chart looks.

NVDA cooled the hardest in the basket this cycle — RSI 60.4→49.8 (-10.6) — with its 1-year change decelerating (34.20%→23.21%) and its 200-day cushion nearly halved (17.1%→10.5%), though both stay comfortably positive; this reads as a deep pullback inside an intact trend, not a breakdown. PLTR's cooldown continued for a second straight cycle — RSI -5.0 (54.2→49.2) — and its 1-year change is now nearly flat (11.65%→1.75%) with its 200-day cushion thinning further (15.2%→10.4%); PLTR's news on file still predates this stretch of weakness, so the specific driver remains unconfirmed. Elsewhere in the basket, ARM recovered (RSI +5.4 to 53.4, still 29.6% above its 200-day) and TAC firmed slightly (RSI +3.2 to 44.0) though it remains the one name in this basket with genuine long-horizon weakness — 7.6% below its 200-day with a flat-to-negative year (-4.51%). TSM, AIQ, MRVL, AMZN, ASML, P, and SMH all held roughly steady to modestly changed, none moving more than 3 RSI points in either direction.

1. SFTBY posted the basket's sharpest move for a second straight cycle: RSI 56.3→70.1 (+13.8), now the basket's only overbought name, vs SMA200 widened to +34.6% — still no sourced cause on file.
2. NVDA cooled the hardest: RSI -10.6 (60.4→49.8), 200-day cushion nearly halved (17.1%→10.5%), 1-year change decelerated to +23.21%.
3. PLTR's cooldown continued for a second straight cycle: RSI -5.0 (54.2→49.2), 1-year change nearly erased (11.65%→1.75%), driver still unconfirmed.
4. ARM recovered: RSI +5.4 (48.0→53.4), still 29.6% above its 200-day.
5. TAC firmed slightly but remains the basket's real weak spot: RSI +3.2 (40.8→44.0), still -7.6% below its 200-day with a flat-to-negative year.
6. MRVL firmed: RSI +4.4 (51.1→55.5), still the basket's best 1-year gain (+254.56%).
7. AIQ cooled modestly: RSI -2.8 (56.9→54.1), still an intact trend.
8. P cooled slightly: RSI -1.7 (53.1→51.4), 1-year change moderated to +19.06% (from +26.39%).
9. ASML cooled slightly: RSI -1.5 (48.3→46.8), still comfortably above its 200-day.
10. TSM and SMH both held roughly flat: TSM RSI +0.1 (56.8→56.9); SMH RSI +0.1 (51.2→51.3).
11. AMZN held roughly flat: RSI -0.6 (49.5→48.9), margin above its 200-day steady at +7.1%.

RSI < 25 = capitulation. RSI 25-40 = oversold (check trend, death-cross, and the long-horizon numbers before treating as a buy). RSI 40-70 = neutral-to-healthy. RSI > 70 = extended. "1Y%" and "vs SMA200" are the long-horizon check: a name below its 200-day with a weak or negative year is real weakness; a name above its 200-day with a strong year is a deep pullback even when its short-window RSI looks weak.

None.

None this cycle — TAC (44.0) sits at the basket's low end but is now above 40 for the first time this stretch.

All 12 names: SFTBY (70.1, overbought), TSM (56.9), MRVL (55.5), AIQ (54.1), ARM (53.4), P (51.4), SMH (51.3), NVDA (49.8), PLTR (49.2), AMZN (48.9), ASML (46.8), TAC (44.0).

• Whether SFTBY's now-two-cycle surge into overbought (RSI 70.1, +34.6% above its 200-day) finds a sourced catalyst or continues to run without one.
• Whether NVDA's sharp cooldown (RSI -10.6, cushion nearly halved) stabilizes above its 200-day or the pullback deepens further.
• Whether PLTR's second straight cooldown (1-year change now nearly flat) stalls out or the news catches up with an explanation.
• Whether TAC's continued below-200-day, flat-to-negative-year profile deepens into a real breakdown or finds a floor.
• Whether ARM's recovery (RSI +5.4) extends into the next cycle or fades.

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-11 close — ai-infra.
• News receipts checked for cause attribution: stocks{PLTR,SFTBY}/news/latest.json`.
• Prior cycle for comparison: 2026-09-04-ai-infrastructure.