This report tracks the hyperscaler/chip/foundry basket in ai-infra.json (AMZN, NVDA, ASML, TAC, TSM, PLTR, MRVL, ARM, P, AIQ, SMH, and newly-added SFTBY — 12 names), not the separate physical-buildout universe (ai-infrastructure.json). The board carries a Friday 2026-08-28 settled close. The clearest move: P's RSI collapsed from 66.7 to 46.3 (-20.4), by far the basket's largest swing, on a -13.96% 7-day return — though it remains 24.3% above its 200-day with a +15.97% 1-year gain.

LONG-HORIZON READ: a name whose short-window trend flag reads "down" but sits ABOVE its 200-day with a positive 1-year change is a deep pullback in an intact trend, never a breakdown. P's cooldown this cycle is exactly that pattern.

P remains the basket's standout mover, and its RSI cooldown this cycle is the sharpest of any name in the group by a wide margin — falling from 66.7 to 46.3 (-20.4) on a -13.96% 7-day return. That's a real deceleration from last cycle's already-cooling pace, but the long-horizon numbers still say deep pullback: P sits 24.3% above its 200-day with a +15.97% 1-year gain and a still-positive 30-day return (+34.87%). TAC continues to be the one name in this basket where the long-horizon check confirms real weakness rather than a horizon-mismatch trap — it trades 7.5% below its 200-day with a flat-to-negative year (-3.33%), even though its RSI ticked up modestly this cycle (39.5→41.8).

PLTR held essentially flat on RSI (69.4→69.3) after last cycle's extension, remaining near overbought following a 51.46% 30-day run, but still 23.1% above its 200-day with its thesis rated intact. NVDA and ASML both cooled further on RSI this week (NVDA 7D +1.29%, ASML 7D -3.90%) but both remain comfortably above their 200-day with strong years — deep pullbacks, not breakdowns. MRVL posted the basket's second-sharpest move (RSI -8.6) but stays 45.7% above its 200-day with the group's best 1-year gain (+180.49%). ARM sits right at the edge of the oversold band (RSI 40.0) but remains 19.9% above its 200-day — the same "intact-but-priced" pattern the desk flags across the wider chip complex. SFTBY joins the tracked basket this cycle trading in a collapse regime, 1.1% below its own 200-day and 45.5% off its 52-week high — the one clean long-horizon flag alongside TAC.

1. P's RSI collapsed, by far the basket's largest swing: 66.7→46.3 (-20.4), 30D +45.55%→+34.87%, 7D turned sharply negative (-13.96%).
2. SFTBY newly joins the tracked basket: RSI 40.6, collapse regime, 1.1% below its own 200-day — bringing the universe from 11 to 12 names.
3. MRVL cooled the second-most in the basket: RSI 55.8→47.2 (-8.6), still the group's best 1-year gain (+180.49%).
4. ASML dropped further: RSI 50.5→43.4 (-7.1), still 15.9% above its 200-day.
5. ARM eased to the edge of the oversold band: RSI 39.2→40.0 (+0.8), still 19.9% above its 200-day.
6. TAC ticked up modestly: RSI 39.5→41.8 (+2.3), still the basket's one genuinely weak chart.
7. AIQ improved: RSI 55.1→57.3 (+2.2), still steady.
8. NVDA firmed slightly: RSI 51.0→52.3 (+1.3), thesis rated intact.
9. TSM held roughly flat: RSI 50.4→49.6 (-0.8).
10. AMZN improved: RSI 49.7→55.9 (+6.2), thesis rated intact.
11. PLTR held essentially flat: RSI 69.4→69.3 (-0.1), still near overbought.
12. SMH cooled modestly: RSI 45.7→45.0 (-0.7), still 17.1% above its 200-day.

RSI < 25 = capitulation. RSI 25-40 = oversold (check trend, death-cross, and the long-horizon numbers before treating as a buy — the two names near this band this cycle, ARM and TAC, read very differently). RSI 40-70 = neutral-to-healthy. RSI > 70 = extended. "1Y%" and "vs SMA200" are the long-horizon check: a name below its 200-day with a weak or negative year is real weakness; a name above its 200-day with a strong year is a deep pullback even when its short-window RSI looks weak.

None.

None this cycle. TAC (41.8), ARM (40.0), and SFTBY (40.6) all sit right at or just above the band's edge.

All 12 names: PLTR (69.3), AIQ (57.3), AMZN (55.9), NVDA (52.3), TSM (49.6), P (46.3), SMH (45.0), MRVL (47.2), ASML (43.4), TAC (41.8), SFTBY (40.6), ARM (40.0).

• Whether P's sharp deceleration (RSI -20.4, 7D -13.96%) stabilizes into a healthier pullback or the trend genuinely breaks given the size of the swing.
• Whether TAC's continued below-200-day, flat-to-negative-year profile deepens into a real breakdown or finds a floor.
• Whether ARM's borderline-oversold reading resolves as a buyable dip (it remains 19.9% above its 200-day) or the pullback deepens further.
• Whether SFTBY, newly added to this basket, stabilizes above its 200-day or the current collapse regime persists.
• Whether MRVL's sharp 7-day drop (-8.63%) is a one-cycle wobble given it still carries the basket's best 1-year gain.

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — ai-infra.
• Prior cycle for comparison: 2026-08-22-ai-infrastructure.