This report tracks the hyperscaler/chip/foundry basket in ai-infra.json (AMZN, NVDA, ASML, TAC, TSM, PLTR, MRVL, ARM, P, AIQ, SMH — 11 names), not the separate physical-buildout universe (ai-infrastructure.json). The board carries a Friday 2026-08-21 settled close. The clearest move: P cooled sharply out of last cycle's deep-overbought/parabolic read (RSI 83.9→66.7, -17.2, the basket's largest swing) while TAC and ARM both dropped into the oversold band for the first time this stretch, giving the basket two oversold names after carrying zero last cycle.

LONG-HORIZON READ: a name whose short-window trend flag reads "down" but sits ABOVE its 200-day with a positive 1-year change is a deep pullback in an intact trend, never a breakdown. ARM's oversold RSI this cycle is exactly that pattern — TAC's is not.

P remains the basket's standout mover, but the direction flipped from acceleration to deceleration. Its RSI fell from 83.9 to 66.7 — out of deep overbought — and its 30-day return cooled from +67.01% to +45.55%; the stock is no longer in a parabolic regime, though it still sits 44.8% above its 200-day with a 94.78% 1-year gain. TAC and ARM both dropped into the oversold band for the first time this basket has carried more than one oversold name, but the two cases read very differently on the long-horizon check: TAC trades below its 200-day (-8.0%) with a flat-to-negative year (-0.81%) — real weakness — while ARM sits 23.4% above its 200-day with an 82.56% 1-year gain, the same "intact-but-priced" pattern the desk flags across the wider chip complex.

PLTR eased slightly from last cycle's own extension but remains near overbought (RSI 69.4) after a 44.45% 30-day run, still 18.8% above its 200-day with its thesis rated intact. NVDA and ASML both cooled on RSI this week (NVDA 7D -4.62%, ASML 7D -4.34%) but both remain comfortably above their 200-day with strong years — deep pullbacks, not breakdowns. AMZN, TSM, MRVL, and AIQ all held roughly steady to modestly improved. SMH had the basket's roughest week on a short-window basis (7D -4.66%) but sits 20% above its 200-day with a 95.56% 1-year gain — the same deep-pullback pattern seen across the rest of the semis complex.

1. P cooled sharply out of deep overbought, the basket's largest swing: RSI 83.9→66.7 (-17.2), 30D +67.01%→+45.55%, no longer in a parabolic regime.
2. TAC and ARM both dropped into the oversold band, the basket's first cycle with more than zero oversold names: TAC 47.3→39.5 (-7.8); ARM 50.9→39.2 (-11.7).
3. NVDA cooled the second-most of any name in the basket: RSI 62.8→51.0 (-11.8), still thesis-rated intact.
4. ASML dropped sharply: RSI 59.8→50.5 (-9.3), still 21.9% above its 200-day.
5. SMH cooled: RSI 54.2→45.7 (-8.5), still 20% above its 200-day.
6. AIQ eased: RSI 59.1→55.1 (-4.0).
7. TSM held roughly flat: RSI 54.4→50.4 (-4.0).
8. AMZN cooled modestly: RSI 53.4→49.7 (-3.7).
9. PLTR ticked up slightly, still near overbought: RSI 68.3→69.4 (+1.1).
10. MRVL improved: RSI 54.0→55.8 (+1.8), still the basket's best 1-year gain (+232.87%).

RSI < 25 = capitulation. RSI 25-40 = oversold (check trend, death-cross, and the long-horizon numbers before treating as a buy — this basket now has two oversold names that read very differently). RSI 40-70 = neutral-to-healthy. RSI > 70 = extended. "1Y%" and "vs SMA200" are the long-horizon check: a name below its 200-day with a weak or negative year is real weakness; a name above its 200-day with a strong year is a deep pullback even when its short-window RSI looks weak.

None.

TAC (39.5), ARM (39.2) — two names, up from zero last cycle. TAC is genuine weakness (below its 200-day, flat-to-negative year); ARM is a deep pullback inside an intact trend (23.4% above its 200-day, +82.56% year).

The remaining nine names: PLTR (69.4), P (66.7), MRVL (55.8), AIQ (55.1), NVDA (51.0), ASML (50.5), TSM (50.4), AMZN (49.7), SMH (45.7).

• Whether P's cooldown out of deep overbought (RSI 83.9→66.7, 30D +67.01%→+45.55%) stabilizes into a healthier trend or continues decelerating.
• Whether TAC's drop below RSI 40 — paired with its below-200-day, flat-to-negative-year profile — deepens into a real breakdown.
• Whether ARM's oversold reading resolves as a buyable dip (it remains 23.4% above its 200-day) or the pullback deepens further given its -12.89% 7-day change.
• Whether NVDA's and ASML's cooldowns this cycle (both roughly -10 RSI points) hold above their 200-day or test it the way AVGO did in the wider semis complex this cycle.

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-21 close — ai-infra.
• Prior cycle for comparison: 2026-08-14-ai-infrastructure.