This report tracks the hyperscaler, chip and foundry basket — Amazon, Nvidia, ASML, TransAlta, TSMC, Palantir, Marvell, Arm, Everpure, and the two AI/semiconductor funds — not the separate physical-buildout universe that shares a similar name. Last cycle's headline was Arm's unexplained 36% breakout to the basket's first overbought print; this week Arm gave back roughly half that move while Everpure took its place at the top of the board, surging on a dated catalyst — MarketWatch (September 24) reported it leading S&P 500 gainers after joining the index. Amazon's three-cycle thinning cushion broke its slide and stabilized rather than crossing zero. TransAlta fell into oversold for the first time in this basket's coverage, its news pull still failed since April.

LONG-HORIZON READ: a name whose short-window trend flag reads "down" but sits ABOVE its 200-day with a positive 1-year change is a deep pullback in an intact trend, never a breakdown. Only price below the 200-day paired with a weak or negative year is real structural damage.

Leadership in this basket rotated rather than broke down this week. Arm, last cycle's sole overbought name on an unexplained 36% single-week spike, gave back a substantial share of that move: its RSI fell from 71.1 to 61.2, its price from $332.56 to $310.32, its 200-day cushion from +58.2% to +46.5%, and its trailing year from +135.87% to +120.63%. No dated item explains either direction — Arm's own news receipt still carries only generic stock-quote aggregator pages, and no earnings print falls inside this window in the scheduled-event record. Everpure took over the basket's only overbought slot in its place, and its move has an actual receipt behind it: MarketWatch reported on September 24 that "the S&P 500's newest tech stock is now its best performer," describing Everpure leading index gainers on the back of its inclusion, a story the desk's own news receipt for the name corroborates with matching items dated September 23 and 24. Its RSI jumped 10.8 points to 71.1, its cushion widened to +63.1% — now the deepest in the basket — and its trailing year more than doubled to +50.95%.

The rest of the semiconductor complex inside this basket held largely steady. Marvell's RSI was unchanged at 63.1 with its enormous year (+212.54%) intact; TSMC firmed slightly (60.6→62.2); the two funds, SMH and AIQ, both firmed modestly (61.4→62.7 and 60.8→60.7, respectively); Nvidia and ASML each cooled fractionally without any real change in trend. Palantir cooled slightly off last cycle's strong move (66.9→63.7) even as MarketWatch (September 23) reported its stock closing at its highest level of the year — the desk's own read on this basket still flags its trailing year, now +5.89%, as the weakest intact long-horizon profile in the group despite three-plus consecutive strong cycles.

Amazon and TransAlta moved in opposite directions from what the prior two cycles had set up. Amazon's cushion had thinned for three straight cycles (7.1%→5.6%→3.6%) and the prior edition flagged it as the basket's name closest to a 200-day crossing; this week that slide stopped, with the cushion actually widening slightly to +3.7% and the trailing year improving to +14.45%. TransAlta went the other way, falling into oversold for the first time this basket has recorded — RSI 45.1→38.8, its year deteriorating further to -14.53% and its 200-day gap widening to -11.1%. Its news pull remains failed since April on a search-provider rate limit, confirmed again this cycle, so the desk still has no receipt-based evidence to weigh against a tape that has now deteriorated for two straight cycles.

1. Leadership at the top of the RSI board rotated: Arm's overbought print (71.1) reversed to 61.2 while Everpure's jumped from 60.3 to 71.1, taking over the basket's sole spot above RSI 70.
2. P (Everpure) posted the basket's largest move on a dated catalyst: +20.99% on the week, RSI +10.8 (60.3→71.1), cushion +42.6%→+63.1% (now the basket's deepest), year +24.19%→+50.95% — MarketWatch (September 24) reported it leading S&P 500 gainers following its index inclusion.
3. ARM gave back roughly half of last cycle's unexplained 36% spike: RSI -9.9 (71.1→61.2), price $332.56→$310.32, cushion 58.2%→46.5%, year 135.87%→120.63% — still no dated catalyst found in either direction.
4. AMZN's three-cycle thinning cushion broke: 7.1%→5.6%→3.6%→3.7%, RSI +0.4 (44.1→44.5), year improved to +14.45% — the 200-day crossing the prior edition flagged as the basket's most likely next event did not happen.
5. TAC fell into oversold for the first time in this basket's coverage: RSI -6.3 (45.1→38.8), year -12.26%→-14.53%, 200-day gap -8.0%→-11.1%. Its news pull remains failed since April.
6. PLTR cooled slightly despite a sourced "highest close of the year" report: RSI -3.2 (66.9→63.7), cushion 26.2%→24.8%, year ticked up to +5.89% — MarketWatch (September 23) tied the strength to Palantir's last earnings report and the broader AI narrative, though this basket's own year measure remains the weakest intact profile in the group.
7. MRVL held exactly flat on RSI (63.1) while its year cooled to +212.54% from +249.64%, still the basket's largest trailing return.
8. TSM and the two funds firmed modestly: TSM +1.6 (60.6→62.2), SMH +1.3 (61.4→62.7), AIQ roughly flat (60.8→60.7).
9. NVDA and ASML both cooled fractionally: NVDA RSI -0.5 (55.7→55.2), cushion 13.3%→12.8%; ASML RSI -0.4 (55.0→54.6), cushion 14.9%→14.4% — no material change in either trend.

RSI below 25 is capitulation. RSI 25-40 is oversold — check the trend, the death-cross flag and the long-horizon numbers before treating it as a buy. RSI 40-70 is neutral-to-healthy, above 70 is extended. "vs SMA" is distance from the 20-day average and is short-term positioning only. "1Y%" and "vs SMA200" are the long-horizon check that decides whether a trend is intact: a name below its 200-day with a weak or negative year is real weakness; a name above its 200-day with a strong year is a deep pullback even when its short-window reading looks soft. Everything here is raw screen evidence from settled prices. Where a cause is named it comes from a dated item in that name's news receipt or a dated capture; where the receipt is stale or failed the scan says so plainly.

None.

One name: TAC at 38.8 — the basket's first name in this band this cycle, its year and 200-day gap both deteriorating further.

Nine names inside a 44-to-64 band: PLTR (63.7), MRVL (63.1), SMH (62.7), TSM (62.2), ARM (61.2), AIQ (60.7), NVDA (55.2), ASML (54.6), AMZN (44.5).

One name: P at 71.1 — taking over the basket's sole overbought slot from Arm, which held it last cycle.

• Whether Everpure holds its overbought print or gives back a share of the 20.99% week the way Arm did the move it inherited the top slot from — the S&P 500-inclusion catalyst is dated and real, but the size of the move (+63.1% now above its 200-day) leaves room for a sharp retracement without breaking the underlying trend.
• Whether Arm's reversal continues toward its pre-spike level or stabilizes near its current +46.5% cushion — still no dated catalyst has surfaced for either the original spike or this pullback.
• Whether Amazon's stabilized cushion (+3.7%, up from +3.6%) resumes thinning next cycle or holds, now that the three-cycle slide the desk was watching has broken.
• Whether TransAlta's fall into oversold — its first in this basket's coverage — is a one-cycle move or the start of a deeper decline, and whether its failed news pull (since April) is ever restored so the desk has evidence to weigh against the tape.
• Whether Palantir's trailing year, now +5.89%, finally breaks meaningfully higher given the sourced "highest close of the year" narrative, or stays the basket's structurally weakest long-horizon profile despite the strong tape.
• Whether the basket's RSI spread — now a 32-point range from TAC (38.8) to P (71.1) — narrows back toward the tight band seen two cycles ago, or whether dispersion is becoming the basket's new normal.

• Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — ai-infra.
• News receipts checked for cause attribution: stocks{ARM,NVDA,ASML,TAC,P,PLTR,MRVL}/news/latest.json`.
• Scheduled-event check for Arm and Marvell: research/stock-events/.
• Everpure's S&P 500 inclusion: 2026-09-24-marketwatch-the-s-p-500-x2019-s-newest-tech-stock-is-now-its-best-perfor--mktw-0005252077, plus matching items in latest dated 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-24.
• Palantir's highest close of the year: 2026-09-23-marketwatch-palantir-x2019-s-stock-sees-its-highest-close-of-the-year-se--mktw-0005249436.
• Prior cycle for comparison: 2026-09-23-ai-infrastructure.