AI Infrastructure

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AI Infrastructure

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raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 37 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-10-02-ai-infrastructure.md

The compact AI-infrastructure board split along the week's rotation: Arm fell 13.4% and ASML, TSMC and NVIDIA gave back 2% to 4.66% after OpenAI's revenue report hit chipmakers on October 8 (CNBC), while Palantir and Everpure each gained more than 10% to RSI 76.3 and 81.2. TransAlta (TAC) moved back above its 200-day, so all 11 names now trade above theirs. Everpure (P) has the highest RSI on either AI board: it sits 24% above its 20-day and 91.5% above its 200-day. All 11 names carry a settled 2026-10-09 close.

LONG-HORIZON READ: if a name's short-term trend reads "down" but it trades above its 200-day average and is up on the year, it is a deep pullback in an intact trend, not a breakdown. Real structural damage takes both: a price under the 200-day and a weak or negative year. The 1Y and vs SMA200 columns carry that check.


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟢 All 11 names sit above their 200-day; ten are up on the year. The risk is stretch at the top (Everpure, Palantir) and a deeper flag in Arm, not damage
Leaders (7D) PLTR 10.75%, P 10.24%, TAC 6.32%, AMZN 4.34%
Laggards (7D) ARM -13.4%, ASML -4.66%, SMH -4.32%, TSM -4.12%, NVDA -2%
Extended (RSI 70+) P 81.2, PLTR 76.3
Caveat Every name has a settled close. Everpure's news was last pulled September 30, and TransAlta's last news pull failed in April, so neither move this week has a cause on file. No news capture is dated October 9

What's Going On

The chipmakers gave back after the OpenAI report. On October 8, OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion, below the figure widely cited, and CNBC listed NVIDIA among the AI stocks that sank. NVIDIA fell 2% on the week to $229.28. That is back under the $236.54 pivot and the $237–$245 zone that its September 28 deep dive named (as restated in the October 5 market brief). It still sits 13.4% above its 200-day and is up 19.06% on the year. TSMC fell 4.12% to $453.31, under the $461.47 pivot named October 5, and ASML fell 4.66%. Both are scheduled to report next week, ASML on October 14 and TSMC on October 15. Arm fell 13.4%: 2.71% on October 7, then 6.48% on October 8, when Morgan Stanley kept its Equal-weight rating while raising its target to $212 (Benzinga), and another 3.27% on Friday with no cause on file. Arm still sits 21% above its 200-day and is up 56.03% on the year, a deep pullback in an intact trend, now 41.18% off its high. Marvell held up, rising 1.1% on the week. On October 6 it rose 5.81% after its investor-day guidance (The Motley Fool, as cited in that day's market brief), and it sits 60.2% above its 200-day, up 203.57% on the year.

Everpure and Palantir are the stretch. Everpure rose 10.24% on the week and 59.17% over 30 days. At RSI 81.2 it closed 1.63% under its high and 24% above its 20-day average. Its news was last pulled September 30 and no October capture names it, so the cause of this week's gain is not on file. Its September 25 S&P 500 inclusion item is history, not a cause for this week. Palantir rose 10.75%, 5.17% of it on Friday, to RSI 76.3, 0.25% under its high. Its news was last pulled October 8 and carries nothing on the move, and the October 8 market brief found no cause for that day's government-compute rally either. Palantir is 37.2% above its 200-day but up only 12.71% on the year.

Amazon and TransAlta improved. Amazon rose 4.34% on the week, 3.29% of it on Friday (its news was last pulled October 8, so Friday's cause is not on file). It now sits 8.4% above its 200-day and up 15.23% on the year, well above the $242–$247 retest zone the October 8 market brief named. Amazon is scheduled to report October 29. TransAlta rose 6.32% and closed 1.7% above its 200-day, but it is still down 15.83% on the year, so its trend is repairing rather than intact.


What Changed Since Prior Scan

Prior edition: 2026-10-02. That edition's numbers are not reprinted. The points below compare its stated bands and lists with the 2026-10-09 summary, whose 7-day window starts at the October 2 close.

  1. The RSI 70+ band changed. On October 2 it held TSMC and Everpure. Now it holds Everpure and Palantir; TSMC cooled to the low 50s.
  2. All 11 names are above their 200-day, up from 10 of 11. TransAlta, the one name below its line on October 2, closed back above it.
  3. The leaders turned over. On October 2, Everpure, ASML and TransAlta led. This week Palantir, Everpure and TransAlta lead and ASML is among the laggards.
  4. Arm moved from a flat week into a deep pullback. It was the board's softest name on October 2 and is now its weakest by a wide margin.
  5. No name is below RSI 40, the same as last week.

How To Read The Board

RSI below 25 is capitulation. RSI 25–40 is oversold, and it means little without the long-horizon columns. RSI 40–70 is neutral to healthy; 70 and above is extended, and above 80 is overbought. "vs SMA" is the distance from the 20-day average, a short-term positioning read only. "1Y%" and "vs SMA200" show whether the trend is intact. The Signal column labels each row intact (above the 200-day, up on the year) or repairing (above the 200-day, down on the year). This board holds nine operating companies plus two funds, AIQ and SMH. TransAlta (TAC) is a Canadian power producer (hydro, wind, solar, batteries and gas), not a nuclear name. Everything here is raw screen evidence from settled prices; none of it is a setup until a level is named and holds. The table shows 7-day, 30-day and one-year changes ending at the 2026-10-09 close.


Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% 1Y% vs SMA200 Signal
NVDA $229.28 53 $226.73 1.1% -2% 2.51% 19.06% 13.4% 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year
AMZN $262.43 59 $252.02 4.1% 4.34% 3.97% 15.23% 8.4% 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year
ASML $1780.34 52.4 $1744.55 2.1% -4.66% 2.94% 81.57% 14% 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year
TSM $453.31 52.4 $450.47 0.6% -4.12% 4.12% 51.16% 15.7% 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year
MRVL $275.28 61.5 $258.47 6.5% 1.1% 17.14% 203.57% 60.2% 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year
ARM $266.28 43.9 $288.93 -7.8% -13.4% 0.78% 56.03% 21% 🟡 Neutral, soft; deep pullback, still above 200-day, positive year
PLTR $209.05 76.3 $187 11.8% 10.75% 23.31% 12.71% 37.2% 🟠 Extended, above 200-day, positive year
TAC (TransAlta) $13.13 63.9 $12.2 7.6% 6.32% 6.32% -15.83% 1.7% 🟡 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, year negative (repairing)
P (Everpure) $154.49 81.2 $124.59 24% 10.24% 59.17% 65.02% 91.5% 🔴 Overbought, above 200-day, positive year
AIQ $66.6 58.7 $65.42 1.8% 0.56% 3.88% 29.9% 15.3% 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year
SMH $603.33 53 $597.06 1.1% -4.32% 5.06% 75.32% 19.2% 🟢 Neutral-healthy, above 200-day, positive year

Tier Analysis

Tier Names Read
Capitulation (RSI under 25) none —
Oversold (RSI 25–40) none —
Neutral and healthy (RSI 40–70) AMZN, NVDA, ASML, TAC, TSM, MRVL, ARM, AIQ, SMH All above their 200-days; Arm is the soft one at RSI 43.9
Extended (RSI 70+) P, PLTR Everpure is overbought (above 80) after a 59% month; Palantir is extended at its high

Entry Zones

Each level marks where a pullback stays a flag or turns into a break. These are conditions to watch, not orders.

Stock Zone / level Confirmation Thesis
NVDA 20-day $226.73 up to the $236.54 pivot A close back above $236.54 Intact trend that slipped back under its breakout line
TSM 20-day $450.47 up to the $461.47 pivot Holds the 20-day through the October 15 report, then reclaims the pivot Intact; the report is the test
ARM 200-day $220.11 floor; 20-day $288.93 A close back above the 20-day Deep pullback in an intact trend
AMZN 20-day $252.02; $242–$247 retest zone beneath Holds the 20-day into the October 29 report Pullback ended; trend intact
P 20-day $124.59 A pullback toward the 20-day that holds and resets RSI under 70 Overbought; chasing is poor risk/reward
PLTR 20-day $187 A pullback toward the 20-day that holds Extended at its high
TAC 200-day $12.91 Stays above the 200-day Repairing; the year is still negative

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
NVDA 🟢 🔒 Hold Intact trend; back under its $236.54 pivot
TSM 🟢 🔍 Watch Under its $461.47 pivot; scheduled to report October 15
ASML 🟢 🔍 Watch Intact trend; scheduled to report October 14
MRVL 🟢 🔒 Hold Strongest one-year trend on the board; not extended
ARM 🟡 🔍 Watch Deep pullback in an intact trend; needs a turn back up through the 20-day
AMZN 🟢 🔒 Hold Above its 200-day and up on the year; scheduled to report October 29
PLTR 🟠 ⚠️ Caution RSI 76; Friday's gain has no cause on file
P 🔴 ⚠️ Caution RSI 81, 24% above its 20-day; cause of the run not on file this week
TAC 🟡 🔍 Watch Back above its 200-day; the year is still negative
SMH, AIQ 🟢 🔒 Hold Fund-level trends intact

What To Watch Next

  1. ASML (October 14) and TSMC (October 15). Do the reports hold the chip pullback at the 20-day averages, or extend it after the OpenAI selloff?
  2. NVIDIA's $236.54 pivot. A close back above it restores the breakout; staying below keeps the 20-day as the line.
  3. Arm's flag. Does Arm turn back up through its 20-day, or does the pullback reach toward its 200-day?
  4. Everpure's stretch. Does it consolidate toward its 20-day after a 59% month, or keep running with no cause on file?
  5. TransAlta's 200-day. Does the first close back above the line hold?

Sources

  • Tape data: the desk's pre-computed ai-infra summary, the canonical nine-name AI-infrastructure list plus AIQ and SMH, settled 2026-10-09 close (ai-infra).
  • Prior edition: 2026-10-02 AI infrastructure (2026-10-02-ai-infrastructure); bands and lists compared, numbers not reprinted.
  • Market briefs of October 5, 6 and 8, 2026 (2026-10-05-market-brief, 2026-10-06-market-brief, 2026-10-08-market-brief): the NVIDIA and TSMC pivots, Marvell's October 6 move, Arm's October 7–8 moves, the Amazon retest zone, the government-compute rally and the earnings dates.
  • CNBC, October 8, 2026: Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html
  • Benzinga, October 8, 2026: Why Is Arm Stock Falling Thursday? — https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/10/62243612/why-is-arm-stock-falling-thursday (Arm news receipt, pulled October 8)
  • Cause checks: Everpure news receipt pulled 2026-09-30; TransAlta news receipt last attempted 2026-04-29 and failed; Palantir and Amazon receipts pulled 2026-10-08; no capture in articles or tweets is dated 2026-10-09; research/stock-events/ holds only DAL and ORCL entries for the date.
  • Security identity: Everpure, Inc. (formerly Pure Storage; ticker P since April 2026) and TransAlta (TAC), per the desk's securities registry and watchlist notes.
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