Bargain Bin Scan
Bargain Bin Scan
HON clears the strict bargain-bin filter this cycle — RSI below 30 AND price below its 20-day average — the first strict hit in the tracked window after two straight zero-hit cycles. HON's RSI fell to 29.3 (was 34.7 on 09-04) with no fresh news receipt available to explain the move (this desk's HON pull is stale, fetched 2026-06-21). MCD slid further toward the line (31.2, was 34.3) without crossing it. The "quality dip" cohort (KLAC, CAT, LRCX, ASML, AMD) continues to recover further away from bargain-bin territory, confirming last cycle's read that these are deep pullbacks inside intact trends, not damage.
Data as-of the 2026-09-11 close. Source: bargain-bin, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vs-SMA20 < 0 (one hit, confirmed programmatically). Prior scan: 2026-09-04-bargain-bin.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 First strict hit in the tracked window (HON) after two zero-hit cycles; no sourced cause available for the drop |
| Strict hit | HON — RSI 29.3, vs SMA20 -5.9% |
| Leaders | KLAC (1Y +88.3%), LRCX (1Y +158.0%), AMD (1Y +231.6%), CAT (1Y +89.8%) — all extending away from the bin |
| Laggards | LULU (1Y -40.3%, 1-year excess return -56.5), NKE (RSI 34.2, deeply broken), INTU (`thesis state: broken`, 1Y -51.3%) |
| Caveat | HON's news receipt is stale (fetched 2026-06-21) — the drop is reported with no sourced cause, not a guessed one |
What's Going On
HON clears the strict filter this cycle, and this desk cannot source a cause. ($202.36, RSI 29.3, vs SMA20 -5.9%, 7D -3.46%, 30D -14.01%, 3M -8.15%, -19.7% off its 52-week high, down regime) — one-year return sits at -0.25% (nearly flat), 1-year excess return -16.47%, vs 200-day -8.8%. This desk checked latest: fetched 2026-06-21, well outside this move's window, so no post-drop cause is available — this scan reports "cause unknown," not a guess. Structurally, HON has moved from "sliding toward the line" (RSI 34.7 last cycle) to a genuine strict hit in a single week.
MCD slid further toward the line without crossing it. ($252.53, RSI 31.2, was 34.3 on 09-04; vs SMA20 -4%, 30D -8.4%) — one-year deficit widened again to -18.12% from -19.34% is roughly flat, vs 200-day -14.4%. Now the closest name to HON without a strict hit.
The "quality dip" cohort continues extending away from bargain-bin territory. KLAC ($180.64, RSI 44.8, 1Y +88.3%, vs 200-day +4.5%), CAT ($818.57, RSI 47.7, 1Y +89.76%, vs 200-day +5.1%), LRCX ($298.22, RSI 45.2, 1Y +158.02%, vs 200-day +12.9%), ASML ($1,698.95, RSI 46.8, 1Y +111.27%, vs 200-day +13.6%), and AMD ($516.13, RSI 58, 1Y +231.55%, vs 200-day +48.8%) all remain comfortably positive on the year with intact 200-day cushions — the same read as last cycle, confirmed further.
INTU's thesis state: broken flag persists, worsening again. ($321.57, RSI 43.8, -54.39% off its 52-week high) — one-year deficit widened to -51.32% (was -50.22% last cycle), vs 200-day -23.5%. No price level has cleared this flag across multiple cycles now; the chart keeps deteriorating alongside it.
LULU remains deeply broken despite recovering off its own near-strict-hit. ($98.97, RSI 33.9, was 31.8 on 09-04, a mild recovery; vs SMA20 -13.3%, 1Y -40.3%, 1-year excess return -56.52, vs 200-day -34.7%) — the RSI bounce is not a repair; every long-horizon field stays deeply negative.
COST's one-year return deepened further into negative territory. ($904.77, RSI 35.5, was 38.1; 1Y -6.18%, was -4.2%; vs 200-day -5.8%) — continuing the flip flagged last cycle, now with a wider deficit.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-04 → 2026-09-11)
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| HON crosses the strict line — RSI 34.7→29.3, vs SMA20 -5.9% | First strict hit in the tracked window; no sourced cause (stale news receipt) |
| MCD slides closer without crossing — RSI 34.3→31.2 | One-year deficit widened to -18.12% |
| Quality-dip cohort extends further away from the bin — LRCX 1Y +? →+158.02%, AMD →+231.55% | KLAC, CAT, LRCX, ASML, AMD all stayed positive and intact |
| INTU's broken-thesis flag worsens again — 1Y deficit -50.22%→-51.32% | No price action has cleared this flag across multiple cycles |
| COST's negative 1Y deepens — -4.2%→-6.18% | Continuing the flip from positive flagged last cycle |
| LULU recovers RSI slightly but stays deeply broken — RSI 31.8→33.9 | Every long-horizon field (1Y -40.3%, vs 200-day -34.7%) stays deeply negative |
How To Read The Board
This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime/trend labels describe the chart, not a recommendation, and thesis state: broken (INTU) is a hard override that no price level or earnings print has cleared across multiple cycles. HON's strict hit this cycle is reported with an explicit gap: the news receipt on file predates this drop by nearly three months, so this desk states "cause unknown" rather than inferring one from memory. Per the desk's long-horizon discipline, KLAC/CAT/LRCX/ASML/AMD's continued positive one-year returns and intact 200-day cushions confirm these remain deep pullbacks inside intact trends, not the start of anything broken. LULU's RSI recovery off last cycle's near-strict-hit is not a repair — every long-horizon field stays deeply negative, and this scan treats the two signals (short-window RSI, long-horizon trend) separately rather than letting one stand in for the other.
Price Table
Strict Hit — Deep Discount, Below RSI 30 And 20-Day Average
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HON | $202.36 | 29.3 | -5.9% | -3.46% | -14.01% | -0.25% | -8.8% | 🔴 Strict hit, cause unknown |
Closest Misses
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | $252.53 | 31.2 | -4% | -1.24% | -8.4% | -18.12% | -14.4% | 🟡 Sliding toward the line |
| LULU | $98.97 | 33.9 | -13.3% | -1.63% | -18.12% | -40.3% | -34.7% | 🔴 Deeply broken |
| NKE | $36.80 | 34.2 | -5.7% | -4.17% | -9.16% | -50.49% | -27.7% | 🔴 Deeply broken |
| DPZ | $311.60 | 34.8 | -7.8% | -8.64% | -11.91% | -31.76% | -14.2% | 🔴 Weak |
| COST | $904.77 | 35.5 | -3.5% | -1.2% | -4.72% | -6.18% | -5.8% | 🟡 1Y turned negative |
| LOW | $196.82 | 33.8 | -5.5% | -3.73% | -8.87% | -27.75% | -16.5% | 🔴 Weak, thesis state intact |
| HD | $308.74 | 32.3 | -5.6% | -3.83% | -10.1% | -27.08% | -10.1% | 🔴 Weak |
| BKNG | $173.92 | 30.0 | -12.7% | -10.02% | -18.06% | -20.92% | -6.3% | 🔴 Weak |
Quality Dips (Deep Pullback, Trend Intact, Extending Away From The Bin)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | $180.64 | 44.8 | -13.26% | +88.3% | +4.5% | 🟢 Intact |
| CAT | $818.57 | 47.7 | -4.33% | +89.76% | +5.1% | 🟢 Intact |
| LRCX | $298.22 | 45.2 | -8.55% | +158.02% | +12.9% | 🟢 Intact |
| ASML | $1,698.95 | 46.8 | -6.14% | +111.27% | +13.6% | 🟢 Intact |
| AMD | $516.13 | 58 | 6.87% | +231.55% | +48.8% | 🟢 Intact |
Broken Thesis Override
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | $321.57 | 43.8 | -51.32% | -23.5% | 🔴 `thesis state: broken`, worsening |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25): None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): HON (29.3, strict hit), BKNG (30.0), MCD (31.2), HD (32.3), LULU (33.9), LOW (33.8), NKE (34.2), DPZ (34.8), COST (35.5), PEP (39.5), UBER (41.4), AVGO (42.2), ADBE (42.5), ZS (45.8), KLAC (44.8), LRCX (45.2), ASML (46.8) — a genuinely crowded oversold tier this cycle, split between structurally damaged retail/consumer names and intact-trend quality dips.
Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+): The remaining names, led by QCOM (66.3) and META (67.2).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| KLAC / CAT / LRCX / ASML | Deep pullback, RSI 44-47 | Intact 1Y trend (+88% to +158%), extending away from the bin, not damage |
| COST | Watch below $900 | RSI 35.5, 1Y turned negative (-6.18%) — a genuine quality name testing a real level |
| HON | Not yet — cause unknown | Strict hit with no sourced driver; wait for a news receipt or a second cycle before treating as a discount |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | KLAC, CAT, LRCX, ASML, AMD | Deep pullback inside a strongly intact multi-year trend |
| 🔍 WATCH | HON | Fresh strict hit, no sourced cause — verify before acting |
| 🔍 WATCH | MCD, COST | Both sliding toward oversold with deteriorating long-horizon fields |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | INTU | `thesis state: broken`, worsening for multiple straight cycles |
| ⚠️ AVOID | LULU, NKE, HD, LOW, BKNG | Deeply negative 1Y and below their 200-day; cheap RSI, not a bargain |
What To Watch Next
- HON: confirm whether next cycle's pull surfaces a cause for this drop — the current receipt is nearly three months stale.
- MCD: did it cross the strict line next cycle, or stabilize just above it?
- COST: one-year return has now been negative for two straight cycles and deepened — watch whether it stabilizes or keeps widening.
- INTU: the
brokenflag has held across multiple cycles with the chart worsening each time — no trigger currently visible to clear it.
Sources
- bargain-bin (2026-09-11)
- latest (fetched 2026-06-21, stale relative to this move)
- 2026-09-04-bargain-bin (prior scan, comparison basis)
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.