Bargain Bin Scan — Second Straight Zero Strict Hit Cycle As LULU Cracks Toward The Line On A Real Earnings Adjacent Drop, AVGO's 200 Day Test Resolves Down While QCOM's Resolves Up, MCD And HON Both Slide Toward Oversold, COST's One Year Return Flips Negative

Scan

Bargain Bin Scan — Second Straight Zero Strict Hit Cycle As LULU Cracks Toward The Line On A Real Earnings Adjacent Drop, AVGO's 200 Day Test Resolves Down While QCOM's Resolves Up, MCD And HON Both Slide Toward Oversold, COST's One Year Return Flips Negative

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 71 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-28-bargain-bin.md

No name clears the strict bargain-bin filter for a second straight cycle — RSI below 30 AND price below its 20-day average — but this cycle's closest approach is a real move, not a quiet drift. LULU fell -17.38% on the session at 8.7x average volume, landing at RSI 31.8 and -15.4% below its 20-day average — a hair from the strict line — and this desk's news pull (fetched 2026-09-04, not stale) surfaces coverage of a Q2 print showing a 4% revenue decline and a significant cut to full-year guidance, though the scheduled 2026-09-03 earnings date remains overdue-unconfirmed in this desk's event ledger. AVGO's 200-day test, flagged unresolved for two straight cycles, resolved downward this cycle — vs-SMA200 fell to -3% from -0.2%, RSI dropped to 38.1 from 42.7, and its one-year return cooled to +16.92% from +20.4%. QCOM's own 200-day test resolved the other way — vs-SMA200 crossed back to +0.5% from -2.2%, RSI recovering to 53.1 from 48.5. MCD and HON both slid toward the strict oversold line this cycle — MCD's RSI fell to 34.3 from 44.2 (its one-year deficit widening to -19.34% from -15.1%), HON's to 34.7 from 37.7 — both now the closest names to a strict hit after LULU. COST's one-year return flipped negative for the first time in this tracked window, to -4.2% from +0.05%, with RSI cooling sharply to 38.1 from 48.1. The rest of last cycle's "quality dip" cohort — KLAC, CAT, LRCX, ASML, AMD — all recovered further off their own RSI lows while extending their one-year gains, moving further from bargain-bin territory rather than closer to it. DE broke out this cycle, RSI climbing to 68.3 from 54.9, one-year to +46.04% from +28.3%, now just -1.75% off its 52-week high. ORCL's recovery extended into an eighth straight confirming cycle, one-year deficit narrowing to -28.8% from -37.2%. INTU's thesis: broken flag survived a tenth straight cycle and the underlying picture worsened further — one-year deficit widened to -50.22% from -46.4%, vs-SMA200 to -22.1% from -17.7%.

Data as-of the 2026-09-04 close. Source: bargain-bin, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vs-SMA20 < 0 (zero hits, confirmed programmatically), then widened to the next-closest cluster — ranked by long-horizon quality (1-year change, vs-SMA200, thesis state) crossed with discount depth (RSI, vs-SMA20). Prior scan: 2026-08-28-bargain-bin (2026-08-28 close).


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Second straight zero-strict-hit cycle, but this cycle's near-miss (LULU) is a real earnings-adjacent drop, not a quiet drift, and two names (MCD, HON) slid closer to the line behind it
Strict hit None — LULU is closest at RSI 31.8, vs-SMA20 -15.4%, driven by an 8.7x-volume session
200-day test resolved down AVGO: vs-SMA200 -0.2%→-3%, RSI 42.7→38.1
200-day test resolved up QCOM: vs-SMA200 -2.2%→+0.5%, RSI 48.5→53.1
Sliding toward the line MCD (RSI 44.2→34.3, 1Y -15.1%→-19.34%), HON (RSI 37.7→34.7)
One-year return flips negative COST: +0.05%→-4.2%, RSI 48.1→38.1
Quality dips extend further away from the bin KLAC, CAT, LRCX, ASML, AMD all recovered RSI and extended one-year gains
Breakout DE: RSI 54.9→68.3, regime now `breakout`, -1.75% off its 52-week high
Broken thesis — tenth straight cycle INTU, one-year deficit widened to -50.22% from -46.4%
Key insight Zero strict hits again is not "nothing moving" — the closest-miss tier reshuffled hard this cycle, with a real earnings-driven near-miss (LULU) and two 200-day tests resolving in opposite directions on the same day

What's Going On

No name clears the strict bargain-bin filter for a second straight cycle, but this cycle's closest approach is a genuine, high-volume move. LULU ($100.61, RSI 31.8, vs-SMA20 -15.4%, change1d -17.38%, relative volume 8.69x average, -55.48% off its 52-week high) fell hard on the session. This desk's news pull for LULU (fetched 2026-09-04, ok, not stale) surfaces coverage headlined "Lululemon's Q2 results reveal a 4% revenue decline and significant cut to full-year guidance" — but 2026-09-03-lulu-earnings still records the scheduled date as overdue-unconfirmed, meaning this desk's own event ledger has not yet promoted the print to a captured, verified result. This scan reports the news coverage as coverage, not as a confirmed print — the price action (a near-strict-hit drop on nearly 9x average volume) is verified directly against the summary and stands on its own regardless of the ledger's confirmation status. LULU's one-year return sits at -51.18%, 1-year alpha -69.83%, -34.1% below its 200-day — a genuinely broken structure, not a bargain, even before the print question is resolved.

AVGO's 200-day test, flagged as unresolved for two straight cycles running, resolved downward this cycle. ($357.90, RSI 38.1, was 42.7; vs-SMA20 -5.4%, 30D -14.44%) — vs-SMA200 fell to -3% from -0.2%, a clean break below the level that had sat almost exactly on the line for two cycles. One-year return cooled to +16.92% from +20.4%, and 1-year alpha is now -1.73% — AVGO has moved from "testing directly, unresolved" to "below its 200-day, cooling" in a single cycle. QCOM's own 200-day test resolved the opposite way in the same session. ($168.74, RSI 53.1, was 48.5; 30D +7.12%) — vs-SMA200 crossed back to +0.5% from -2.2%, and one-year return improved to +5.65% from +2.1%. The two names sat in nearly identical positions last cycle; this cycle they diverged cleanly.

MCD and HON both slid toward the strict oversold line this cycle, both worth flagging as the closest names behind LULU. MCD ($255.69, RSI 34.3, was 44.2 — fell sharply; vs-SMA20 -4.3%, 30D -6.68%) saw its one-year deficit widen to -19.34% from -15.1% and its 200-day gap widen to -13.6% from -10.8% — deteriorating on every field, not just cooling. HON ($209.61, RSI 34.7, was 37.7; vs-SMA20 -5.3%, 30D -15.52%) shows a similar pattern, its 200-day gap widening to -5.4% from -1.8% even as its one-year return stayed roughly flat at +3.4%. Neither clears the strict line, but both are now closer to it than any name besides LULU, and both moved the wrong direction to get there.

COST's one-year return flipped negative for the first time in this tracked window. ($915.74, RSI 38.1, was 48.1 — cooled sharply; vs-SMA20 -3.3%, 30D -2.79%) — one-year change is now -4.2%, down from +0.05% last cycle, with the 200-day gap widening to -4.6% from -1.5%. This is a name whose long-horizon picture just crossed from "near-flat" to "genuinely negative" in a single cycle — worth tracking directly rather than lumping in with the marginal cohort.

The "quality dip" cohort flagged last cycle all recovered further, moving away from bargain-bin territory rather than toward it. KLAC ($185.60, RSI 47.4, was 35.9; one-year +112.53%, was +96.4%; vs-SMA200 +8.2%, was +3.2%), CAT ($813.94, RSI 45.4, was 38.4; one-year +93.69%, vs-SMA200 +5.3%, was +4.3%), LRCX ($307.65, RSI 48.9, was 44.4; one-year +206.36%, was +190.0%; vs-SMA200 +17.9%), ASML ($1,714.88, RSI 48.3, was 43.4; one-year +127.61%, vs-SMA200 +16.1%), and AMD ($477.57, RSI 49.7, was 44.8; one-year +195.18%, was +176.2%; vs-SMA200 +40.1%, was +38.7%) all extended their one-year gains and cooled their RSI further away from the strict threshold this cycle — a clean confirmation that these are deep pullbacks inside intact trends, exactly as flagged, and now less relevant to a bargain-hunting screen than they were two cycles ago.

WMT recovered further off its own strict-hit line from two cycles back. ($107.14, RSI 45.7, was 33.2; vs-SMA20 -1.6%, was -6.5%; 30D -4.63%, was -9.74%) — one-year return sits at +6.15% (was +7.26%, comparable as the window rolled) with 1-year alpha still negative at -12.5%, and vs-SMA200 improved to -9.7% from -13.1%. Still a trend under test, not a resolved story either way, but meaningfully further from oversold than it was two cycles ago.

DE broke out this cycle. ($693.53, RSI 68.3, was 54.9; 30D +13.32%, was +3.17%; regime now breakout) — one-year return jumped to +46.04% from +28.3%, vs-SMA200 to +22.1% from +12.0%, and the stock now sits just -1.75% off its 52-week high, essentially testing new highs.

ORCL's recovery extended into an eighth straight confirming cycle, and INTU's broken-thesis flag survived a tenth straight cycle with the underlying picture worsening further. ORCL ($158.78, RSI 60.9, was 56.1; 30D cooled to +9.97% from +28.12% as the sharp prior move rolled out of the window, but one-year deficit narrowed to -28.8% from -37.2% and vs-SMA200 improved to -5.9% from -11.6%) continues its multi-cycle repair. INTU ($332.70, RSI 46.6, was 60; -52.81% off its 52-week high) carries the same thesis: broken flag it has held across ten consecutive cycles now, and this cycle the chart itself deteriorated further — one-year deficit widened to -50.22% from -46.4%, vs-SMA200 to -22.1% from -17.7%. Per desk doctrine, no price level clears this flag; the stock is simply getting worse alongside it.

LOW and ISRG's flag/chart divergence persists, moving in opposite directions this cycle. LOW ($204.45, RSI 41.2, was 41.3 — flat; one-year -22.72%, was -19.2%; vs-SMA200 -13.5%, was -12.2%) deteriorated further while thesisState stays intact. ISRG ($366.70, RSI 43, was 45.7; one-year -19.32%, was -21.37% — improved slightly; vs-SMA200 -20.9%, was -20.5% — widened slightly) moved in mixed directions on its two long-horizon fields. Both remain flagged, not resolved.


What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-28 → 2026-09-04)

Change Read
Second straight zero-strict-hit cycle, but the near-miss is now a real print — LULU fell to RSI 31.8 on an 8.69x-volume session News pull discusses a Q2 revenue decline and guidance cut; event ledger still `overdue-unconfirmed`
AVGO's 200-day test resolved down — vs-SMA200 -0.2%→-3% Two cycles of "testing directly, unresolved" ended this cycle with a clean break below
QCOM's 200-day test resolved up — vs-SMA200 -2.2%→+0.5% Same starting position as AVGO last cycle, opposite outcome this cycle
MCD and HON both slid toward the strict line — MCD RSI 44.2→34.3, HON RSI 37.7→34.7 Both worsened on every long-horizon field, not just cooled
COST's one-year return flipped negative — +0.05%→-4.2% First negative one-year print for this name in this tracked window
Quality-dip cohort extended further away from the bin — KLAC 1Y +96.4%→+112.53%, LRCX +190.0%→+206.36% KLAC, CAT, LRCX, ASML, AMD all cooled their RSI and extended their one-year gains
DE broke out — RSI 54.9→68.3, regime now `breakout` One-year jumped to +46.04% from +28.3%, now -1.75% off its 52-week high
ORCL's recovery extended into an eighth confirming cycle — 1Y deficit -37.2%→-28.8% 30D cooled as the sharp prior move rolled out of the window, but the trend itself keeps repairing
INTU's broken-thesis flag survived a tenth cycle, chart worsened further — 1Y deficit -46.4%→-50.22% No price action clears this flag; the underlying picture is getting worse alongside it

How To Read The Board

This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime labels (collapse/downtrend/pullback/basing/breakout) describe the chart, not a recommendation. A second straight zero-strict-hit cycle does not mean nothing here moved — LULU's near-miss this cycle came with an 8.69x-volume session and real news coverage of a weak print, which is a genuinely different situation than a name drifting slowly toward RSI 30 on no news. AVGO and QCOM sitting at nearly identical 200-day positions last cycle and resolving in opposite directions this cycle is the clearest illustration this scan can offer that a "testing directly, unresolved" flag is not a coin flip waiting to be called — it is a real level that eventually breaks one way or the other, and this cycle both broke. Per the desk's long-horizon discipline, KLAC/CAT/LRCX/ASML/AMD's continued RSI recovery alongside extending one-year gains confirms these were deep pullbacks inside intact trends, not the start of anything broken — the same read stands stronger this cycle than last. thesis: broken (INTU) is a hard override: ten cycles in, no price level or earnings print has cleared it, and this cycle the underlying chart deteriorated further rather than stabilizing. LOW and ISRG's intact flags sitting against broken charts stay flagged, not resolved — the fact that the two fields moved in opposite directions for ISRG this cycle (200-day gap wider, one-year deficit narrower) is itself evidence this is a genuinely mixed situation, not a name quietly repairing or quietly breaking.


Price Table

Strict Hit — Deep Discount, Below RSI 30 And 20-Day Average

None this cycle, second straight cycle. LULU is the closest name at RSI 31.8, vs-SMA20 -15.4% — just above the strict line.

Closest Misses — This Cycle's Near-Hit And Sliding Names

Ticker Price RSI vs SMA20 1Y vs SMA200 Note
LULU $100.61 31.8 -15.4% -51.18% -34.1% -17.38% same-day drop at 8.69x volume; news discusses a Q2 print, event ledger unconfirmed
MCD $255.69 34.3 -4.3% -19.34% -13.6% Fell sharply from RSI 44.2, worsened on every field
HON $209.61 34.7 -5.3% +3.4% -5.4% Fell from RSI 37.7, 200-day gap widened
COST $915.74 38.1 -3.3% -4.2% -4.6% One-year return flipped negative this cycle
AVGO $357.90 38.1 -5.4% +16.92% -3% 200-day test resolved down from -0.2%
NKE $38.40 40.1 -3.6% -49.04% -25.3% Still deeply broken, roughly unchanged

Closest Misses — Quality Dips (Deep Pullback, Trend Intact, Extending Away From The Bin)

Ticker Price RSI 30D 1Y vs SMA200 Note
KLAC $185.60 47.4 -3.73% +112.5% +8.2% Recovered from RSI 35.9, extended the year
CAT $813.94 45.4 -6.56% +93.7% +5.3% Recovered from RSI 38.4
LRCX $307.65 48.9 +0.07% +206.4% +17.9% Recovered from RSI 44.4
ASML $1,714.88 48.3 +2.18% +127.6% +16.1% Recovered from RSI 43.4
AMD $477.57 49.7 -0.93% +195.2% +40.1% Recovered from RSI 44.8
QCOM $168.74 53.1 +7.12% +5.65% +0.5% 200-day test resolved up from -2.2%

Closest Misses — Genuinely Broken (Below SMA200, Negative Alpha)

Ticker Price RSI 30D 1Y vs SMA200 Note
TTD $14.43 46.5 -23.89% -72.2% -42.4% Improved slightly from -75.5%/-47.3% but still deeply broken
HD $321.05 37.8 -9.09% -22.02% -6.6% Deteriorated further from -19.0%/-4.3%
ISRGE $366.70 43 -2.27% -19.32% -20.9% Flag/chart divergence, mixed this cycle
LOW $204.45 41.2 -7.04% -22.72% -13.5% Flag/chart divergence, worsening

Flag/Chart Divergence (thesis state intact, chart broken)

Ticker Price RSI 1Y vs SMA200 Regime Note
LOW $204.45 41.2 -22.7% -13.5% downtrend Deteriorated on both fields
ISRGE $366.70 43 -19.3% -20.9% collapse Mixed — 1Y improved slightly, 200-day gap widened slightly

Recovered / Extended (for reference — opposite the bin's usual theme)

Ticker Price RSI 30D 1Y vs SMA200 Note
WMT $107.14 45.7 -4.63% +6.15% -9.7% Recovered further off its own strict-hit line two cycles back
SPGI $443.51 57.7 +8.17% -17.91% -1.2% Improved slightly, still testing near its 200-day
ORCL $158.78 60.9 +9.97% -28.8% -5.9% Eighth straight confirming cycle
DE $693.53 68.3 +13.32% +46.04% +22.1% Broke out this cycle, -1.75% off its 52-week high
NOW $141.26 61 +20.51% -21.4% +19.1% Extended
CRM $259.23 76.6 +34.33% +6.24% +29.1% Still `parabolic`
ADBE $266.51 48.9 +2.77% -22.6% -0.5% Cooled sharply
INTU $332.70 46.6 +1.45% -50.22% -22.1% broken — tenth straight cycle, chart worsened further
WDAY $195.79 56.1 +14.74% -15.29% +22.2% Extended
SAP $215.11 59.4 +9.01% -20.91% +9.5% Extended
BKNG $193.29 41.9 -6.63% -13.49% +4% Cooled sharply, cushion compressed from +10.6%
PLTR $174.33 54.2 +10.04% +11.65% +15.2% Steady, thesis intact

(Remaining tracked names — MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, TMO, DIS, ZS, CEG, PEP, CME, ANET, MRVL, NFLX, UBER, DPZ — sit at RSI 34-77, mixed but not oversold; omitted from a bargain-bin screen by design.)

Tier Analysis

Second straight zero-strict-hit cycle, but the near-miss is real — LULU's -17.38% same-day drop at 8.69x volume, tied to news coverage of a weak print, is a genuinely different situation than a slow drift toward oversold.

Two 200-day tests resolved in opposite directions on the same day — AVGO broke below, QCOM crossed back above, from nearly identical starting positions last cycle.

Sliding toward the line — MCD and HON both worsened on every long-horizon field while cooling toward RSI 30.

One-year return flip — COST crossed from near-flat to genuinely negative on the year.

Quality dips extend further away from the bin — KLAC, CAT, LRCX, ASML, AMD all cooled their RSI and extended their one-year gains, confirming last cycle's deep-pullback read.

Breakout — DE, now testing new highs after a sharp multi-cycle repair.

Broken thesis, worsening — hard avoid — INTU. Ten consecutive cycles with the flag unchanged, and the underlying chart deteriorated further this cycle.

Flag/chart divergence, mixed — LOW and ISRG both carry an intact thesis flag against broken charts; the two fields moved in opposite directions for ISRG this cycle, worth a direct check.


Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI vs SMA200 Setup
LULU $100.61 Verify the print before treating as cheap 31.8 -34.1% Near-strict-hit drop on 8.69x volume; news discusses a weak print, event ledger unconfirmed
MCD / HON $255.69 / $209.61 Watch — sliding toward the line, worsening 34.3 / 34.7 -13.6% / -5.4% Both deteriorated on every long-horizon field this cycle
KLAC / CAT / LRCX / ASML / AMD $185.60 / $813.94 / $307.65 / $1,714.88 / $477.57 Deep pullback, extending away from the bin 45.4-49.7 +5.3% to +40.1% All recovered RSI and extended one-year gains this cycle
AVGO $357.90 200-day test resolved down — watch for confirmation 38.1 -3% Broke below the level it tested unresolved for two cycles
INTU $332.70 Avoid 46.6 -22.1% Broken-thesis flag overrides any price level, ten cycles in and worsening

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
⚠️ VERIFY BEFORE ACTING — NEAR-STRICT-HIT ON REAL NEWS LULU News pull discusses a weak Q2 print; event ledger still unconfirmed
🔍 WATCH — SLIDING TOWARD OVERSOLD, WORSENING MCD, HON, COST All deteriorated on 1-year and/or vs-SMA200 this cycle while cooling toward RSI 30
🔍 WATCH — DEEP PULLBACK, EXTENDING AWAY FROM THE BIN KLAC, CAT, LRCX, ASML, AMD, QCOM Cooling RSI paired with extending one-year gains and improving/positive 200-day cushions
⚠️ AVOID — 200-DAY TEST RESOLVED DOWN AVGO Broke below the level it had tested, unresolved, for two straight cycles
❌ AVOID — STRUCTURALLY BROKEN TTD, NKE, HD Below their 200-days with negative 1-year alpha; not a discount
❌ AVOID — BROKEN THESIS, WORSENING INTU Ten straight cycles with the flag unchanged; the chart itself deteriorated further this cycle
🔍 VERIFY — FLAG/CHART DIVERGENCE LOW, ISRG `thesis: intact` against broken charts, moving in mixed directions
🔒 BREAKOUT — DON'T CHASE THE ENTRY, WATCH THE FOLLOW-THROUGH DE Just broke out to -1.75% off its 52-week high after a sharp multi-cycle repair
⚠️ EXTENDED — DON'T CHASE WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM, PLTR Positive 30-day territory; several extended well past a fresh-entry zone
🔍 ROUGHLY FLAT / MARGINAL WMT, SPGI, ORCL, BKNG Off the strict list, mixed to improving on the long-horizon fields

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether LULU's Q2 print gets confirmed in the event ledger News already discusses the numbers; the ledger itself still reads `overdue-unconfirmed`
Whether MCD or HON crosses the strict RSI<30 line next cycle Both slid closer this cycle while worsening on long-horizon fields
Whether COST's one-year return stabilizes negative or recovers First negative print in this tracked window
Whether AVGO's break below its 200-day extends or reverses Resolved down this cycle after two cycles testing the line directly
DE's follow-through after breaking out Just cleared to within 1.75% of its 52-week high after a sharp repair
INTU's broken-thesis flag Ten cycles unchanged and the chart worsened further — watch the next fundamentals refresh
LOW and ISRG's thesis flags vs. their charts Both `intact` per the data despite broken structures, moving in mixed directions this cycle

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year change/1-year alpha/vs 200-day): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — bargain-bin.
  • LULU news check: latest (fetched 2026-09-04, ok, not stale) — Q2 revenue decline and guidance cut coverage; event ledger 2026-09-03-lulu-earnings (overdue-unconfirmed).
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.