Bargain Bin
Bargain Bin
2026-07-31 Bargain-Bin Scan — QCOM Becomes The Lone Strict Hit As TSLA's Discount Eases Off, The Software/Semis Rotation Fades, INTU Bounces A Fifth Straight Cycle
QCOM is now the only name clearing the strict screen — RSI fell to 29.3 (was 36.5) as its 30-day decline deepened to -18.86% — while TSLA's RSI climbed to 31.9 (was 27.4), moving it off the strict list for the first time in this tracked window even as its 30-day discount kept widening to -26.83%. The software/semis same-session rotation flagged over the prior two cycles largely faded: WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, and CRM all cooled from their extended RSI highs, while MRVL, LRCX, AMD, and ASML — the names that sold off hard in that rotation — broadly recovered, leaving QCOM alone as the one name from that complex still deteriorating. INTU's broken-thesis flag has now survived a fifth consecutive cycle of price improvement (30D +18.87%, up from +18.01%) — still a hard avoid regardless of the chart.
Data as-of the 2026-07-31 close. Source: summaries/bargain-bin.json, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vs SMA20 < 0, then widened to the next-closest cluster — ranked by thesis quality × discount depth. COST's data refreshed to the current close this cycle (no staleness carryover). Prior scan: 2026-07-28-bargain-bin (2026-07-28 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 QCOM became the lone strict hit as TSLA's RSI moved above 30; the software/semis rotation from the prior two cycles largely faded |
| Strict hit | QCOM (RSI 29.3, `collapse`, -43.2% from 52wk high, unrated) — the only name below RSI 30 this cycle |
| Dropped off the strict list | TSLA (RSI 31.9, was 27.4) — RSI improved even as the 30-day discount deepened further to -26.83% |
| Closest misses | TSLA (31.9), CAT (36.2) — both below their 20-day average |
| Broken thesis — avoid regardless of price | INTU (RSI 59.2, thesis flag explicitly `broken`, -60.2% from high, 30D +18.87% — a fifth straight cycle of gains) |
| Rotation faded | WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM all cooled from last cycle's extended RSI highs; MRVL, LRCX, AMD, ASML all recovered from that same cycle's selloff — QCOM alone kept deteriorating |
| Key insight | QCOM standing alone on the strict screen while the rest of the software/semis complex broadly normalized is this cycle's clearest signal — a single-name deterioration inside an otherwise stabilizing group, not evidence of a wider rotation |
What's Going On
The strict bargain-bin filter — RSI below 30 and price below its 20-day average — returns only one name this cycle. QCOM ($147.61, RSI 29.3, vs-20-day -14.8%, 30D -18.86%, -43.2% off its 52-week high) deepened from RSI 36.5 two cycles ago, the steepest deterioration of any name tracked in this screen — it is now the sole name still falling from what was a five-name semis-adjacent selloff two cycles back. TSLA ($311.21, RSI 31.9, vs-20-day -14.5%, 30D -26.83%, -37.6% off its 52-week high) dropped off the strict list for the first time in this tracked window — its RSI improved to just above the strict cutoff even as its 30-day discount kept widening, a genuinely mixed signal: getting technically less oversold while getting cheaper on a rolling basis. It carries a thesis flag of intact but remains death-crossed and in collapse regime.
Only two names sit in the closest-miss tier this cycle — a much thinner cluster than prior cycles. TSLA (above) and CAT ($814.81, RSI 36.2, vs-20-day -8.5%, 30D -17.66%) round out the group; MRVL and LRCX, which sat in this tier last cycle, both climbed well clear of it as the semis complex broadly recovered (see below).
INTU carries the same explicit thesis: broken flag from the last four scans (RSI 59.2, -60.2% off its 52-week high, vs-20-day +8.3% — well above its 20-day average) after another price gain (30D now +18.87%, up from +18.01% last cycle). This is the fifth consecutive cycle of price improvement on a name whose thesis flag has not moved. Per desk doctrine, no bounce clears a broken-thesis flag — this stays an avoid regardless of the chart.
The software/semis same-session split flagged over the prior two cycles largely faded this cycle. The software names that had rallied hard for two straight sessions all cooled from their extended RSI readings: WDAY ($160.34, RSI 61.9, was 65.5; 30D +23.08%, was +29.22%), SAP ($183.62, RSI 64.7, was 64.8; 30D +15.38%, was +15.67%), ADBE ($250.41, RSI 59.8, was 63.5; 30D +18.69%, was +20.71%), NOW ($111.23, RSI 56.6, was 58.0; 30D +5.13%, was +10.65%), and CRM ($184.02, RSI 59.7, was 60.8; 30D +12.74%, was +14.92%) — all still positive on the month but meaningfully cooled from their extended highs. The semis-adjacent names that sold off hard the same session mostly recovered: MRVL ($187.56, RSI 41.6, was 34.3; 30D -31.04%, was -37.17%), LRCX ($293.02, RSI 43.7, was 34.2; 30D -25.11%, was -34.39%), AMD ($476.15, RSI 45.3, was 39.4; 30D -11.97%, was -15.73%), and ASML ($1,629.00, RSI 42.8, was 37.1; 30D -11.5%, was -15.94%) all improved. QCOM alone kept deteriorating — this cycle's clear exception to what otherwise looks like a fading rotation rather than a durable divergence.
ORCL extended its recovery for a third straight cycle. RSI improved further to 44.1 (was 33.2 two cycles ago), 30D improved to -8.55% (was -18.53%), price up to $129.87 (was $119.96) — still -62.4% off its 52-week high and in collapse regime, but this is now a genuinely multi-cycle confirming trend rather than a single bounce.
The prior cycle's "strength pocket" names (DE, HON, DPZ) all cooled meaningfully this cycle, the mirror image of the software rally's own cooldown: DE (RSI 48.6, was 66.3; 30D -5.5%, was +2.37% — price fell from $639.84 to $599.47), HON (RSI 59.2, was 65.7; 30D +9.61%, was +8.45%), and DPZ (RSI 62.4, was 68.7; 30D +14.22%, was +19.19%) — all pulled back from extended readings.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-28 → 2026-07-31)
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| QCOM deepened into the strict list — RSI 36.5→29.3, 30D -13.69%→-18.86% | The steepest deterioration in this screen; now the sole name still falling from the earlier semis-adjacent selloff |
| TSLA dropped off the strict list — RSI 27.4→31.9, 30D -25.35%→-26.83% | RSI improved even as the discount deepened further — a genuinely mixed signal |
| MRVL/LRCX both climbed out of the closest-miss tier — MRVL RSI 34.3→41.6, LRCX 34.2→43.7 | The semis-complex selloff flagged two cycles ago broadly recovered |
| The software rally cooled from its extended RSI highs — WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM all eased from two straight sessions of gains | The same-session rotation faded rather than confirming into a third cycle |
| INTU's broken-thesis flag persists through a fifth bounce — 30D +18.01%→+18.87% | Avoid stands regardless of the improving chart |
| ORCL extended its recovery for a third straight cycle — RSI 33.2→44.1, 30D -18.53%→-8.55% | Now a genuinely multi-cycle confirming trend, not a single bounce |
| The "strength pocket" (DE/HON/DPZ) all cooled — DE RSI 66.3→48.6 | Mirror image of the software rally's own cooldown |
| COST's row refreshed — no longer stale | Data quality issue from the prior cycle resolved |
How To Read The Board
This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime labels (collapse/downtrend/pullback/basing) describe the chart, not a recommendation — QCOM's fresh entry into the strict list this cycle is a deterioration worth tracking, not automatically a discount worth buying. thesis: broken is a hard override: no price level makes a broken-thesis name attractive, and INTU should be avoided regardless of discount, five bounces in. This cycle's real lesson is that the software/semis rotation flagged over the prior two cycles largely faded — most of the semis-adjacent names recovered while the software names cooled from their extremes, leaving QCOM as a genuine single-name story rather than evidence the rotation is still running.
Price Table
Strict Hit — Deep Discount, Unresolved
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 1D | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Thesis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | $147.61 | 29.3 | -2.6% | -11.6% | -18.9% | -43.2% | collapse | unrated | The only strict hit this cycle; deepened from RSI 36.5 two cycles ago |
Closest Misses — Below 20-Day Average, RSI 30-38
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Thesis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | $311.21 | 31.9 | -0.6% | -26.8% | -37.6% | collapse | intact | Dropped off the strict list; RSI improved even as the discount deepened |
| CAT | $814.81 | 36.2 | -8.3% | -17.7% | -24.1% | pullback | unrated | Quality industrial name, real discount |
Approaching Oversold — Ranked By Quality × Discount
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Thesis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | $556.71 | 37.9 | -6.5% | -9.2% | -30.1% | downtrend | unrated | Fresh entrant to this tier — a mega-cap name at a real discount |
| KLAC | $182.82 | 38.3 | -13.2% | -31.3% | -40.5% | pullback | unrated | Deepest 30D discount in this tier |
| MRVL | $187.56 | 41.6 | -3.4% | -31.0% | -43.1% | pullback | unrated | Recovering, still below its 20-day average |
| ASML | $1,629.00 | 42.8 | -7.2% | -11.5% | -18.6% | pullback | unrated | Recovering from the semis-complex selloff |
| LRCX | $293.02 | 43.7 | -4.0% | -25.1% | -33.2% | pullback | unrated | Recovering, still below its 20-day average |
| AMD | $476.15 | 45.3 | -8.8% | -12.0% | -18.6% | pullback | unrated | Recovered meaningfully from -15.73% last cycle |
Recovered / Extended (for reference — opposite the bin's usual theme)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 1D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | $129.87 | 44.1 | +1.8% | -8.55% | -62.4% | collapse | Extended its recovery for a third straight cycle |
| WDAY | $160.34 | 61.9 | +1.4% | +23.08% | -35.8% | downtrend | Cooled from last cycle's extended high |
| SAP | $183.62 | 64.7 | +1.5% | +15.38% | -38.7% | downtrend | Roughly steady |
| ADBE | $250.41 | 59.8 | +1.0% | +18.69% | -32.5% | downtrend | Cooled slightly |
| NOW | $111.23 | 56.6 | +1.1% | +5.13% | -42.9% | downtrend | Cooled meaningfully from +10.65% |
| CRM | $184.02 | 59.7 | +1.8% | +12.74% | -31.6% | downtrend | Cooled slightly |
| INTU | $316.07 | 59.2 | +0.2% | +18.87% | -60.2% | downtrend | broken | Fifth straight bounce; thesis flag unchanged — avoid |
| DE | $599.47 | 48.6 | -1.9% | -5.5% | -11.1% | basing | Cooled sharply from a 66.3 strength pocket |
| HON | $243.05 | 59.2 | +0.5% | +9.61% | -6.6% | basing | Cooled from a strength pocket |
| DPZ | $347.44 | 62.4 | -1.4% | +14.22% | -25.9% | downtrend | Cooled from a strength pocket |
(24 remaining tracked names — MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, TMO, COST, WMT, NKE, LULU, MCD, AVGO, ANET, NFLX, DIS, ZS, HD, LOW, CEG, PEP, SPGI, CME, BKNG, UBER, ISRG, PLTR, TTD — sit at RSI 40-70, mixed but not oversold; omitted from a bargain-bin screen by design.)
Tier Analysis
Strict hit, single-name deterioration — QCOM is now the only name clearing the strict screen, deepening from RSI 36.5 two cycles ago while the rest of its former cohort recovered. collapse regime, unrated — the discount is real, no confirmed base.
Dropped off, mixed signal — TSLA's RSI improved above the strict cutoff even as its 30-day discount widened further — worth reading as two separate signals, not a clean resolution either way.
Broken thesis — hard avoid — INTU. The explicit thesis: broken tag has now survived a fifth consecutive scan of price improvement; the bounce does not clear it.
Recovering from the prior rotation — MRVL, LRCX, AMD, ASML all climbed well clear of their prior-cycle discount lows; KLAC remains the deepest of this group.
Fresh discount entrant — META, a mega-cap name newly appearing in this screen at RSI 37.9 with a real 30-day decline.
Rotation faded, not confirmed as a trend — WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM all cooled from two straight sessions of extension; DE, HON, DPZ (the prior cycle's strength pocket) cooled the same direction. Read this as the earlier same-session split settling down, not evidence of a durable divergence continuing.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | vs 52wk High | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | $147.61 | Verify a base, not just the RSI level | 29.3 | -43.2% | Deepest deterioration in this screen; no confirmed floor |
| TSLA | $311.21 | Verify a base — discount still widening | 31.9 | -37.6% | RSI improved off the list even as the 30-day discount deepened further |
| CAT | $814.81 | Watch for stabilization | 36.2 | -24.1% | Quality industrial name at a real discount, unresolved |
| INTU | $316.07 | Avoid | 59.2 | -60.2% | Broken-thesis flag overrides any price-based entry logic, fifth bounce in |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔍 WATCH (contrarian probe only) | QCOM | Only strict hit, discount deepening, no confirmed base |
| 🔍 WATCH (mixed signal) | TSLA | RSI improved off the strict list, discount still widening |
| 🔍 WATCH (discounted, unresolved) | CAT, META, KLAC, MRVL, ASML, LRCX, AMD | Real discounts without a confirmed stabilization signal |
| ❌ AVOID — BROKEN THESIS | INTU | Explicit broken-thesis flag; do not buy the drawdown regardless of price |
| ⚠️ COOLED FROM EXTENDED — DON'T CHASE | WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM, DE, HON, DPZ | Pulled back from last cycle's extended readings |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| QCOM's next print | Deepest deterioration in this screen this cycle — confirm whether it stabilizes or continues falling |
| TSLA's discount vs RSI divergence | RSI improved off the strict list even as the 30-day print deepened further — worth tracking which signal resolves first |
| Whether MRVL/LRCX/AMD/ASML's recovery holds | All climbed well clear of their prior discounts this cycle |
| INTU's broken-thesis flag | Confirm whether this gets lifted on the next fundamentals refresh, or whether the five-cycle bounce stays purely technical |
| Whether the software/semis rotation resumes or stays faded | Both sides of the prior two-cycle split cooled this cycle — worth confirming this reads as settling, not reversing |
| ORCL's next print | Now a three-cycle confirming recovery — worth tracking whether it eventually clears the strict list's historical range |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — bargain-bin.
Related
8 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.