Bargain Bin

Scan

Bargain Bin

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 49 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-28-bargain-bin.md

2026-07-31 Bargain-Bin Scan — QCOM Becomes The Lone Strict Hit As TSLA's Discount Eases Off, The Software/Semis Rotation Fades, INTU Bounces A Fifth Straight Cycle

QCOM is now the only name clearing the strict screen — RSI fell to 29.3 (was 36.5) as its 30-day decline deepened to -18.86% — while TSLA's RSI climbed to 31.9 (was 27.4), moving it off the strict list for the first time in this tracked window even as its 30-day discount kept widening to -26.83%. The software/semis same-session rotation flagged over the prior two cycles largely faded: WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, and CRM all cooled from their extended RSI highs, while MRVL, LRCX, AMD, and ASML — the names that sold off hard in that rotation — broadly recovered, leaving QCOM alone as the one name from that complex still deteriorating. INTU's broken-thesis flag has now survived a fifth consecutive cycle of price improvement (30D +18.87%, up from +18.01%) — still a hard avoid regardless of the chart.

Data as-of the 2026-07-31 close. Source: summaries/bargain-bin.json, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vs SMA20 < 0, then widened to the next-closest cluster — ranked by thesis quality × discount depth. COST's data refreshed to the current close this cycle (no staleness carryover). Prior scan: 2026-07-28-bargain-bin (2026-07-28 close).


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 QCOM became the lone strict hit as TSLA's RSI moved above 30; the software/semis rotation from the prior two cycles largely faded
Strict hit QCOM (RSI 29.3, `collapse`, -43.2% from 52wk high, unrated) — the only name below RSI 30 this cycle
Dropped off the strict list TSLA (RSI 31.9, was 27.4) — RSI improved even as the 30-day discount deepened further to -26.83%
Closest misses TSLA (31.9), CAT (36.2) — both below their 20-day average
Broken thesis — avoid regardless of price INTU (RSI 59.2, thesis flag explicitly `broken`, -60.2% from high, 30D +18.87% — a fifth straight cycle of gains)
Rotation faded WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM all cooled from last cycle's extended RSI highs; MRVL, LRCX, AMD, ASML all recovered from that same cycle's selloff — QCOM alone kept deteriorating
Key insight QCOM standing alone on the strict screen while the rest of the software/semis complex broadly normalized is this cycle's clearest signal — a single-name deterioration inside an otherwise stabilizing group, not evidence of a wider rotation

What's Going On

The strict bargain-bin filter — RSI below 30 and price below its 20-day average — returns only one name this cycle. QCOM ($147.61, RSI 29.3, vs-20-day -14.8%, 30D -18.86%, -43.2% off its 52-week high) deepened from RSI 36.5 two cycles ago, the steepest deterioration of any name tracked in this screen — it is now the sole name still falling from what was a five-name semis-adjacent selloff two cycles back. TSLA ($311.21, RSI 31.9, vs-20-day -14.5%, 30D -26.83%, -37.6% off its 52-week high) dropped off the strict list for the first time in this tracked window — its RSI improved to just above the strict cutoff even as its 30-day discount kept widening, a genuinely mixed signal: getting technically less oversold while getting cheaper on a rolling basis. It carries a thesis flag of intact but remains death-crossed and in collapse regime.

Only two names sit in the closest-miss tier this cycle — a much thinner cluster than prior cycles. TSLA (above) and CAT ($814.81, RSI 36.2, vs-20-day -8.5%, 30D -17.66%) round out the group; MRVL and LRCX, which sat in this tier last cycle, both climbed well clear of it as the semis complex broadly recovered (see below).

INTU carries the same explicit thesis: broken flag from the last four scans (RSI 59.2, -60.2% off its 52-week high, vs-20-day +8.3% — well above its 20-day average) after another price gain (30D now +18.87%, up from +18.01% last cycle). This is the fifth consecutive cycle of price improvement on a name whose thesis flag has not moved. Per desk doctrine, no bounce clears a broken-thesis flag — this stays an avoid regardless of the chart.

The software/semis same-session split flagged over the prior two cycles largely faded this cycle. The software names that had rallied hard for two straight sessions all cooled from their extended RSI readings: WDAY ($160.34, RSI 61.9, was 65.5; 30D +23.08%, was +29.22%), SAP ($183.62, RSI 64.7, was 64.8; 30D +15.38%, was +15.67%), ADBE ($250.41, RSI 59.8, was 63.5; 30D +18.69%, was +20.71%), NOW ($111.23, RSI 56.6, was 58.0; 30D +5.13%, was +10.65%), and CRM ($184.02, RSI 59.7, was 60.8; 30D +12.74%, was +14.92%) — all still positive on the month but meaningfully cooled from their extended highs. The semis-adjacent names that sold off hard the same session mostly recovered: MRVL ($187.56, RSI 41.6, was 34.3; 30D -31.04%, was -37.17%), LRCX ($293.02, RSI 43.7, was 34.2; 30D -25.11%, was -34.39%), AMD ($476.15, RSI 45.3, was 39.4; 30D -11.97%, was -15.73%), and ASML ($1,629.00, RSI 42.8, was 37.1; 30D -11.5%, was -15.94%) all improved. QCOM alone kept deteriorating — this cycle's clear exception to what otherwise looks like a fading rotation rather than a durable divergence.

ORCL extended its recovery for a third straight cycle. RSI improved further to 44.1 (was 33.2 two cycles ago), 30D improved to -8.55% (was -18.53%), price up to $129.87 (was $119.96) — still -62.4% off its 52-week high and in collapse regime, but this is now a genuinely multi-cycle confirming trend rather than a single bounce.

The prior cycle's "strength pocket" names (DE, HON, DPZ) all cooled meaningfully this cycle, the mirror image of the software rally's own cooldown: DE (RSI 48.6, was 66.3; 30D -5.5%, was +2.37% — price fell from $639.84 to $599.47), HON (RSI 59.2, was 65.7; 30D +9.61%, was +8.45%), and DPZ (RSI 62.4, was 68.7; 30D +14.22%, was +19.19%) — all pulled back from extended readings.


What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-28 → 2026-07-31)

Change Read
QCOM deepened into the strict list — RSI 36.5→29.3, 30D -13.69%→-18.86% The steepest deterioration in this screen; now the sole name still falling from the earlier semis-adjacent selloff
TSLA dropped off the strict list — RSI 27.4→31.9, 30D -25.35%→-26.83% RSI improved even as the discount deepened further — a genuinely mixed signal
MRVL/LRCX both climbed out of the closest-miss tier — MRVL RSI 34.3→41.6, LRCX 34.2→43.7 The semis-complex selloff flagged two cycles ago broadly recovered
The software rally cooled from its extended RSI highs — WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM all eased from two straight sessions of gains The same-session rotation faded rather than confirming into a third cycle
INTU's broken-thesis flag persists through a fifth bounce — 30D +18.01%→+18.87% Avoid stands regardless of the improving chart
ORCL extended its recovery for a third straight cycle — RSI 33.2→44.1, 30D -18.53%→-8.55% Now a genuinely multi-cycle confirming trend, not a single bounce
The "strength pocket" (DE/HON/DPZ) all cooled — DE RSI 66.3→48.6 Mirror image of the software rally's own cooldown
COST's row refreshed — no longer stale Data quality issue from the prior cycle resolved

How To Read The Board

This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime labels (collapse/downtrend/pullback/basing) describe the chart, not a recommendation — QCOM's fresh entry into the strict list this cycle is a deterioration worth tracking, not automatically a discount worth buying. thesis: broken is a hard override: no price level makes a broken-thesis name attractive, and INTU should be avoided regardless of discount, five bounces in. This cycle's real lesson is that the software/semis rotation flagged over the prior two cycles largely faded — most of the semis-adjacent names recovered while the software names cooled from their extremes, leaving QCOM as a genuine single-name story rather than evidence the rotation is still running.


Price Table

Strict Hit — Deep Discount, Unresolved

Ticker Price RSI 1D 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
QCOM $147.61 29.3 -2.6% -11.6% -18.9% -43.2% collapse unrated The only strict hit this cycle; deepened from RSI 36.5 two cycles ago

Closest Misses — Below 20-Day Average, RSI 30-38

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
TSLA $311.21 31.9 -0.6% -26.8% -37.6% collapse intact Dropped off the strict list; RSI improved even as the discount deepened
CAT $814.81 36.2 -8.3% -17.7% -24.1% pullback unrated Quality industrial name, real discount

Approaching Oversold — Ranked By Quality × Discount

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
META $556.71 37.9 -6.5% -9.2% -30.1% downtrend unrated Fresh entrant to this tier — a mega-cap name at a real discount
KLAC $182.82 38.3 -13.2% -31.3% -40.5% pullback unrated Deepest 30D discount in this tier
MRVL $187.56 41.6 -3.4% -31.0% -43.1% pullback unrated Recovering, still below its 20-day average
ASML $1,629.00 42.8 -7.2% -11.5% -18.6% pullback unrated Recovering from the semis-complex selloff
LRCX $293.02 43.7 -4.0% -25.1% -33.2% pullback unrated Recovering, still below its 20-day average
AMD $476.15 45.3 -8.8% -12.0% -18.6% pullback unrated Recovered meaningfully from -15.73% last cycle

Recovered / Extended (for reference — opposite the bin's usual theme)

Ticker Price RSI 1D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Note
ORCL $129.87 44.1 +1.8% -8.55% -62.4% collapse Extended its recovery for a third straight cycle
WDAY $160.34 61.9 +1.4% +23.08% -35.8% downtrend Cooled from last cycle's extended high
SAP $183.62 64.7 +1.5% +15.38% -38.7% downtrend Roughly steady
ADBE $250.41 59.8 +1.0% +18.69% -32.5% downtrend Cooled slightly
NOW $111.23 56.6 +1.1% +5.13% -42.9% downtrend Cooled meaningfully from +10.65%
CRM $184.02 59.7 +1.8% +12.74% -31.6% downtrend Cooled slightly
INTU $316.07 59.2 +0.2% +18.87% -60.2% downtrend broken | Fifth straight bounce; thesis flag unchanged — avoid
DE $599.47 48.6 -1.9% -5.5% -11.1% basing Cooled sharply from a 66.3 strength pocket
HON $243.05 59.2 +0.5% +9.61% -6.6% basing Cooled from a strength pocket
DPZ $347.44 62.4 -1.4% +14.22% -25.9% downtrend Cooled from a strength pocket

(24 remaining tracked names — MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, TMO, COST, WMT, NKE, LULU, MCD, AVGO, ANET, NFLX, DIS, ZS, HD, LOW, CEG, PEP, SPGI, CME, BKNG, UBER, ISRG, PLTR, TTD — sit at RSI 40-70, mixed but not oversold; omitted from a bargain-bin screen by design.)

Tier Analysis

Strict hit, single-name deteriorationQCOM is now the only name clearing the strict screen, deepening from RSI 36.5 two cycles ago while the rest of its former cohort recovered. collapse regime, unrated — the discount is real, no confirmed base.

Dropped off, mixed signalTSLA's RSI improved above the strict cutoff even as its 30-day discount widened further — worth reading as two separate signals, not a clean resolution either way.

Broken thesis — hard avoidINTU. The explicit thesis: broken tag has now survived a fifth consecutive scan of price improvement; the bounce does not clear it.

Recovering from the prior rotationMRVL, LRCX, AMD, ASML all climbed well clear of their prior-cycle discount lows; KLAC remains the deepest of this group.

Fresh discount entrantMETA, a mega-cap name newly appearing in this screen at RSI 37.9 with a real 30-day decline.

Rotation faded, not confirmed as a trendWDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM all cooled from two straight sessions of extension; DE, HON, DPZ (the prior cycle's strength pocket) cooled the same direction. Read this as the earlier same-session split settling down, not evidence of a durable divergence continuing.


Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI vs 52wk High Setup
QCOM $147.61 Verify a base, not just the RSI level 29.3 -43.2% Deepest deterioration in this screen; no confirmed floor
TSLA $311.21 Verify a base — discount still widening 31.9 -37.6% RSI improved off the list even as the 30-day discount deepened further
CAT $814.81 Watch for stabilization 36.2 -24.1% Quality industrial name at a real discount, unresolved
INTU $316.07 Avoid 59.2 -60.2% Broken-thesis flag overrides any price-based entry logic, fifth bounce in

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH (contrarian probe only) QCOM Only strict hit, discount deepening, no confirmed base
🔍 WATCH (mixed signal) TSLA RSI improved off the strict list, discount still widening
🔍 WATCH (discounted, unresolved) CAT, META, KLAC, MRVL, ASML, LRCX, AMD Real discounts without a confirmed stabilization signal
❌ AVOID — BROKEN THESIS INTU Explicit broken-thesis flag; do not buy the drawdown regardless of price
⚠️ COOLED FROM EXTENDED — DON'T CHASE WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM, DE, HON, DPZ Pulled back from last cycle's extended readings

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
QCOM's next print Deepest deterioration in this screen this cycle — confirm whether it stabilizes or continues falling
TSLA's discount vs RSI divergence RSI improved off the strict list even as the 30-day print deepened further — worth tracking which signal resolves first
Whether MRVL/LRCX/AMD/ASML's recovery holds All climbed well clear of their prior discounts this cycle
INTU's broken-thesis flag Confirm whether this gets lifted on the next fundamentals refresh, or whether the five-cycle bounce stays purely technical
Whether the software/semis rotation resumes or stays faded Both sides of the prior two-cycle split cooled this cycle — worth confirming this reads as settling, not reversing
ORCL's next print Now a three-cycle confirming recovery — worth tracking whether it eventually clears the strict list's historical range

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — bargain-bin.
8 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.