Bargain Bin

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Bargain Bin

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 47 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-25-bargain-bin.md

2026-07-28 Bargain-Bin Scan — ORCL Bounces Off The Strict List, TSLA Now Stands Alone As The Only Hit, The Software/Semis Rotation Runs A Second Session

Only one name clears the strict screen this cycle — TSLA (RSI 27.4) — after ORCL's RSI recovered back above 30 (33.2, was 27.5) on a genuine price bounce ($114.99 to $119.96). TSLA's discount deepened further (30D now -25.35%, was -16.64%) even as its price fell only modestly — a name getting cheaper on a worsening trend, not a name basing. The same-session split flagged last cycle ran for a second straight session: WDAY (+8.24%), SAP (+4.77%), ADBE (+4.81%), CRM (+4.55%), NOW (+4.79%) all rallied again, while AMD (-8.15%), MRVL (-7.77%), LRCX (-7.54%), KLAC (-6.18%) all sold off hard the same day. INTU's broken-thesis flag persists through a fourth consecutive bounce (30D now +18.01%) — still an avoid regardless of the chart.

Data as-of the 2026-07-28 close. Source: summaries/bargain-bin.json, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vs SMA20 < 0, then widened to the next-closest cluster — ranked by thesis quality × discount depth. Note: COST's row is stamped 2026-07-24 (Friday) in this file — its figures below are one trading cycle stale relative to everything else in this table; treat with that caveat. Prior scan: 2026-07-25-bargain-bin (2026-07-24 close).


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 The strict list narrowed to one name (TSLA) as ORCL's RSI recovered; the software/semis same-session rotation ran a second straight session
Strict hit TSLA (27.4, `collapse`, -38.4% from 52wk high, thesis intact) — the only name below RSI 30 this cycle
Dropped off the strict list ORCL (RSI 33.2, was 27.5) — a genuine price bounce, not just an RSI wobble; price rose from $114.99 to $119.96
Closest misses MRVL (34.3), LRCX (34.2), ORCL (33.2) — all below their 20-day average, all in the semis-adjacent complex
Broken thesis — avoid regardless of price INTU (RSI 62.2, thesis flag explicitly `broken`, -61.5% from high, bounced +2.99% this session — a fourth straight cycle of gains)
Same-day split, second straight session WDAY +8.2%, SAP +4.8%, ADBE +4.8%, NOW +4.8%, CRM +4.6% up hard vs. AMD -8.2%, MRVL -7.8%, LRCX -7.5%, KLAC -6.2% down hard, same session
Key insight TSLA standing alone on the strict screen while ORCL bounces off it is this cycle's clearest discount signal; the software-up/semis-down rotation running a second consecutive session is starting to look like a real divergence, not a one-day event

What's Going On

The strict bargain-bin filter — RSI below 30 and price below its 20-day average — returns only one name this cycle. TSLA ($307.44, RSI 27.4, vs-20-day -19.1%, 30D -25.35%, -38.4% off its 52-week high) deepened further from last cycle's 28.1 — 7D held roughly steady at -18.87%, meaning the deterioration has been more of a grind than a single new shock this time. It carries a thesis flag of intact, but is also death-crossed and in collapse regime — the discount keeps widening while the technical structure keeps deteriorating alongside it. ORCL dropped off the strict list entirely — RSI recovered to 33.2 (was 27.5) on a real price gain ($114.99 to $119.96), with its 30-day print actually improving to -18.53% (was -26.75%), though it remains -65.3% off its 52-week high and in collapse regime. This is the first improvement in ORCL across two straight scans of deepening — worth a second confirming cycle before calling it a genuine turn.

Three names sit in the closest-miss tier this cycle, and notably all three are semis-adjacent. MRVL ($174.47, RSI 34.3, vs-20-day -20.9%, 30D -37.17%) deepened sharply from last cycle's 39.0 — the steepest discount move of the three. LRCX ($269.61, RSI 34.2, vs-20-day -19.1%, 30D -34.39%) is new to this tier this cycle. ORCL ($119.96, RSI 33.2, vs-20-day -8.7%, 30D -18.53%) rounds out the group just above the strict cutoff. None carry an insider-buying or golden-signal confirmation — these are discounts, not confirmed bases.

INTU carries the same explicit thesis: broken flag from the last three scans (RSI 62.2, -61.5% off its 52-week high, vs-20-day +10.4% — well above its 20-day average now) after another same-session bounce of +2.99% (30D now +18.01%, up from +13.5% last cycle). This is the fourth consecutive cycle of price improvement on a name whose thesis flag has not moved. Per desk doctrine, no bounce clears a broken-thesis flag — this stays an avoid regardless of the chart.

The scan's most visible pattern — the same-session software/semis split — ran for a second straight session. Enterprise-software names jumped again: WDAY ($159.69, RSI 65.5, 1D +8.24%, 30D +29.22%), SAP ($179.17, RSI 64.8, 1D +4.77%, 30D +16.09%), ADBE ($249.18, RSI 63.5, 1D +4.81%, 30D +20.71%), NOW ($110.62, RSI 58.0, 1D +4.79%, 30D +10.65%), and CRM ($181.50, RSI 60.8, 1D +4.55%, 30D +14.92%). The same session, semis/hardware names sold off again: AMD ($454.62, RSI 39.4, 1D -8.15%, 30D -15.73%), MRVL (1D -7.77%, 30D -37.17%), LRCX (1D -7.54%, 30D -34.39%), KLAC ($190.80, RSI 37.7, 1D -6.18%, 30D -31.46%), ASML ($1,582.95, RSI 37.1, 1D -4.37%, 30D -15.94%), and QCOM ($162.88, RSI 36.5, 1D -4.21%, 30D -13.69%). This running for a second straight session — after last cycle's SAP/NOW/ADBE/WDAY/CRM rally paired with MRVL/LRCX/ORCL/KLAC/ASML weakness — suggests this is starting to look like a genuine two-week rotation, not a single-day event, though it should still be read as sector rotation rather than a market-wide directional call.


What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-25 → 2026-07-28)

Change Read
ORCL dropped off the strict list — RSI 27.5→33.2, 30D -26.75%→-18.53%, price $114.99→$119.96 First improvement after two straight scans of deepening; needs a second confirming cycle
TSLA is now the only strict hit — RSI 28.1→27.4, 30D -16.64%→-25.35% The discount deepened further even though the price move itself was modest
MRVL/LRCX both fell into the closest-miss tier — MRVL RSI 39.0→34.3, LRCX RSI 41.2→34.2 The semis-complex selloff flagged in this cycle's ETF-universe and insider-scan continues to widen discounts here
The software/semis same-session split ran a second straight session — WDAY/SAP/ADBE/NOW/CRM up 4-8%, AMD/MRVL/LRCX/KLAC down 6-8% Two consecutive sessions of the same pattern starts to look like a real rotation, not a one-off
INTU's broken-thesis flag persists through a fourth bounce — 30D +13.5%→+18.01%, 1D +2.99% this session Avoid stands regardless of the improving chart
COST's row went stale — still stamped 2026-07-24 in this file Caveat any read on COST; every other name in this table reflects the 2026-07-28 close

How To Read The Board

This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime labels (collapse/downtrend/pullback/basing) describe the chart, not a recommendation — a name in collapse with RSI still falling (TSLA this cycle) is not the same setup as one where RSI and price have both stabilized (ORCL, tentatively, this cycle). thesis: broken is a hard override: no price level makes a broken-thesis name attractive, and INTU should be avoided regardless of discount, four bounces in. This cycle's real lesson is that the software/semis split first flagged last scan ran a second straight session — worth watching whether it becomes a durable divergence or simply fades, but two consecutive sessions of the same pattern is a stronger signal than one.


Price Table

Strict Hit — Deep Discount, Unresolved

Ticker Price RSI 1D 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
TSLA $307.44 27.4 -0.6% -18.9% -25.4% -38.4% collapse intact The only strict hit this cycle; discount deepened further

Closest Misses — Below 20-Day Average, RSI 30-35

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
MRVL $174.47 34.3 -16.1% -37.2% -47.1% pullback unrated Sharp deterioration from RSI 39.0 last cycle
LRCX $269.61 34.2 -16.3% -34.4% -38.5% pullback unrated New to this tier this cycle
ORCL $119.96 33.2 -5.6% -18.5% -65.3% collapse intact Dropped off the strict list on a real price bounce

Approaching Oversold — Ranked By Quality × Discount

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
CAT $840.85 36.2 -5.5% -18.47% -21.7% pullback unrated Quality industrial name, real discount
QCOM $162.88 36.5 -6.1% -13.7% -37.3% downtrend unrated Caught in same-session semis selloff
ASML $1,582.95 37.1 -12.1% -15.9% -20.9% pullback unrated Same-session semis weakness
KLAC $190.80 37.7 -12.3% -31.5% -37.9% pullback unrated Same-session semis weakness
AMZN $230.86 36.3 -6.7% -3.9% -17.1% pullback intact Quality anchor, shallowest discount in this tier
AMD $454.62 39.4 -16.5% -15.7% -22.3% pullback unrated Fresh -8.15% single-day drop this session

Recovered / Extended (for reference — opposite the bin's usual theme, second session running)

Ticker Price RSI 1D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Note
WDAY $159.69 65.5 +8.24% +29.22% -36.1% downtrend Biggest single-day mover; software rally extending a second session
SAP $179.17 64.8 +4.77% +15.67% -40.2% downtrend Same pattern
ADBE $249.18 63.5 +4.81% +20.71% -33.8% downtrend Same pattern
NOW $110.62 58.0 +4.79% +10.65% -45.0% downtrend Same pattern
CRM $181.50 60.8 +4.55% +14.92% -33.8% downtrend Same pattern
INTU $312.99 62.2 +2.99% +18.01% -61.5% downtrend broken | Fourth straight bounce; thesis flag unchanged — avoid
DE $639.84 66.3 +2.37% +2.37% -5.1% basing Strength pocket, unremarkable
HON $247.05 65.7 +0.53% +8.45% -5.1% basing Strength pocket, unremarkable
DPZ $350.47 68.7 +2.02% +19.19% -26.5% downtrend Strength pocket, unremarkable

(28 remaining tracked names — MSFT, NVDA, META, TMO, COST (stale, see caveat above), WMT, NKE, LULU, MCD, AVGO, ANET, NFLX, DIS, ZS, HD, LOW, CEG, PEP, SPGI, CME, DE (above), HON (above), BKNG, UBER, GOOGL, ISRG, PLTR, TTD — sit at RSI 42-70, mixed but not oversold; omitted from a bargain-bin screen by design. GOOGL (42.1) and ISRG (42.4) both moved well clear of last cycle's near-miss reads.)

Tier Analysis

Strict hit, standing aloneTSLA is now the only name clearing the strict screen, discount deepening further while ORCL bounced off the list entirely. collapse regime, thesis-intact, death-crossed — the discount is real, structure is not confirmed.

Closest misses, all semis-adjacentMRVL, LRCX, ORCL all sit just above the strict cutoff and below their 20-day average; MRVL's deterioration from RSI 39.0 to 34.3 is the sharpest move in this tier this cycle.

Broken thesis — hard avoidINTU. The explicit thesis: broken tag has now survived a fourth consecutive scan of price improvement; the bounce does not clear it.

Approaching / discounted, unresolvedCAT, QCOM, ASML, KLAC, AMZN, AMD all carry real discounts without a confirmed base; AMD's fresh -8.15% single-day drop is new pressure this cycle.

Same-session split — running a second sessionWDAY's +8.24% single-day move is the biggest mover in either direction this cycle; SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM, INTU all rallied the same session that AMD, MRVL, LRCX, KLAC, ASML sold off, for the second straight scan. Read this as a persisting rotation, not yet a market-wide signal either direction.


Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI vs 52wk High Setup
TSLA $307.44 Verify a base, not just the RSI level 27.4 -38.4% Discount deepening for a third straight cycle — see this cycle's insider-scan for the same golden-signal read
ORCL $119.96 Watch for a second confirming cycle 33.2 -65.3% First improvement after two straight scans of deepening — do not treat one bounce as a reversal yet
MRVL $174.47 Watch for stabilization 34.3 -47.1% Sharp deterioration this cycle, part of the broader semis selloff
INTU $312.99 Avoid 62.2 -61.5% Broken-thesis flag overrides any price-based entry logic, fourth bounce in

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH (contrarian probe only) TSLA Only strict hit, discount deepening, no confirmed base
🔍 WATCH (recovering, unconfirmed) ORCL Dropped off the strict list on a real bounce — needs a second confirming cycle
🔍 WATCH (discounted, unresolved) MRVL, LRCX, CAT, QCOM, ASML, KLAC, AMZN, AMD Real discounts without a confirmed stabilization signal
❌ AVOID — BROKEN THESIS INTU Explicit broken-thesis flag; do not buy the drawdown regardless of price
⚠️ EXTENDED — SECOND-SESSION RALLY, DON'T CHASE WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM Rallied hard for a second straight session; the mirror image of the bin's usual theme

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
TSLA's next print Discount deepening for a third straight cycle — confirm whether this stabilizes or continues down
ORCL's follow-through First improvement after two scans of deepening — needs a second confirming cycle before calling it a genuine turn
MRVL/LRCX's next print Both fell into the closest-miss tier this cycle as part of the broader semis complex weakness
INTU's broken-thesis flag Confirm whether this gets lifted on the next fundamentals refresh, or whether the four-cycle bounce stays purely technical
Whether the software/semis split becomes a durable rotation Now two straight sessions of the same pattern — worth tracking whether it persists into a third
COST's stale row Confirm it refreshes to the 2026-07-28 close on the next pull

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-28 close (COST stamped 2026-07-24, stale — see caveat above) — bargain-bin.
8 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.