Bargain Bin
Bargain Bin
2026-07-28 Bargain-Bin Scan — ORCL Bounces Off The Strict List, TSLA Now Stands Alone As The Only Hit, The Software/Semis Rotation Runs A Second Session
Only one name clears the strict screen this cycle — TSLA (RSI 27.4) — after ORCL's RSI recovered back above 30 (33.2, was 27.5) on a genuine price bounce ($114.99 to $119.96). TSLA's discount deepened further (30D now -25.35%, was -16.64%) even as its price fell only modestly — a name getting cheaper on a worsening trend, not a name basing. The same-session split flagged last cycle ran for a second straight session: WDAY (+8.24%), SAP (+4.77%), ADBE (+4.81%), CRM (+4.55%), NOW (+4.79%) all rallied again, while AMD (-8.15%), MRVL (-7.77%), LRCX (-7.54%), KLAC (-6.18%) all sold off hard the same day. INTU's broken-thesis flag persists through a fourth consecutive bounce (30D now +18.01%) — still an avoid regardless of the chart.
Data as-of the 2026-07-28 close. Source: summaries/bargain-bin.json, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vs SMA20 < 0, then widened to the next-closest cluster — ranked by thesis quality × discount depth. Note: COST's row is stamped 2026-07-24 (Friday) in this file — its figures below are one trading cycle stale relative to everything else in this table; treat with that caveat. Prior scan: 2026-07-25-bargain-bin (2026-07-24 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 The strict list narrowed to one name (TSLA) as ORCL's RSI recovered; the software/semis same-session rotation ran a second straight session |
| Strict hit | TSLA (27.4, `collapse`, -38.4% from 52wk high, thesis intact) — the only name below RSI 30 this cycle |
| Dropped off the strict list | ORCL (RSI 33.2, was 27.5) — a genuine price bounce, not just an RSI wobble; price rose from $114.99 to $119.96 |
| Closest misses | MRVL (34.3), LRCX (34.2), ORCL (33.2) — all below their 20-day average, all in the semis-adjacent complex |
| Broken thesis — avoid regardless of price | INTU (RSI 62.2, thesis flag explicitly `broken`, -61.5% from high, bounced +2.99% this session — a fourth straight cycle of gains) |
| Same-day split, second straight session | WDAY +8.2%, SAP +4.8%, ADBE +4.8%, NOW +4.8%, CRM +4.6% up hard vs. AMD -8.2%, MRVL -7.8%, LRCX -7.5%, KLAC -6.2% down hard, same session |
| Key insight | TSLA standing alone on the strict screen while ORCL bounces off it is this cycle's clearest discount signal; the software-up/semis-down rotation running a second consecutive session is starting to look like a real divergence, not a one-day event |
What's Going On
The strict bargain-bin filter — RSI below 30 and price below its 20-day average — returns only one name this cycle. TSLA ($307.44, RSI 27.4, vs-20-day -19.1%, 30D -25.35%, -38.4% off its 52-week high) deepened further from last cycle's 28.1 — 7D held roughly steady at -18.87%, meaning the deterioration has been more of a grind than a single new shock this time. It carries a thesis flag of intact, but is also death-crossed and in collapse regime — the discount keeps widening while the technical structure keeps deteriorating alongside it. ORCL dropped off the strict list entirely — RSI recovered to 33.2 (was 27.5) on a real price gain ($114.99 to $119.96), with its 30-day print actually improving to -18.53% (was -26.75%), though it remains -65.3% off its 52-week high and in collapse regime. This is the first improvement in ORCL across two straight scans of deepening — worth a second confirming cycle before calling it a genuine turn.
Three names sit in the closest-miss tier this cycle, and notably all three are semis-adjacent. MRVL ($174.47, RSI 34.3, vs-20-day -20.9%, 30D -37.17%) deepened sharply from last cycle's 39.0 — the steepest discount move of the three. LRCX ($269.61, RSI 34.2, vs-20-day -19.1%, 30D -34.39%) is new to this tier this cycle. ORCL ($119.96, RSI 33.2, vs-20-day -8.7%, 30D -18.53%) rounds out the group just above the strict cutoff. None carry an insider-buying or golden-signal confirmation — these are discounts, not confirmed bases.
INTU carries the same explicit thesis: broken flag from the last three scans (RSI 62.2, -61.5% off its 52-week high, vs-20-day +10.4% — well above its 20-day average now) after another same-session bounce of +2.99% (30D now +18.01%, up from +13.5% last cycle). This is the fourth consecutive cycle of price improvement on a name whose thesis flag has not moved. Per desk doctrine, no bounce clears a broken-thesis flag — this stays an avoid regardless of the chart.
The scan's most visible pattern — the same-session software/semis split — ran for a second straight session. Enterprise-software names jumped again: WDAY ($159.69, RSI 65.5, 1D +8.24%, 30D +29.22%), SAP ($179.17, RSI 64.8, 1D +4.77%, 30D +16.09%), ADBE ($249.18, RSI 63.5, 1D +4.81%, 30D +20.71%), NOW ($110.62, RSI 58.0, 1D +4.79%, 30D +10.65%), and CRM ($181.50, RSI 60.8, 1D +4.55%, 30D +14.92%). The same session, semis/hardware names sold off again: AMD ($454.62, RSI 39.4, 1D -8.15%, 30D -15.73%), MRVL (1D -7.77%, 30D -37.17%), LRCX (1D -7.54%, 30D -34.39%), KLAC ($190.80, RSI 37.7, 1D -6.18%, 30D -31.46%), ASML ($1,582.95, RSI 37.1, 1D -4.37%, 30D -15.94%), and QCOM ($162.88, RSI 36.5, 1D -4.21%, 30D -13.69%). This running for a second straight session — after last cycle's SAP/NOW/ADBE/WDAY/CRM rally paired with MRVL/LRCX/ORCL/KLAC/ASML weakness — suggests this is starting to look like a genuine two-week rotation, not a single-day event, though it should still be read as sector rotation rather than a market-wide directional call.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-25 → 2026-07-28)
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| ORCL dropped off the strict list — RSI 27.5→33.2, 30D -26.75%→-18.53%, price $114.99→$119.96 | First improvement after two straight scans of deepening; needs a second confirming cycle |
| TSLA is now the only strict hit — RSI 28.1→27.4, 30D -16.64%→-25.35% | The discount deepened further even though the price move itself was modest |
| MRVL/LRCX both fell into the closest-miss tier — MRVL RSI 39.0→34.3, LRCX RSI 41.2→34.2 | The semis-complex selloff flagged in this cycle's ETF-universe and insider-scan continues to widen discounts here |
| The software/semis same-session split ran a second straight session — WDAY/SAP/ADBE/NOW/CRM up 4-8%, AMD/MRVL/LRCX/KLAC down 6-8% | Two consecutive sessions of the same pattern starts to look like a real rotation, not a one-off |
| INTU's broken-thesis flag persists through a fourth bounce — 30D +13.5%→+18.01%, 1D +2.99% this session | Avoid stands regardless of the improving chart |
| COST's row went stale — still stamped 2026-07-24 in this file | Caveat any read on COST; every other name in this table reflects the 2026-07-28 close |
How To Read The Board
This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime labels (collapse/downtrend/pullback/basing) describe the chart, not a recommendation — a name in collapse with RSI still falling (TSLA this cycle) is not the same setup as one where RSI and price have both stabilized (ORCL, tentatively, this cycle). thesis: broken is a hard override: no price level makes a broken-thesis name attractive, and INTU should be avoided regardless of discount, four bounces in. This cycle's real lesson is that the software/semis split first flagged last scan ran a second straight session — worth watching whether it becomes a durable divergence or simply fades, but two consecutive sessions of the same pattern is a stronger signal than one.
Price Table
Strict Hit — Deep Discount, Unresolved
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 1D | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Thesis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | $307.44 | 27.4 | -0.6% | -18.9% | -25.4% | -38.4% | collapse | intact | The only strict hit this cycle; discount deepened further |
Closest Misses — Below 20-Day Average, RSI 30-35
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Thesis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL | $174.47 | 34.3 | -16.1% | -37.2% | -47.1% | pullback | unrated | Sharp deterioration from RSI 39.0 last cycle |
| LRCX | $269.61 | 34.2 | -16.3% | -34.4% | -38.5% | pullback | unrated | New to this tier this cycle |
| ORCL | $119.96 | 33.2 | -5.6% | -18.5% | -65.3% | collapse | intact | Dropped off the strict list on a real price bounce |
Approaching Oversold — Ranked By Quality × Discount
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Thesis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | $840.85 | 36.2 | -5.5% | -18.47% | -21.7% | pullback | unrated | Quality industrial name, real discount |
| QCOM | $162.88 | 36.5 | -6.1% | -13.7% | -37.3% | downtrend | unrated | Caught in same-session semis selloff |
| ASML | $1,582.95 | 37.1 | -12.1% | -15.9% | -20.9% | pullback | unrated | Same-session semis weakness |
| KLAC | $190.80 | 37.7 | -12.3% | -31.5% | -37.9% | pullback | unrated | Same-session semis weakness |
| AMZN | $230.86 | 36.3 | -6.7% | -3.9% | -17.1% | pullback | intact | Quality anchor, shallowest discount in this tier |
| AMD | $454.62 | 39.4 | -16.5% | -15.7% | -22.3% | pullback | unrated | Fresh -8.15% single-day drop this session |
Recovered / Extended (for reference — opposite the bin's usual theme, second session running)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 1D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WDAY | $159.69 | 65.5 | +8.24% | +29.22% | -36.1% | downtrend | Biggest single-day mover; software rally extending a second session |
| SAP | $179.17 | 64.8 | +4.77% | +15.67% | -40.2% | downtrend | Same pattern |
| ADBE | $249.18 | 63.5 | +4.81% | +20.71% | -33.8% | downtrend | Same pattern |
| NOW | $110.62 | 58.0 | +4.79% | +10.65% | -45.0% | downtrend | Same pattern |
| CRM | $181.50 | 60.8 | +4.55% | +14.92% | -33.8% | downtrend | Same pattern |
| INTU | $312.99 | 62.2 | +2.99% | +18.01% | -61.5% | downtrend | broken | Fourth straight bounce; thesis flag unchanged — avoid |
| DE | $639.84 | 66.3 | +2.37% | +2.37% | -5.1% | basing | Strength pocket, unremarkable |
| HON | $247.05 | 65.7 | +0.53% | +8.45% | -5.1% | basing | Strength pocket, unremarkable |
| DPZ | $350.47 | 68.7 | +2.02% | +19.19% | -26.5% | downtrend | Strength pocket, unremarkable |
(28 remaining tracked names — MSFT, NVDA, META, TMO, COST (stale, see caveat above), WMT, NKE, LULU, MCD, AVGO, ANET, NFLX, DIS, ZS, HD, LOW, CEG, PEP, SPGI, CME, DE (above), HON (above), BKNG, UBER, GOOGL, ISRG, PLTR, TTD — sit at RSI 42-70, mixed but not oversold; omitted from a bargain-bin screen by design. GOOGL (42.1) and ISRG (42.4) both moved well clear of last cycle's near-miss reads.)
Tier Analysis
Strict hit, standing alone — TSLA is now the only name clearing the strict screen, discount deepening further while ORCL bounced off the list entirely. collapse regime, thesis-intact, death-crossed — the discount is real, structure is not confirmed.
Closest misses, all semis-adjacent — MRVL, LRCX, ORCL all sit just above the strict cutoff and below their 20-day average; MRVL's deterioration from RSI 39.0 to 34.3 is the sharpest move in this tier this cycle.
Broken thesis — hard avoid — INTU. The explicit thesis: broken tag has now survived a fourth consecutive scan of price improvement; the bounce does not clear it.
Approaching / discounted, unresolved — CAT, QCOM, ASML, KLAC, AMZN, AMD all carry real discounts without a confirmed base; AMD's fresh -8.15% single-day drop is new pressure this cycle.
Same-session split — running a second session — WDAY's +8.24% single-day move is the biggest mover in either direction this cycle; SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM, INTU all rallied the same session that AMD, MRVL, LRCX, KLAC, ASML sold off, for the second straight scan. Read this as a persisting rotation, not yet a market-wide signal either direction.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | vs 52wk High | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | $307.44 | Verify a base, not just the RSI level | 27.4 | -38.4% | Discount deepening for a third straight cycle — see this cycle's insider-scan for the same golden-signal read |
| ORCL | $119.96 | Watch for a second confirming cycle | 33.2 | -65.3% | First improvement after two straight scans of deepening — do not treat one bounce as a reversal yet |
| MRVL | $174.47 | Watch for stabilization | 34.3 | -47.1% | Sharp deterioration this cycle, part of the broader semis selloff |
| INTU | $312.99 | Avoid | 62.2 | -61.5% | Broken-thesis flag overrides any price-based entry logic, fourth bounce in |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔍 WATCH (contrarian probe only) | TSLA | Only strict hit, discount deepening, no confirmed base |
| 🔍 WATCH (recovering, unconfirmed) | ORCL | Dropped off the strict list on a real bounce — needs a second confirming cycle |
| 🔍 WATCH (discounted, unresolved) | MRVL, LRCX, CAT, QCOM, ASML, KLAC, AMZN, AMD | Real discounts without a confirmed stabilization signal |
| ❌ AVOID — BROKEN THESIS | INTU | Explicit broken-thesis flag; do not buy the drawdown regardless of price |
| ⚠️ EXTENDED — SECOND-SESSION RALLY, DON'T CHASE | WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM | Rallied hard for a second straight session; the mirror image of the bin's usual theme |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| TSLA's next print | Discount deepening for a third straight cycle — confirm whether this stabilizes or continues down |
| ORCL's follow-through | First improvement after two scans of deepening — needs a second confirming cycle before calling it a genuine turn |
| MRVL/LRCX's next print | Both fell into the closest-miss tier this cycle as part of the broader semis complex weakness |
| INTU's broken-thesis flag | Confirm whether this gets lifted on the next fundamentals refresh, or whether the four-cycle bounce stays purely technical |
| Whether the software/semis split becomes a durable rotation | Now two straight sessions of the same pattern — worth tracking whether it persists into a third |
| COST's stale row | Confirm it refreshes to the 2026-07-28 close on the next pull |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-28 close (COST stamped 2026-07-24, stale — see caveat above) — bargain-bin.
Related
8 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.