Bargain Bin
Bargain Bin
2026-07-17 Bargain-Bin Scan — ORCL Is The Only Strict Hit, ISRG Just Missed The Cut, PYPL Rips Into Parabolic
Exactly one name in this 69-ticker universe meets the strict screen (RSI < 30 AND price below its 20-day average) this cycle: ORCL, at RSI 29.3. Two names missed by the thinnest possible margin — ISRG (RSI 30.2) and NFLX (RSI 30.5) both sit below their 20-day average but just above the RSI-30 line, worth watching as the next candidates to qualify. The bin's other story is a bifurcated tape: while ORCL/ISRG/NFLX/MRVL sit deep in the discount pile, a cluster of software names — PYPL (RSI 80.3, now parabolic), ADBE, WDAY, PANW, CRWD, OKTA — extended hard in the same window, the mirror image of the broad-market cooldown flagged in this cycle's ETF-universe scan. INTU's explicit broken-thesis flag persists despite a continued price bounce — per desk doctrine, still an avoid regardless of the chart.
Data as-of 2026-07-17 close (LRCX's feed is one session stale at 2026-07-16 — noted below). Source: summaries/bargain-bin.json, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vs SMA20 < 0, then widened to the next-closest cluster since the strict filter returned only one name — ranked by thesis quality × discount depth. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-bargain-bin (2026-07-10 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Strict oversold screen returns one name (ORCL); two others (ISRG, NFLX) missed by less than a full RSI point |
| Strict hit | ORCL (29.3, downtrend, -63.4% from 52wk high, thesis flag intact) |
| Closest misses | ISRG (30.2, collapse, -42.8% from high), NFLX (30.5, collapse, -45.6% from high) — both below their 20-day average |
| Broken thesis — avoid regardless of price | INTU (RSI 52.7, thesis flag explicitly `broken`, -64.2% from high) |
| Ripped into overbought | PYPL (RSI 80.3, regime `parabolic`, 30D +33.05%), ADBE (61.1, 30D +21.57%), CRWD/PANW/OKTA all RSI 63-67 and extending |
| Key insight | The bin stayed thin, but the composition changed — ORCL is the sole strict hit while ISRG cracked into near-oversold territory from a much healthier prior read, and a software cohort ran the opposite direction |
What's Going On
The strict bargain-bin filter — RSI below 30 and price below its 20-day average — returns exactly one name this cycle: ORCL ($126.41, RSI 29.3, vs-20-day -13.0%, 30D -31.17%, -63.4% from its 52-week high). Last scan flagged ORCL as "reclassified from basing to still collapsing" after its 30-day change deepened while RSI barely moved; this cycle confirms that read — RSI ticked down further (31.3→29.3) and the 30-day decline deepened again (-23.3%→-31.17%). This is now a genuine, sustained breakdown rather than a plateau.
Two names missed the strict cut by the thinnest possible margin. ISRG ($345.42, RSI 30.2, vs-20-day -14.4%, 30D -15.08%) has fallen hard from a much healthier RSI 45.0 last scan — a real, fresh deterioration in a name whose thesis is still tagged intact, not a slow bleed. NFLX ($68.95, RSI 30.5, vs-20-day -6.7%, 30D -10.89%) continues a multi-scan slide with no stabilization signal — its RSI has now fallen in three consecutive scans (43.7→37.5→30.5). Neither technically clears the RSI-30 threshold, but both are close enough to treat as the next candidates if the trend continues.
INTU carries the same explicit thesis: broken flag from last scan (RSI 52.7, -64.2% from its 52-week high, vs-20-day +7.1%) despite another price bounce this cycle (30D +9.51%, was -0.3%). Per desk doctrine, no bounce in price clears a broken-thesis flag — this stays an avoid regardless of how the chart looks.
The more interesting divergence this cycle is a bifurcated tape. While ORCL/ISRG/NFLX/MRVL sit in real discount territory, several software and payments names ran hard in the opposite direction during the same window that the broader market cooled (see this cycle's ETF-universe scan for the broad-market context): PYPL rocketed from RSI 61.3 to 80.3, now flagged parabolic regime with a 30-day gain of +33.05%; ADBE (RSI 61.1, 30D +21.57%), WDAY (RSI 60.4, 30D +23.82%), PANW (RSI 67.4, 30D +24.64%), CRWD (RSI 62.9, 30D +18.61%), and OKTA (RSI 64.8, 30D +26.77%) all extended well above their 20-day averages. None of these are new bargain-bin candidates — they're the opposite signal, a reminder that "cheap" and "the broad market" are not moving together this cycle.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-11 → 2026-07-17)
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| ORCL deepened further — RSI 31.3→29.3, 30D -23.3%→-31.17% | Now the scan's sole strict hit, confirming last cycle's "still collapsing, not basing" call for a second straight scan |
| ISRG cracked from RSI 45.0 to 30.2 — 7D/30D both -15.08% | A fresh, sharp deterioration in a quality name — the closest miss on the strict filter this cycle |
| NFLX continued deepening for a third scan — RSI 43.7→37.5→30.5 | Still no stabilization signal across the whole window tracked in this corpus |
| PYPL ripped from RSI 61.3 to 80.3, regime flipped to `parabolic` | The scan's biggest reversal of direction — a name that had been "recovering out of the bin" is now itself extended |
| PANW/CRWD/OKTA all reaccelerated (RSI 58-64 → 63-67) | Consistent with this cycle's ETF-universe scan flagging the same security-software cluster bucking the broad-market cooldown |
| INTU's broken-thesis flag persists despite another price bounce (30D -0.3%→+9.51%) | Avoid stands — the flag has now survived two consecutive scans of price improvement |
| MRVL deepened sharply — RSI 45.2→35.7, 30D -16.0%→-39.23% | The "cooling off a monster run" name from last scan is now genuinely discounted, not just resting |
How To Read The Board
This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime labels (collapse/downtrend/pullback/basing) describe the chart, not a recommendation — a name in collapse with RSI still falling (ORCL, NFLX this cycle) is not the same setup as one where RSI and price have both stabilized. thesis: broken is a hard override: no price level makes a broken-thesis name attractive, and INTU should be avoided regardless of discount. This cycle's real lesson is that the RSI-30 line is a threshold, not a cliff — ISRG and NFLX sitting a fraction of a point above it carry the same qualitative read as ORCL sitting a fraction below it; treat all three as one cluster rather than drawing a hard line between "in the bin" and "not."
Price Table
Strict Hit + Closest Misses — Deep Discount, Unresolved
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Thesis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | $126.41 | 29.3 | -10.1% | -31.17% | -63.4% | collapse | intact | Sole strict hit; deepening for a second straight scan |
| ISRG | $345.42 | 30.2 | -15.1% | -15.08% | -42.8% | collapse | intact | Missed by 0.2 RSI points; fresh, sharp deterioration |
| NFLX | $68.95 | 30.5 | -6.0% | -10.89% | -45.6% | collapse | unrated | Missed by 0.5 RSI points; third straight scan deepening |
| SAP | $159.04 | 47.5 | +0.8% | +2.46% | -48.7% | collapse | unrated | Flat, roughly unchanged |
| INTU | $291.09 | 52.7 | +5.9% | +9.51% | -64.2% | collapse | broken | Explicit broken-thesis flag persists — avoid regardless of the bounce |
Approaching Oversold — Ranked By Quality × Discount
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Thesis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL | $188.68 | 35.7 | -20.0% | -39.23% | -42.8% | pullback | unrated | Steepest discount in this tier; still +45.4% vs SMA200 — cooling off a monster run |
| QCOM | $171.78 | 38.5 | -9.2% | -24.03% | -33.9% | pullback | unrated | Real discount, unremarkable otherwise |
| AVGO | $370.83 | 43.8 | -7.3% | -9.71% | -25.1% | pullback | intact | Quality franchise, modest discount |
| LOW | $208.73 | 41.4 | -1.4% | -6.06% | -28.8% | downtrend | intact | thesis flag intact, real discount |
| GOOGL | $346.77 | 42.5 | -2.9% | -5.78% | -15.1% | basing | intact | Mega-cap quality, shallower discount |
| TSLA | $380.84 | 42.5 | -6.6% | -4.91% | -23.7% | pullback | intact | Thesis intact, modest discount |
| CAT | $880.28 | 40.2 | -7.6% | -10.71% | -18.0% | pullback | unrated | Real discount, unremarkable |
| KLAC / LRCX | $212.75 / $320.96 | 43.9 / 43.5 | -8.1% / -6.8% | -18.0% / -14.2% | -30.8% / -26.8% | pullback | unrated | Semis-equipment pair, both discounted; LRCX feed stale at 07-16 |
| MCD | $267.71 | 42.7 | -2.5% | -3.91% | -21.7% | pullback | unrated | Shallow discount |
Recovered / Ripped Into Overbought (for reference — opposite the bin's usual theme)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PYPL | $56.56 | 80.3 | +22.1% | +33.05% | -28.9% | parabolic | Biggest reversal this cycle — was RSI 61.3 last scan |
| ADBE | $237.25 | 61.1 | +6.1% | +21.57% | -36.9% | downtrend | Extending further, still death-crossed |
| WDAY | $144.78 | 60.4 | +4.2% | +23.82% | -42.1% | downtrend | Continues extending |
| PANW | $358.68 | 67.4 | +10.1% | +24.64% | -2.7% | uptrend | Reaccelerated — see this cycle's ETF-universe scan |
| CRWD | $203.08 | 62.9 | +8.5% | +18.61% | -6.6% | uptrend | Same reacceleration pattern |
| OKTA | $149.35 | 64.8 | +7.7% | +26.77% | -4.9% | uptrend | Same reacceleration pattern |
| ZS | $149.94 | 57.1 | +7.7% | +20.1% | -55.5% | downtrend | Still death-crossed despite the run |
(47 remaining tracked names — AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, META, CRM, NOW, SNOW, DDOG, NET, TMO, LLY, ABBV, UNH, JNJ, COST, WMT, NKE, LULU, SBUX, DPZ, AMD, ANET, ASML, V, MA, XYZ, DIS, HD, CEG, GE, PEP, KO, JPM, GS, BRK-B, SPGI, CME, DE, HON, UPS, RTX, BKNG, ABNB, UBER, PLTR, TTD — sit at RSI 42-66, mixed but not oversold; omitted from a bargain-bin screen by design.)
Tier Analysis
Strict hit, deepening — ORCL. Second straight scan of the same "still collapsing, not basing" pattern; RSI and 30-day change both worsened again.
Closest misses, worth tracking — ISRG and NFLX both sit a fraction of an RSI point above the strict cutoff and below their 20-day average. ISRG is the more notable of the two given how fast it fell (RSI 45.0→30.2 in one cycle) in a name with an intact thesis flag; NFLX is a slower, three-scan grind with no stabilization.
Broken thesis — hard avoid — INTU. The explicit thesis: broken tag has now survived two consecutive scans of price improvement; no bounce changes that.
Approaching / discounted, unresolved — MRVL, QCOM, AVGO, LOW, GOOGL, TSLA, CAT, KLAC, LRCX, MCD all carry real discounts (6-39% on 30D) without a confirmed base. MRVL's -39.23% 30-day move is the steepest in this tier.
Ripped into overbought — the bin's mirror image — PYPL's flip from RSI 61.3 to 80.3 (now parabolic) is the cycle's most dramatic single move in either direction; ADBE, WDAY, PANW, CRWD, OKTA, ZS all extended alongside it. This is the clearest read on this cycle's bifurcated tape — cheap names got cheaper while a software cohort got more expensive, in the same window the broad market cooled.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | vs 52wk High | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | $126.41 | Wait for a 30D trend reversal, not just RSI | 29.3 | -63.4% | Deepening for a second straight scan — do not treat the RSI level alone as a bounce signal |
| ISRG | $345.42 | Watch for stabilization | 30.2 | -42.8% | Fresh, sharp crack in a quality name with an intact thesis flag — confirm a base before any read |
| MRVL | $188.68 | Watch for the 30D trend to turn | 35.7 | -42.8% | Steepest discount in the widened tier; still cooling off a monster prior run |
| INTU | $291.09 | Avoid | 52.7 | -64.2% | Broken thesis flag overrides any price-based entry logic |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔍 WATCH (contrarian probe only) | ORCL, ISRG, NFLX | The strict hit and its two closest misses — all deepening or freshly cracked, no confirmed base |
| 🔍 WATCH (discounted, unresolved) | MRVL, QCOM, AVGO, LOW, GOOGL, TSLA, CAT, KLAC, LRCX | Real 30-day discounts without a confirmed stabilization signal |
| ❌ AVOID — BROKEN THESIS | INTU | Explicit broken-thesis flag; do not buy the drawdown regardless of price |
| ⚠️ EXTENDED — DON'T CHASE | PYPL, ADBE, WDAY, PANW, CRWD, OKTA, ZS | Ran hard in the opposite direction this cycle; the mirror image of the bin's usual theme |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| ORCL's 30D trend | If it keeps deepening past -31%, this stops being a "deepest discount" story and becomes a genuine breakdown worth a name-level look |
| ISRG's next print | Fell the fastest of anything in this scan — confirm whether this stabilizes or continues into the strict bin next cycle |
| NFLX's third straight deterioration | No bounce across three scans — watch for either a basing print or a fresh leg down |
| PYPL's parabolic flag | The scan's biggest reversal — watch whether RSI 80+ resolves via a pullback or keeps extending |
| INTU's broken-thesis flag | Confirm whether this gets lifted on the next fundamentals refresh, or whether the bounce stays purely technical |
| Whether the bifurcated tape persists | Discounted industrials/semis vs. extended software/payments — worth tracking whether the gap widens or the two groups converge |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
Related
8 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.