Bargain Bin

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Bargain Bin

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 48 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-11-bargain-bin.md

2026-07-17 Bargain-Bin Scan — ORCL Is The Only Strict Hit, ISRG Just Missed The Cut, PYPL Rips Into Parabolic

Exactly one name in this 69-ticker universe meets the strict screen (RSI < 30 AND price below its 20-day average) this cycle: ORCL, at RSI 29.3. Two names missed by the thinnest possible margin — ISRG (RSI 30.2) and NFLX (RSI 30.5) both sit below their 20-day average but just above the RSI-30 line, worth watching as the next candidates to qualify. The bin's other story is a bifurcated tape: while ORCL/ISRG/NFLX/MRVL sit deep in the discount pile, a cluster of software names — PYPL (RSI 80.3, now parabolic), ADBE, WDAY, PANW, CRWD, OKTA — extended hard in the same window, the mirror image of the broad-market cooldown flagged in this cycle's ETF-universe scan. INTU's explicit broken-thesis flag persists despite a continued price bounce — per desk doctrine, still an avoid regardless of the chart.

Data as-of 2026-07-17 close (LRCX's feed is one session stale at 2026-07-16 — noted below). Source: summaries/bargain-bin.json, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vs SMA20 < 0, then widened to the next-closest cluster since the strict filter returned only one name — ranked by thesis quality × discount depth. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-bargain-bin (2026-07-10 close).


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Strict oversold screen returns one name (ORCL); two others (ISRG, NFLX) missed by less than a full RSI point
Strict hit ORCL (29.3, downtrend, -63.4% from 52wk high, thesis flag intact)
Closest misses ISRG (30.2, collapse, -42.8% from high), NFLX (30.5, collapse, -45.6% from high) — both below their 20-day average
Broken thesis — avoid regardless of price INTU (RSI 52.7, thesis flag explicitly `broken`, -64.2% from high)
Ripped into overbought PYPL (RSI 80.3, regime `parabolic`, 30D +33.05%), ADBE (61.1, 30D +21.57%), CRWD/PANW/OKTA all RSI 63-67 and extending
Key insight The bin stayed thin, but the composition changed — ORCL is the sole strict hit while ISRG cracked into near-oversold territory from a much healthier prior read, and a software cohort ran the opposite direction

What's Going On

The strict bargain-bin filter — RSI below 30 and price below its 20-day average — returns exactly one name this cycle: ORCL ($126.41, RSI 29.3, vs-20-day -13.0%, 30D -31.17%, -63.4% from its 52-week high). Last scan flagged ORCL as "reclassified from basing to still collapsing" after its 30-day change deepened while RSI barely moved; this cycle confirms that read — RSI ticked down further (31.3→29.3) and the 30-day decline deepened again (-23.3%→-31.17%). This is now a genuine, sustained breakdown rather than a plateau.

Two names missed the strict cut by the thinnest possible margin. ISRG ($345.42, RSI 30.2, vs-20-day -14.4%, 30D -15.08%) has fallen hard from a much healthier RSI 45.0 last scan — a real, fresh deterioration in a name whose thesis is still tagged intact, not a slow bleed. NFLX ($68.95, RSI 30.5, vs-20-day -6.7%, 30D -10.89%) continues a multi-scan slide with no stabilization signal — its RSI has now fallen in three consecutive scans (43.7→37.5→30.5). Neither technically clears the RSI-30 threshold, but both are close enough to treat as the next candidates if the trend continues.

INTU carries the same explicit thesis: broken flag from last scan (RSI 52.7, -64.2% from its 52-week high, vs-20-day +7.1%) despite another price bounce this cycle (30D +9.51%, was -0.3%). Per desk doctrine, no bounce in price clears a broken-thesis flag — this stays an avoid regardless of how the chart looks.

The more interesting divergence this cycle is a bifurcated tape. While ORCL/ISRG/NFLX/MRVL sit in real discount territory, several software and payments names ran hard in the opposite direction during the same window that the broader market cooled (see this cycle's ETF-universe scan for the broad-market context): PYPL rocketed from RSI 61.3 to 80.3, now flagged parabolic regime with a 30-day gain of +33.05%; ADBE (RSI 61.1, 30D +21.57%), WDAY (RSI 60.4, 30D +23.82%), PANW (RSI 67.4, 30D +24.64%), CRWD (RSI 62.9, 30D +18.61%), and OKTA (RSI 64.8, 30D +26.77%) all extended well above their 20-day averages. None of these are new bargain-bin candidates — they're the opposite signal, a reminder that "cheap" and "the broad market" are not moving together this cycle.


What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-11 → 2026-07-17)

Change Read
ORCL deepened further — RSI 31.3→29.3, 30D -23.3%→-31.17% Now the scan's sole strict hit, confirming last cycle's "still collapsing, not basing" call for a second straight scan
ISRG cracked from RSI 45.0 to 30.2 — 7D/30D both -15.08% A fresh, sharp deterioration in a quality name — the closest miss on the strict filter this cycle
NFLX continued deepening for a third scan — RSI 43.7→37.5→30.5 Still no stabilization signal across the whole window tracked in this corpus
PYPL ripped from RSI 61.3 to 80.3, regime flipped to `parabolic` The scan's biggest reversal of direction — a name that had been "recovering out of the bin" is now itself extended
PANW/CRWD/OKTA all reaccelerated (RSI 58-64 → 63-67) Consistent with this cycle's ETF-universe scan flagging the same security-software cluster bucking the broad-market cooldown
INTU's broken-thesis flag persists despite another price bounce (30D -0.3%→+9.51%) Avoid stands — the flag has now survived two consecutive scans of price improvement
MRVL deepened sharply — RSI 45.2→35.7, 30D -16.0%→-39.23% The "cooling off a monster run" name from last scan is now genuinely discounted, not just resting

How To Read The Board

This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime labels (collapse/downtrend/pullback/basing) describe the chart, not a recommendation — a name in collapse with RSI still falling (ORCL, NFLX this cycle) is not the same setup as one where RSI and price have both stabilized. thesis: broken is a hard override: no price level makes a broken-thesis name attractive, and INTU should be avoided regardless of discount. This cycle's real lesson is that the RSI-30 line is a threshold, not a cliff — ISRG and NFLX sitting a fraction of a point above it carry the same qualitative read as ORCL sitting a fraction below it; treat all three as one cluster rather than drawing a hard line between "in the bin" and "not."


Price Table

Strict Hit + Closest Misses — Deep Discount, Unresolved

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
ORCL $126.41 29.3 -10.1% -31.17% -63.4% collapse intact Sole strict hit; deepening for a second straight scan
ISRG $345.42 30.2 -15.1% -15.08% -42.8% collapse intact Missed by 0.2 RSI points; fresh, sharp deterioration
NFLX $68.95 30.5 -6.0% -10.89% -45.6% collapse unrated Missed by 0.5 RSI points; third straight scan deepening
SAP $159.04 47.5 +0.8% +2.46% -48.7% collapse unrated Flat, roughly unchanged
INTU $291.09 52.7 +5.9% +9.51% -64.2% collapse broken Explicit broken-thesis flag persists — avoid regardless of the bounce

Approaching Oversold — Ranked By Quality × Discount

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
MRVL $188.68 35.7 -20.0% -39.23% -42.8% pullback unrated Steepest discount in this tier; still +45.4% vs SMA200 — cooling off a monster run
QCOM $171.78 38.5 -9.2% -24.03% -33.9% pullback unrated Real discount, unremarkable otherwise
AVGO $370.83 43.8 -7.3% -9.71% -25.1% pullback intact Quality franchise, modest discount
LOW $208.73 41.4 -1.4% -6.06% -28.8% downtrend intact thesis flag intact, real discount
GOOGL $346.77 42.5 -2.9% -5.78% -15.1% basing intact Mega-cap quality, shallower discount
TSLA $380.84 42.5 -6.6% -4.91% -23.7% pullback intact Thesis intact, modest discount
CAT $880.28 40.2 -7.6% -10.71% -18.0% pullback unrated Real discount, unremarkable
KLAC / LRCX $212.75 / $320.96 43.9 / 43.5 -8.1% / -6.8% -18.0% / -14.2% -30.8% / -26.8% pullback unrated Semis-equipment pair, both discounted; LRCX feed stale at 07-16
MCD $267.71 42.7 -2.5% -3.91% -21.7% pullback unrated Shallow discount

Recovered / Ripped Into Overbought (for reference — opposite the bin's usual theme)

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Note
PYPL $56.56 80.3 +22.1% +33.05% -28.9% parabolic Biggest reversal this cycle — was RSI 61.3 last scan
ADBE $237.25 61.1 +6.1% +21.57% -36.9% downtrend Extending further, still death-crossed
WDAY $144.78 60.4 +4.2% +23.82% -42.1% downtrend Continues extending
PANW $358.68 67.4 +10.1% +24.64% -2.7% uptrend Reaccelerated — see this cycle's ETF-universe scan
CRWD $203.08 62.9 +8.5% +18.61% -6.6% uptrend Same reacceleration pattern
OKTA $149.35 64.8 +7.7% +26.77% -4.9% uptrend Same reacceleration pattern
ZS $149.94 57.1 +7.7% +20.1% -55.5% downtrend Still death-crossed despite the run

(47 remaining tracked names — AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, META, CRM, NOW, SNOW, DDOG, NET, TMO, LLY, ABBV, UNH, JNJ, COST, WMT, NKE, LULU, SBUX, DPZ, AMD, ANET, ASML, V, MA, XYZ, DIS, HD, CEG, GE, PEP, KO, JPM, GS, BRK-B, SPGI, CME, DE, HON, UPS, RTX, BKNG, ABNB, UBER, PLTR, TTD — sit at RSI 42-66, mixed but not oversold; omitted from a bargain-bin screen by design.)

Tier Analysis

Strict hit, deepeningORCL. Second straight scan of the same "still collapsing, not basing" pattern; RSI and 30-day change both worsened again.

Closest misses, worth trackingISRG and NFLX both sit a fraction of an RSI point above the strict cutoff and below their 20-day average. ISRG is the more notable of the two given how fast it fell (RSI 45.0→30.2 in one cycle) in a name with an intact thesis flag; NFLX is a slower, three-scan grind with no stabilization.

Broken thesis — hard avoidINTU. The explicit thesis: broken tag has now survived two consecutive scans of price improvement; no bounce changes that.

Approaching / discounted, unresolvedMRVL, QCOM, AVGO, LOW, GOOGL, TSLA, CAT, KLAC, LRCX, MCD all carry real discounts (6-39% on 30D) without a confirmed base. MRVL's -39.23% 30-day move is the steepest in this tier.

Ripped into overbought — the bin's mirror imagePYPL's flip from RSI 61.3 to 80.3 (now parabolic) is the cycle's most dramatic single move in either direction; ADBE, WDAY, PANW, CRWD, OKTA, ZS all extended alongside it. This is the clearest read on this cycle's bifurcated tape — cheap names got cheaper while a software cohort got more expensive, in the same window the broad market cooled.


Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI vs 52wk High Setup
ORCL $126.41 Wait for a 30D trend reversal, not just RSI 29.3 -63.4% Deepening for a second straight scan — do not treat the RSI level alone as a bounce signal
ISRG $345.42 Watch for stabilization 30.2 -42.8% Fresh, sharp crack in a quality name with an intact thesis flag — confirm a base before any read
MRVL $188.68 Watch for the 30D trend to turn 35.7 -42.8% Steepest discount in the widened tier; still cooling off a monster prior run
INTU $291.09 Avoid 52.7 -64.2% Broken thesis flag overrides any price-based entry logic

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH (contrarian probe only) ORCL, ISRG, NFLX The strict hit and its two closest misses — all deepening or freshly cracked, no confirmed base
🔍 WATCH (discounted, unresolved) MRVL, QCOM, AVGO, LOW, GOOGL, TSLA, CAT, KLAC, LRCX Real 30-day discounts without a confirmed stabilization signal
❌ AVOID — BROKEN THESIS INTU Explicit broken-thesis flag; do not buy the drawdown regardless of price
⚠️ EXTENDED — DON'T CHASE PYPL, ADBE, WDAY, PANW, CRWD, OKTA, ZS Ran hard in the opposite direction this cycle; the mirror image of the bin's usual theme

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
ORCL's 30D trend If it keeps deepening past -31%, this stops being a "deepest discount" story and becomes a genuine breakdown worth a name-level look
ISRG's next print Fell the fastest of anything in this scan — confirm whether this stabilizes or continues into the strict bin next cycle
NFLX's third straight deterioration No bounce across three scans — watch for either a basing print or a fresh leg down
PYPL's parabolic flag The scan's biggest reversal — watch whether RSI 80+ resolves via a pullback or keeps extending
INTU's broken-thesis flag Confirm whether this gets lifted on the next fundamentals refresh, or whether the bounce stays purely technical
Whether the bifurcated tape persists Discounted industrials/semis vs. extended software/payments — worth tracking whether the gap widens or the two groups converge

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
8 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.