Bargain Bin

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Bargain Bin

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 45 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-17-bargain-bin.md

2026-07-25 Bargain-Bin Scan — TSLA Joins ORCL As A Strict Hit, Enterprise Software Rips While Semis Sell Off The Same Session

Two names clear the strict screen this cycle — RSI below 30 and price below its 20-day average — TSLA (RSI 28.1) and ORCL (RSI 27.5), both freshly qualifying or deepening since last scan. TSLA is new to the strict list this cycle (it sat at RSI 42.5 last scan); ORCL continues a second straight scan of deepening, now -65.3% off its 52-week high. The louder story under the surface is a same-session split: a cluster of legacy enterprise-software names (SAP, NOW, ADBE, WDAY, CRM, INTU) all jumped 4-9% in a single day, while semis-adjacent names (MRVL, KLAC, LRCX, ASML, ORCL) fell 2-7% the same session — the mirror image of the semis-complex selloff visible in this cycle's ETF-universe and tech-insider-buys scans. INTU's explicit broken-thesis flag persists through yet another bounce (+5.26% same day) — per desk doctrine, still an avoid regardless of the chart.

Data as-of the 2026-07-24 close. Source: summaries/bargain-bin.json, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vs SMA20 < 0, then widened to the next-closest cluster — ranked by thesis quality × discount depth. Note: the tracked universe now covers 45 names (was 69 last scan) — the roster has been rebalanced since the prior cycle. Prior scan: 2026-07-17-bargain-bin (2026-07-17 close).


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Two strict hits this cycle (TSLA, ORCL); a same-session split between enterprise software (up hard) and semis (down hard)
Strict hits TSLA (28.1, `collapse`, -35.9% from 52wk high, thesis intact) — new to the list; ORCL (27.5, `collapse`, -65.3% from high, thesis intact) — deepening for a second straight scan
Closest misses GOOGL (32.8), ISRG (31.4), UBER (33.3) — all below their 20-day average, all thesis-intact or unrated
Broken thesis — avoid regardless of price INTU (RSI 55.1, thesis flag explicitly `broken`, -65.4% from high, bounced +5.26% in one session)
Same-day split SAP +9.3%, NOW +7.4%, ADBE +6.1%, WDAY +5.8%, CRM +4.3% all up hard vs. MRVL -7.2%, LRCX -4.6%, ORCL -4.2%, KLAC -3.8%, ASML -2.6% all down hard, same session
Key insight TSLA newly cracking the strict screen alongside ORCL's continued deepening is the cycle's clearest discount signal; the enterprise-software rally is the opposite move, happening in the same session

What's Going On

The strict bargain-bin filter — RSI below 30 and price below its 20-day average — returns two names this cycle. ORCL ($114.99, RSI 27.5, vs-20-day -14.3%, 30D -26.75%, -65.3% off its 52-week high) continues the breakdown flagged over the last two scans — RSI deepened further from 29.3 and the discount from its 52-week high widened from -63.4%. TSLA ($313.03, RSI 28.1, vs-20-day -19.5%, 30D -16.64%, -35.9% off its 52-week high) is new to the strict list this cycle — last scan it sat at RSI 42.5 in the "approaching oversold" tier with only a modest discount; the deterioration since then has been fast (7D -17.81% alone). Both carry a thesis flag of intact, but both are also death-crossed and in collapse regime — the discount is real, the technical structure is not.

By quality × discount, the two hits trade off differently: ORCL's discount is the deeper of the two (-65.3% off its 52-week high versus TSLA's -35.9%), but its longer-run performance context is weaker — down over the trailing year and still compressing (vs-200-day -38.2%). TSLA's discount is shallower but its name recognition and liquidity are higher, and its 1-year change is still roughly flat rather than deeply negative. Neither should be read as a clean value case — both are technical extremes inside collapse regimes, not confirmed bases.

Three names missed the strict cut by a modest margin. GOOGL ($319.74, RSI 32.8, vs-20-day -9.2%, 30D -7.4%) sits in pullback regime with its thesis flagged intact — a mega-cap quality name with a shallower discount (-22.3% off high) than the strict hits. ISRG ($337.50, RSI 31.4, vs-20-day -13.1%, 30D -16.01%) continues its multi-scan decline (RSI 30.2 two scans ago) — still collapse regime, still thesis-intact, the deepest discount of the three misses at -45.0% off its high. UBER ($65.94, RSI 33.3, vs-20-day -9.3%, 30D -10.71%) sits in collapse regime with an unrated thesis, -32.4% off its high.

INTU carries the same explicit thesis: broken flag from last scan (RSI 55.1, -65.4% off its 52-week high, vs-20-day now +6.1% — no longer even below its 20-day average) after a same-session bounce of +5.26% (30D +13.5%). Per desk doctrine, no bounce clears a broken-thesis flag — this stays an avoid regardless of the chart.

The scan's most visible pattern this cycle is a same-session split. A cluster of legacy enterprise-software names all jumped hard the same day: SAP (RSI 51.2, 1D +9.3%, relative volume 2.24x), NOW (RSI 45.8, 1D +7.44%), ADBE (RSI 51.5, 1D +6.1%), WDAY (RSI 50.1, 1D +5.84%), INTU (1D +5.26%, thesis broken), and CRM (RSI 47.5, 1D +4.29%). In the same session, semis-adjacent names sold off hard: MRVL (RSI 39.0, 1D -7.21%, 30D -29.79%), LRCX (RSI 41.2, 1D -4.56%), ORCL (1D -4.21%), KLAC (RSI 43.9, 1D -3.75%), and ASML (RSI 48.3, 1D -2.55%) — the same complex-wide move visible in this cycle's ETF-universe scan (SOXL's -13.14% single-day drop) and tech-insider-buys scan. None of the software names qualify as bargain-bin candidates — this is the bin's mirror image, a reminder that "cheap" and "the broader tape" moved in opposite directions inside the same trading session.


What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-17 → 2026-07-25)

Change Read
TSLA newly cracked the strict screen — RSI 42.5→28.1, 30D -4.91%→-16.64% New this cycle; joins ORCL as the only two strict hits
ORCL deepened further — RSI 29.3→27.5, off-high -63.4%→-65.3% Second straight scan of the same breakdown pattern
NFLX stabilized out of the bin entirely — RSI 30.5→38.2 No longer a close miss; matches the stabilization flagged in this cycle's insider-scan
MRVL improved on RSI even with a hard single-day drop — RSI 35.7→39.0, 30D -39.23%→-29.79%, but 1D -7.21% this session Less discounted on a 30-day basis, but caught in the same-session semis selloff
INTU's broken-thesis flag persists through a third bounce — 30D +9.51%→+13.5%, 1D +5.26% this session Avoid stands regardless of the improving chart
Universe rebalanced from 69 to 45 tracked names The bin now tracks a leaner cross-sector cut; several previously tracked names (healthcare insurers, payments, banks, industrials-conglomerate, cyber-software) are no longer in this file

How To Read The Board

This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime labels (collapse/downtrend/pullback/basing) describe the chart, not a recommendation — a name in collapse with RSI still falling (TSLA, ORCL this cycle) is not the same setup as one where RSI and price have both stabilized. thesis: broken is a hard override: no price level makes a broken-thesis name attractive, and INTU should be avoided regardless of discount. This cycle's real lesson is the same-session split between enterprise software (up hard) and semis (down hard) — a reminder that sector rotation inside a single trading day can look nothing like the broad-index tape, and neither direction alone should be read as market-wide.


Price Table

Strict Hits — Deep Discount, Unresolved

Ticker Price RSI 1D 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
TSLA $313.03 28.1 -2.1% -17.8% -16.6% -35.9% collapse intact New this cycle — deteriorated fast from RSI 42.5 last scan
ORCL $114.99 27.5 -4.2% -9.0% -26.75% -65.3% collapse intact Deepening for a second straight scan

Closest Misses — Below 20-Day Average, RSI 30-35

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
ISRG $337.50 31.4 -2.3% -16.0% -45.0% collapse intact Deepest discount of the three misses; multi-scan decline continuing
GOOGL $319.74 32.8 -7.8% -7.4% -22.3% pullback intact Mega-cap quality, shallower discount
UBER $65.94 33.3 -9.0% -10.7% -32.4% collapse unrated No thesis rating, real discount

Approaching Oversold — Ranked By Quality × Discount

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
AMZN $232.11 37.2 -6.1% -0.9% -16.1% pullback intact Quality anchor, shallowest discount in this tier
TTD $17.29 37.4 -7.0% -2.3% -81.6% collapse unrated Deepest discount in the whole scan, but unrated thesis and weak multi-year performance (alpha1y -97.7%)
QCOM $166.97 37.5 -2.8% -15.4% -34.2% downtrend unrated Real discount, unremarkable otherwise
WMT $109.47 38.1 -4.2% -8.0% -19.8% pullback unrated Shallow discount, defensive name
MRVL $194.23 39.0 +2.9% -29.8% -36.6% pullback unrated Caught in same-session semis selloff (1D -7.2%)

Recovered / Extended (for reference — opposite the bin's usual theme, same session)

Ticker Price RSI 1D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Note
SAP $160.00 51.2 +9.3% +4.75% -51.1% downtrend Biggest single-day mover in either direction; relative volume 2.24x
NOW $98.78 45.8 +7.4% +5.3% -56.3% downtrend Same-session enterprise-software rally
ADBE $225.11 51.5 +6.1% +14.5% -43.6% downtrend Same pattern
WDAY $135.34 50.1 +5.8% +14.6% -48.8% downtrend Same pattern
INTU $296.33 55.1 +5.3% +13.5% -65.4% collapse broken | Bounced again; thesis flag unchanged — avoid
CRM $163.66 47.5 +4.3% +7.1% -42.7% downtrend Same pattern, more modest move
DE $628.16 63.0 +3.0% +4.8% -9.5% basing Strength pocket, unremarkable
HON $243.15 61.8 -1.3% +2.0% -5.4% basing Strength pocket, unremarkable
DPZ $332.97 61.0 +3.0% +15.8% -33.6% downtrend Strength pocket, unremarkable

(28 remaining tracked names — MSFT, NVDA, META, NOW (above), COST, NKE, LULU, MCD, AVGO, AMD, ANET, KLAC, LRCX, ASML, NFLX, DIS, ZS, HD, LOW, CEG, PEP, SPGI, CME, CAT, BKNG, PLTR — sit at RSI 42-63, mixed but not oversold; omitted from a bargain-bin screen by design. KLAC, LRCX, ASML sold off same-session alongside MRVL, part of the semis-complex move noted above.)

Tier Analysis

Strict hits, opposite trajectories convergingTSLA freshly cracked the screen this cycle from a much healthier RSI 42.5; ORCL continues a slower, second-scan-running deepening. Both are collapse regime, thesis-intact, death-crossed — discount is real, structure is not confirmed.

Closest misses, worth trackingISRG, GOOGL, UBER all sit just above the strict cutoff and below their 20-day average. ISRG carries the deepest discount of the three; GOOGL the highest quality anchor (mega-cap, intact thesis, shallower discount).

Broken thesis — hard avoidINTU. The explicit thesis: broken tag has now survived a third consecutive scan of price improvement; the bounce does not clear it.

Approaching / discounted, unresolvedAMZN, TTD, QCOM, WMT, MRVL all carry real discounts without a confirmed base. TTD's -81.6% off-high is the steepest in the entire scan, but its unrated thesis and deeply negative multi-year alpha temper any read on quality.

Same-session split — enterprise software up, semis downSAP's +9.3% single-day move is the biggest mover in either direction this cycle; NOW, ADBE, WDAY, CRM, INTU all rallied the same session that MRVL, LRCX, ORCL, KLAC, ASML sold off. Read this as a rotation inside one trading day, not a market-wide signal either direction.


Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI vs 52wk High Setup
TSLA $313.03 Verify a base, not just the RSI level 28.1 -35.9% Fast deterioration this cycle — see this cycle's insider-scan for the same golden-signal read
ORCL $114.99 Wait for a 30D trend reversal 27.5 -65.3% Deepening for a second straight scan — do not treat the RSI level alone as a bounce signal
ISRG $337.50 Watch for stabilization 31.4 -45.0% Multi-scan decline continuing; confirm a base before any read
INTU $296.33 Avoid 55.1 -65.4% Broken-thesis flag overrides any price-based entry logic

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH (contrarian probe only) TSLA, ORCL, ISRG Strict hits and closest miss — all deepening or freshly cracked, no confirmed base
🔍 WATCH (discounted, unresolved) GOOGL, UBER, AMZN, TTD, QCOM, WMT, MRVL Real discounts without a confirmed stabilization signal
❌ AVOID — BROKEN THESIS INTU Explicit broken-thesis flag; do not buy the drawdown regardless of price
⚠️ EXTENDED — SAME-SESSION RALLY, DON'T CHASE SAP, NOW, ADBE, WDAY, CRM Jumped hard in one session; the mirror image of the bin's usual theme

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
TSLA's next print Newly cracked the strict screen this cycle after fast deterioration — confirm whether this stabilizes or continues down
ORCL's 30D trend Second straight scan of deepening — if it keeps widening past -65% off its high, this becomes a genuine breakdown worth a name-level look
ISRG's next print Multi-scan decline continuing — watch for either a basing print or a fresh leg down
INTU's broken-thesis flag Confirm whether this gets lifted on the next fundamentals refresh, or whether the bounce stays purely technical
Whether the enterprise-software/semis split persists Worth tracking whether SAP/NOW/ADBE/WDAY's rally holds or the semis-complex weakness (MRVL/LRCX/KLAC/ORCL) spreads back into software
MRVL's next print Improved on RSI/30D even after a hard same-session drop — worth confirming which signal wins next cycle

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-24 close — bargain-bin.
8 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.