Bargain Bin
Bargain Bin
2026-08-28 Bargain-Bin Scan — Zero Strict Hits For The First Time This Tracked Window As WMT Recovers Off Last Cycle's Lone Hit, The Closest-Miss Tier Still Splits Cleanly Into Quality Dips (KLAC, CAT, LRCX, ASML) And Genuinely Broken Names (TTD, NKE, LOW, ISRG), INTU's Bounce Finally Cools
No name clears the strict bargain-bin filter this cycle — RSI below 30 AND price below its 20-day average — the first zero-hit cycle in this tracked window. WMT, last cycle's lone strict hit, recovered off the line to RSI 33.2 (was 29.6), 30-day print improving to -9.74% from -5.15%, though its one-year return stayed thin at +7.26% (was +5.86%) with 1-year alpha at -12.61% and the price still -13.1% below its 200-day — still a trend genuinely under test, not a resolved story either way. The closest-miss tier again splits cleanly into two camps: names on a genuine deep pullback inside an intact long trend, and names that are structurally broken. KLAC (RSI 35.9, one-year +96.35%, +3.2% above its 200-day), CAT (RSI 38.4, one-year +84%, +4.3% above its 200-day), LRCX (RSI 44.4, one-year +190.04%, +17.3% above its 200-day), ASML (RSI 43.4, one-year +122.17%, +15.9% above its 200-day), and AMD (RSI 44.8, one-year +176.17%, +38.7% above its 200-day) are all cooling on the short window while remaining above their 200-days with strongly positive one-year returns — deep pullbacks, not breakdowns. TTD (RSI 36.9, one-year -75.49%, -47.3% below its 200-day), NKE (RSI 43.5, one-year -49.18%, -23.9% below its 200-day), LOW (RSI 41.3, one-year -19.22%, -12.2% below its 200-day, thesis: intact despite the broken chart), and ISRG (RSI 45.7, one-year -21.37%, -20.5% below its 200-day, also thesis: intact against a collapse chart) are the opposite case — genuinely broken trends, not cheap entries. INTU's explicit broken-thesis flag survived a ninth straight cycle, but the bounce itself finally cooled — 30D fell sharply to +7.48% from +29.01%, coinciding with a confirmed EPS beat reported August 25 ($4.03 actual vs. $3.59 consensus, +12.3%) — still a hard avoid regardless of the print. ORCL's recovery extended into a seventh confirming cycle, 30D climbing further to +28.12% from +16.39%.
Data as-of the 2026-08-28 close. Source: bargain-bin, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vs-SMA20 < 0, then widened to the next-closest cluster — ranked by long-horizon quality (1-year change, vs-SMA200, thesis state) crossed with discount depth (RSI, vs-SMA20). Prior scan: 2026-08-22-bargain-bin (2026-08-21 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 First zero-strict-hit cycle in this tracked window — the closest-miss tier still cleanly separates quality dips from genuinely broken names |
| Strict hit | None — WMT, last cycle's lone hit, recovered to RSI 33.2, above the strict line |
| Quality dips (deep pullback, trend intact) | KLAC (+96.35% 1Y, +3.2% vs SMA200), CAT (+84% 1Y, +4.3%), LRCX (+190.04% 1Y, +17.3%), ASML (+122.17% 1Y, +15.9%), AMD (+176.17% 1Y, +38.7%) |
| Genuinely broken (below SMA200, negative alpha) | TTD (-75.49% 1Y, -47.3% vs SMA200), NKE (-49.18% 1Y, -23.9%), MCD (-15.12% 1Y, -10.8%), HD (-18.96% 1Y, -4.3%) |
| Flag/chart divergence — two names now | LOW and ISRG both carry `thesis: intact` against charts in `pullback`/`collapse` below their 200-days |
| Broken thesis — avoid regardless of price | INTU (RSI 60, thesis flag explicitly `broken`, -49.22% from high; 30D cooled to +7.48% from +29.01% following a confirmed EPS beat) |
| Key insight | Zero strict hits is not the same as "nothing cheap" — the closest-miss tier this cycle still carries the same split it did last cycle: a "buy the dip" bucket (positive alpha, above the 200-day) and a "value trap" bucket (negative alpha, below the 200-day) |
What's Going On
No name clears the strict bargain-bin filter this cycle — the first zero-hit cycle in this tracked window. WMT ($103.09, RSI 33.2, vs-SMA20 -6.5%, 7D -0.58%, 30D -9.74%, -23.73% off its 52-week high) recovered off last cycle's strict-hit line. Its longer-horizon read stayed genuinely mixed: one-year return of +7.26% (was +5.86%) is thin and positive, but 1-year alpha is -12.61% (still badly lagging the market) and it sits -13.1% below its 200-day with a death cross on the books. This desk checked WMT's news receipt (fetched 2026-08-27, ok, not stale) — the pull shows a Q2 2027 earnings report (2026-08-20), a JPMorgan price-target cut on comp performance (2026-08-21), and an executive stock sale (2026-08-21); the post-earnings analyst downgrade is the sourced context for the continued weakness. Per the desk's long-horizon discipline, this stays a trend genuinely under test — not a "deep pullback in an intact trend" that would justify chasing the discount.
The closest-miss tier — names below their 20-day average without clearing the strict RSI<30 line — splits cleanly into two long-horizon camps this cycle. On the quality-dip side: KLAC ($175.54, RSI 35.9, vs-SMA20 -8.6%, one-year +96.35%, 1-year alpha +76.48%, +3.2% above its 200-day), CAT ($800.25, RSI 38.4, vs-SMA20 -4.6%, one-year +84%, 1-year alpha +64.13%, +4.3% above its 200-day), LRCX ($301.90, RSI 44.4, vs-SMA20 -4.3%, one-year +190.04%, 1-year alpha +170.17%, +17.3% above its 200-day), ASML ($1,696.16, RSI 43.4, vs-SMA20 -3.4%, one-year +122.17%, 1-year alpha +102.3%, +15.9% above its 200-day), AVGO ($368.79, RSI 42.7, vs-SMA20 -5.7%, one-year +20.36%, essentially flat at its 200-day at -0.2%, thesis: intact), and AMD ($465.57, RSI 44.8, vs-SMA20 -3.4%, one-year +176.17%, +38.7% above its 200-day) — all cooling on RSI/30D while their one-year and 200-day fields confirm the underlying trend hasn't broken. On the genuinely-broken side: TTD ($13.57, RSI 36.9, vs-SMA20 -6.6%, one-year -75.49%, 1-year alpha -95.36%, -47.3% below its 200-day, collapse regime, -75.94% off its 52-week high), NKE ($39.60, RSI 43.5, vs-SMA20 -2.7%, one-year -49.18%, 1-year alpha -69.05%, -23.9% below its 200-day, -49.96% off its 52-week high), HD ($330.19, RSI 42.4, vs-SMA20 -3.4%, one-year -18.96%, 1-year alpha -38.83%, -4.3% below its 200-day), and MCD ($265.00, RSI 44.2, vs-SMA20 -1.8%, one-year -15.12%, 1-year alpha -35.0%, -10.8% below its 200-day) — none of these are cheap in any sense that matters; they are underperforming the market on every long-horizon field. In between: WMT, HON ($217.43, RSI 37.7, vs-SMA20 -5.7%, one-year +4.26% but 1-year alpha -15.61%, -1.8% below its 200-day) and COST ($945.47, RSI 48.1, vs-SMA20 -0.6%, one-year +0.05%, -1.5% below its 200-day) sit near-flat on the 200-day with weak-to-negative alpha — marginal, not a clean read either way.
LOW and ISRG both carry an intact thesis flag while their charts show broken structures — a second name has joined this divergence this cycle. LOW ($208.05, RSI 41.3, vs-SMA20 -3.8%, one-year -19.22%, 1-year alpha -39.09%, -12.2% below its 200-day, pullback regime, thesis: intact) deteriorated from last cycle's -15.47%/-9.0% reading. ISRG ($372.60, RSI 45.7, one-year -21.37%, 1-year alpha -41.24%, -20.5% below its 200-day, collapse regime, thesis: intact) — both names' data-tagged thesis flag disagrees with every price-structure field. Flagged here as a divergence worth checking on the next fundamentals refresh, not resolved either way by this scan.
INTU carries the same explicit thesis: broken flag it has held across the last several scans, but the bounce itself finally cooled this cycle. ($358.06, RSI 60, -49.22% off its 52-week high, vs-SMA20 +4% — still above its 20-day average — 30D fell sharply to +7.48% from +29.01%.) This coincides with a confirmed EPS beat reported August 25 (2026-08-25-intu-earnings: $4.03 actual vs. $3.59 consensus, +12.3% surprise) — the print itself beat estimates, yet the multi-cycle bounce cooled rather than extending. Per desk doctrine, no earnings beat clears a broken-thesis flag — this stays an avoid regardless of the print or the chart.
ORCL's recovery extended into a seventh straight confirming cycle. ($150.85, RSI 56.1, was 52.7) and 30D climbed further to +28.12% from +16.39% — still -56.37% off its 52-week high and carrying a thesis: intact flag despite sitting -11.6% below its 200-day, but the multi-cycle momentum trend keeps extending.
SPGI recovered off the closest-miss list further this cycle, RSI climbing to 62.5 (was 56.7) — now solidly above its 20-day average. DE ($630.33, RSI 54.9, was 62.4) cooled from its own extension while staying +28.26% on the year and +12% above its 200-day.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-21 → 2026-08-28)
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| First zero-strict-hit cycle in this tracked window — WMT recovered from RSI 29.6 to 33.2 | No name currently clears RSI<30 AND vs-SMA20<0 |
| TTD improved slightly but stays genuinely broken — RSI 31.5→36.9, still -47.3% below its 200-day | One-year -75.49% and 1-year alpha -95.36% confirm this is not a discount |
| LOW deteriorated, joins ISRG in the flag/chart divergence — one-year -15.47%→-19.22%, vs-SMA200 -9.0%→-12.2% | `thesis: intact` now disagrees with two names' charts, not one |
| INTU's bounce finally cooled — 30D +29.01%→+7.48%, coinciding with a confirmed EPS beat | Avoid stands regardless of the print; nine straight cycles with the broken-thesis flag unchanged |
| ORCL's recovery extended into a seventh confirming cycle — 30D +16.39%→+28.12% | Continues the multi-cycle momentum trend |
| HON improved off last cycle's deterioration — RSI 33.3→37.7 | Still marginal — near-flat 200-day, weak alpha |
| AVGO's 200-day test is unresolved — vs-SMA200 essentially unchanged at -0.2% | Same real test of the trend flagged last cycle, not yet decided either way |
| NKE's RSI cooled slightly — 46.0→43.5 | Still -49.18% on the year and -23.9% below its 200-day — remains genuinely broken |
How To Read The Board
This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime labels (collapse/downtrend/pullback/basing) describe the chart, not a recommendation — and a zero-strict-hit cycle does not mean nothing here is worth a look, because the closest-miss tier still carries a real quality split. Two names can carry the same RSI in the high-30s to mid-40s and mean completely different things: KLAC and CAT are cooling off one-year returns near or above 90%, still above their 200-days; TTD and NKE are cooling off one-year returns deeply negative, well below their 200-days. Per desk doctrine, the first group is a deep pullback inside an intact trend — the second is a name whose trend is genuinely broken, and no RSI reading makes it a value name. thesis: broken is a hard override: no price level and no earnings beat makes INTU attractive, nine cycles and a confirmed EPS beat in. LOW and ISRG's intact flags sitting against broken charts are flagged, not resolved — that discrepancy is a fundamentals-side question this scan can't answer with price data alone, and it is worth noting that a second name joined this divergence this cycle rather than the first one resolving.
Price Table
Strict Hit — Deep Discount, Below RSI 30 And 20-Day Average
None this cycle. WMT, the lone hit last cycle, recovered to RSI 33.2 — above the strict line.
Closest Misses — Quality Dips (Deep Pullback, Trend Intact)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 30D | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Thesis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | $175.54 | 35.9 | +3.14% | +96.4% | +3.2% | unrated | Cooling hard on RSI, huge year intact |
| CAT | $800.25 | 38.4 | +2.24% | +84.0% | +4.3% | unrated | Same pattern as KLAC |
| AVGO | $368.79 | 42.7 | -0.41% | +20.4% | -0.2% | intact | Still testing its 200-day directly, unresolved |
| ASML | $1,696.16 | 43.4 | +9.38% | +122.2% | +15.9% | unrated | Cooled from RSI 50.5 |
| LRCX | $301.90 | 44.4 | +19.64% | +190.0% | +17.3% | unrated | Huge cushion despite the RSI cooldown |
| AMD | $465.57 | 44.8 | +8.38% | +176.2% | +38.7% | unrated | Barely below its 20-day, massive year |
Closest Misses — Marginal (Near-Flat 200-Day, Weak Alpha)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 30D | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HON | $217.43 | 37.7 | -9.82% | +4.3% | -1.8% | Improved off last cycle's RSI 33.3 |
| WMT | $103.09 | 33.2 | -9.74% | +7.3% | -13.1% | Recovered off last cycle's strict hit; trend under test |
| COST | $945.47 | 48.1 | -2.93% | +0.05% | -1.5% | Near-flat on every window |
Closest Misses — Genuinely Broken (Below SMA200, Negative Alpha)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 30D | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTD | $13.57 | 36.9 | -28.92% | -75.5% | -47.3% | Improved off RSI 31.5 but still not a discount |
| MCD | $265.00 | 44.2 | -2.40% | -15.1% | -10.8% | Negative alpha |
| NKE | $39.60 | 43.5 | -8.38% | -49.2% | -23.9% | Still broken on every long-horizon field |
| HD | $330.19 | 42.4 | -2.39% | -19.0% | -4.3% | Negative alpha despite a small 200-day gap |
Flag/Chart Divergence (thesis state intact, chart broken)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Regime | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | $208.05 | 41.3 | -19.2% | -12.2% | pullback | Deteriorated from last cycle's -15.5%/-9.0% |
| ISRGE | $372.60 | 45.7 | -21.4% | -20.5% | collapse | Second cycle of a worsening chart against an unchanged `intact` flag |
Recovered / Extended (for reference — opposite the bin's usual theme)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 30D | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | $164.19 | 48.5 | +5.47% | +2.1% | -2.2% | Improved from -4.4% vs-SMA200 |
| DE | $630.33 | 54.9 | +3.17% | +28.3% | +12.0% | Cooled from RSI 62.4, still extended |
| SPGI | $442.89 | 62.5 | +5.54% | -19.1% | -1.6% | Recovered further off the closest-miss list |
| ORCL | $150.85 | 56.1 | +28.1% | -37.2% | -11.6% | Seventh confirming cycle; 30-day gain extended further |
| NOW | $144.71 | 72.7 | +25.0% | -22.1% | +21.3% | Extended sharply |
| CRM | $256.00 | 80.8 | +35.9% | +0.6% | +27.8% | Extended sharply into `parabolic` |
| ADBE | $291.52 | 68.8 | +10.7% | -17.6% | +8.3% | Extended |
| INTU | $358.06 | 60 | +7.5% | -46.4% | -17.7% | broken | Bounce cooled sharply after a confirmed earnings beat — avoid |
| WDAY | $204.72 | 66.2 | +21.9% | -10.4% | +27.3% | Extended |
| SAP | $221.54 | 71.3 | +19.1% | -19.6% | +12.3% | Extended into overbought |
| BKNG | $205.63 | 53.1 | +2.15% | -9.1% | +10.6% | Roughly flat |
| PLTR | $186.29 | 69.3 | +51.5% | +17.8% | +23.1% | Extended sharply, thesis intact |
(Remaining tracked names — MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, TMO, DIS, ZS, CEG, PEP, CME, ANET, MRVL, NFLX, UBER — sit at RSI 42-81, mixed but not oversold; omitted from a bargain-bin screen by design.)
Tier Analysis
First zero-strict-hit cycle in this tracked window — WMT recovered off the line; its thin one-year gain against negative alpha and a below-200-day chart keeps it a trend under test, not a clean value call.
Quality dips — deep pullback, trend intact — KLAC, CAT, AVGO, ASML, LRCX, AMD are all cooling on the short window while remaining above their 200-days with strongly positive one-year returns.
Genuinely broken — not a discount — TTD, NKE, HD, MCD sit below their 200-days with negative 1-year alpha; no RSI reading here should be read as cheap.
Broken thesis — hard avoid — INTU. The explicit thesis: broken tag has now survived nine consecutive scans, and the bounce cooled even after a confirmed earnings beat.
Flag/chart divergence, now two names — LOW and ISRG both carry an intact thesis flag against broken charts; worth a fundamentals-side check on both.
Broadly extended, several cooling from overbought extremes — ORCL's recovery deepens into a seventh confirming cycle; SPGI recovered further off the closest-miss list.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | vs SMA200 | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | $103.09 | Trend under test — watch the 200-day | 33.2 | -13.1% | Thin +7.26% 1Y, negative alpha; the 200-day is the level to watch |
| KLAC / CAT / LRCX / ASML | $175.54 / $800.25 / $301.90 / $1,696.16 | Deep pullback inside an intact trend | 35.9-44.4 | +3.2% to +17.3% | All cooling on RSI while carrying strong one-year returns |
| TTD / NKE / HD | $13.57 / $39.60 / $330.19 | Avoid — structurally broken, not cheap | 36.9-43.5 | -4.3% to -47.3% | Negative on every long-horizon field |
| INTU | $358.06 | Avoid | 60 | -17.7% | Broken-thesis flag overrides any price or earnings-based entry logic, nine cycles in |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔍 WATCH — TREND UNDER TEST | WMT | Recovered off last cycle's strict hit; mixed long-horizon signal, watch the 200-day |
| 🔍 WATCH — DEEP PULLBACK, TREND INTACT | KLAC, CAT, AVGO, ASML, LRCX, AMD | Cooling on RSI while strongly positive on 1-year change and above their 200-days |
| ❌ AVOID — STRUCTURALLY BROKEN | TTD, NKE, HD, MCD | Below their 200-days with negative 1-year alpha; not a discount |
| ❌ AVOID — BROKEN THESIS | INTU | Explicit broken-thesis flag; a confirmed earnings beat did not clear it |
| 🔍 VERIFY — FLAG/CHART DIVERGENCE | LOW, ISRG | `thesis: intact` against broken charts, both worsening or unchanged |
| ⚠️ EXTENDED — DON'T CHASE | WDAY, SAP, ADBE, NOW, CRM, BKNG, ORCL, PLTR | Positive 30-day territory; several cooling from overbought but still extended |
| 🔍 ROUGHLY FLAT | QCOM, COST, HON, SPGI, DE | Off the strict list, marginal to improving on the long-horizon fields |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether WMT's 200-day holds or breaks | Currently -13.1% below it; the level that decides whether this is a base or a genuine breakdown |
| Whether AVGO's test of its 200-day (-0.2%) resolves up or down | Unresolved for a second straight cycle |
| Whether TTD tests the strict screen again | RSI improved slightly to 36.9 but still -47.3% below its 200-day |
| ORCL's next print | Seventh confirming cycle — watch whether the 30-day trend keeps extending or finally cools |
| INTU's broken-thesis flag | A confirmed earnings beat did not lift it this cycle — watch whether the next fundamentals refresh changes that |
| LOW and ISRG's thesis flags vs. their charts | Both `intact` per the data despite broken structures — worth a direct fundamentals check on both names |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year change/1-year alpha/vs 200-day): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — bargain-bin.
- WMT context: latest (fetched 2026-08-27, ok, not stale) — Q2 2027 earnings (2026-08-20), JPMorgan price-target cut (2026-08-21).
- INTU earnings: 2026-08-25-intu-earnings (confirmed beat, EPS $4.03 vs. $3.59 consensus).
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.