Bargain Bin Scan
Bargain Bin Scan
Booking Holdings just posted this scan's first true capitulation-tier reading — a momentum score of 21.4 — while the rest of the consumer/retail cohort that filled the bin last week quietly graduated out. The strict filter caught two names this week instead of three: Booking (RSI 21.4, down from 27.4) and a new arrival, McDonald's (RSI 25.9), which fell 4.81% in a single session today. PepsiCo and Home Depot, both strict hits a week ago, moved back above the RSI-30 line even as neither name's underlying trend actually repaired. The genuinely intact trends in this universe — AMD, Marvell, Lam Research, KLA, Caterpillar — are still nowhere near the bin, and KLA meaningfully repaired its year this week.
Data as of the settled 2026-09-23 close. The strict filter is momentum below 30 combined with a price below the 20-day average, applied to all 44 names.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 The bin thinned to two names, but the worst of them is now the most oversold reading this scan has recorded |
| Strict hits | BKNG (RSI 21.4, first capitulation-tier reading here — below 25), MCD (RSI 25.9, new arrival, -4.81% in one session) |
| Graduated out | PEP — momentum 25.4 → 30.3; HD — momentum 28.3 → 32.3. Neither name's underlying trend improved; both are still below their 200-days with negative years |
| Best quality on the board | AMD (1Y +282.0%, 70.4% above its 200-day, still extending), MRVL (+249.6%), LRCX (+132.9%, improved from +128.1%), KLAC (+75.4%, up sharply from +69.1%), CAT (+72.3%) |
| Worst on the board | TTD (1Y -72.9%, 46.1% below its 200-day, 77.5% off its high, deepening again), INTU (-59.0%, thesis flagged broken), NKE (-49.2%), LULU (-41.0%) |
| Caveat | No news pull on file covers today's specific drops in Booking or McDonald's — Booking's news was last pulled 2026-09-19 (before today's move), McDonald's 2026-08-04, and no September event exists on record for either. Each drop is reported with no cause, not a guessed one |
| Key insight | The bin got smaller in count but worse in kind — its remaining two members are both deeper into distress than any strict hit this scan has shown, while the names that graduated out did so on a momentum bounce, not a trend repair |
What's Going On
Booking Holdings is now the most oversold name this scan has recorded. It closed $155.90, momentum 21.4 — the first reading below 25 in this tracked window — down 9.04% on the week and 26.93% on the month, the largest one-month decline on this board by a wide margin. One-year return -29.25% (deepening from -22.88%), 15.4% below its 200-day (from -9.2%), 30.71% off its 52-week high. One structural detail still separates it from the rest of the bin: its 50-day average ($192.17) remains above its 200-day ($184.37) — a golden cross retained even as price collapses under both lines. News on file dates to August 4 and does not cover this move; the event record holds nothing for Booking this week. The drop is reported without a cause.
McDonald's is a new arrival at the second-worst reading, driven by a single session. It closed $238.32, down 4.81% today alone and 12.56% on the month, momentum 25.9. One-year return -21.4%, 18.5% below its 200-day, both moving-averages inverted (death cross). News on file predates the move and the event record holds nothing for today. Unlike Booking, McDonald's shows no structural quality signal left — this is a confirmed downtrend, not a discount.
PepsiCo and Home Depot both moved out of the strict filter, and neither did it by repairing. PepsiCo's momentum rose to 30.3 from 25.4 while its one-year return stayed negative at -8.3% (roughly flat from -7.8%) and it remains 12.0% below its 200-day. Home Depot's momentum rose to 32.3 from 28.3 while its one-year return actually worsened to -27.8% from -28.2% and its 200-day gap held near -13.1%. Both graduated on a momentum tick, not on price strength — a distinction the strict filter alone can't show.
The quality cohort kept extending, and KLA repaired meaningfully. AMD is again the standout: $614.61, up 19.92% on the week and 34.56% on the month, one-year return improving to +282.0% from +254.5% and its 200-day cushion widening to +70.4% from +57.9%. KLA's one-year return jumped to +75.4% from +69.1% and its cushion widened to +7.2% from +1.6% — the name flagged last week as "closest to losing its 200-day" moved further from that line. Lam Research improved to +132.9% from +128.1%. Caterpillar and Marvell held roughly steady at +72.3% and +249.6%.
The broken-thesis flag on Intuit deepened for a sixth straight week. $286.80, momentum 32.8, 12.2% under its 20-day, down 22.47% on the month, -59.0% on the year (from -55.1%), 29.6% below its 200-day, 59.3% off its 52-week high. Nothing has cleared the flag at any point in this tracked window and each week the numbers get worse.
The Trade Desk deepened further with no receipt on file. $12.68, one-year return -72.9% (from -68.3%), 46.1% below its 200-day, 77.5% off its high — still the most broken name in this universe on every long-horizon measure. News on file dates to August 15 and predates the move; the event record holds nothing for September. This continues without an explanation.
Google closed the session down 3.8% and now sits exactly on its 200-day. $337.83, vs SMA200 0.0%, momentum 45.1. One-year return is still positive at +34.24%, so this is not a broken trend, but it is the first time this name's read has landed precisely on the line rather than clearly above or below it. No news pull on file covers today's drop, and no event is on record for the move.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-18 → 2026-09-23)
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| Strict hits changed composition, 3 → 2 — PEP and HD out, BKNG deepened, MCD new in | The bin got smaller but its remaining members are more extreme |
| BKNG hit this scan's first capitulation-tier reading — RSI 27.4 → 21.4 | Below 25 for the first time in the tracked window; 50-day still above the 200-day |
| MCD arrived on a single-session drop — RSI 31.6 → 25.9, -4.81% today | No cause on file |
| PEP and HD graduated on momentum, not on trend repair — PEP 25.4 → 30.3 (1Y still -8.3%); HD 28.3 → 32.3 (1Y worsened to -27.8%) | Both remain below their 200-days with negative years |
| KLA repaired meaningfully — 1Y +69.1% → +75.4%, cushion +1.6% → +7.2% | The quality name flagged as closest to breaking moved further from that line |
| AMD improved on every long window again — 1Y +254.5% → +282.0%, cushion +57.9% → +70.4% | The only quality name extending harder than last week |
| TTD deepened further — 1Y -68.3% → -72.9%, 200-day gap -41.8% → -46.1% | Still no receipt covering the ongoing decline |
| INTU worsened for a sixth week — 1Y -55.1% → -59.0%, 200-day gap -26.5% → -29.6% | The broken flag has never been cleared |
| COST and LULU both graduated out of the closest-miss tier — COST 35.9 → 41.9; LULU 36.4 → 43.0 | Both moved above RSI 40 this week |
How To Read The Board
This screen finds cheap, and cheap is not the same as buyable. The strict filter is mechanical — momentum below 30 and a price under the 20-day average — and it says only that a name has fallen hard and recently. What decides whether that is a discount or damage is the pair of long-horizon columns: a name above its 200-day with a positive one-year return is in a deep pullback inside an intact trend, and a name below its 200-day with a negative year has a trend genuinely under test. Both of this week's strict hits fall in the second group. Where a thesis flag reads broken (Intuit), that is a standing override no price level has cleared across six weeks. Where a drop has no news receipt covering it, this scan says so explicitly rather than reaching for a reason: the pulls on file for Booking, McDonald's, The Trade Desk and Google all predate the moves described here, and a stale pull is never evidence that nothing happened.
Price Table
Strict Hits — Momentum Below 30 And Price Under The 20-Day
Ranked by quality times discount: how much long trend survives, against how far the name has fallen.
| Rank | Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | 52wk Hi | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BKNG | $155.90 | 21.4 | -14.5% | -9.04% | -26.93% | -29.25% | -15.4% | -30.71% | 🔴 First capitulation-tier reading here; 50-day still above the 200-day |
| 2 | MCD | $238.32 | 25.9 | -6.5% | -4.12% | -12.56% | -21.40% | -18.5% | -30.26% | 🔴 New arrival on a single-session drop; death-crossed |
Closest Misses (momentum 30-40, price under the 20-day)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | $130.18 | 30.3 | -4.6% | -3.10% | -10.02% | -8.26% | -12.0% | 🔴 Graduated out of strict on momentum only |
| HD | $296.72 | 32.3 | -5.2% | -1.90% | -12.06% | -27.79% | -13.1% | 🔴 Graduated out of strict; year worsened |
| INTU | $286.80 | 32.8 | -12.2% | -9.85% | -22.47% | -59.08% | -29.6% | 🔴 Thesis flagged broken, sixth week worse |
| DPZ | $296.43 | 33.6 | -8.0% | -1.62% | -15.07% | -30.07% | -17.3% | 🔴 Weak, deepening |
| TTD | $12.68 | 33.7 | -9.5% | -12.49% | -4.45% | -72.94% | -46.1% | 🔴 Most broken name here; no cause on file |
| LOW | $191.36 | 34.7 | -3.9% | -1.41% | -11.81% | -26.35% | -18.1% | 🔴 Moving as one with HD |
| NKE | $36.05 | 36.6 | -3.5% | +0.75% | -11.53% | -49.18% | -27.6% | 🔴 Deeply broken |
| UBER | $69.42 | 36.9 | -5.4% | -2.18% | -12.45% | -29.02% | -7.9% | 🔴 Under test |
| NFLXE | $71.36 | 37.1 | -8.1% | -6.61% | -10.81% | -41.44% | -16.0% | 🔴 Deeply broken |
| ADBE | $240.69 | 39.2 | -8.9% | -3.92% | -12.88% | -33.47% | -8.7% | 🔴 Under test |
Quality Dips — Deep Pullbacks Inside Intact Trends
Positive one-year return and above the 200-day. These are the names a discount would actually be worth taking, and none of them is discounted.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | 52wk Hi | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $614.61 | 71.0 | +19.8% | +34.56% | +282.0% | +70.4% | -1.61% | 🟢 Improving on every window; no discount |
| MRVL | $260.90 | 63.1 | +12.9% | +13.79% | +249.6% | +62.2% | -20.91% | 🟢 Intact |
| LRCX | $307.28 | 53.0 | +3.5% | -0.93% | +132.9% | +14.0% | -29.92% | 🟢 Best discount among intact trends |
| ASML | $1,744.61 | 55.0 | +3.4% | +0.26% | +81.07% | +14.9% | -12.77% | 🟢 Intact, cushion widening |
| CAT | $812.02 | 48.9 | +1.0% | +0.12% | +72.31% | +3.1% | -24.35% | 🟢 Intact, cushion thin |
| KLAC | $187.86 | 54.1 | +5.5% | +3.46% | +75.37% | +7.2% | -38.88% | 🟢 Repaired sharply this week |
| DE | $709.48 | 67.9 | +5.0% | +9.38% | +50.42% | +22.2% | -1.63% | 🟢 Strong month, no discount |
| GOOGL | $337.83 | 45.1 | -1.2% | -2.94% | +34.24% | 0.0% | -17.32% | 🟡 Sitting exactly on its 200-day today |
| ANET | $203.47 | 57.9 | +3.7% | +8.14% | +41.21% | +30.2% | -5.31% | 🟢 Intact |
| TMO | $665.30 | 71.5 | +5.9% | +5.81% | +41.63% | +23.4% | -0.92% | 🟠 Near its high, no discount |
| NVDA | $225.51 | 55.7 | +2.0% | +8.17% | +26.39% | +13.3% | -4.66% | 🟢 Intact |
Broken Thesis Override
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | 52wk Hi | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | $286.80 | 32.8 | -59.08% | -29.6% | -59.3% | 🔴 Flagged broken; sixth straight week deteriorating |
The Rest
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | $744.10 | 77.0 | +15.9% | +10.51% | +33.11% | -1.50% | +19.0% | 🟠 Overbought, negative year |
| ZS | $214.45 | 70.5 | +16.3% | +11.94% | +21.81% | -25.87% | +27.8% | 🟠 Overbought, year still broken |
| PLTR | $191.79 | 66.9 | +8.1% | +10.01% | +9.04% | +5.06% | +26.2% | 🟢 Flat year, cushion intact |
| ISRGE | $398.30 | 62.0 | +6.0% | +4.19% | +6.62% | -11.04% | -12.0% | 🟡 Good week, long trend still under test |
| CME | $270.80 | 47.2 | -2.5% | -0.61% | -3.00% | +3.37% | -2.8% | 🟡 At its 200-day |
| TSLA | $380.12 | 60.6 | +4.7% | +6.16% | +8.93% | -10.74% | -4.1% | 🟡 Under test |
| MSFT | $500.59 | 56.2 | +0.2% | +2.10% | +2.73% | -1.70% | +15.9% | 🟡 Flat year, wide cushion |
| CRM | $237.58 | 52.9 | -4.0% | -5.17% | +13.64% | -2.85% | +17.9% | 🟡 Strong month, flat year |
| NOW | $140.78 | 57.8 | +1.8% | +0.69% | +9.94% | -24.12% | +20.4% | 🟡 Negative year over a positive cushion |
| SAP | $210.62 | 52.1 | -1.2% | -1.21% | -3.68% | -20.60% | +8.2% | 🟡 Negative year over a positive cushion |
| ORCL | $144.56 | 46.7 | -3.5% | +0.98% | +1.48% | -53.94% | -12.6% | 🔴 Deeply broken year |
| WDAY | $192.38 | 52.6 | -0.6% | +2.46% | -3.40% | -19.95% | +21.5% | 🟡 Negative year, wide cushion |
| AMZN | $249.27 | 44.1 | -2.3% | +1.35% | -4.88% | +12.94% | +3.6% | 🟢 Mild pullback, intact |
| QCOM | $197.24 | 66.4 | +11.0% | +6.71% | +24.42% | +16.35% | +16.8% | 🟢 Fully repaired |
| AVGO | $354.99 | 44.4 | -1.2% | +4.56% | -1.05% | +4.74% | -3.7% | 🟡 Still stuck at its 200-day test line |
| WMT | $110.53 | 57.6 | +3.6% | +2.82% | +3.79% | +7.81% | -6.8% | 🟡 Flat year, below its 200-day |
| DIS | $103.46 | 45.3 | -2.5% | -3.30% | -6.46% | -7.83% | -0.5% | 🟡 At its 200-day |
| COST | $904.70 | 41.9 | -1.2% | +1.23% | -6.87% | -4.12% | -5.8% | 🟡 Graduated out of the closest-miss tier |
| LULU | $102.28 | 43.0 | -4.0% | +6.56% | -16.70% | -40.99% | -31.0% | 🔴 Graduated on momentum only, still deeply broken |
| HON | $212.57 | 49.3 | +1.7% | +2.36% | -1.02% | +7.79% | -4.5% | 🟡 Flat |
| CEG | $263.88 | 43.8 | -4.4% | +1.68% | -3.49% | -21.62% | -9.4% | 🟡 Partial stabilization from last week's breakdown |
| SPGI | $406.50 | 41.7 | -3.7% | -0.06% | -6.64% | -18.17% | -8.4% | 🔴 Under test |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): BKNG (21.4). The first reading below 25 in this tracked window — a genuinely new low for this scan, not a continuation of last week's oversold names.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): MCD (25.9), PEP (30.3), HD (32.3), INTU (32.8), DPZ (33.6), TTD (33.7), LOW (34.7), NKE (36.6), UBER (36.9), NFLX (37.1), ADBE (39.2). Eleven names. Not one member of this tier is above its 200-day average, and every one carries a negative one-year return — this tier remains structural damage, not discount, exactly as flagged last week.
Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+): The remaining 31 names, topped by META (77.0, overbought), ZS (70.5, overbought), TMO (71.5) and DE (67.9). Two names are now above 70 for the first time in this scan's tracked window.
Entry Zones
Conditions, not advice. Each row says what would have to be true.
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| LRCX | Current $307.28; 200-day $269.43, support shelf $236.04 | +132.9% year with a 14.0% cushion — the cleanest combination of discount and intact trend on the board |
| KLAC | Current $187.86; 200-day $175.28, support shelf $180.94 | Repaired sharply this week — cushion widened to +7.2% from +1.6% — but still 38.9% off its high |
| ASML, CAT | ASML $1,744.61 (200-day $1,518.69); CAT $812.02 (200-day $787.43, shelf $779.31) | Both intact with thin-to-moderate cushions; the CAT cushion at +3.1% is the closer test |
| AVGO | Current $354.99; 200-day $368.79, support shelf $345.49 | Still stuck right at its 200-day with a barely positive year; a reclaim of $368.79 is the condition |
| BKNG | Watch its 200-day $184.37; current $155.90 | First capitulation-tier reading here, but the 50-day is still above the 200-day — the one structural detail keeping this from a confirmed downtrend |
| GOOGL | Current $337.83; sitting exactly on its 200-day | Today's -3.8% session landed the stock precisely on the line with the year still positive at +34.24%. No cause on file for the drop |
| MCD, HD, LOW, DPZ, NKE, LULU, ORCL, TTD, INTU | Not zones — damage | Negative years below their 200-day averages. Cheap momentum on a broken long trend |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX, KLAC | 🟢 | 📈 Accumulate | Intact trends with real discounts; KLAC repaired sharply this week |
| AMD, MRVL, DE, ANET, GOOGL, NVDA | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Strong intact trends; no discount available |
| ASML, CAT | 🟢 | 📈 Accumulate | Pullbacks inside strong years |
| AVGO | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Still the most undecided trend here |
| BKNG | 🔴 | 🚨 Alert | First capitulation-tier reading this scan has recorded; verify before treating it as a discount |
| MCD | 🔴 | 🚨 Alert | New arrival on a single-session -4.81% drop; no cause on file |
| PEP, HD | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Graduated out of strict on momentum only; trends did not repair |
| INTU | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | Thesis flagged broken; sixth straight week of deterioration |
| TTD | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | -72.9% on the year and deepening; no explanation on record |
| NKE, LULU, DPZ, ORCL, NFLX, ADBE | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Deeply negative years below their 200-days |
| CEG | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Partial stabilization from last week's breakdown |
| COST, LULU | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Graduated above RSI 40 without repairing the underlying trend |
| TMO, ZS, META | 🟠 | ⚠️ Avoid | Overbought — the opposite of this screen's purpose |
What To Watch Next
- Does Booking find a floor, or does the golden cross break too? Its 50-day is still above its 200-day even at RSI 21.4 — the one remaining structural thread. If the moving averages invert next, the "quality" side of this read disappears.
- Does McDonald's single-session drop get a cause? No news pull or event on record covers today's -4.81% move.
- KLA's continued repair. Its cushion moved from +1.6% to +7.2% in one week — the strongest single-week structural change among the quality names.
- PepsiCo and Home Depot's momentum bounce. Both graduated out of the strict filter without repairing their underlying trends — whether they slide back in is a cleaner read than the count alone.
- Google's exact 200-day sit. A -3.8% session with no receipt landed the stock precisely on its long-run average; the next session resolves which side it lands on.
Sources: bargain-bin (all 44 rows, latest bar 2026-09-23 — every price, momentum, moving-average and return figure above; strict filter applied programmatically to that file); 2026-09-18-bargain-bin (prior-week comparison values); news receipts checked and found to predate the moves described — latest and .../MCD/news/latest.json (both pulled 2026-08-04), .../TTD/news/latest.json (2026-08-15), .../GOOGL/news/latest.json (2026-09-22), .../CEG/news/latest.json (2026-09-19); research/stock-events/ checked and holds no entries for BKNG, MCD, TTD, GOOGL or CEG in the 2026-09-19 through 2026-09-23 window.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.