Bargain Bin Scan
Bargain Bin Scan
Three names cleared the strict discount filter this week — PepsiCo, Booking Holdings and Home Depot — up from one a week ago, and not one of them is a quality name on sale. All three are below their 200-day averages with negative one-year returns, which means the discount is attached to a long trend under test rather than a pullback inside an intact one. Honeywell, last week's single hit, graduated out entirely as its momentum recovered to 38.6 from 29.3. The genuinely intact trends in this universe — AMD, Marvell, Lam Research, ASML, Caterpillar, Deere — are still nowhere near the bin, and most of them cooled on the trailing one-year window this week rather than on price.
Data as of the settled Friday 2026-09-18 close. The strict filter is momentum below 30 combined with a price below the 20-day average, applied to all 45 names.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Three strict hits, all of them cheap for a reason — none has a positive year or a positive 200-day cushion |
| Strict hits | PEP (RSI 25.4, 6.3% under its 20-day), BKNG (27.4, 11.5% under), HD (28.3, 5.8% under) |
| Graduated out | HON — momentum 29.3 → 38.6, now only 1.6% under its 20-day and up 2.03% on the week |
| Best quality on the board | AMD (1Y +254.5%, 57.9% above its 200-day — and it improved again this week), MRVL (+229.0%), LRCX (+128.1%), ASML (+81.0%), CAT (+73.25%), DE (+43.7%) |
| Worst on the board | TTD (1Y -68.3%, 41.8% below its 200-day, 75.3% off its high), INTU (-55.1%, thesis flagged broken), NKE (-50.8%), LULU (-42.2%) |
| Caveat | No news pull on file covers this week for any of the three strict hits — PepsiCo's was pulled 2026-08-25, Home Depot's 2026-08-23, Booking's 2026-08-04, and no September entry exists for any of them in this desk's event record. Each drop is reported with no cause, not a guessed one |
| Key insight | The bin filled up this week, and it filled up with consumer and rate-sensitive names, not with discounted quality. Ranked on quality times discount, the best of the three is still a long trend under test |
What's Going On
PepsiCo is the deepest strict hit and the one with the most long trend left. It closed $129.75 with momentum at 25.4 — the lowest reading in this universe — 6.3% under its 20-day average, down 4.82% on the week and 9.0% on the month, 24.3% off its 52-week high. Its one-year return is -7.8%, shallow by the standards of this list but negative, and it trades 12.5% below its 200-day average with the year's excess return at -22.8. This desk pulled news on August 25; nothing in that pull covers a September move, and the event record holds no September entry for the name. The drop is reported without a cause.
Booking Holdings has the single deepest monthly drawdown in the universe. $167.90, momentum 27.4, 11.5% under its 20-day and down 21.17% over thirty days — the largest one-month decline on this board by a wide margin. One-year return -22.9%, 9.2% below its 200-day, 25.4% off its high. One structural detail separates it from the other two: its 50-day is still above its 200-day, so the long-run moving-average signal has not turned negative yet, while PepsiCo's and Home Depot's have. Its nearest support shelf on record is $164.18, roughly 2% under Friday's close. News was pulled August 4; it does not cover this move.
Home Depot is the deepest year of the three and the only one in a confirmed downtrend. $299.98, momentum 28.3, 5.8% under its 20-day, down 12.87% on the month, -28.2% on the year, 12.3% below its 200-day, 28.8% off its high. Lowe's sits right beside it and missed the strict line by 0.7 of a momentum point (30.7, 4.9% under its 20-day, -28.1% on the year, 17.9% below its 200-day). The two home-improvement names are moving as one, which is the clearest industry signal on this board.
The quality cohort is still extending away from the bin, but most of it cooled on the year this week. AMD is the exception and the standout: $559.82, up 8.46% on the week and 20.02% on the month, one-year return improving to +254.5% from +231.6% and its 200-day cushion widening to +57.9% from +48.8%. Everything else in the cohort gave back trailing-year gains as the window rolled: Lam Research +158.0% to +128.1%, ASML +111.3% to +81.0%, KLA +88.3% to +69.1%, Caterpillar +89.8% to +73.3%. Those are window effects on a one-year lookback, not price declines — all five are still positive on the year and above their 200-day averages, and KLA is the one to watch, with its cushion compressed to +1.6% from +4.5%.
The broken-thesis flag on Intuit deepened for a fifth straight week. $303.19, momentum 38.0, 10.0% under its 20-day, down 16.35% on the month, -55.1% on the year (from -51.3%), 26.5% below its 200-day, 57.0% off its 52-week high. Nothing in the price action has cleared the flag at any point in this tracked window, and each week the numbers behind it get worse.
The Trade Desk traded 8.6 times its normal volume on Friday and closed down 2.38%, with no cause on file. $13.92, one-year return -68.3%, 41.8% below its 200-day, 75.3% off its high — the most broken name in this universe on every long-horizon measure. This desk's news pull dates to August 15 and carries the Sincera acquisition announcement, which predates the move by a month; the event record holds no September entry. A volume spike that size with no receipt is worth naming and not worth interpreting.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-11 → 2026-09-18)
Prior-week figures are from the September 11 edition of this scan.
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| Strict hits went 1 → 3 — HON out, PEP, BKNG, HD in | The bin filled with consumer and rate-sensitive names; none carries an intact long trend |
| HON graduated — momentum 29.3 → 38.6, week -3.46% → +2.03%, year -0.25% → +4.25% | Last week's hit resolved upward without a cause ever surfacing for the drop |
| BKNG's monthly drawdown deepened — 30-day -18.06% → -21.17% | The deepest one-month decline on this board |
| PEP is a new arrival at the bottom — momentum 39.5 (09-11) → 25.4 | A 14-point collapse in one week, and the lowest reading here |
| AMD improved on every long window — 1Y +231.6% → +254.5%, cushion +48.8% → +57.9% | The only quality name that got stronger rather than cooler |
| Quality cohort cooled on the trailing year — LRCX +158.0% → +128.1%, ASML +111.3% → +81.0%, KLAC +88.3% → +69.1%, CAT +89.8% → +73.3% | Window-roll effects, not declines; all five still positive and above their 200-days |
| KLAC's cushion compressed — +4.5% → +1.6% | The quality name closest to losing its 200-day |
| INTU worsened for a fifth week — 1Y -51.3% → -55.1%, 200-day gap -23.5% → -26.5% | The broken flag has never been cleared and the chart keeps confirming it |
| MCD and DPZ both stayed just above the line — MCD 31.2 → 31.6, DPZ 34.8 → 31.7 | Both still under their 20-days; DPZ is now the closest miss after Lowe's |
| COST stabilised — 1Y -6.18% → -5.99%, momentum 35.5 → 35.9 | The negative-year flip flagged two weeks ago has stopped widening |
How To Read The Board
This screen finds cheap, and cheap is not the same as buyable. The strict filter is mechanical — momentum below 30 and a price under the 20-day average — and it says only that a name has fallen hard and recently. What decides whether that is a discount or damage is the pair of long-horizon columns: a name above its 200-day with a positive one-year return is in a deep pullback inside an intact trend, and a name below its 200-day with a negative year has a trend genuinely under test. All three of this week's strict hits fall in the second group, which is why the quality-times-discount ranking below puts none of them in the top tier. Where a thesis flag reads broken (Intuit), that is a standing override no price level has cleared across five weeks. Where a drop has no news receipt covering it, this scan says so explicitly rather than reaching for a reason: the pulls on file for PepsiCo, Home Depot, Booking and The Trade Desk all predate the moves described, and a stale pull is never evidence that nothing happened.
Price Table
Strict Hits — Momentum Below 30 And Price Under The 20-Day
Ranked by quality times discount: how much long trend survives, against how far the name has fallen.
| Rank | Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | 52wk Hi | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PEP | $129.75 | 25.4 | -6.3% | -4.82% | -9.0% | -7.8% | -12.5% | -24.34% | 🔴 Shallowest year of the three; still under test |
| 2 | BKNG | $167.90 | 27.4 | -11.5% | -3.46% | -21.17% | -22.88% | -9.2% | -25.38% | 🔴 Deepest monthly drawdown; 50-day still above its 200-day |
| 3 | HD | $299.98 | 28.3 | -5.8% | -2.84% | -12.87% | -28.15% | -12.3% | -28.81% | 🔴 Deepest year; confirmed downtrend |
Closest Misses (momentum 30-40, price under the 20-day)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | $192.49 | 30.7 | -4.9% | -2.2% | -12.5% | -28.06% | -17.9% | 🔴 Moving as one with HD |
| MCD | $248.24 | 31.6 | -4.1% | -1.7% | -7.18% | -17.57% | -15.4% | 🔴 Third straight week just above the line |
| DPZ | $294.20 | 31.7 | -10.8% | -5.58% | -12.58% | -31.59% | -18.3% | 🔴 Weak, deepening |
| NKE | $35.51 | 32.2 | -6.6% | -3.51% | -13.5% | -50.75% | -29.3% | 🔴 Deeply broken |
| COST | $895.31 | 35.9 | -3.2% | -1.05% | -6.45% | -5.99% | -6.8% | 🟡 Negative year has stopped widening |
| NFLXE | $71.79 | 36.3 | -9.0% | -7.25% | -10.51% | -40.56% | -16.0% | 🔴 Deeply broken |
| LULU | $98.06 | 36.4 | -10.3% | -0.92% | -17.91% | -42.24% | -34.4% | 🔴 Deeply broken |
| CEG | $254.71 | 36.4 | -8.3% | -10.55% | -7.1% | -21.07% | -13.0% | 🔴 Worst week here; newly under test |
| INTU | $303.19 | 38.0 | -10.0% | -5.72% | -16.35% | -55.08% | -26.5% | 🔴 Thesis flagged broken, fifth week worse |
| HON | $206.46 | 38.6 | -1.6% | +2.03% | -6.89% | +4.25% | -7.1% | 🟢 Graduated out of the bin |
| UBER | $70.50 | 39.3 | -5.8% | -1.63% | -9.66% | -25.55% | -6.8% | 🔴 Under test |
| SPGI | $405.32 | 39.9 | -5.0% | -1.31% | -5.0% | -20.18% | -9.0% | 🔴 Under test |
Quality Dips — Deep Pullbacks Inside Intact Trends
Positive one-year return and above the 200-day. These are the names a discount would actually be worth taking, and none of them is discounted.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | 52wk Hi | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $559.82 | 65.4 | +14.1% | +20.02% | +254.50% | +57.9% | -4.26% | 🟢 Improving on every window; no discount |
| MRVL | $244.25 | 58.0 | +7.4% | +2.94% | +229.04% | +54.2% | -25.96% | 🟢 Intact, 26% off its high |
| LRCX | $288.11 | 45.5 | -3.3% | -6.21% | +128.08% | +7.8% | -34.30% | 🟢 Best discount among intact trends |
| ASML | $1,679.28 | 48.5 | -0.6% | -4.14% | +81.00% | +11.2% | -16.03% | 🟢 Intact pullback |
| CAT | $808.99 | 47.9 | +0.5% | -0.88% | +73.25% | +3.2% | -24.64% | 🟢 Intact, cushion thinning |
| KLAC | $176.99 | 46.0 | -0.3% | -5.49% | +69.09% | +1.6% | -42.42% | 🟡 Deepest discount here, thinnest cushion |
| DE | $683.99 | 60.6 | +2.5% | +17.8% | +43.66% | +18.5% | -3.1% | 🟢 Strong month, no discount |
| GOOGL | $349.54 | 55.0 | +2.3% | +1.4% | +38.69% | +3.6% | -14.46% | 🟢 Intact |
| ANET | $199.39 | 55.8 | +2.9% | +6.94% | +35.95% | +28.5% | -7.21% | 🟢 Intact |
| TMO | $651.45 | 67.6 | +4.5% | +6.18% | +35.41% | +21.1% | -1.83% | 🟠 Near its high, no discount |
| NVDA | $222.27 | 54.2 | +1.5% | +2.16% | +26.12% | +12.0% | -6.03% | 🟢 Intact |
Broken Thesis Override
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 1Y | vs SMA200 | 52wk Hi | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | $303.19 | 38.0 | -55.08% | -26.5% | -57.0% | 🔴 Flagged broken; fifth straight week deteriorating |
The Rest
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | $665.75 | 65.8 | +8.3% | +2.73% | +21.93% | -14.67% | +6.7% | 🟡 Strong month, negative year |
| ZS | $197.31 | 63.3 | +10.1% | +19.92% | +6.89% | -32.22% | +17.2% | 🟡 Biggest week here, year still broken |
| PLTR | $177.64 | 57.0 | +1.0% | +6.22% | +1.4% | +0.38% | +17.1% | 🟢 Flat year, cushion intact |
| ISRGE | $393.33 | 61.2 | +5.8% | +6.55% | -1.1% | -9.75% | -13.6% | 🟡 Good week, long trend under test |
| CME | $276.01 | 52.7 | -0.9% | +0.17% | +3.4% | +5.92% | -1.0% | 🟡 At its 200-day |
| TSLA | $364.27 | 53.8 | +1.3% | -0.32% | +3.75% | -12.61% | -8.3% | 🟡 Under test |
| MSFT | $493.78 | 53.1 | -0.7% | -0.37% | +1.96% | -2.89% | +14.4% | 🟡 Flat year, wide cushion |
| CRM | $237.92 | 53.2 | -2.2% | -3.96% | +15.44% | -2.60% | +18.0% | 🟡 Strong month, flat year |
| NOW | $135.47 | 52.9 | -0.9% | +2.22% | +6.5% | -28.53% | +15.4% | 🟡 Negative year over a positive cushion |
| SAP | $209.45 | 50.8 | -2.3% | +1.5% | -2.85% | -22.35% | +7.3% | 🟡 Negative year over a positive cushion |
| ORCL | $147.61 | 49.6 | -1.2% | -1.78% | +2.64% | -50.24% | -11.2% | 🔴 Deeply broken year |
| WDAY | $193.87 | 53.8 | -0.3% | +4.4% | -2.29% | -16.97% | +22.1% | 🟡 Negative year, wide cushion |
| AMZN | $253.71 | 48.0 | -0.9% | -1.2% | -4.56% | +9.72% | +5.6% | 🟢 Mild pullback, intact |
| QCOM | $177.72 | 54.0 | +3.2% | -2.34% | +9.76% | +5.70% | +5.4% | 🟡 Fell 5.82% Friday on 4.6× normal volume |
| AVGO | $357.61 | 45.5 | -0.5% | -1.21% | -1.34% | +3.55% | -3.1% | 🟡 Right at its 200-day test line |
| WMT | $106.73 | 45.8 | +0.6% | -0.39% | -6.62% | +3.02% | -10.1% | 🟡 Flat year, below its 200-day |
| DIS | $102.67 | 42.9 | -4.0% | -3.64% | -3.98% | -10.61% | -1.3% | 🟡 At its 200-day |
| ADBE | $248.92 | 42.4 | -7.5% | -1.31% | -8.64% | -32.26% | -6.1% | 🔴 Under test |
| TTD | $13.92 | 43.2 | -0.6% | -2.93% | +2.81% | -68.31% | -41.8% | 🔴 Most broken name here; 8.6× normal volume Friday, no cause on file |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): None. PepsiCo at 25.4 is the closest this universe has come in the tracked window.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): PEP (25.4), BKNG (27.4), HD (28.3), LOW (30.7), MCD (31.6), DPZ (31.7), NKE (32.2), COST (35.9), NFLX (36.3), LULU (36.4), CEG (36.4), INTU (38.0), HON (38.6), UBER (39.3), SPGI (39.9). Fifteen names, the most crowded this tier has been in the tracked window, and its composition is the story: consumer staples, restaurants, retail, home improvement, travel and one power name. Not one member of this tier is above its 200-day average. That is what separates this week from the weeks when the tier held quality on sale.
Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+): The remaining 30 names, topped by TMO (67.6), META (65.8), AMD (65.4) and ZS (63.3). Nothing here is overbought above 70.
Entry Zones
Conditions, not advice. Each row says what would have to be true.
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| LRCX | Current $288.11; 200-day at $267.20, support shelf $236.03 | The best combination of discount and intact trend on the board: 34.3% off its high with a +128.1% year and a 7.8% cushion. This is the deep-pullback shape |
| KLAC | Current $176.99; 200-day at $174.29, support shelf $146.06 | Deepest discount among intact trends (42.4% off its high) but the thinnest cushion at +1.6%. The 200-day is the condition, and it is 1.5% away |
| ASML | Current $1,679.28; 200-day at $1,509.47, support shelf $1,480.58 | +81.0% year, 11.2% cushion, mild pullback. No urgency at this price |
| CAT | Current $808.99; 200-day at $784.11, support shelf $774.18 | +73.3% year with the cushion thinned to +3.2%. The 200-day is close enough to be the decider |
| AVGO | Current $357.61; 200-day at $369.10 | Three weeks within 3% of its 200-day with a +3.6% year. A reclaim of $369.10 is the condition; below it the trend stays undecided |
| BKNG | Watch $164.18 (support shelf), current $167.90 | Best of the three strict hits on structure — the 50-day is still above the 200-day — but the year is -22.9%. Only interesting if the shelf holds |
| PEP | No zone yet — cause unknown | Lowest momentum here, but the drop has no receipt covering it. Verify before treating a 25.4 reading as a discount |
| HD, LOW, MCD, DPZ, NKE, LULU, ORCL, TTD, INTU | Not zones — damage | Negative years below their 200-day averages. Cheap momentum on a broken long trend |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 🟢 | 📈 Accumulate | 34.3% off its high inside a +128.1% year; the cleanest discount-plus-trend on the board |
| KLAC | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Deepest discount here, but the 200-day cushion is down to +1.6% |
| AMD, MRVL, DE, ANET, GOOGL, NVDA | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Strong intact trends; no discount available |
| ASML, CAT | 🟢 | 📈 Accumulate | Mild pullbacks inside strong years |
| AVGO | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | The most undecided trend here; $369.10 is the line |
| BKNG | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Deepest monthly drawdown on the board with its long-run cross still positive; support shelf $164.18 |
| PEP | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | New strict hit at the lowest momentum here, with no cause on file |
| HD, LOW | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Moving as one, both roughly -28% on the year, both well below their 200-days |
| CEG | 🔴 | 🚨 Alert | Worst week here at -10.55%; year and 200-day both broke down with nothing on file |
| INTU | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | Thesis flagged broken; fifth straight week of deterioration |
| TTD | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | -68.3% on the year, 41.8% below its 200-day; Friday's 8.6× volume has no explanation on record |
| NKE, LULU, DPZ, MCD, ORCL, NFLX, ADBE | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Deeply negative years below their 200-days |
| HON | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Graduated out of the bin; the year turned positive (+4.25%) and the drop was never explained |
| COST | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Negative year stopped widening for the first time in three weeks |
| TMO | 🟠 | ⚠️ Avoid | Momentum 67.6 and 1.8% off its high — the opposite of this screen's purpose |
What To Watch Next
- Do PepsiCo, Home Depot and Booking get a cause? All three cleared the strict filter with no news receipt covering the move and no September event on record. Until one arrives, the discount is unexplained, and an unexplained discount in a name already below its 200-day is not a setup.
- KLA's 200-day at $174.29. It is 1.5% above it. Losing it moves the best-discounted quality name out of the intact column entirely.
- Broadcom's $369.10. Three weeks of hovering within 3% of the line with a flat year. It resolves.
- Home improvement as a pair. Home Depot cleared the strict line and Lowe's missed by 0.7 of a point, with near-identical years (-28.2% and -28.1%). Whether both go in next week is a cleaner read than either one alone.
- Whether the quality cohort's year keeps rolling down. Lam, ASML, KLA and Caterpillar all shed 20 to 30 points of trailing one-year return in a week on window effects rather than price. That mechanical drift continues; the thing to separate out is any week where price joins it.
Sources: bargain-bin (all 45 rows, latest bar 2026-09-18 — every price, momentum, moving-average and return figure above; strict filter applied programmatically to that file); 2026-09-11-bargain-bin (prior-week comparison values); news receipts checked and found to predate the moves described — latest (pulled 2026-08-25), .../HD/news/latest.json (2026-08-23), .../BKNG/news/latest.json (2026-08-04), .../TTD/news/latest.json (2026-08-15), .../CEG/news/latest.json (2026-09-17); research/stock-events/ checked and holds no 2026-09-18 entries and no September entries for PEP, HD, BKNG, CEG or TTD.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.