Bargain Bin Scan
Bargain Bin Scan
Six names pass the strict filter (RSI under 30 and price under the 20-day) — LOW, MCD, PEP, HD, NKE, TTD — and all six sit below their 200-day averages with negative one-year returns, so this is a list of damaged trends, not intact-trend dips. The consumer and housing large-caps (McDonald's, PepsiCo, Home Depot, Lowe's, Nike) are the story; none is a flag inside an uptrend.
Data as of the settled 2026-10-02 close, per the desk's summaries. Prior-edition comparisons are direction-only, from the September 25 edition.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Strict hits are all below their 200-days with negative years; quality-inside-trend dips are shallow |
| Strict hits (RSI under 30, under 20-day) | 6: MCD (23.8), LOW (25.4), PEP (25.5), HD (25.8), NKE (28.2), TTD (29.6) |
| Top-ranked (quality x discount) | LOW, MCD, PEP — large-cap franchises, but each below its 200-day |
| Closest misses (RSI 30-40) | BKNG (30.4), NFLX (31.1), SPGI (31.6), LULU (34.0), UBER (36.8), INTU (37.1), DPZ (39.4) |
| Quality dips (intact 200-day, under 20-day) | CRM (51.4), NOW (50.3), WDAY (47.1), QCOM (52.4), SAP (48.9) |
| Broken-thesis override | INTU — engine flags the thesis broken (-58.78% 1Y, -28.6% vs its 200-day); excluded from ranking |
| Caveat | Cheap-versus-recent-history only; no valuation, earnings or insider data in this source. Quality is judged from long-trend position and the engine's thesis flag, not fundamentals |
| Key insight | The oversold pocket is consumer-discretionary and consumer-staples large-caps plus housing — a sector cluster, which usually means a shared headwind rather than six separate stories (no cause is asserted here) |
What's Going On
The oversold pocket is a consumer and housing cluster. MCD closed $231.89 at RSI 23.8, -20.0% against its 200-day and -32.15% from its high. Home Depot (RSI 25.8) and Lowe's (25.4) both sit more than 16% under their 200-days with negative years, PepsiCo at 25.5, Nike at 28.2. Five of the six lines (MCD, PEP, HD, LOW, NKE) have 30-day declines of roughly 9.5% to 11.5%, which points to a group move; this page states no cause.
Trade Desk is the outlier. TTD closed $11.94, RSI 29.6, -47.2% against its 200-day, 1Y -76.53%, -78.83% from its high. That is structural damage, not a pullback.
Quality dips are shallow. CRM (51.4), NOW (50.3), WDAY (47.1), QCOM (52.4), SAP (48.9) sit under their 20-day but above their 200-days; none is near oversold, so they are watch-list items rather than bargains.
Just outside the filter. BKNG (30.4), NFLX (31.1) and SPGI (31.6) are within a point or two of 30; LULU (34.0) and UBER (36.8) are lower on trend quality.
The strong side of the board is the opposite story. AMD (+69.2% vs its 200-day), the semiconductor equipment names (LRCX, KLAC) and MRVL are extended, not cheap — the bargain list and the leadership list share almost no names.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-25 → 2026-10-02)
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| Strict-hit list is now a consumer/housing cluster | Includes HD, LOW, PEP, MCD and NKE at RSI under 30 |
| INTU no longer a strict hit — RSI now 37.1 | Last edition it was oversold; still thesis-flagged broken |
| NFLX at RSI 31.1 | Hovering just above the filter |
| Semiconductor and software leaders extended | Not bargain candidates |
How To Read The Board
This board screens for momentum under 30 and price under the 20-day average, then ranks by a rough quality-times-discount judgment: names whose long trend is intact or whose thesis is flagged intact outrank names that are simply cheap. It is raw screen evidence. A low RSI is not a buy; the filter surfaces candidates for research, and outside verification of the business is required before acting.
Price Table
Strict Hits — Momentum Below 30 And Price Under The 20-Day (ranked)
| Rank | Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | From 52wk High | Quality read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LOW | $180.80 | 25.4 | -6.1% | -9.53% | -26.90% | -21.9% | -38.31% | Thesis flagged intact, but below its 200-day with a negative year |
| 2 | MCD | $231.89 | 23.8 | -5.3% | -11.14% | -22.67% | -20.0% | -32.15% | Large-cap, deepest momentum reading; negative year |
| 3 | PEP | $125.89 | 25.5 | -4.6% | -10.41% | -11.54% | -14.5% | -26.59% | Large-cap defensive, steady slide; below 200-day |
| 4 | HD | $282.85 | 25.8 | -5.6% | -11.20% | -28.39% | -16.6% | -28.87% | Large-cap, below 200-day, negative year |
| 5 | NKE | $33.87 | 28.2 | -6.5% | -11.43% | -54.58% | -30.5% | -56.00% | Year deeply negative; no thesis flag |
| 6 | TTD | $11.94 | 29.6 | -11.2% | -17.94% | -76.53% | -47.2% | -78.83% | Heavily damaged: far below 200-day, no thesis flag |
Closest Misses (momentum 30-40, price under the 20-day)
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | $159.02 | 30.4 | $168.51 | -5.6% | -3.01% | -20.33% | -26.71% | -12.9% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| NFLXE | $67.06 | 31.1 | $73.50 | -8.8% | -5.75% | -18.94% | -42.31% | -20.2% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| SPGI | $386.27 | 31.6 | $406.84 | -5.1% | -4.22% | -10.53% | -18.96% | -12.3% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| LULU | $94.46 | 34.0 | $99.28 | -4.9% | -6.75% | -21.33% | -46.99% | -34.8% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| UBER | $68.11 | 36.8 | $70.58 | -3.5% | -2.17% | -10.91% | -29.50% | -8.9% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| INTU | $281.08 | 37.1 | $300.80 | -6.6% | +1.92% | -18.04% | -58.78% | -28.6% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| DPZ | $297.62 | 39.4 | $305.78 | -2.7% | +1.88% | -14.15% | -30.99% | -15.9% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
Quality Dips — Under The 20-Day, Above The 200-Day
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | $234.69 | 51.4 | $241.13 | -2.7% | +0.29% | -8.66% | -1.75% | +17.0% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| NOW | $134.38 | 50.3 | $136.23 | -1.4% | -0.91% | -1.71% | -26.17% | +16.1% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| WDAY | $186.14 | 47.1 | $189.94 | -2.0% | -1.75% | -7.33% | -19.80% | +18.4% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| QCOM | $184.87 | 52.4 | $185.29 | -0.2% | -8.47% | +8.77% | +9.49% | +9.2% | 🟢 Intact |
| SAP | $208.57 | 48.9 | $210.83 | -1.1% | -1.00% | -0.53% | -23.29% | +7.8% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
Broken Thesis Override
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTU | $281.08 | 37.1 | $300.80 | -6.6% | +1.92% | -18.04% | -58.78% | -28.6% | ❌ Thesis flagged broken |
The Rest
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | $517.53 | 62.6 | $501.67 | +3.2% | +0.26% | +4.17% | +0.35% | +19.6% | 🟢 Intact |
| GOOGL | $343.50 | 50.0 | $342.62 | +0.3% | -0.12% | +1.89% | +39.81% | +1.4% | 🟢 Intact |
| AMZN | $251.52 | 48.6 | $251.64 | +0.0% | +0.74% | -1.36% | +13.09% | +4.2% | 🟢 Intact |
| NVDA | $233.95 | 62.9 | $223.79 | +4.5% | +3.95% | +4.25% | +23.86% | +16.6% | 🟢 Intact |
| META | $728.08 | 61.5 | $695.92 | +4.6% | -3.14% | +22.81% | +0.14% | +15.9% | 🟢 Intact |
| TSLA | $370.59 | 55.0 | $364.87 | +1.6% | -0.41% | +3.80% | -15.00% | -5.7% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| ADBE | $237.69 | 41.0 | $247.05 | -3.8% | +0.94% | -15.05% | -32.37% | -8.5% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| TMO | $654.80 | 56.6 | $646.26 | +1.3% | -2.99% | +7.60% | +24.73% | +20.7% | 🟢 Intact |
| ISRGE | $391.95 | 51.2 | $387.38 | +1.2% | -3.27% | +5.40% | -11.53% | -12.4% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| COST | $920.65 | 51.4 | $907.71 | +1.4% | -0.23% | -0.84% | +0.42% | -4.2% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive |
| WMT | $104.26 | 40.1 | $107.09 | -2.6% | -3.45% | -1.72% | +2.52% | -11.9% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive |
| AVGO | $355.14 | 47.6 | $354.10 | +0.3% | +0.66% | -3.29% | +5.02% | -3.4% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive |
| AMD | $633.91 | 70.1 | $566.49 | +11.9% | +0.52% | +38.69% | +273.48% | +69.2% | 🟢 Intact, extended |
| ANET | $207.35 | 60.2 | $199.85 | +3.8% | +0.39% | +11.42% | +43.53% | +30.5% | 🟢 Intact |
| MRVL | $272.29 | 65.0 | $246.18 | +10.6% | +3.95% | +31.87% | +215.88% | +63.1% | 🟢 Intact |
| KLAC | $206.89 | 67.2 | $184.44 | +12.2% | +10.09% | +20.10% | +81.59% | +16.4% | 🟢 Intact |
| LRCX | $347.49 | 67.6 | $305.42 | +13.8% | +10.24% | +20.52% | +136.40% | +26.3% | 🟢 Intact |
| ASML | $1,867.31 | 64.8 | $1,721.85 | +8.4% | +7.07% | +11.00% | +81.26% | +21.0% | 🟢 Intact |
| DIS | $102.19 | 42.4 | $104.98 | -2.7% | -3.73% | -5.36% | -8.87% | -1.6% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| ZS | $196.60 | 54.6 | $191.49 | +2.7% | +1.84% | +13.82% | -36.08% | +18.1% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| CEG | $257.49 | 42.1 | $268.70 | -4.2% | -2.20% | -11.22% | -27.97% | -10.5% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| CME | $263.14 | 41.1 | $271.13 | -2.9% | -0.51% | -5.27% | -0.86% | -5.5% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| CAT | $845.42 | 58.8 | $811.29 | +4.2% | +2.90% | +6.71% | +72.33% | +6.3% | 🟢 Intact |
| DE | $687.00 | 56.0 | $684.42 | +0.4% | -0.50% | -1.63% | +48.76% | +16.9% | 🟢 Intact |
| HON | $213.99 | 52.7 | $208.42 | +2.7% | +0.68% | +3.84% | +7.64% | -4.1% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive |
| ORCL | $142.30 | 48.3 | $145.98 | -2.5% | +3.79% | -2.37% | -50.72% | -12.6% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| PLTR | $188.75 | 61.2 | $180.19 | +4.8% | -0.49% | +11.38% | +0.91% | +24.1% | 🟢 Intact |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): MCD (23.8).
Oversold (RSI 25-40): LOW (25.4), PEP (25.5), HD (25.8), NKE (28.2), TTD (29.6), BKNG (30.4), NFLX (31.1), SPGI (31.6), LULU (34.0), UBER (36.8), INTU (37.1), DPZ (39.4).
Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+): the remaining names; highest momentum: AMD (70.1), KLAC (67.2), LRCX (67.6).
Entry Zones
Conditions, not advice.
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| LOW | Current $180.80; 200-day $231.61, support shelf n/a | Thesis flagged intact; reclaiming the 200-day is the condition |
| MCD | Current $231.89; 200-day $289.81, support shelf n/a | Most oversold; needs a stabilizing close first |
| PEP | Current $125.89; 200-day $147.26 | Steady slide; no repair yet |
| HD | Current $282.85; 200-day $339.05 | Housing-linked, negative year |
| NKE | Current $33.87; 200-day $48.72 | Deeply negative year; falling-knife risk |
| TTD | Current $11.94 | Structurally damaged; no zone |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Intact-flag, but below 200-day |
| MCD, PEP, HD | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Oversold large-caps below 200-days; wait for repair |
| NKE, TTD | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | Years deeply negative, structure damaged |
| BKNG, NFLX, SPGI | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Just above the filter |
| INTU | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | Thesis flagged broken |
| CRM, NOW, WDAY | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Shallow dips above 200-days |
What To Watch Next
Sources
- Tape data: pre-computed desk summary, as of the 2026-10-02 close (bargain-bin).
Desk price summaries for the bargain-bin universe (45 rows, latest bar 2026-10-02); September 25 edition of this scan.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.