Bargain Bin

Scan

Bargain Bin

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 56 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-07-bargain-bin.md

2026-07-11 Bargain-Bin Scan — The Bin Is Nearly Empty, and ORCL Just Flipped From Basing To Still-Collapsing

Zero names in this universe meet the strict screen (RSI < 30 AND price below its 20-day average) — the deepest RSI print in the whole 68-ticker set is ORCL at 31.3. That's the headline: most of the prior scan's oversold names have bounced out of the bin entirely (META, WMT, ADBE, PYPL, LULU, NKE all posted meaningful RSI recoveries). The one name that got worse, not better, is ORCL — its RSI barely moved (30.5→31.3) but its 30-day change deepened to -23.3%, which flips it from last scan's "earliest possible bounce" read into this scan's "still collapsing" bucket. NFLX is the other name still actively deteriorating (RSI 43.7→37.5, -42.6% from its 52-week high). Per desk doctrine, this remains a falling-knife screen, not a buy list.

Data as-of 2026-07-10 close. Source: summaries/bargain-bin.json, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vsSma20 < 0, then widened to RSI < 45 (the closest practical cluster, since the strict filter returned nothing) — ranked by thesis quality × discount depth. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-bargain-bin (2026-07-06 close).


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Strict oversold screen (RSI<30) returns zero names — the bin has thinned as prior candidates bounced
Deepest RSI ORCL (31.3, downtrend, -59.3% from 52wk high) — but 30D deepened to -23.3%, a fresh deterioration not a bounce
Still collapsing ORCL, NFLX (RSI 37.5, -42.6% from high, collapse regime, no stabilization)
Broken thesis — avoid regardless of price INTU (RSI 45.2, thesisState explicitly `broken`, -66.4% from high)
Bounced out of the bin META (RSI 54.5→66.4), WMT (34.0→44.2), ADBE (49.6→53.7), PYPL (58.1→61.3), LULU (45.9→51.4), NKE (50.3→55.6)
Key insight The bin thinning is itself informative — most names that looked cheap last scan are recovering; ORCL is the exception, and it's getting worse, not basing

What's Going On

The strict bargain-bin filter — RSI below 30 and price below its 20-day average — returns nothing this cycle across all 68 tracked names. The prior scan's two closest names to that threshold, ORCL (RSI 30.5) and WMT (RSI 34.0), have diverged hard: WMT recovered to RSI 44.2 as its price stabilized (-15.7% from high, up from -18.1%), while ORCL barely moved on RSI (30.5→31.3) even though its 30-day change deepened from a flat read to -23.3% — a real fresh leg down, not a plateau. That reclassifies ORCL from last scan's "earliest possible bounce" candidate into this scan's "still collapsing" bucket. NFLX is the other name actively worsening: RSI cooled from 43.7 to 37.5 and its distance from its 52-week high widened to -42.6%, with no basing signal in the data.

Everywhere else in the universe, the story is recovery, not further damage. META rallied hard (RSI 54.5→66.4, 7D +14.0%, 30D +17.8%) and has effectively bounced out of "bargain" territory altogether. ADBE, PYPL, LULU, and NKE all posted genuine RSI improvements alongside better 30-day reads — the basing pattern the desk wants to see before any name-level follow-up. INTU carries an explicit thesis: broken flag in the data (RSI 45.2, -66.4% from its 52-week high) — per desk doctrine this stays an avoid regardless of how cheap it screens; a bounce in price (vsSma20 +2.3%) does not override a broken thesis.


What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-07 → 2026-07-11)

Change Read
ORCL flipped from "basing" to "still collapsing" — RSI roughly flat (30.5→31.3) but 30D deepened to -23.3% Last scan's "earliest possible bounce" call did not play out; this is a fresh deterioration, not a plateau
NFLX continues to deepen — RSI 43.7→37.5, -41.3%→-42.6% from 52wk high No stabilization signal two scans running
WMT recovered out of deep-oversold — RSI 34.0→44.2, high-distance improved -18.1%→-15.7% Genuine stabilization, no longer the extreme it was
META rallied out of the bin — RSI 54.5→66.4, 7D +14.0%, 30D +17.8% No longer a bargain-bin candidate; would drop off the screen next cycle
ADBE/PYPL/LULU/NKE all improved RSI with firmer 30-day reads Broad basing across the SaaS/consumer names flagged as "watch" last scan
PLTR's 7D bounce faded — was +9.4% 7D last scan, now -3.1% 7D The sharpest bounce in the prior scan gave back its gains; regime label also shifted from `collapse` to `downtrend`
INTU's broken-thesis flag persists despite a small price bounce (vsSma20 now +2.3%, was -avoid signal) Avoid stands — a bounce off deep oversold doesn't clear a broken-thesis flag

How To Read The Board

This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime labels (collapse/downtrend/pullback/basing) describe the chart, not a recommendation — a name in collapse with a flat or improving RSI is not the same setup as a name in collapse whose RSI and 30-day change are both deteriorating (ORCL, NFLX this cycle). thesis: broken is a hard override: no price level makes a broken-thesis name attractive, and it should be avoided regardless of discount. Per desk doctrine, this bucket exists to separate names that are basing (RSI turning, price stabilizing) from names still actively collapsing — the RSI number alone doesn't answer that question; the 30-day trend direction does.


Price Table

Still Collapsing — No Stabilization Signal

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Thesis Note
ORCL $140.64 31.3 -1.3% -23.3% -59.3% downtrend intact Deepest RSI in the bin, but 30D deteriorated sharply — reclassified from "basing" last scan
NFLX $73.37 37.5 -3.5% -9.7% -42.6% collapse unrated Continued deepening, no bounce attempt
SAP $157.86 44.9 -0.9% -3.5% -49.0% downtrend unrated Flat and weak, unchanged from last scan
INTU $274.96 45.2 +3.3% -0.3% -66.4% collapse broken Explicit broken-thesis flag — avoid regardless of the bounce

Approaching Oversold — Watch, Not Yet a Buy

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Regime Note
COST $916.25 36.3 -2.9% -6.1% -16.4% basing Mega-cap, mild pullback, goldenCross intact
DIS $95.62 40.0 -1.6% -4.0% -22.5% basing Flat, no clear direction
PEP $137.38 40.8 -2.9% -4.4% -19.9% pullback Unremarkable
LOW $211.63 41.1 -3.7% -4.3% -27.8% downtrend thesisState intact
WMT $113.90 44.2 +3.1% -5.5% -15.7% pullback Recovered from RSI 34.0 last scan
CME $240.27 44.4 +2.9% -8.4% -27.0% pullback 30D worsened slightly since last scan
ISRG $406.78 45.0 -4.0% -1.5% -32.6% collapse thesisState intact — cross-ref insider-scan/monster-scan
CEG $251.38 45.1 +3.3% +1.9% -39.1% collapse 30D turned positive, earliest bounce sign
MRVL $235.81 45.2 -8.4% -16.0% -28.5% pullback Still +86.2% vs SMA200 — cooling off a monster run, not a bargain in the traditional sense
DPZ $299.46 45.3 -1.0% -3.5% -39.6% collapse Slightly worse than last scan
QCOM $189.16 45.6 +1.5% -6.8% -27.2% pullback Unremarkable
HON $226.42 46.1 +0.4% -1.5% -13.0% basing goldenCross intact
DE $586.86 46.4 -5.9% +3.5% -13.0% basing goldenCross intact
MCD $274.60 47.1 +0.1% -3.6% -19.7% pullback Unremarkable
GOOGL $357.18 47.2 -1.1% -0.2% -12.6% pullback thesisState intact
CRM $163.32 47.5 -0.3% -1.9% -40.4% downtrend 30D improved from -9.0% last scan
MSFT $385.10 47.9 +0.3% -1.3% -30.7% downtrend thesisState intact
PLTR $126.79 48.4 -3.1% -3.3% -38.9% downtrend Prior 7D bounce (+9.4%) fully reversed

Recovered Out Of The Bin (for reference — no longer oversold)

Ticker Price RSI 7D 30D vs 52wk High Note
META $669.21 66.4 +14.0% +17.8% -16.0% Best recovery in the group; effectively exits bargain-bin status
PYPL $46.32 61.3 +4.7% +12.3% -41.7% Clean, continued basing
ADBE $223.64 53.7 +4.6% +2.2% -40.6% 30D flipped positive since last scan
LULU $119.26 51.4 +4.7% -2.1% -49.5% High-distance improved
NKE $44.37 55.6 +5.4% -3.5% -44.7% RSI improved, 30D mixed
WDAY $138.95 58.2 +6.3% +6.5% -44.4% Continues basing
ZS $139.27 50.3 -7.4% +10.4% -58.7% Cooled from RSI 61.4 but still positive 30D

(40 remaining tracked names — AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, NOW, SNOW, DDOG, NET, TMO, LLY, ABBV, UNH, JNJ, SBUX, AVGO, AMD, ANET, KLAC, LRCX, ASML, V, MA, XYZ, PANW, CRWD, OKTA, HD, GE, KO, JPM, GS, BRK-B, SPGI, CAT, UPS, RTX, BKNG, ABNB, UBER, TTD — all sit at RSI 49-65.5, healthy and not oversold; omitted from a bargain-bin screen by design.)

Tier Analysis

Still collapsing (deteriorating, not basing)ORCL and NFLX. ORCL is the more important flag: it looked like a bounce candidate last scan (RSI 30.5, +2.5% same-day) but the 30-day trend has since turned sharply negative (-23.3%) with RSI barely improved — this is the pattern of a knife still falling, not one that's found a floor.

Broken thesis — hard avoidINTU. The data carries an explicit thesis: broken tag; no bounce in price changes that.

Approaching / unresolved — the RSI-45-to-50 cluster (COST, DIS, PEP, LOW, WMT, CME, ISRG, CEG, MRVL, DPZ, QCOM, HON, DE, MCD, GOOGL, CRM, MSFT, PLTR) is a mix of genuine early stabilization (WMT, CEG, DE, HON — all goldenCross-intact or improving 30D) and names still net negative on both RSI and price trend. None of these confirm a base yet.

Recovered — no longer bargain-bin materialMETA, PYPL, ADBE, LULU, NKE, WDAY, ZS all posted real RSI and/or 30-day improvements since the last scan. This is the most important structural read this cycle: the bin thinned because names bounced, not because the universe changed.


Entry Zones

Stock Price Zone RSI vs 52wk High Setup
ORCL $140.64 Wait for a 30D trend reversal, not just RSI 31.3 -59.3% Most oversold name tracked, but deteriorating — do not treat current RSI as a bounce signal until 30D turns
WMT $113.90 Watch for continued basing 44.2 -15.7% Cleanest recovery from deep-oversold in the group; not yet a buy, but the trend direction is right
CEG $251.38 Watch for a golden-cross flip 45.1 -39.1% Earliest positive 30D turn in the mid-tier cluster; still `collapse` regime
INTU $274.96 Avoid 45.2 -66.4% Broken thesis flag overrides any price-based entry logic

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH (contrarian probe only) ORCL Deepest RSI tracked but 30D deteriorating — confirm a trend reversal before any size
🔍 WATCH (early basing) WMT, CEG, DE, HON, ADBE, PYPL, LULU, NKE, WDAY, ZS RSI and/or 30D improving since last scan; still below the golden-cross confirmation the desk wants
⚠️ AVOID / STILL COLLAPSING NFLX, SAP No stabilization signal; RSI and price trend both weak or worsening
❌ AVOID — BROKEN THESIS INTU Explicit broken-thesis flag; do not buy the drawdown regardless of price
🔒 NO ACTION — RECOVERED META Best 7D/30D print in the group; already out of bargain territory, not this screen's concern anymore

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
ORCL's 30D trend If it keeps deepening past -23%, this stops being a "deepest oversold" story and becomes a genuine breakdown worth a name-level look
NFLX stabilization Two scans running with no bounce signal — watch for either a basing print or a fresh leg down
INTU's broken-thesis flag Confirm whether this gets lifted on the next fundamentals refresh, or whether the bounce is purely technical noise
CEG's 30D flip to positive Earliest stabilization sign in the mid-tier cluster; a golden-cross confirmation next scan would be the trigger to re-rate
Bin thinning trend If most names keep bouncing out (as META/PYPL/ADBE did this cycle), the desk should ask whether "bargain bin" as currently scoped still has enough candidates to be a useful standing scan
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.