Bargain Bin
Bargain Bin
2026-07-11 Bargain-Bin Scan — The Bin Is Nearly Empty, and ORCL Just Flipped From Basing To Still-Collapsing
Zero names in this universe meet the strict screen (RSI < 30 AND price below its 20-day average) — the deepest RSI print in the whole 68-ticker set is ORCL at 31.3. That's the headline: most of the prior scan's oversold names have bounced out of the bin entirely (META, WMT, ADBE, PYPL, LULU, NKE all posted meaningful RSI recoveries). The one name that got worse, not better, is ORCL — its RSI barely moved (30.5→31.3) but its 30-day change deepened to -23.3%, which flips it from last scan's "earliest possible bounce" read into this scan's "still collapsing" bucket. NFLX is the other name still actively deteriorating (RSI 43.7→37.5, -42.6% from its 52-week high). Per desk doctrine, this remains a falling-knife screen, not a buy list.
Data as-of 2026-07-10 close. Source: summaries/bargain-bin.json, filtered for RSI < 30 AND vsSma20 < 0, then widened to RSI < 45 (the closest practical cluster, since the strict filter returned nothing) — ranked by thesis quality × discount depth. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-bargain-bin (2026-07-06 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Strict oversold screen (RSI<30) returns zero names — the bin has thinned as prior candidates bounced |
| Deepest RSI | ORCL (31.3, downtrend, -59.3% from 52wk high) — but 30D deepened to -23.3%, a fresh deterioration not a bounce |
| Still collapsing | ORCL, NFLX (RSI 37.5, -42.6% from high, collapse regime, no stabilization) |
| Broken thesis — avoid regardless of price | INTU (RSI 45.2, thesisState explicitly `broken`, -66.4% from high) |
| Bounced out of the bin | META (RSI 54.5→66.4), WMT (34.0→44.2), ADBE (49.6→53.7), PYPL (58.1→61.3), LULU (45.9→51.4), NKE (50.3→55.6) |
| Key insight | The bin thinning is itself informative — most names that looked cheap last scan are recovering; ORCL is the exception, and it's getting worse, not basing |
What's Going On
The strict bargain-bin filter — RSI below 30 and price below its 20-day average — returns nothing this cycle across all 68 tracked names. The prior scan's two closest names to that threshold, ORCL (RSI 30.5) and WMT (RSI 34.0), have diverged hard: WMT recovered to RSI 44.2 as its price stabilized (-15.7% from high, up from -18.1%), while ORCL barely moved on RSI (30.5→31.3) even though its 30-day change deepened from a flat read to -23.3% — a real fresh leg down, not a plateau. That reclassifies ORCL from last scan's "earliest possible bounce" candidate into this scan's "still collapsing" bucket. NFLX is the other name actively worsening: RSI cooled from 43.7 to 37.5 and its distance from its 52-week high widened to -42.6%, with no basing signal in the data.
Everywhere else in the universe, the story is recovery, not further damage. META rallied hard (RSI 54.5→66.4, 7D +14.0%, 30D +17.8%) and has effectively bounced out of "bargain" territory altogether. ADBE, PYPL, LULU, and NKE all posted genuine RSI improvements alongside better 30-day reads — the basing pattern the desk wants to see before any name-level follow-up. INTU carries an explicit thesis: broken flag in the data (RSI 45.2, -66.4% from its 52-week high) — per desk doctrine this stays an avoid regardless of how cheap it screens; a bounce in price (vsSma20 +2.3%) does not override a broken thesis.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-07 → 2026-07-11)
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| ORCL flipped from "basing" to "still collapsing" — RSI roughly flat (30.5→31.3) but 30D deepened to -23.3% | Last scan's "earliest possible bounce" call did not play out; this is a fresh deterioration, not a plateau |
| NFLX continues to deepen — RSI 43.7→37.5, -41.3%→-42.6% from 52wk high | No stabilization signal two scans running |
| WMT recovered out of deep-oversold — RSI 34.0→44.2, high-distance improved -18.1%→-15.7% | Genuine stabilization, no longer the extreme it was |
| META rallied out of the bin — RSI 54.5→66.4, 7D +14.0%, 30D +17.8% | No longer a bargain-bin candidate; would drop off the screen next cycle |
| ADBE/PYPL/LULU/NKE all improved RSI with firmer 30-day reads | Broad basing across the SaaS/consumer names flagged as "watch" last scan |
| PLTR's 7D bounce faded — was +9.4% 7D last scan, now -3.1% 7D | The sharpest bounce in the prior scan gave back its gains; regime label also shifted from `collapse` to `downtrend` |
| INTU's broken-thesis flag persists despite a small price bounce (vsSma20 now +2.3%, was -avoid signal) | Avoid stands — a bounce off deep oversold doesn't clear a broken-thesis flag |
How To Read The Board
This bucket screens for cheap, not for buyable. regime labels (collapse/downtrend/pullback/basing) describe the chart, not a recommendation — a name in collapse with a flat or improving RSI is not the same setup as a name in collapse whose RSI and 30-day change are both deteriorating (ORCL, NFLX this cycle). thesis: broken is a hard override: no price level makes a broken-thesis name attractive, and it should be avoided regardless of discount. Per desk doctrine, this bucket exists to separate names that are basing (RSI turning, price stabilizing) from names still actively collapsing — the RSI number alone doesn't answer that question; the 30-day trend direction does.
Price Table
Still Collapsing — No Stabilization Signal
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Thesis | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | $140.64 | 31.3 | -1.3% | -23.3% | -59.3% | downtrend | intact | Deepest RSI in the bin, but 30D deteriorated sharply — reclassified from "basing" last scan |
| NFLX | $73.37 | 37.5 | -3.5% | -9.7% | -42.6% | collapse | unrated | Continued deepening, no bounce attempt |
| SAP | $157.86 | 44.9 | -0.9% | -3.5% | -49.0% | downtrend | unrated | Flat and weak, unchanged from last scan |
| INTU | $274.96 | 45.2 | +3.3% | -0.3% | -66.4% | collapse | broken | Explicit broken-thesis flag — avoid regardless of the bounce |
Approaching Oversold — Watch, Not Yet a Buy
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Regime | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | $916.25 | 36.3 | -2.9% | -6.1% | -16.4% | basing | Mega-cap, mild pullback, goldenCross intact |
| DIS | $95.62 | 40.0 | -1.6% | -4.0% | -22.5% | basing | Flat, no clear direction |
| PEP | $137.38 | 40.8 | -2.9% | -4.4% | -19.9% | pullback | Unremarkable |
| LOW | $211.63 | 41.1 | -3.7% | -4.3% | -27.8% | downtrend | thesisState intact |
| WMT | $113.90 | 44.2 | +3.1% | -5.5% | -15.7% | pullback | Recovered from RSI 34.0 last scan |
| CME | $240.27 | 44.4 | +2.9% | -8.4% | -27.0% | pullback | 30D worsened slightly since last scan |
| ISRG | $406.78 | 45.0 | -4.0% | -1.5% | -32.6% | collapse | thesisState intact — cross-ref insider-scan/monster-scan |
| CEG | $251.38 | 45.1 | +3.3% | +1.9% | -39.1% | collapse | 30D turned positive, earliest bounce sign |
| MRVL | $235.81 | 45.2 | -8.4% | -16.0% | -28.5% | pullback | Still +86.2% vs SMA200 — cooling off a monster run, not a bargain in the traditional sense |
| DPZ | $299.46 | 45.3 | -1.0% | -3.5% | -39.6% | collapse | Slightly worse than last scan |
| QCOM | $189.16 | 45.6 | +1.5% | -6.8% | -27.2% | pullback | Unremarkable |
| HON | $226.42 | 46.1 | +0.4% | -1.5% | -13.0% | basing | goldenCross intact |
| DE | $586.86 | 46.4 | -5.9% | +3.5% | -13.0% | basing | goldenCross intact |
| MCD | $274.60 | 47.1 | +0.1% | -3.6% | -19.7% | pullback | Unremarkable |
| GOOGL | $357.18 | 47.2 | -1.1% | -0.2% | -12.6% | pullback | thesisState intact |
| CRM | $163.32 | 47.5 | -0.3% | -1.9% | -40.4% | downtrend | 30D improved from -9.0% last scan |
| MSFT | $385.10 | 47.9 | +0.3% | -1.3% | -30.7% | downtrend | thesisState intact |
| PLTR | $126.79 | 48.4 | -3.1% | -3.3% | -38.9% | downtrend | Prior 7D bounce (+9.4%) fully reversed |
Recovered Out Of The Bin (for reference — no longer oversold)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs 52wk High | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | $669.21 | 66.4 | +14.0% | +17.8% | -16.0% | Best recovery in the group; effectively exits bargain-bin status |
| PYPL | $46.32 | 61.3 | +4.7% | +12.3% | -41.7% | Clean, continued basing |
| ADBE | $223.64 | 53.7 | +4.6% | +2.2% | -40.6% | 30D flipped positive since last scan |
| LULU | $119.26 | 51.4 | +4.7% | -2.1% | -49.5% | High-distance improved |
| NKE | $44.37 | 55.6 | +5.4% | -3.5% | -44.7% | RSI improved, 30D mixed |
| WDAY | $138.95 | 58.2 | +6.3% | +6.5% | -44.4% | Continues basing |
| ZS | $139.27 | 50.3 | -7.4% | +10.4% | -58.7% | Cooled from RSI 61.4 but still positive 30D |
(40 remaining tracked names — AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, NOW, SNOW, DDOG, NET, TMO, LLY, ABBV, UNH, JNJ, SBUX, AVGO, AMD, ANET, KLAC, LRCX, ASML, V, MA, XYZ, PANW, CRWD, OKTA, HD, GE, KO, JPM, GS, BRK-B, SPGI, CAT, UPS, RTX, BKNG, ABNB, UBER, TTD — all sit at RSI 49-65.5, healthy and not oversold; omitted from a bargain-bin screen by design.)
Tier Analysis
Still collapsing (deteriorating, not basing) — ORCL and NFLX. ORCL is the more important flag: it looked like a bounce candidate last scan (RSI 30.5, +2.5% same-day) but the 30-day trend has since turned sharply negative (-23.3%) with RSI barely improved — this is the pattern of a knife still falling, not one that's found a floor.
Broken thesis — hard avoid — INTU. The data carries an explicit thesis: broken tag; no bounce in price changes that.
Approaching / unresolved — the RSI-45-to-50 cluster (COST, DIS, PEP, LOW, WMT, CME, ISRG, CEG, MRVL, DPZ, QCOM, HON, DE, MCD, GOOGL, CRM, MSFT, PLTR) is a mix of genuine early stabilization (WMT, CEG, DE, HON — all goldenCross-intact or improving 30D) and names still net negative on both RSI and price trend. None of these confirm a base yet.
Recovered — no longer bargain-bin material — META, PYPL, ADBE, LULU, NKE, WDAY, ZS all posted real RSI and/or 30-day improvements since the last scan. This is the most important structural read this cycle: the bin thinned because names bounced, not because the universe changed.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | vs 52wk High | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | $140.64 | Wait for a 30D trend reversal, not just RSI | 31.3 | -59.3% | Most oversold name tracked, but deteriorating — do not treat current RSI as a bounce signal until 30D turns |
| WMT | $113.90 | Watch for continued basing | 44.2 | -15.7% | Cleanest recovery from deep-oversold in the group; not yet a buy, but the trend direction is right |
| CEG | $251.38 | Watch for a golden-cross flip | 45.1 | -39.1% | Earliest positive 30D turn in the mid-tier cluster; still `collapse` regime |
| INTU | $274.96 | Avoid | 45.2 | -66.4% | Broken thesis flag overrides any price-based entry logic |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔍 WATCH (contrarian probe only) | ORCL | Deepest RSI tracked but 30D deteriorating — confirm a trend reversal before any size |
| 🔍 WATCH (early basing) | WMT, CEG, DE, HON, ADBE, PYPL, LULU, NKE, WDAY, ZS | RSI and/or 30D improving since last scan; still below the golden-cross confirmation the desk wants |
| ⚠️ AVOID / STILL COLLAPSING | NFLX, SAP | No stabilization signal; RSI and price trend both weak or worsening |
| ❌ AVOID — BROKEN THESIS | INTU | Explicit broken-thesis flag; do not buy the drawdown regardless of price |
| 🔒 NO ACTION — RECOVERED | META | Best 7D/30D print in the group; already out of bargain territory, not this screen's concern anymore |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| ORCL's 30D trend | If it keeps deepening past -23%, this stops being a "deepest oversold" story and becomes a genuine breakdown worth a name-level look |
| NFLX stabilization | Two scans running with no bounce signal — watch for either a basing print or a fresh leg down |
| INTU's broken-thesis flag | Confirm whether this gets lifted on the next fundamentals refresh, or whether the bounce is purely technical noise |
| CEG's 30D flip to positive | Earliest stabilization sign in the mid-tier cluster; a golden-cross confirmation next scan would be the trigger to re-rate |
| Bin thinning trend | If most names keep bouncing out (as META/PYPL/ADBE did this cycle), the desk should ask whether "bargain bin" as currently scoped still has enough candidates to be a useful standing scan |
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.