Memory/Semis

Update

Memory/Semis

HBM thesis played out. MU ran, CRSR is falling knife.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 Missed MU, avoid CRSR
Key insight MU +45% = missed. CRSR -14% = falling knife

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
⚠️ AVOID MU +45% HBM run, too late
❌ DON'T BUY CRSR Falling knife, no floor

Legend

  • RSI ↓ = Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity
  • RSI ↑ = Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback
  • 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)

Data

Stock Price 1D 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status Action
MU $437.82 +4% +7% +40% +87% -4% 76↑ 🔴 Ran ⚠️ Avoid
CRSR $5.11 - - -14% - - - 🔴 Falling ❌ Don't Buy

Analysis

MU - Micron

Thesis: HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) for AI. Memory supplier to NVIDIA.

  • +45% in 30 days
  • HBM thesis played out perfectly
  • Entry was at $80, not $400

Verdict: ⚠️ FOMO trap - thesis right, timing wrong

CRSR - Corsair Gaming

Thesis: Gaming peripherals. "Cheap" value trap.

  • -14% and still falling
  • No clear floor
  • "Cheap" isn't a thesis

Verdict: ❌ Avoid - falling knife

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
MU HBM thesis was right But +45% = missed the move
CRSR is value trap "Cheap" without catalyst = knife
Memory is cyclical Need to catch cycle early

Mistakes

Mistake Lesson
Waited too long on MU Had HBM thesis, didn't act
Almost bought CRSR "Cheap" tempted me, glad I passed

Open Questions

  • When does MU pull back to entry?
  • Is CRSR ever a buy?
  • What's next memory cycle catalyst?

Next Actions

  • Set MU alert at $300 (25% pullback)
  • Remove CRSR from watchlist (no thesis)
  • Research next memory cycle timing
9 events
DateTypeEvent
Feb 1 UpdatePortfolio - Main Snapshot Feb 5 UpdateMemory/Semis Feb 2 ScanAI Universe (Expanded) Feb 3 ArticleActions & Alerts Log Feb 3 ScanNVDA Ecosystem (Supply Chain & Adjacent) Feb 4 UpdateAI Infrastructure Feb 4 ArticleActions & Alerts Log Feb 4 ScanAI Scan Feb 5 ArticleActions & Alerts Log

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